Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[winkie]

14 minutes ago, sexton said:

Same customs rules apply from a UK Freeport into the UK.

The brexit nightmare.

[NorthamptonBear]

What have we learned > What happens next (thread title after all)

Some observations about lecture

1. "It will hurt banks and house prices" warning had different effects in different parts of the country and with different kinds of people! "Bring it on" from many
2. Few people have changed their minds
3. Older voters generally leavers, younger remainers/joiners
4. Demographics, not changed minds changed polls
5. Non-tariff barriers much more important in restricting trade
6. Prospect of Brexit restricted economy
7. Few, if any benefits. One mentioned was changes to farming support. I think a few farmers might not agree
8. UK Government actively suppressed publication/analysis of economic effects.
9. Forecasts overwhelmingly negative on how Brexit would affect economy
10. Question from Brexit voter handled with respect (I didn't really get what they were asking/saying).
11. Population were divided along different lines, not left-right economically, more on culture war lines
12. Returning to left right lines more recently
13. Rallying the troops around Brexit less effective and could backfire

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by NorthamptonBear

[rollover]

If you don't give me what I want ..., and fix the problems caused by Brexit ...

Boris Johnson says the UK is ready and willing to unilaterally TEAR UP post-Brexit border checks and red tape in Northern Ireland unless the EU gives ground during talks as the PM urges Brussels to show some 'common sense'

The Prime Minister said that with 'good will and with common sense I believe we can fix' the problems caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

But he said that 'if our friends don’t show the requisite common sense then of course we will trigger Article 16'. 

Daily Mail

[Bob8]

7 hours ago, NorthamptonBear said:

What have we learned > What happens next (thread title after all)

Some observations about lecture

1. "It will hurt banks and house prices" warning had different effects in different parts of the country and with different kinds of people! "Bring it on" from many
2. Few people have changed their minds
3. Older voters generally leavers, younger remainers/joiners
4. Demographics, not changed minds changed polls
5. Non-tariff barriers much more important in restricting trade
6. Prospect of Brexit restricted economy
7. Few, if any benefits. One mentioned was changes to farming support. I think a few farmers might not agree
8. UK Government actively suppressed publication/analysis of economic effects.
9. Forecasts overwhelmingly negative on how Brexit would affect economy
10. Question from Brexit voter handled with respect (I didn't really get what they were asking/saying).
11. Population were divided along different lines, not left-right economically, more on culture war lines
12. Returning to left right lines more recently
13. Rallying the troops around Brexit less effective and could backfire

 

The three criteria that perhaps I alone like are:
- How much has your home town transformed since you were 25? (i.e. age and alientation)
- How much has modern society lost due respect for people you? (i.e. age and alientation)
- Are you skeptical of global warming? (a measure of individualism as a cure for all problems)

They will predict a brexit vote or a Labour Tory vote reliably, without touching on class or economics at all.

My impressions was the similar, so it is reassuring. There was an initial upswing in favour of Leave, as Tory loyalists swung to the party line and a similar group who decided if we are doing it, it must be good. That has been more than balanced out by brexiters dying quicker and new pro-EU people reaching 18.

[skinnylattej]

3 hours ago, rollover said:

If you don't give me what I want ..., and fix the problems caused by Brexit ...

Boris Johnson says the UK is ready and willing to unilaterally TEAR UP post-Brexit border checks and red tape in Northern Ireland unless the EU gives ground during talks as the PM urges Brussels to show some 'common sense'

The Prime Minister said that with 'good will and with common sense I believe we can fix' the problems caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

But he said that 'if our friends don’t show the requisite common sense then of course we will trigger Article 16'. 

Daily Mail

OK trigger Article 16, and then what?  It doesn't solve any of the problems, just creates more.

France can retaliate, EU can sanction, the US can lean on BoJo.

IMV it is impossible solve without lots of fudge.  UK left the EU, therefore a border must exist between the EU and UK.

The border could be between the United Kingdom and Ireland except the UK signed the 'Good Friday' agreement, so no hard border on the island of Ireland.

Neither Ireland or EU would accept a border around the island of Ireland.

So the only option is a border between GB and NI.

BoJo signed the NIP and the TCA, then six weeks later started muttering about being forced to sign and undermined by the previous administration.  No parliament can bind its successor.  Secondly, BoJo is PM thus leads the executive and the legislature.  Either BoJo didn't understand what he was signing, or he didn't care about what he was signing.

 

[thecrashingisles]

3 hours ago, Bob8 said:

The three criteria that perhaps I alone like are:
- How much has your home town transformed since you were 25? (i.e. age and alientation)
- How much has modern society lost due respect for people you? (i.e. age and alientation)
- Are you skeptical of global warming? (a measure of individualism as a cure for all problems)

They will predict a brexit vote or a Labour Tory vote reliably, without touching on class or economics at all.

My impressions was the similar, so it is reassuring. There was an initial upswing in favour of Leave, as Tory loyalists swung to the party line and a similar group who decided if we are doing it, it must be good. That has been more than balanced out by brexiters dying quicker and new pro-EU people reaching 18.

Given that you have exiled yourself from liberal Britain to a more ethnically homogeneous country with policies to the right of Marine Le Pen on immigration, do these insights into the reactionary mindset come from self-reflection?

[Confusion of VIs]

11 hours ago, sexton said:

Same customs rules apply from a UK Freeport into the UK.

The Treasury wasn't a fan of freeports as multiple studies show they delivered no net benefit to the economy and encouraged tax avoidance/evasion. As a result our previously existing Freeports were allowed to expire in 2012   

They are coming back because because of pressure from Brexiters who think they can personally benefit from them, see above. 

[Confusion of VIs]

10 hours ago, NorthamptonBear said:

What have we learned > What happens next (thread title after all)

 

Jacob Rees Mogg, will be interested in this slide which shows the scope for extracting some benefit from Brexit. 

The bits above the line are what we can get if he does his new job well.  

[Staffsknot]

13 hours ago, rollover said:

If you don't give me what I want ..., and fix the problems caused by Brexit ...

Boris Johnson says the UK is ready and willing to unilaterally TEAR UP post-Brexit border checks and red tape in Northern Ireland unless the EU gives ground during talks as the PM urges Brussels to show some 'common sense'

The Prime Minister said that with 'good will and with common sense I believe we can fix' the problems caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol. 

But he said that 'if our friends don’t show the requisite common sense then of course we will trigger Article 16'. 

Daily Mail

Threatening the thing threatened to do about 16 times previously isn't quite the threat our petulant child PM thinks it is. Especially when it will royally bite us on the backside.

Its like threatening to hold his breath unless he gets pudding now

[pig]

10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Jacob Rees Mogg, will be interested in this slide which shows the scope for extracting some benefit from Brexit. 

The bits above the line are what we can get if he does his new job well.  

Finally an image of the ‘sunny uplands’.

[rollover]

Jacob Rees-Mogg may have ‘serious conflict of interest’ in new ‘Brexit opportunities’ job

The MP is a major shareholder and founder of Somerset Capital, an $8 billion investment fund,specialises in "emerging markets" and major economies outside Europe, which the government's Brexit trade deals are focused on.

Worryingly, his new ministerial role fails to even spell out his specific responsibilities, and so the public will be left in the dark as to what exactly Rees-Mogg will be doing on taxpayers’ time, and whether he will stand to benefit personally from any recommendations he makes.

It could pose a serious conflict of interest with his reported intention of axing a thousand regulations when he could stand to benefit personally from the process.

Yahoo

 

 

[NorthamptonBear]

18 minutes ago, rollover said:

Jacob Rees-Mogg may have ‘serious conflict of interest’ in new ‘Brexit opportunities’ job

The MP is a major shareholder and founder of Somerset Capital, an $8 billion investment fund,specialises in "emerging markets" and major economies outside Europe, which the government's Brexit trade deals are focused on.

Worryingly, his new ministerial role fails to even spell out his specific responsibilities, and so the public will be left in the dark as to what exactly Rees-Mogg will be doing on taxpayers’ time, and whether he will stand to benefit personally from any recommendations he makes.

It could pose a serious conflict of interest with his reported intention of axing a thousand regulations when he could stand to benefit personally from the process.

Yahoo

 

 

Follow the money

[NorthamptonBear]

12 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

OK trigger Article 16, and then what?  It doesn't solve any of the problems, just creates more.

France can retaliate, EU can sanction, the US can lean on BoJo.

IMV it is impossible solve without lots of fudge.  UK left the EU, therefore a border must exist between the EU and UK.

The border could be between the United Kingdom and Ireland except the UK signed the 'Good Friday' agreement, so no hard border on the island of Ireland.

Neither Ireland or EU would accept a border around the island of Ireland.

So the only option is a border between GB and NI.

BoJo signed the NIP and the TCA, then six weeks later started muttering about being forced to sign and undermined by the previous administration.  No parliament can bind its successor.  Secondly, BoJo is PM thus leads the executive and the legislature.  Either BoJo didn't understand what he was signing, or he didn't care about what he was signing.

 

It's all logical. Other option is Single Market/Customs Union for GB. Current dishonest, dysfunctional, corrupt UK Gov seems to have a choice between being rule takers and rule breakers. To be fair any future UK or Wengland government would have similar choice. Even harder if Scotland goes independent. Just higher stakes for Scotland during transition period from GB to EU rule adoption, so that may keep Scotland in UK. If it's just Wales & England left, what a mess the English Nationalist party has created.

[slawek]

24 minutes ago, rollover said:

Jacob Rees-Mogg may have ‘serious conflict of interest’ in new ‘Brexit opportunities’ job

The MP is a major shareholder and founder of Somerset Capital, an $8 billion investment fund,specialises in "emerging markets" and major economies outside Europe, which the government's Brexit trade deals are focused on.

Worryingly, his new ministerial role fails to even spell out his specific responsibilities, and so the public will be left in the dark as to what exactly Rees-Mogg will be doing on taxpayers’ time, and whether he will stand to benefit personally from any recommendations he makes.

It could pose a serious conflict of interest with his reported intention of axing a thousand regulations when he could stand to benefit personally from the process.

Yahoo

 

 

They should slightly change his job title, Minister of Brexit Opportunities for Rich.  

[Dweller]

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/watch-reactions-as-tory-mp-for-dover-tells-commons-traffic-jams-are-not-because-of-brexit-311470/?utm_medium=onesignal&utm_source=onesignalwp&utm_campaign=sitepush

Watch: Reactions as Tory MP for Dover tells Commons traffic jams are ‘not because of Brexit’

"Hilarious, has anyone explained to her what Brexit is?", one bemused person responded on Twitter.
..................................................................

Was someone saying yesterday that the 4 hour delay excludes the time waiting in a lorry park for permission to travel to the ports which last week was  averaging 31hrs? 

[slawek]

Desperation. 

"Jacob Rees-Mogg has issued a plea to readers of a tabloid newspaper to write to him if they can identify any possible benefits of Brexit."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-reesmogg-brexit-benefits-the-sun-b2012162.html

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17603553/sun-readers-tell-me-of-eu-regulation-abolished/

Edited February 10, 2022 by slawek

[rollover]

Former Tory PM slams Johnson

Sir John Major, one of the most senior Brexit critics, also lashed out at the handling of problems in Northern Ireland centred on the Northern Ireland Protocol agreed last year.

He branded it 'arguably one of the worst pieces of negotiation we have seen in recent history', adding: 'It helps to understand treaties before you sign them.'

Daily Mail

[Dweller]

43 minutes ago, slawek said:

Desperation. 

"Jacob Rees-Mogg has issued a plea to readers of a tabloid newspaper to write to him if they can identify any possible benefits of Brexit."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-reesmogg-brexit-benefits-the-sun-b2012162.html

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17603553/sun-readers-tell-me-of-eu-regulation-abolished/

"To do my job, I need your wisdom ... I implore you to write to me with the regulations you want abolished – those which make life harder for business businesses, which shut out competition, or simply increase the cost of operating."

FFS sorry but the "wisdom" of Sun readers? 

And surely everything he is referring to here has come in as a consequence of Brexit hasn't it ?? 

[dugsbody]

6 minutes ago, Dweller said:

"To do my job, I need your wisdom ... I implore you to write to me with the regulations you want abolished – those which make life harder for business businesses, which shut out competition, or simply increase the cost of operating."

FFS sorry but the "wisdom" of Sun readers? 

And surely everything he is referring to here has come in as a consequence of Brexit hasn't it ?? 

Humans as large groups are as thick as sh_t but individuals shouldn't be written off. Sun readers may very well be running small businesses and encountered stuff that others may not know about. It will be interesting to hear from them.

It's a shame that we didn't compile this list of things that made life harder before the vote so we could use it as a basis to weigh in or out, but lord knows some of tried desperately hard to get it from brexiters. I wonder if they will respond in the same way to JRM as they did to us:

"You're asking for tangible benefits and I've already told you that being out of the EU is a tangible benefit. You just can't accept that".

[dugsbody]

40 minutes ago, rollover said:

Former Tory PM slams Johnson

Sir John Major, one of the most senior Brexit critics, also lashed out at the handling of problems in Northern Ireland centred on the Northern Ireland Protocol agreed last year.

He branded it 'arguably one of the worst pieces of negotiation we have seen in recent history', adding: 'It helps to understand treaties before you sign them.'

Daily Mail

Well then John Major is stupider than I thought. Johnson understood perfectly well what he was signing, he just needed to do it anyway because he was desperate to get the deal done during the covid times so he could use covid as an excuse for the negative impact.

And not only that, but he can continue to use the "bad" NIP that the "unsensible" EU is enforcing when any reasonable person could see they should not be as a distraction for the usual masses.

[14stFlyer]

5 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Well then John Major is stupider than I thought. Johnson understood perfectly well what he was signing, he just needed to do it anyway because he was desperate to get the deal done during the covid times so he could use covid as an excuse for the negative impact.

And not only that, but he can continue to use the "bad" NIP that the "unsensible" EU is enforcing when any reasonable person could see they should not be as a distraction for the usual masses.

Agree completely. Johnson signed in full knowledge that he could return to it as “unworkable”.  And, politically, it is.  
 

The issue of how to treat Northern Ireland post-Brexit is still not solved.  I continue to hope that it will force the U.K. and EU to consider closer ties and alignment - essentially a customs Union and EEA solution in all but name.  
 

Fingers crossed. 🤞 

[dugsbody]

5 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

The issue of how to treat Northern Ireland post-Brexit is still not solved.  I continue to hope that it will force the U.K. and EU to consider closer ties and alignment - essentially a customs Union and EEA solution in all but name.  

I think that is politically impossible because in the EEA you have FOM.

With our FPTP voting system, enough people will swing away from any party who says it will re-introduce FOM that they will never reach power to make it happen.

 

[rollover]

More than 200,000 pigs are now causing backlog

The NPA says that the situation needs to change 'rapidly', adding that the backlog is now 'well in excess of 200,000 pigs', while 40 independent producers have recently left the industry and 30,000 sows - 10% of the English herd - have been lost. 

Ministers had last October unveiled plans to allow 800 foreign butchers into the UK to tackle the meat crisis, offering six-month emergency visas to avert a mass pig cull caused by a shortage of labour and market disruption. After the Government's plan to attract foreign butchers only brought in around 100 people.  

Daily Mail

[slawek]

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Humans as large groups are as thick as sh_t but individuals shouldn't be written off. Sun readers may very well be running small businesses and encountered stuff that others may not know about. It will be interesting to hear from them.

It's a shame that we didn't compile this list of things that made life harder before the vote so we could use it as a basis to weigh in or out, but lord knows some of tried desperately hard to get it from brexiters. I wonder if they will respond in the same way to JRM as they did to us:

"You're asking for tangible benefits and I've already told you that being out of the EU is a tangible benefit. You just can't accept that".

I doubt most of them is able to tell apart EU and UK regulations. 

[Dweller]

15 hours ago, rollover said:

More than 200,000 pigs are now causing backlog

The NPA says that the situation needs to change 'rapidly', adding that the backlog is now 'well in excess of 200,000 pigs', while 40 independent producers have recently left the industry and 30,000 sows - 10% of the English herd - have been lost. 

Ministers had last October unveiled plans to allow 800 foreign butchers into the UK to tackle the meat crisis, offering six-month emergency visas to avert a mass pig cull caused by a shortage of labour and market disruption. After the Government's plan to attract foreign butchers only brought in around 100 people.  

Daily Mail

FFS at a time when getting food into the country is getting increasingly difficult  it would seem the country cannot even produce it's own  without workers from abroad  who are  desperate enough to live in awful conditions and do everything on the cheap. Then you have the likes of Dyson who is finding that even Malaysians don't want to be subject to labour abuses: 

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/dyson-faces-legal-action-over-forced-labour-conditions-in-malaysia-311655/?utm_medium=onesignal&utm_source=onesignalwp&utm_campaign=sitepush

Vacuum manufacturer Dyson is facing legal action after more than a dozen workers making products and components in Malaysia accused them of labour abuses.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Dweller