Guest_northshore_* Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 (edited) Any guess on what the big resistance price for oil could be? Xmas 2008 closing low (bloomberg) was $32.4 for WTI spot ($35.3 for nymex future), $34.1 for Brent spot ($37.6 for future). Edit: Oh resistance - no idea. Edited August 24, 2015 by northshore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Great stuff guys and girls, keep it coming. I love a good DOOM thread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Don't know it, but Margin Call from 2011 is very similar. "Sell everything on the book by lunchtime, whatever the price. I want 60% gone by eleven at the latest. " etc. Be first. Be smarter. Or cheat. Gotta check that out. I wonder on how many trading floors in the world, this exact conversation is happening right now. ******, I would love to be a fly on the wall there. These guys must be shitting themselves right now. If things get ugly we might have more of this: http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20080915&t=2&i=5997569&w=&fh=545px&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2008-09-15T155818Z_01_N15469897_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Great stuff guys and girls, keep it coming. I love a good DOOM thread! 25 more minutes to go. Making myself a cup of tea now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butthead Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I foresee a QE programme so big that it makes the ones we have seen so far look puny The system as it is right now needs inflation and I think there is a view amongst those holding the levers that QE can make inflation happen I agree, but there's no not much political cover for giving more money to "bankers" so it will have to be sold to us as a "QE for the people". Could be as simple as giving everyone £x, or perhaps some arbitrary debt relief program rescuing (!) people in debt so they can in turn spend and stimulate the economy, or it could be... I think the Yanks will QE4 and QE4 will go into public spending on infrastructure - bridges, roads, power lines, railways, oil storage, oil pipes, etc, etc. Commodities will do well. The UK will probably ramp up house prices. Currencies will suffer regardless. The end game, no matter how we get there, is destruction of currencies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I agree, but there's no not much political cover for giving more money to "bankers" so it will have to be sold to us as a "QE for the people". Could be as simple as giving everyone £x, or perhaps some arbitrary debt relief program rescuing (!) people in debt so they can in turn spend and stimulate the economy, or it could be... Currencies will suffer regardless. The end game, no matter how we get there, is destruction of currencies. What currencies though, some of them, or all of them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Clearly savers would be the losers....paper money gaining value will not be tolerated by central bankers. Hmm.. well it's better than your ripple to your 'no-boom' area. Day after day it amazes me you get people (everywhere) who just accept chronic HPI, year after year, decade after decade (and then held in some areas at peak).... all smug on the owner side. And so many who can't imagine that savers will ever find themselves getting a similar position in a market change... with the value of their savings ballooning vs collapsing silly value assets. I note a small bungalow has just gone under offer a couple of doors down from where I live, the asking was 370k and it has been on for about a year. I do think this suggests the ripple is finally reaching the North Midlands. I didn't expect it to sell, but actually there isn't that much left for sale at the moment in my village near Nottingham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 25 more minutes to go. Making myself a cup of tea now. Beginning to feel a bit like Zerohedge over here (so many false alarms, but of course, the inevitable is the inevitable...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I think the Yanks will QE4 and QE4 will go into public spending on infrastructure - bridges, roads, power lines, railways, oil storage, oil pipes, etc, etc. Commodities will do well. The UK will probably ramp up house prices. Stimulus has to be carefully targeted else it's wasteful. TV News the other day suggested US forest firefighters had spent $100M in a week - their source must have got that wrong. There's $Trillions in US prime housing, at super high values, that needs new debt on it - for glory times for bankers. Now US banks have smoothed out their positions to other market participants, including REITS. -The same kind of public works spending that was very productive in the last depression would be a waste today. Lots of new highways, for example, would not pay off as they did in the past. Improvement of highways had a dramatic effect beginning in the 1930s in increasing the number of autos in use and amplifying other activity that depended on autos, like building of suburbs and shopping centres. There will be much more modest effects today. The number of autos in use is not likely to go up no matter how many roads are built. Congestion can be much more efficiently handled by peak load pricing than by pouring more concrete. -Even during the last depression, when industrialism was still advancing to its mature phase, political efforts to "stimulate" the economy usually involved subsidising the faltering sectors of industry and impeding the emerging sectors. This tendency to retard is bound to be more pronounced because of much more frightening impacts of information technology in reducing economies to scale, reducing the demand for unskilled labour, breaking down the barriers between occupations, and shifting distribution of income toward the better educated. -Investment in the "industrial base" in an attempt to preserve high wage jobs for voters with low skill are destined to show meager returns. They are force-feeding more capital into a declining sector. For example, plans to create "manufacturing extension centres" modeled on the agricultural extension centres of the last century are no more likely to halt the decline of manufacturing than agricultural extension services were to reverse the decline of farming. -The reason that manufacturing is in decline is not that private business is unaware of how to manufacture, but because information technology is supplanting industrial technology as the main area of value-added-activity. -Redistribution diminishes incentives to save, while reducing the capital of those who do most of the saving. A common feature of all stimulative initiatives, especially those that involve little but income redistribution, without a substantial component, is that they expand government debt. This runs down the national balance sheet, increasing the debt burden without increasing earning capacity. In logic, this means a deeper depression in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 25 more minutes to go. Making myself a cup of tea now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=nXkNE5pKkiI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 Check out what is happening to USD EUR and USD YEN. WHAT THE ******!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 The problem from an HPC point of view is that the more market crashes we have, might encourage more people to put their money in houses instead of shares. House prices are decided by the amount of lending available. An HPC needs a credit crunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Hmm.. well it's better than your ripple to your 'no-boom' area. Day after day it amazes me you get people (everywhere) who just accept chronic HPI, year after year, decade after decade (and then held in some areas at peak).... all smug on the owner side. And so many who can't imagine that savers will ever find themselves getting a similar position in a market change... with the value of their savings ballooning vs collapsing silly value assets. The half share of the house is less than 30% of my balance sheet, as I've mentioned to you before. You're preaching to the converted, I'm very much a saver and don't believe in value in the housing market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Clearly savers would be the losers....paper money gaining value will not be tolerated by central bankers. Why would savers be the only ones to lose.........why savers getting only 1.5% are not losing in real terms yet.... QE so far has not created inflation apart from volatile stocks and property in some places..... there is low consumer demand....also QE by only one or two countries creates world imbalances......lots of money is still being made on fast trading price volatilities...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 FTSE 5850 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 The problem from an HPC point of view is that the more market crashes we have, might encourage more people to put their money in houses instead of shares. House prices are decided by the amount of lending available. An HPC needs a credit crunch. What money? Most people borrowed to enter the property Ponzi, that is one of the main reasons we are where we are? China driven collapse will cause the credit crunch of all credit crunches anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 14 minutes to go and still now FED announcement. Hold on there, are they going to let the "market" discover true prices of equities? Thats just weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butthead Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 What currencies though, some of them, or all of them? Well some more than others..! Currencies of countries with large debt and trade deficits like the US and UK will surely be hammered. The effect on countries that export and have little debt will probably be less, relatively speaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Paging R.K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doomed Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 They will try to print their way out of this as they really have no other choice now they have gone down this path. Just look at the amount of wealth that is being destroyed that has been promised to people in the future; does anyone really think they will turn round and say sorry about that it's all gone. The easiest way out will be to pay out the nominal amounts promised by devaluing the currencies, so that is what they will do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Damian McBride (Gormless Clown's advisor) seems to have gone Full Tin Foil Hat. Never go Full Tin Foil Hat. Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work. Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping. Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to. we were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn't worked), and what's coming is on 20 times that scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeutonicKnight Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Sterling is in freefall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Yep, started to listen to them myself in the early 80`s, saw them at the Edinburgh Playhouse in 1982, autographs and long chat with the fans out the back (Angus) Those early albums from the mid to late 70`s were literally life changing, as this debt bubble implosion may turn out to be for many who leveraged up to play in the casino...... I saw them in Oct 82 for the first time then again at Donnington 84 (missed Donnington in 81). However I always lament not seeing them in 79 with Scott. I also missed out on Van Halen supporting Sabbath in 78 and Queen in 1980. Blame my parents for 78 and 79...blame me for 80 and 81. How does this all tie in with HPC? Lesson learnt is to live life as it happens, not nose to the grindstone with a hefty mortgage to pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Damian McBride (Gormless Clown's advisor) seems to have gone Full Tin Foil Hat. Never go Full Tin Foil Hat. Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work. Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping. Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to. we were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn't worked), and what's coming is on 20 times that scale. I have an air rifle, chickens in the back garden, and a couple of tins of beans in the cupboard. Bring it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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