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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Rees-Mogg claims that most of those who said they have confidence in May did so because they are "on her payroll" and called on the prime minister to resign as she doesn't have sufficient support in Parliament.

Apparently the ERG are already thinking about the 'nuclear option' - a non-binding motion of no confidence against their own PM, removing her with backing of Labour, SNP & Lib Dems.

They're not giving up...

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2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Rees-Mogg claims that most of those who said they have confidence in May did so because they are "on her payroll" and called on the prime minister to resign as she doesn't have sufficient support in Parliament.

Apparently the ERG are already thinking about the 'nuclear option' - a non-binding motion of no confidence against their own PM, removing her with backing of Labour, SNP & Lib Dems.

They're not giving up...

They are all mouth and no trousers.  They could not come up with an solid alternative plan.  All they could come up with this is tripe alongside Tufton St mouthpiece Shanker Singham..

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2 hours ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

It mentions 20% -50%  of consignments for physical checks, e.g. :

Appendix F – level of checks List of products subject to veterinary checks and the levels of such checks Category I Fresh meat including offal, and products, of bovine, ovine, caprine, porcine and equine species; Fish products in hermetically sealed containers (stable at ambient temperature), fresh/frozen fish, dried/salted fishery products; Whole eggs, hatching eggs; Lard and rendered fats;Animal casings. Documentary and identity checks - 100 per cent of consignments Physical checks - Not less than 20 per cent of consignments Category II Poultry, rabbit, game (farmed or wild) - meat and products; Processed animal protein for human consumption; Egg products; Milk and milk products for human consumption; Other fisheries products (other than those in category I) and bi-valve molluscs; Honey. Documentary and identity checks - 100 per cent of consignments Physical checks - Not less than 50 per cent of consignments Category III Milk and milk products not for human consumption; Semen, embryos, manure; Gelatin; Frogs’ legs and snails; Bones and bone products; Hides and skins; Bristles, wool, hair and feathers; Horns and horn products, hooves and hoof products------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Does that mean every component of whatever percentage of consignments, or a part of each consignment? I remember working on a project to determine the % of fat in meat pies (?)via real time scanning cameras as chemical analysis was so time consuming it was too infrequently done to inspire confidence.

I would imagine electrical goods would be an absolute nightmare since they contain components from all over the shop.

Re Livestock,  that all sounds like we are going to need a lot more vets. Where are we going to conjure them up from. 

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4 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

OK, we got there at last, you think a hardline Brexiteer is best choice as PM, thank you

I think you're mixing me up with the other poster.

Don't misrepresent what I'm saying. I know that the brexiter way, but please. They won't make the best PM but it's the best choice because it will expose whoever it is for a liar and a fraud. 

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41 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Well f*** me?

Back to my original point, give them the the opportunity then, how do you want to play this?

You want them to fix this, you don't want them to fix this

They cannot fix it but neither can May.

I would have preferred to have a Brexiteer as PM, so that they can be held accountable for whatever they deliver.

It would also have been easier for a committed Brexiteer to call the whole thing off when it became clear it was not possible to deliver anything like the promised Brexit. 

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They cannot fix it but neither can May.

I would have preferred to have a Brexiteer as PM, so that they can be held accountable for whatever they deliver.

It would also have been easier for a committed Brexiteer to call the whole thing off when it became clear it was not possible to deliver anything like the promised Brexit. 

She will continue with the same old rhetoric in the hope that she can convince the punters that her deal is the promised Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit.... God help us :(

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23 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Rees-Mogg claims that most of those who said they have confidence in May did so because they are "on her payroll" and called on the prime minister to resign as she doesn't have sufficient support in Parliament.

Apparently the ERG are already thinking about the 'nuclear option' - a non-binding motion of no confidence against their own PM, removing her with backing of Labour, SNP & Lib Dems.

They're not giving up...

If they did it surely that would have to mean the Conservative party splitting into two separate political parties. How on earth could ERG MPs who just brought down a Conservative government expect to stand as Conservative candidates in their constituencies?

FPTP is making both main Westminster parties dysfunctional. Both the Tories and Labour could do with a good split. but they know it would be electoral suicide to do so.

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41 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

200 Tory Mp's are happy while 20 million plus hold their heads in despair

Ours is not to question what happens inside the Westminster bubble.

According to a survey of party members by Conservative Home,  the sympathies are reversed, with two-thirds wanting Mrs May to stand down.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/our-snap-survey-almost-two-thirds-of-party-members-oppose-may-over-a-third-back-her.html

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Can't stop the 'Bot. :lol:

 

She's going nowhere. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her lead the Conservatives into the 2022 general election.

Her continued run as PM is for the same reason that the withdrawal agreement will eventually get through the Commons: the alternatives are all worse.

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13 hours ago, pig said:

It’s not a prediction of what will happen over the next 30 years, its what would be put on a ballot paper.

Leave would be run by the ERG on condition of full disclosure of their funders and backers, and, particularly if they were going to be involved ideally it would take place after the national and international investigations on Banks and Farage had concluded.

Re the leave plan it’s a often repeated disingenuous evasive answer ‘what is the Remain plan’. We have a defined relationship with the EU.

Re immigration nope. We failed to implement the immigration controls available. That’s why the general debate points to needing to implement them if we Remain.

There are no facts about the future - that is true on both sides. 

Leave will/would be run by parliament and the EU as is the case now. The vote this evening showed the true numbers of the ERG and rebels and they're not as numerous as they pretended to be. Significant yes, but far from a majority. 

It's not disingenuous, nor is it evasive. It's a genuine question. What is the planned direction for the EU over the next 10, 20 and 30 years? Follow that with, is that what the UK wants? Does the EU even want UK on that journey with them? We have a defined relationship for today but what will that look like tomorrow? We could have a defined relationship under WTO tomorrow (well 30th March but you get my point) or we could have May's deal but frankly I'm not sure that's a question that should be plopped out there again. 

We failed only to delay the full open borders (thanks Labour). Freedom of movement is a keystone of membership. I don't for a moment expect immigration to drop to the low tens of thousands but at least we have the option of blocking unskilled. I do however think immigration was the overriding factor but more specifically it was the rate of immigration. The Economist covered an interesting analysis that correlated the Leave vote majority with the rate of change of immigrant populations since enlargement, not the total immigrant populations. One thing that is interesting is the rapid increase in wages since the vote. Causation or coincidence? 

Alas, I babble.

As of this evening I predict an extension of leave date to 29th September and if pressed would probably give good odds on another referendum. It might well look like the ballot you're proposing. 

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6 minutes ago, adarmo said:

There are no facts about the future - that is true on both sides. 

Leave will/would be run by parliament and the EU as is the case now. The vote this evening showed the true numbers of the ERG and rebels and they're not as numerous as they pretended to be. Significant yes, but far from a majority. 

It's not disingenuous, nor is it evasive. It's a genuine question. What is the planned direction for the EU over the next 10, 20 and 30 years? Follow that with, is that what the UK wants? Does the EU even want UK on that journey with them? We have a defined relationship for today but what will that look like tomorrow? We could have a defined relationship under WTO tomorrow (well 30th March but you get my point) or we could have May's deal but frankly I'm not sure that's a question that should be plopped out there again. 

We failed only to delay the full open borders (thanks Labour). Freedom of movement is a keystone of membership. I don't for a moment expect immigration to drop to the low tens of thousands but at least we have the option of blocking unskilled. I do however think immigration was the overriding factor but more specifically it was the rate of immigration. The Economist covered an interesting analysis that correlated the Leave vote majority with the rate of change of immigrant populations since enlargement, not the total immigrant populations. One thing that is interesting is the rapid increase in wages since the vote. Causation or coincidence? 

Alas, I babble.

As of this evening I predict an extension of leave date to 29th September and if pressed would probably give good odds on another referendum. It might well look like the ballot you're proposing. 

Lord Ashcroft has published the findings of a poll of 5000 Brexit voters.  Make of it what you will...

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft  They're all showing on his Twitter feed.

DuHwgSMXcAEj9SE.jpg

 

 

Edited by Dave Beans
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1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

MPs want to keep stalling it so they won't vote May's deal (or at least she didn't put it forward).

MPs want to keep stalling it so vote to keep May.

Tactical.

'May's Deal'. It's a bit like 'Blair's War' - as D. Abbott would always refer to the Iraq debacle. She will remain forever in the history books (now called wikipedia) as the author of our fate, exonerating all the other cretins.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

MPs want to keep stalling it so they won't vote May's deal (or at least she didn't put it forward).

MPs want to keep stalling it so vote to keep May.

Tactical.

I actually slept through the whole thing , have been doing some long hours recently?

Well it is seems pretty clear now, May is going to do what May does best, kicking A50 down the road, because she will not get that deal through and she is making no provisions for a no deal, she has already decided on extending this debacle if need be.

May seems to think her survival skills and her stubbornness to "abandon us" are traits to be admired, she just cannot see she is now imposing herself onto us. The only plus I can give her is that she is not Corbyn so will indeed get my vote in a GE, but with a very heavy heart, a case of do you want to lose your legs are your sight.

 

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8 hours ago, Dorkins said:

 

Her continued run as PM is for the same reason that the withdrawal agreement will eventually get through the Commons: the alternatives are all worse.

Agreed. 17.40 million (living and dead) voted for the withdrawal agreement so it will have to be passed by MP's.

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