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FreeTrader

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  1. Thanks Democorruptcy, and to moonriver as well. I've never really been away, but have very little free time to post these days.
  2. The Indy article uses data from the LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index for September 2017, which was released today. This is an index that has never received much attention on this board, although it's one that I have often referenced in the past as it uses Land Reg data and is more timely than the ONS index (although it is still somewhat laggy on a regional basis). http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release September 17.pdf With this index, house prices in England & Wales fell 0.1% in September and they have now fallen for six months in a row, with the annual rate just +1.3%. This is the lowest annual figure since April 2012 and there's a distinct possibility that the annual growth figure will turn negative next month. Meanwhile Greater London is showing an annual fall in the year to August 2017 of -0.7%, the first negative print on the LSL/Acad index since June 2011. The regional figures only go up to August because volume data are currently too low to draw any firm conclusions beyond this date, but LSL/Acad say that transactions submitted thus far are indicative of a further 2.7% fall in Greater London during September. Looking at the Greater London table, the average price peaked at £628,394 in March 2017 and stood at £584,467 in August. If the indicated 2.7% fall in Sept 2017 verifies, this will take the London average down to £568,686, which will be 9.5% below peak. Note that LSL/Acad's index is showing a greater fall in London than the official ONS index. This is because ONS uses geometric averaging, which will give more weight to lower-priced properties. LSL/Acad uses arithmetic averaging, which means that falls in higher-priced properties will pull the average down more than a geometrically weighted series.
  3. The housing white paper wasn't released yesterday, but it's expected before the end of the year. Meanwhile Sajid Javid continues to tease with claims that the white paper proposals will lead to a step change in new build supply (as I said above, I'm not holding my breath). DCLG has just published a speech he made today at the National House Building Council annual lunch. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/building-the-homes-we-need "That’s why we’ll soon be publishing a White Paper setting out reforms that will get more of the right homes built in the right places. "I’m not talking about small tweaks, building a thousand homes here or a thousand homes there. "I’m talking about major, long-lasting reform that will carry on delivering homes well after I’ve left office."
  4. Countrywide Plc released a trading update this morning. From the RNS: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/CWD/13045032.html The share price is down over 10%.
  5. FreeTrader

    Buy To Let Finance Watch

    Paragon Group has released final results this morning. BTL dropped from 89% of new lending in financial year 2015 to 70.5% in 2016, and the BTL lending pipeline is 55% down year-on-year. http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/PAG/13043668.html
  6. There have been hints that the Government's white paper on housing will be released alongside the Autumn Statement. We've been promised by Sajid Javid that the paper will outline 'radical' measures to boost housing supply, but I'm not holding my breath.
  7. From the FT: Canada walks out on EU trade talks Chrystia Freeland, Canada's trade minister: "It seems obvious for me, and Canada, that the EU is not able to have an international agreement even with a country which has such European values as Canada, and even with a country so kind, and so patient as Canada."
  8. FreeTrader

    Sundry Statistics Releases

    Thanks HAM, I appreciate the feedback. That didn't work at first either, but it seems it was because I was attempting to post a .GIF image (which I've always done for lossless compression). I've now posted as a .PNG which is the format I'll use in future for charts.
  9. FreeTrader

    The Bank Of England Clueless Thread

    Oops. Not sure that this was part of the plan. Unlike the FLS scheme, the ONS has decided that loans to the financial corporate sector under the new Term Funding Scheme (TFS) are to be treated as illiquid assets and therefore should not be offset against the central bank reserves which are created to fund the loans (which are a public sector liability). As a result, the impact of the TFS on Public Sector Net Debt will be to increase it by the value of the central bank reserves created. This decision will be reflected in the Public Finances Release on 22 November 2016. http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/economicstatisticsclassificationarticle/statisticaltreatmentofthebankofenglandstermfundingschemeintheuknationalaccountsandpublicsectorfinances
  10. FreeTrader

    Sundry Statistics Releases

    Friday, 21 October 2016 HMRC: Monthly Residential Property Transactions, September 2016 Seasonally adjusted residential transactions totalled 93,130 in September, down 4.3% on August and down 11.3% on September 2015. This is a very weak number, but no surprise to those who have been following the trend in mortgage approvals.
  11. 'Expert' Mark Alexander dispenses advice to This Is Money readers: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-3848280/Worried-ll-make-buy-let-pay-amid-tax-assault-One-expert-believes-s-way-pay-NO-tax-all.html
  12. Q3 Trading update: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/FOXT/13005440.html
  13. Consultation published today by DCLG: Houses in multiple occupation and residential property licensing reforms
  14. FreeTrader

    Government to end Help to Buy

    Two Financial Times articles that indicate which way the wind is blowing regarding government housing policy (non-subscribers will hopefully be able to access via Google): Sept 13: Tories shift priority from mass home ownership Sept 30: UK still open to European builders after Brexit, says Javid From the second article:
  15. Letter from Hammond to Carney confirming Help to Buy: Mortgage Guarantee scheme will close to new loans at the end of 2016 as planned: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/556650/letter_from_chancellor_to_bank_of_england_governor.pdf
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