The Official Brexit - Remain Thread - All New Threads Will Be Merged Into This One

[GinAndPlatonic]

"If you vote to leave, we`re out"

Michael Portillo : "If you believe that you will believe anything"

Edited June 28, 2016 by GinAndPlatonic

[GrizzlyDave]

I wouldn't be suprised if Boris peddles back on the Brexit after becoming PM. He is a sleazy politician. He's got what he wanted, nobody wants to govern during a crisis, why bother with the negotiations when you can easily undone most of the damage. He just need to spin it appropriately. Many people voting to leave would be happy about this, anything just to get back the old happy days with strong pound and rising house prices.

Brexit will happen. UK dissent must be punished by the EU.

Edited June 28, 2016 by GrizzlyDave

[warpig]

The EU won't renegotiate on the free movement of people, so we have to leave.

[GrizzlyDave]

The EU won't renegotiate on the free movement of people, so we have to leave.

Imagine the horror of a passport control on the train between Brussels and Strasbourg!

[slawek]

Brexit will happen. UK dissent must be punished by the EU.

There is nothing to punish if Boris decides not to trigger Article 50.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

FTSE Up 2%

Persimmon up 7%

Politicians saying they will n ot invoke article 60.

They will not give up without a fight, this will get very messy.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The EU won't renegotiate on the free movement of people, so we have to leave.

We have to leave....the banker friendly politicians seem to think otherwise !!!!

[EssKay]

The EU won't renegotiate on the free movement of people, so we have to leave.

They may renegotiate the eligibility of migrant workers for benefits in a host country though. The ECJ has already made a sympathetic ruling in this direction so it wouldn't take much for it to become official EU policy. If that happens, it could be argued that immigration would naturally come down - hence no need for BREXIT

On a side note, I was chatting to a friend yesterday and came across an interesting theory. He reckons all of this was cooked up between Cameron and Bojo as long ago as the last election. Basically they made a pact to offer up a referendum and take opposing positions. If remain won, no change in the status quo, however if leave won, Cameron would step down and let Bojo take over as PM (Cameron didn't want to serve a full term anyway)

In the second scenario, they completely destroy Labour in the process (who were already riven), play a bit of brinkmanship with the EU to get some key concessions and reforms (e.g. migrant benefits, removal of some eurocrats like Juncker) and backtrack on actually invoking article 50 either through a parliamentary vote (most MPs backed remain) or a stage managed second referendum.

Now personally I think this is crediting Cameron and Bojo with far too much political nous, but it still struck me as an interesting theory, and watching the Portillo video just now I'm beginning to wonder.

Time will tell I guess

Edited June 28, 2016 by EssKay

[Bloo Loo]

The EU won't renegotiate on the free movement of people, so we have to leave.

EU citizens will still have the right to free movement to the UK, as they always have except in times of war.

By free movement, EU means obtaining benefits and avoiding self sufficiency.

[GrizzlyDave]

They may renegotiate the eligibility of migrant workers for benefits in a host country though. The ECJ has already made a sympathetic ruling in this direction so it wouldn't take much for it to become official EU policy. If that happens, it could be argued that immigration would naturally come down - hence no need for BREXIT

On a side note, I was chatting to a friend yesterday and came across an interesting theory. He reckons all of this was cooked up between Cameron and Bojo as long ago as the last election. Basically they made a pact to offer up a referendum and take opposing positions. If remain won, no change in the status quo, however if leave won, Cameron would step down and let Bojo take over as PM (Cameron didn't want to serve a full term anyway)

In the second scenario, they completely destroy Labour in the process (who were already riven), play a bit of brinkmanship with the EU to get some key concessions and reforms (e.g. migrant benefits, removal of some eurocrats like Juncker) and backtrack on actually invoking article 50 either through a parliamentary vote (most MPs backed remain) or a stage managed second referendum.

Now personally I think this is crediting Cameron and Bojo with far too much political nous, but it still struck me as an interesting theory, and watching the Portillo video just now I'm beginning to wonder.

Time will tell I guess

I don't believe any of that for a second.

[Sheeple Splinter]

They may renegotiate the eligibility of migrant workers for benefits in a host country though. The ECJ has already made a sympathetic ruling in this direction so it wouldn't take much for it to become official EU policy. If that happens, it could be argued that immigration would naturally come down - hence no need for BREXIT

On a side note, I was chatting to a friend yesterday and came across an interesting theory. He reckons all of this was cooked up between Cameron and Bojo as long ago as the last election. Basically they made a pact to offer up a referendum and take opposing positions. If remain won, no change in the status quo, however if leave won, Cameron would step down and let Bojo take over as PM (Cameron didn't want to serve a full term anyway)

In the second scenario, they completely destroy Labour in the process (who were already riven), play a bit of brinkmanship with the EU to get some key concessions and reforms (e.g. migrant benefits, removal of some eurocrats like Juncker) and backtrack on actually invoking article 50 either through a parliamentary vote (most MPs backed remain) or a stage managed second referendum.

Now personally I think this is crediting Cameron and Bojo with far too much political nous, but it still struck me as an interesting theory, and watching the Portillo video just now I'm beginning to wonder.

Time will tell I guess

Indeed, perhaps your friend contributes here too? I have lost count the number of times posted predictions on here have turned out to be correct.

[Solitaire]

So Jeremy Hunt is thinking of standing for PM on a renegotiation with the EU and a second referendum. I'm now expecting the Conservative membership to increase dramatically.

Solitaire

Hotel California.

[Bloo Loo]

So Jeremy Hunt is thinking of standing for PM on a renegotiation with the EU and a second referendum. I'm now expecting the Conservative membership to increase dramatically.

Solitaire

Hotel California.

colour me shocked that an MP decides to go against the democratic decision....when it suits...this is the VERY REASON people wanted out of EU>..UNDEMOCRATIC DECISION MAKING.

[canbuywontbuy]

Be upset all you want.

I've got a Stone Age brain, and so have you. And within our shared Stone Age brain is a shared reptile brain, and if yours is dosing you with adrenaline and making you project, that's your problem, and not mine.

Some people who wanted to remain but didn't want to think about the legitimate concerns of the people who wanted to leave might have sought to silence their opponents by labelling them as racists. That's how the Stone Age brain works. We've all got them, 'Brexiteers' and 'Remainiacs' alike.

Immigration is a deeply political matter and if there is so much of it that our politicians cannot convince us that there isn't too much of it, then maybe there is too much of it. I don't know.

However, my post was about populism and liberalism and the idea that a naive notion of democracy won't pass muster. Look at the Labour Party today. The MPs claim the electorate voted for them as individuals and that gives them moral authority, Corbyn and his supporters claim that people voted for the Labour Party and that the Labour Party members' votes for Corbyn gives him moral authority.

Lots of things aren't simple.

I worked in schools before the accession states joined the EU, and I went to a UK school before Maastricht, and if you think it was all wine and roses and top drawer provision before the imagined coming of the immigrants then your recollection of the past differs from mine. In the US they always say that an immigrant is somebody who arrived after you did.

Lots of things aren't simple, I agree. But, hey - we are where we are. People vote the way they vote. The political class reacts the way it reacts. We can make observations on it, but they don't change anything.

As for schools, I went to school through the late 70s and 80s and I never said it was wine and roses then, but I do know in specific parts of the UK - including Northampton where I live - there's a lot of pressure on school places in current times. My kids' school is a converted office block with no real playground to speak of (a bit of tarmac). The problem with such a free movement of people is that people tend NOT to gather in completely uniform numbers throughout a country - there are hotspots like Northampton. This can cause problems that are simply to do with resources, not "the other" or racism. No different if everyone in Northampton invited their extended families to live here and added X% to the population. It's purely a numbers/resource/services thing.

Edited June 28, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[Solitaire]

Jeremy Hunt - stalking horse?

[GrizzlyDave]

Hunt wants Norway deal with restrictions on free movement.

But Norway has a shit deal. It has to implement all the EU law with no say over it.

****** that shit.

[spunko2010]

Hunt is deeply unpopular with the left. A difficult horse to back even if he'll reneg on democracy when it suits them.

Sadly only Tory members who signed up more than 3 months ago will be eligible to vote.

Go David Davis!

[cock-eyed octopus]

On the business side of things, I can't imagine anything significant would change for a while Digby Jones' Airbus wings argument seems pretty convincing to me. But I suppose longer term EU countries would be ordered to source product from elsewhere to the UK. Obviously we would follow suit, & stop sourcing from the EU (I would imagine there are plenty of firms in the USA, China & elsewhere willing to fill the gap).

So the problem is: who can we export to? What are the longer term prospects for selling outside the EU? The government needs to have a long discussion with a lot of businesses to plot a way forward.

It comes down to whether you feel we can survive as a trading nation; I think we can, but then I'm a bit of an optimist at heart.

(I know this is all blindingly obvious, but the essential reality seems to have got lost in all the brouhaha).

[GrizzlyDave]

Hunt is deeply unpopular with the left. A difficult horse to back even if he'll reneg on democracy when it suits them.

Sadly only Tory members who signed up more than 3 months ago will be eligible to vote.

Go David Davis!

Davis is 66/1 ?

[spunko2010]

All the more reason to try your hand GrizzlyDave

[Bloo Loo]

Hunt wants Norway deal with restrictions on free movement.

But Norway has a shit deal. It has to implement all the EU law with no say over it.

****** that shit.

That is because Norway is weak minded in the political classes, who deal not for the interest of Norway, but for themselves...jobs in the EU when they are sacked for betrayal etc etc.

The Superstate EU encourages traitors to National interests with bribery...a default corruption.

[doomed]

Hunt is deeply unpopular with the left. A difficult horse to back even if he'll reneg on democracy when it suits them.

Sadly only Tory members who signed up more than 3 months ago will be eligible to vote.

Go David Davis!

I class myself as right leaning but could never bring myself to vote for Jeremy Hunt. I still don't understand how he got away with the whole Murdoch/Sky fiasco.

If they put some corporate stooge in charge I will either not bother voting, or vote Corbyn to try and inflict maximum carnage.

[FreeTrader]

On the business side of things, I can't imagine anything significant would change for a while Digby Jones' Airbus wings argument seems pretty convincing to me. But I suppose longer term EU countries would be ordered to source product from elsewhere to the UK. Obviously we would follow suit, & stop sourcing from the EU (I would imagine there are plenty of firms in the USA, China & elsewhere willing to fill the gap).

So the problem is: who can we export to? What are the longer term prospects for selling outside the EU? The government needs to have a long discussion with a lot of businesses to plot a way forward.

It comes down to whether you feel we can survive as a trading nation; I think we can, but then I'm a bit of an optimist at heart.

(I know this is all blindingly obvious, but the essential reality seems to have got lost in all the brouhaha).

The share of UK exports to non-EU countries has been steadily increasing for some time now, and this is despite significant enlargement of the EU.

...and since 2011, exports to the EU have actually declined in nominal terms, down from £242bn to £223bn:

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-trade-with-the-eu-and-beyond/

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Did anyone see Boris on the news saying something like "the £ is stable, the market is stable".

He didnt look like he believed a word of it

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Breaking news this minute on BBC..

Junker is yet again pushing Britain into making it's mind up and letting the EU know it's plans. There will be no hoping playing the waiting game and hoping an event will save the Remainers like they doing right now.

Junker is an ar*e, but he is doing the Brexiters DEMOCRACY a massive favour right now

Edited June 28, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere