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Guest_northshore_*

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Everything posted by Guest_northshore_*

  1. I've used Excel Currencies, but whoever you use first make sure your UK bank will clear larger sums in time to retain agreed exchange rate.
  2. Was really just to highlight the universal language of vigilance.
  3. Only a matter of time for higher property taxes there and here in my opinion. It will come with a greater regional over central focus, but that's likely to mean a widening of price and income disparities between rich and expensive areas that can afford to maintain subsidies vs poorer and less expensive that can't - because population concentrations and infrastructure will still be capitalised into land prices. Might even out over time, but will take a very long time.
  4. http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-excuse-to-tax-the-family-home-for-which-states-have-been-waiting-20151202-gldbyy.html
  5. I'm not sure why exchanges on specifics with BU lead to this familar response on stretched generalities from the BU + Neverwhere and Venger HPC police, but I'm tired of it and have nothing to add.
  6. I haven't, this was a thread about opinions on the financial stability report: "...You want me to worry about the danger of hoping that things have changed. Things have changed. Go back to 2014 and find me some evidence...There comes a point where your wishes for fantasy overnight transformations of institutions that have grown up over hundreds of years and a relentless cynicism about incremental change, coupled with gathering about yourself the garb of the voice of reason, begs a simple question - are you Jeremy Corbyn? If you are, where do I claim my £5." I share your view on almost everything land and money related Neverwhere, but we've been down this road before and I don't wish to do it again.
  7. I don't want you to do anything. The only thing I'd like, but don't expect, you and others to do is stop forming make-believe narratives of other people's opinions to justify your own and make yourself feel better on a forum. Whatever my wishes are I don't do that because it's petty and unjustifiably hubristic.
  8. Words form stories and lies as well as truths. I'm all for hope but without commensurate housing action and effect it can be a dangerous thing.
  9. Extending expectations for today's financial stability report to life philosophy might be a tad melodramatic. Edit: By the way you should watch the HoL Housing Committee meeting today, I think you'd 'enjoy' it: http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a2ece60a-e20e-4718-84f1-30a9ff6541bd
  10. I wasn't realistically hoping for anything. But otherwise I hope for a citizen's income, zero income tax, lvt, monetary reform, equality of opportunity and someone to nuke the rentier establishment from orbit, just to be sure.
  11. I expected nothing as explained previously. What were you hoping for?
  12. The FPC stands ready to take action if necessary to protect and enhance financial stability, using its powers of recommendation.
  13. I linked to the Committee hearing earlier: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207062-economics-of-the-uk-housing-market-enquiry-house-of-lords/page-2#entry1102837619 Anyone who thinks MP's/Lords don't know or haven't heard every rational argument made here should find time to watch it.
  14. Theoretically: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/205534-tax-relief-on-buy-to-let-mortgage-interest/page-47#entry1102752562
  15. Lords Economic Affairs Committee hearing on Economics of the United Kingdom Housing Market (Witnesses: Dame Kate Barker, author of the Barker Review of Housing Supply; Martin Wolf, Journalist, Financial Times; Christopher Walker, Head of Housing, Planning and Urban Policy, Policy Exchange): http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a2ece60a-e20e-4718-84f1-30a9ff6541bd Currently (~16:00) Q&A on LVT - Q by Lord Monks (Martin Wolf talking a lot of sense, Kate Barker concerned about builders making money if permissioned land is taxed, a concern unrelated to her position on the Taylor Wimpey board of directors, Christopher Walker's opinion is what one would expect from a Policy Exchange spokesperson). Edit: I think the whole thing is worth listening to - if only for a better idea of wider policy knowledge, opinion (and bullsh!t) at every level.
  16. Season's Greetings from HM Government! Open today's door for a treat.
  17. http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/b2l-tax-relief-cut-prompts-barclays-to-increase-rental-cover-ratio/ "From 7 December, Barclays’ rental cover ratio will increase from 125 per cent to 135 per cent for all new applications. There will be no other changes to the affordability calculation, with the affordability rate remaining at 5.79 per cent..."
  18. FRBSF (US) - What's Different about the latest Housing Boom? "After peaking in 2006, the median U.S. house price fell about 30%, finally hitting bottom in late 2011. Since then, house prices have rebounded strongly and are nearly back to the pre-recession peak. However, conditions in the latest boom appear far less precarious than those in the previous episode. The current run-up exhibits a less-pronounced increase in the house price-to-rent ratio and an outright decline in the household mortgage debt-to-income ratio—a pattern that is not suggestive of a credit-fueled bubble ... Nevertheless, given that housing booms and busts can have significant and long-lasting effects on employment and other parts of the economy, policymakers and regulators must remain vigilant to prevent a replay of the mid-2000s experience."
  19. Buffers and adequate equity ratio: Purpose is to increase bank resilience, not restrain credit growth. Only marginal demand/growth impact to take out tail risk. Improved Bank resolution prospects with future real loss absorbing capacity. Stress tests demonstrate system resilience. Analysis/Basel won't change (increase) overall levels of capital in the system, it's a distributional thing. Capital Framework Supplement Macro prudential vs monetary policy: Different time horizons and reaction functions for varying risks. Not that capital buffers give more leeway to maintain low interest rates, but serve different purposes with likely impacts relevance to remits; where base rate centres on inflation target and would have greater effect on funding costs. BTL: About ensuring underwriting standards are maintained. PRA will review this. Expect Treasury tax changes to impact, so assess in the round in terms of underwriting standard and effect on landlords in event of stress scenarios (house price/interest rate shock). Levels of BTL ~15% rising back to pre-crash levels quickly but not sure how sensitive BTL market is to interest rates. Don't observe a problem at these rates; most own 1 or 2 properties and many are basic tax rate payers. MPC doesn't look at monetary policy as a means of addressing unregulated BTL. Powers of direction will evolve in PRA consultation on underwriting standards. Alert to pockets of concentration but will be an across-the-board review. Geopolitical/Cyber Risk: Lots of challenges that could channel through to UK and resilience requirements. Commercial Real Estate: Prices rises fast. However lots of lending from overseas and from an equity base, but signs that leverage/LTV increasing. Smaller market though.
  20. Financial Stability Report, Dec 2015: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/fsr/2015/dec.aspx Press Conference at 8am: http://view-w.tv/117-118-16657/en Stress Test Results: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Pages/fpc/stresstest.aspx Looks like all UK Banks pass BoE stress test, countercyclical capital buffer will be maintained at 0% and property markets will be reviewed and monitored. "The FPC will monitor developments in buy-to-let activity closely following the tax changes to the buy-to-let market announced by the Chancellor in the Budget and Autumn Statement. It supports the programme of work initiated by the Prudential Regulation Authority to review lenders’ underwriting standards. HM Treasury is planning to launch this year a consultation on giving to the FPC similar powers of Direction on buy-to-let mortgage lending as those it has already provided on owner-occupier mortgage lending. In the interim, the FPC stands ready to take action if necessary to protect and enhance financial stability, using its powers of Recommendation."
  21. No the SME adjustment effected the type of lending that determines access to additional funding, not what existing and additional scheme funds can actually be used for. (via freetrader - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/194077-the-bank-of-england-clueless-thread/page-108#entry1102836855)
  22. Effective interest rates October 2015 The effective rate paid on households’ outstanding time deposits [HSCW] decreased by 7bps to 1.52% in October and the rate for households’ new time deposits [bJ74] increased by 4bps to 1.55%. The effective rate on the stock of outstanding secured loans (mortgages) [HDSE] decreased by 1bp to 3.03% in October and the new secured loan rate [bJ95] fell to 2.52%, a decrease of 5bps on the month. Table G1.4 - http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/efr/2015/oct.aspx Mortgage approvals The number of loan approvals for house purchase was 69,630 in October, compared to the average of 68,099 over the previous six months. The number of approvals for remortgaging was 39,629, compared to the average of 38,430 over the previous six months. The number of approvals for other purposes was 12,178, compared to the average of 11,297 over the previous six months. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/mc/2015/oct.aspx Secured Lending
  23. News Release - Bank of England and HM Treasury announce extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2015/096.aspx Edit: Maybe worth noting Freetrader's earlier post on the scheme's assumed SME (non-mortgage) focus of late: "...this is a widespread misunderstanding of FLS, largely caused by the manner in which the Treasury/BoE presented it (deliberate I believe). In the extension of FLS, the amount a bank is eligible to borrow from the scheme is dependent on the amount of SME lending previously undertaken by that bank. However once the bank has got the FLS borrowing, it can do whatever it wants with it. It's not restricted to lending to SMEs." The latest Q3 Credit Conditions Review (h/t Freetrader again for highlighting it):
  24. I think you're correct about the importance of BTL and on wider analysis. However my assumption is that this country is corrupt as f#ck on the things that really mattter; run by rentiers for rentiers and cycles as many into that net as possible to continue the economic rent game, until it can't. Therefore any real affordable housing outcome beyond another bust and boom will take something very different or will be very slow. You may therefore be entirely correct as I have no real idea beyond also interpreting each intervention, price point and wider mix as it comes. But my views have undoubtedly progressed over the years to believe it when I see it.
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