Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[debtlessmanc]

Some good news at last

Nissan to create thousands of UK jobs in battery investment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57640001

 

good news for Cornwall too

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/01/full-steam-ahead-for-cornwalls-geothermal-energy-project

Edited July 1, 2021 by debtlessmanc

[Bob8]

26 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Some good news at last

Nissan to create thousands of UK jobs in battery investment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57640001

 

good news for Cornwall too

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/01/full-steam-ahead-for-cornwalls-geothermal-energy-project

It is great news. I did not expect a disaster with brexit, merely that things would be worse.

It does not make brexit a net positive, but it is a positive in itself.

[Bob8]

22 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Don't lie.

Will these measures ban protest that are annoying?

No. The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill does not introduce a new power to ban protests.

Whilst the public nuisance offence can capture behaviour that causes the public or a section of the public to suffer serious annoyance, this is consistent with the existing common law offence of public nuisance and does not connote merely feeling annoyed.

The term “annoyance” has been applied to:

• allowing a field to be used for holding an all-night rave;
• conspiring to switch off the floodlights at a football match so as to cause it to be abandoned; and
• noise, dirt, fumes, noxious smells and vibrations.

You are fielding many, many questions. None of them will change peoples' mind.

I do find it interesting that you, as a intellectually confident person, have seen something to change your mind on brexit. It has happened, so clearly the best has to be made of it. And I do not think the UK will be dramatically worse off in terms of power and economy, only somewhat.

But, there is something that you see that was not evident previously that makes it a net positive and I, and a few others I hope, would be interested in what that is?

[yelims]

3 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

It is great news. I did not expect a disaster with brexit, merely that things would be worse.

It does not make brexit a net positive, but it is a positive in itself.

It shows the importance of Boris implementing the oven ready deal he signed and erecting the border in Irish Sea 

the alternative is no tariff free trade with Eu and hence smaller market for those batteries 

aside https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57666008 only 909 are promised for uk the rest are “in uk supply chain” aka Japan itself

thats on a day thousands of actual jobs disappear as Gap closes

[debtlessmanc]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

It shows the importance of Boris implementing the oven ready deal he signed and erecting the border in Irish Sea 

the alternative is no tariff free trade with Eu and hence smaller market for those batteries 

aside https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57666008 only 909 are promised for uk the rest are “in uk supply chain” aka Japan itself

thats on a day thousands of actual jobs disappear as Gap closes

Gap is continuing to trade on line. It's is the move to online that is affecting the whole retail industry, everywhere 

[slawek]

My view on Brexit nicely worded by someone else

"Deep down Brexit is negative - driven by fear, insecurity and a sense of inadequacy.

Driven by pathetic people, who know they are pathetic

Fear that something is being taken from them, by the easily distinguished "other".

Hence the stream of Daily Mail articles on healthcare tourism, asylum seekers, foreign benefits takers, foreign job takers (who are tax payers and so pay for their healthcare), etc...

Belief that Britain should leading the world stage, yet refusing to engage with other countries because they fear (or know) we are not able or deserving to lead.

Brexit is deep down an act of fear of others, and a complete lack of courage and confidence in Britain.

Judging from my own family, it is the based on appealing to and feeding/preying upon the nastier or more jealous side of people of peoples personalities.

In this sense the "electorate wanting a Nasty Party" actually is more fundamental than Brexit. The trick will be repeated now we've left the EU, feeding Nasty spin and lies about something else to get them worked up and voting.

Johnson and the Brexiters meet their defeat when failing to operate at the G7 and EU level.

They are shown up for the parochial twits they are, pursuing a pointless strategy of non-cooperation and rage at the world for not being allowed to "lead" or automatically get their way.

They wrap themselves in faux patriotism - the Churchill charade. But we all know Churchill, brought into todays environment, would be trying to lead the EU not leave the EU.

"

credit to MarvinH2G2

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/jun/30/martin-rowson-on-boris-johnsons-culture-war-cartoon#comment-150335765

[Bob8]

2 minutes ago, slawek said:

My view on Brexit nicely worded by someone else

"Deep down Brexit is negative - driven by fear, insecurity and a sense of inadequacy.

Driven by pathetic people, who know they are pathetic

Fear that something is being taken from them, by the easily distinguished "other".

Hence the stream of Daily Mail articles on healthcare tourism, asylum seekers, foreign benefits takers, foreign job takers (who are tax payers and so pay for their healthcare), etc...

Belief that Britain should leading the world stage, yet refusing to engage with other countries because they fear (or know) we are not able or deserving to lead.

Brexit is deep down an act of fear of others, and a complete lack of courage and confidence in Britain.

Judging from my own family, it is the based on appealing to and feeding/preying upon the nastier or more jealous side of people of peoples personalities.

In this sense the "electorate wanting a Nasty Party" actually is more fundamental than Brexit. The trick will be repeated now we've left the EU, feeding Nasty spin and lies about something else to get them worked up and voting.

Johnson and the Brexiters meet their defeat when failing to operate at the G7 and EU level.

They are shown up for the parochial twits they are, pursuing a pointless strategy of non-cooperation and rage at the world for not being allowed to "lead" or automatically get their way.

They wrap themselves in faux patriotism - the Churchill charade. But we all know Churchill, brought into todays environment, would be trying to lead the EU not leave the EU.

"

credit to MarvinH2G2

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/jun/30/martin-rowson-on-boris-johnsons-culture-war-cartoon#comment-150335765

I think that is brutally unfair.

I think that many people who grew up in that time when labour was more highly valued think it should be easy to go back to that as it was natural (a generalisation, but boomers and some generation X). Of course, it is not seen as value of labour, more in terms of people being magically harder working, or the right type of working class.

Often, people who are either older, younger, or done better from the modern world think that time has gone.

[dryrot]

4 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Gap is continuing to trade on line. It's is the move to online that is affecting the whole retail industry, everywhere 

And Gap is closing stores all over Europe - not just Brexir Britain 

What would the UK contribution be to the EU when the increase to 2% of GDP is introduced? 2%od £2trillion I think - £40bn per annum. 

How smart we were to leave!

 

[Bob8]

5 minutes ago, dryrot said:

And Gap is closing stores all over Europe - not just Brexir Britain 

What would the UK contribution be to the EU when the increase to 2% of GDP is introduced? 2%od £2trillion I think - £40bn per annum. 

How smart we were to leave!

 

While brexit is bad for the UK economy, it is hard to draw a direct conclusion. While we were in the EU, the same thing happened with C&A and the other way with Marks ans Spencers.

[yelims]

17 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Gap is continuing to trade on line. It's is the move to online that is affecting the whole retail industry, everywhere 

Tell that to thousands who lost their jobs

[hurlerontheditch]

 

so much winning!!!

[yelims]

3 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

While brexit is bad for the UK economy, it is hard to draw a direct conclusion. While we were in the EU, the same thing happened with C&A and the other way with Marks ans Spencers.

I actually agree with you

 

between brexit, Covid and existing trends who knows what was the final straw that broke the camels back.

 

hell my current job in tech could be spun as ultimately automating jobs away but so far the main accomplishment been making customers employees more productive 

[Confusion of VIs]

7 minutes ago, dryrot said:

And Gap is closing stores all over Europe - not just Brexir Britain 

What would the UK contribution be to the EU when the increase to 2% of GDP is introduced? 2%od £2trillion I think - £40bn per annum. 

How smart we were to leave!

 

The Treasury has accepted the OBRs forecast that Brexit will cost 6% of GDP.

So, leaving aside that a large amount of that 2% would come back to the UK, we are 4% down.

On your calc that's an £80bn loss. Any idea where we will find it? 

[Staffsknot]

5 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

And you say I am irrational? The last 150 or so years of European history have all been about the unification of Germany and its dominance of European industry and politics. Its pretty much impossible to understand anything of modern history without understanding that. The EU from its inception until now is all about France's fear of Germany and Germany's embarrassment about its recent history. Watch or read any French media's coverage of international politics, it is an endless series of features about  M Le President having cozy meetings with Chancellor Merkel etc.  They didn't want the smarty pants U.K.involved, it was the smaller countries that did, those smaller countries are now getting treated to the Franco-German axis on speed and they are not keen.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210625-eu-leaders-reject-france-germany-proposal-for-summit-with-putin

Yes I'm now noting you down as irrational.

I rebutted your whole Niall Ferguson case. 

European history has certainly not been dominated by Germany nor German reaction to France at all and again we're into the bit Brexit voters seem to fixate on - Germany.

Kind of forgets the large period of Warsaw Pact nations and how Germany's role would have been the playing field for large powers contesting the Fulda Gap. It had little say or influence east or west.

I think you'll find the dominant player in European nations over last 150 yrs was Victoria and her extended family, ever weakening hereditary peers and Empires and the fact any dominion easily grabbed had been annexed so powers jostled.

Saying its all about Germany and reaction to it is the most simplistic boiled down glazing of European history there is. Seriously I genuinely expected better

[Peter Hun]

On 25/06/2021 at 08:44, slawek said:

Welcome to the UK. He knows someone, chumocracy. It is quite common, not only in the UK.

What is special about the UK is the level of hypocrisy and denial about it.  

You don't need to be elected to get a government job.

[Staffsknot]

33 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I think that is brutally unfair.

I think that many people who grew up in that time when labour was more highly valued think it should be easy to go back to that as it was natural (a generalisation, but boomers and some generation X). Of course, it is not seen as value of labour, more in terms of people being magically harder working, or the right type of working class.

Often, people who are either older, younger, or done better from the modern world think that time has gone.

I think this is spot on. It is what I call Call The Midwife or Heartbeat syndrome - nostalgia for a past that people sit and watch on TV. Why can't it just be like then when everything was rosie and you could get a decent wage as a normal person and live on it... it kinda filters out The Krays much like Richard Curtis does filter out anything cack about London in his work.

A lot of the sentiment seems to be shutting out change and resetting back to how things were.

An analogy is a Good Life style national midlife crisis meaning we will grow & pick our own fruit and be self sufficient. Just when we get to it we realise its bloody hard work, the neighbours are irate at our sudden wild ideas and sometimes have to pitch in to avert self-stupidity, and we're going to be somewhat poorer but not bankrupt. 

I just don't seeing it being as jovial as the show and we're not going to wake up next to Felicity Kendell either.

[debtlessmanc]

22 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Yes I'm now noting you down as irrational.

I rebutted your whole Niall Ferguson case. 

European history has certainly not been dominated by Germany nor German reaction to France at all and again we're into the bit Brexit voters seem to fixate on - Germany.

Kind of forgets the large period of Warsaw Pact nations and how Germany's role would have been the playing field for large powers contesting the Fulda Gap. It had little say or influence east or west.

I think you'll find the dominant player in European nations over last 150 yrs was Victoria and her extended family, ever weakening hereditary peers and Empires and the fact any dominion easily grabbed had been annexed so powers jostled.

Saying its all about Germany and reaction to it is the most simplistic boiled down glazing of European history there is. Seriously I genuinely expected better

Ok you are def irrational and noted down as such,  nothing much happened I. 1870, 1914 and 1940 then? It was all about queen vic?

your rebuttal of Niall Ferguson was a rant about alternative histories that proved nothing. 

Germany is only a fixation in the sense that its unification by Bismarck lead to it dominating Central Europe economically and politically. I have nothing at all against modern Germans or Germany. We used to go camping in Germany every year were my German speaking father would meet up with the Former German POWs he befriended on a Yorkshire farm in 1945

but the EU grew out for coal and steel pact that was specifically formed to prevent Germany and France ever going to war again. That was its foundation. Everyone else is in it for the perks....

[Drat]

14 hours ago, yelims said:

Lol so no positives to be named

But at least now have another measure of brexit fail when immigration resumes after Covid lockdown but from shithole countries instead of people who pay taxes, Tories are salivating at importing half of India 

Take your petty racism away from here please

[pig]

22 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Yes I'm now noting you down as irrational.

I rebutted your whole Niall Ferguson case. 

European history has certainly not been dominated by Germany nor German reaction to France at all and again we're into the bit Brexit voters seem to fixate on - Germany.

Kind of forgets the large period of Warsaw Pact nations and how Germany's role would have been the playing field for large powers contesting the Fulda Gap. It had little say or influence east or west.

I think you'll find the dominant player in European nations over last 150 yrs was Victoria and her extended family, ever weakening hereditary peers and Empires and the fact any dominion easily grabbed had been annexed so powers jostled.

Saying its all about Germany and reaction to it is the most simplistic boiled down glazing of European history there is. Seriously I genuinely expected better

That’s about getting your head lost in narrative. A nation is a ‘story’ of sorts, nationalists are prone to getting lost in the weeds of stories.

Its not to diminish the importance of stories - Blair spun a story of self confidence and pride in uk - and  Britain went for it. But for reasons that don’t need repeating it can go horribly wrong. 

Abstract national entities get cartooned into individuals trapped in a morality play. 

You can veer into kicking out people that spoil the cartoon, deemed not part of the story, and ultimately end up kicking out any part of the future which isn’t already in the past.

 

 

 

[pig]

18 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Ok you are def irrational and noted down as such,  nothing much happened I. 1870, 1914 and 1940 then? It was all about queen vic?

your rebuttal of Niall Ferguson was a rant about alternative histories that proved nothing. 

Germany is only a fixation in the sense that its unification by Bismarck lead to it dominating Central Europe economically and politically. I have nothing at all against modern Germans or Germany. We used to go camping in Germany every year were my German speaking father would meet up with the Former German POWs he befriended on a Yorkshire farm in 1945

but the EU grew out for coal and steel pact that was specifically formed to prevent Germany and France ever going to war again. That was its foundation. Everyone else is in it for the perks....

Do you agree Russia should GTFO of Ukraine and Crimea ?

[Staffsknot]

1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

your rebuttal of Niall Ferguson was a rant about alternative histories that proved nothing

It basically pointed out saying if x didn't happen the future would be different guaranteed because twenty other things won't is cod history and if I'd stuck it down I wouldn't have a history degree. It's Channel 5 grade ****** that can lead to any prediction you want.

The rest of your post picks 3 events in history spanning 150 years. What about the Balkans - you skip the Hapsburgs and Ottomans, the role of Russia, us and our moves in Europe... 

Now here's a one for you often cited as a cause of WW1 - King George & the Tsar's crap relationship with Kaiser Wilhelm, diplomatic faux pas such as offering things the Gov wouldn't sanction and general screw ups making an already insecure and feeling sidelined Kaiser think he was being insulted. In fact Edward was often the one who sorted out things prior to his death, despite being the early 'disappointment' to Victoria.

Now running your timeline - Russo-Ottoman war of 1877-78 involving two great powers trying to refight the Crimean War, Serbian and Bulgarian spin off wars which threatened to drag Austria and Turkey in and frequently needed calming down, God knows how many Balkans and Russian conflicts pre and post WW1, the fact WW2 involved a certain Soviet Union invading Poland along with Germany and the atrocities perpetrated predating German ones actually ( but then we became mates and forgot about that until Iron Curtain ), our two wars in Africa at the turn of the century also impacting European politics, our and French failures to support League of Nation at crucial moments when suited us ie Abyssinia), the 30+ years of Warsaw Pact, Greek-Turkey crises, I could go on.

If you look beyond everyone's fav whipping boy country you'll see us, France and Russia and our interractions had far more impact in those 150 yrs. Indeed to look just at Germany is to be blind to just how much Russia has played in every nation in Eastern, Southern and Central Europe in 150 yrs and is the GCSE Queen Elizabeth / Spanish Armada & WW2 skim read of history.

Just like people like to say ooh Germany was the birth of anti-semitism in Europe - in your timeline we can pick out the Dreyfuss Affair as a shining example of scapegoat a Jewish guy mentality.

If you had your history lessons outside Britain or British historians you'd see just how fixated everything is on WW1 & WW2 and skims loads of history out. British history as taught is largely the bits we won at. 

In fact one of the contributary factors to WW1 - the treaties and defence pacts - were drawn up to prevent the major powers fighting amongst themselves due to us, France & Russia not trusting each other not to spark another Crimean War.

In 150 years Russia has had more influence on those Europeans than Germany did from politics, warfare to ideologies.

I'm not accusing you of anti-German thinking I'm accusing you of being naively blinkered only to the bits of history you know of.

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Staffsknot

[Peter Hun]

4 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Some good news at last

Nissan to create thousands of UK jobs in battery investment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57640001

 

good news for Cornwall too

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/01/full-steam-ahead-for-cornwalls-geothermal-energy-project

I'm indirectly invested in this via Cornish Metal. They will also extract lithium from the brine. The geothermal energy is trivial, 10MW.

[Peter Hun]

4 hours ago, yelims said:

aside https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57666008 only 909 are promised for uk the rest are “in uk supply chain” aka Japan itself

UK supply chain is, by definition, in the UK not Japan.

[hurlerontheditch]

35 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

UK supply chain is, by definition, in the UK not Japan.

will we all get a good deal on the car considering we are subsidising them?

[thecrashingisles]

47 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

It basically pointed out saying if x didn't happen the future would be different guaranteed because twenty other things won't is cod history and if I'd stuck it down I wouldn't have a history degree. It's Channel 5 grade ****** that can lead to any prediction you want.

The rest of your post picks 3 events in history spanning 150 years. What about the Balkans - you skip the Hapsburgs and Ottomans, the role of Russia, us and our moves in Europe... 

Now here's a one for you often cited as a cause of WW1 - King George & the Tsar's crap relationship with Kaiser Wilhelm, diplomatic faux pas such as offering things the Gov wouldn't sanction and general screw ups making an already insecure and feeling sidelined Kaiser think he was being insulted. In fact Edward was often the one who sorted out things prior to his death, despite being the early 'disappointment' to Victoria.

Now running your timeline - Russo-Ottoman war of 1877-78 involving two great powers trying to refight the Crimean War, Serbian and Bulgarian spin off wars which threatened to drag Austria and Turkey in and frequently needed calming down, God knows how many Balkans and Russian conflicts pre and post WW1, the fact WW2 involved a certain Soviet Union invading Poland along with Germany and the atrocities perpetrated predating German ones actually ( but then we became mates and forgot about that until Iron Curtain ), our two wars in Africa at the turn of the century also impacting European politics, our and French failures to support League of Nation at crucial moments when suited us ie Abyssinia), the 30+ years of Warsaw Pact, Greek-Turkey crises, I could go on.

If you look beyond everyone's fav whipping boy country you'll see us, France and Russia and our interractions had far more impact in those 150 yrs. Indeed to look just at Germany is to be blind to just how much Russia has played in every nation in Eastern, Southern and Central Europe in 150 yrs and is the GCSE Queen Elizabeth / Spanish Armada & WW2 skim read of history.

Just like people like to say ooh Germany was the birth of anti-semitism in Europe - in your timeline we can pick out the Dreyfuss Affair as a shining example of scapegoat a Jewish guy mentality.

If you had your history lessons outside Britain or British historians you'd see just how fixated everything is on WW1 & WW2 and skims loads of history out. British history as taught is largely the bits we won at. 

In fact one of the contributary factors to WW1 - the treaties and defence pacts - were drawn up to prevent the major powers fighting amongst themselves due to us, France & Russia not trusting each other not to spark another Crimean War.

In 150 years Russia has had more influence on those Europeans than Germany did from politics, warfare to ideologies.

I'm not accusing you of anti-German thinking I'm accusing you of being naively blinkered only to the bits of history you know of.

However you've conveniently skirted over some aspects of your narrative that support @debtlessmanc's case for the repercussions of German unification being a significant driving force in European history. The Dreyfus affair had a lot to do with French paranoia about German power following the Franco-Prussian war and establishment of the German Empire.