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Everything posted by FreeTrader

  1. Thanks Democorruptcy, and to moonriver as well. I've never really been away, but have very little free time to post these days.
  2. The Indy article uses data from the LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index for September 2017, which was released today. This is an index that has never received much attention on this board, although it's one that I have often referenced in the past as it uses Land Reg data and is more timely than the ONS index (although it is still somewhat laggy on a regional basis). http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release September 17.pdf With this index, house prices in England & Wales fell 0.1% in September and they have now fallen for six months in a row, with the annual rate just +1.3%. This is the lowest annual figure since April 2012 and there's a distinct possibility that the annual growth figure will turn negative next month. Meanwhile Greater London is showing an annual fall in the year to August 2017 of -0.7%, the first negative print on the LSL/Acad index since June 2011. The regional figures only go up to August because volume data are currently too low to draw any firm conclusions beyond this date, but LSL/Acad say that transactions submitted thus far are indicative of a further 2.7% fall in Greater London during September. Looking at the Greater London table, the average price peaked at £628,394 in March 2017 and stood at £584,467 in August. If the indicated 2.7% fall in Sept 2017 verifies, this will take the London average down to £568,686, which will be 9.5% below peak. Note that LSL/Acad's index is showing a greater fall in London than the official ONS index. This is because ONS uses geometric averaging, which will give more weight to lower-priced properties. LSL/Acad uses arithmetic averaging, which means that falls in higher-priced properties will pull the average down more than a geometrically weighted series.
  3. The housing white paper wasn't released yesterday, but it's expected before the end of the year. Meanwhile Sajid Javid continues to tease with claims that the white paper proposals will lead to a step change in new build supply (as I said above, I'm not holding my breath). DCLG has just published a speech he made today at the National House Building Council annual lunch. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/building-the-homes-we-need "That’s why we’ll soon be publishing a White Paper setting out reforms that will get more of the right homes built in the right places. "I’m not talking about small tweaks, building a thousand homes here or a thousand homes there. "I’m talking about major, long-lasting reform that will carry on delivering homes well after I’ve left office."
  4. Countrywide Plc released a trading update this morning. From the RNS: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/CWD/13045032.html The share price is down over 10%.
  5. Paragon Group has released final results this morning. BTL dropped from 89% of new lending in financial year 2015 to 70.5% in 2016, and the BTL lending pipeline is 55% down year-on-year. http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/PAG/13043668.html
  6. There have been hints that the Government's white paper on housing will be released alongside the Autumn Statement. We've been promised by Sajid Javid that the paper will outline 'radical' measures to boost housing supply, but I'm not holding my breath.
  7. From the FT: Canada walks out on EU trade talks Chrystia Freeland, Canada's trade minister: "It seems obvious for me, and Canada, that the EU is not able to have an international agreement even with a country which has such European values as Canada, and even with a country so kind, and so patient as Canada."
  8. Thanks HAM, I appreciate the feedback. That didn't work at first either, but it seems it was because I was attempting to post a .GIF image (which I've always done for lossless compression). I've now posted as a .PNG which is the format I'll use in future for charts.
  9. Oops. Not sure that this was part of the plan. Unlike the FLS scheme, the ONS has decided that loans to the financial corporate sector under the new Term Funding Scheme (TFS) are to be treated as illiquid assets and therefore should not be offset against the central bank reserves which are created to fund the loans (which are a public sector liability). As a result, the impact of the TFS on Public Sector Net Debt will be to increase it by the value of the central bank reserves created. This decision will be reflected in the Public Finances Release on 22 November 2016. http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/economicstatisticsclassificationarticle/statisticaltreatmentofthebankofenglandstermfundingschemeintheuknationalaccountsandpublicsectorfinances
  10. Friday, 21 October 2016 HMRC: Monthly Residential Property Transactions, September 2016 Seasonally adjusted residential transactions totalled 93,130 in September, down 4.3% on August and down 11.3% on September 2015. This is a very weak number, but no surprise to those who have been following the trend in mortgage approvals.
  11. 'Expert' Mark Alexander dispenses advice to This Is Money readers: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-3848280/Worried-ll-make-buy-let-pay-amid-tax-assault-One-expert-believes-s-way-pay-NO-tax-all.html
  12. Q3 Trading update: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/FOXT/13005440.html
  13. Consultation published today by DCLG: Houses in multiple occupation and residential property licensing reforms
  14. Two Financial Times articles that indicate which way the wind is blowing regarding government housing policy (non-subscribers will hopefully be able to access via Google): Sept 13: Tories shift priority from mass home ownership Sept 30: UK still open to European builders after Brexit, says Javid From the second article:
  15. Letter from Hammond to Carney confirming Help to Buy: Mortgage Guarantee scheme will close to new loans at the end of 2016 as planned: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/556650/letter_from_chancellor_to_bank_of_england_governor.pdf
  16. The growth rate of unsecured consumer credit has been high recently, but the nominal amount outstanding remains below the levels seen at the time of the financial crash. At end-August 2016 for example, the seasonally adjusted amount outstanding (excluding student loans) stood at £188bn. In September 2008 it was £208bn. Compare this with secured lending, which stood at £1311bn in Aug 2016 and £1183bn in Sep 2008.
  17. Thursday, 29 September 2016 Bank of England: Money and Credit - August 2106 Seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals for house purchase totalled 60,058 in August, 1.4% down on July and 16.0% down on August 2015. This is the lowest approvals number since November 2014. --------------------------- DCLG: Help to Buy (Equity Loan scheme) and Help to Buy: NewBuy statistics: Data to 30 June 2016, England DCLG: Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee scheme Quarterly Statistics
  18. Bank of England: Press release: PRA issues buy-to-let underwriting standards expectations Underwriting standards for buy-to-let mortgage contracts - PS28/16 Underwriting standards for buy-to-let mortgage contracts – SS13/16
  19. From October 2013 the Land Reg has been recording 'Additional Price Paid' transactions in its database and for some time now these have been included in its monthly price-paid data releases. These transactions include "transfers under a power of sale/repossessions, buy-to-lets (where they can be identified by a Mortgage) and transfers to non-private individuals." As a consequence, if the Wilsons have sold properties to a corporate entity then they should show up in the Land Reg data in due course. So far there is no evidence of a block transaction taking place (even of just 20 or so Wilson properties, let alone hundreds).
  20. In case you missed it, Gavin Barwell MP, Minister of State for housing and planning, gave a speech to the National Housing Federation on Monday which was published by DCLG yesterday. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/national-housing-federation-september-2016 Makes all the right noises: Then gives some hope: ...but ultimately doesn't indicate that the government's strategy on housing is going to materially change. However I'll reserve judgement until Theresa May's true colours are revealed in the Autumn Statement.
  21. Well, the biggest faller on the FTSE 250 today is McCarthy & Stone, down 11.5%. The company gave a trading update this morning and warned of buyer softness since its prior report on 29 June. Reservations have recently been lower than in the first 9 months of the year, and cancellations have been at higher levels. Housebuilders sold off across the board on the news, although prices have largely recovered since.
  22. There was a time when you'd see a headline like that and reflexively think that a 100-home development had been mothballed. It's just 7 houses on the site of the former Barnes Police Station.
  23. Friday, 2 September 2016 Markit/CIPS: UK Construction PMI, August 2016 Construction input prices rose at the fastest pace for over five years in August - respondents cited exchange rate depreciation as the primary cause. Meanwhile construction activity only showed a marginal decline in August, recovering somewhat from July's steep fall.
  24. Thursday, 1 September 2016 Markit/CIPS: UK Manufacturing PMI, August 2016 UK Manufacturing PMI posts 53.3 in August against expectations of 49.0, with weaker sterling boosting orders and hiring. The month-on-month increase was the joint-greatest in the near 25-year history of the survey.
  25. The fugliest properties that have ever featured on this thread IMO. Here's the holiday let promo video for number 1. Enticing... ...but they neglect to show the street view:
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