Blobsy Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 It’s another hold from the Fed. More creaking from the joints of those stretched on the debt rack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 9 minutes ago, Blobsy said: It’s another hold from the Fed. More creaking from the joints of those stretched on the debt rack. Not here because we're hacking our rates back way before the Slow Fed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 18 minutes ago, Blobsy said: It’s another hold from the Fed. More creaking from the joints of those stretched on the debt rack. Unfortunately, the Fed also said they're doing larger QT taper from June. The markets are loving this of course. More inflation on the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 FED uping "QT".......Rate not cut & Gold flashing RED ....the inflation beast is coming & MUCH higher rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 The stock markets (and inflation for that matter) love the tool fed chairman currently installed. If you're into bubbles, you couldn't ask for a nicer man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said: FED uping "QT".......Rate not cut & Gold flashing RED ....the inflation beast is coming & MUCH higher rates A bigger QT taper is dovish hence stocks soaring. They're since pulled back - hopefully they'll continue heading south over the summer or better still, pop the stupid thing. Edited May 1 by Dreamcasting Edit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, Stewy said: Not here because we're hacking our rates back way before the Slow Fed. But you said we would be slashing rates in Autumn 2023. . . . . and December 2023. . . . . and March 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 I posted several years ago (got into a spat with @Venger) that the best course of action would be (if possible) to engineer a real terms price adjustment but preserve nominal values. No negative equity, no government 'help', just houses slowly getting more affordable. I would love a 20% nominal fall. I just can't see it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 7 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: I posted several years ago that the best course of action would be (if possible) to engineer a real terms price adjustment but preserve nominal values. Which is not far off what's actually happening from 2022 to now - very modest nominal falls alongside high wage and price inflation. I must say I didn't see it coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 6 hours ago, cdd said: Rock-bottom rates long gone I have to agree on this one and with all of the rampant inflation we have had over the last few years rates should have gone higher. The only reason they haven't because The Fed and other central banks know personal and business debts out there are off the scale. They would love to lower rates but inflation is still a massive problem. Although a full on collapse hasn't fully played out yet I can see this happening in the very near future and with what is going to happen with many banks who are in serious trouble I expect to see some really juicy drops in house prices which I think we will be happening on a global scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 (edited) 11 hours ago, Stewy said: Still totally Plateaud. That’s wholly untrue. More importantly, we know you know it’s untrue. Goods, services, and wages have risen at least 10-15% over the last 2 years…. and yet during that period the house price index has remained static. Are you going to continue to call it a plateau if the nationwide report the same 260k figure throughout this year? Or into next year and beyond? Just admit you’re gutted prices haven’t kept up with inflation. They’ve irrefutably fallen. Edited May 1 by Pmax2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 1 hour ago, Pmax2020 said: That’s wholly untrue. More importantly, we know you know it’s untrue. Goods, services, and wages have risen at least 10-15% over the last 2 years…. and yet during that period the house price index has remained static. Are you going to continue to call it a plateau if the nationwide report the same 260k figure throughout this year? Or into next year and beyond? Just admit you’re gutted prices haven’t kept up with inflation. They’ve irrefutably fallen. It is only since the Plateau has been proven that the sophist trolls here have started looking for other indices - eg so-called "real" house prices. What is real is the House Price Plateau. No crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 2 minutes ago, Stewy said: It is only since the Plateau has been proven that the sophist trolls here have started looking for other indices - eg so-called "real" house prices. What is real is the House Price Plateau. No crash. ur up l8 m8. mortgage worries? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 (edited) 3 hours ago, Pmax2020 said: That’s wholly untrue. More importantly, we know you know it’s untrue. Goods, services, and wages have risen at least 10-15% over the last 2 years…. and yet during that period the house price index has remained static. Are you going to continue to call it a plateau if the nationwide report the same 260k figure throughout this year? Or into next year and beyond? Just admit you’re gutted prices haven’t kept up with inflation. They’ve irrefutably fallen. They've also fallen in nominal terms. Just because guff-infested VI "house price" reports with bespoke modelling and seasonal adjustments, etc, etc aren't reporting it doesn't take away from the observable fact that supply is massively outweighing demand. In any market, when this happens PRICES FALL!! It's hardly rocket science! And also, just because idiot sellers stubbornly refuse to drop their asking price to find the clearing price for their property, doesn't change how markets function. Put simply, if you had to sell your property tomorrow and no buyer is willing to offer what you originally paid for it, THEN THE "VALUE" OF YOUR PROPERTY HAS FALLEN! Pretending otherwise by marketing at a far higher price (where there are no buyers) changes nothing. Edited May 2 by nero120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 31 minutes ago, nero120 said: supply is massively outweighing demand. In any market, when this happens PRICES FALL!! The population growth is fast outpacing the building of new homes. Do you want therefore to revise your conclusion? 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 10 hours ago, Dreamcasting said: A bigger QT taper is dovish hence stocks soaring. They're since pulled back - hopefully they'll continue heading south over the summer or better still, pop the stupid thing. Depends, as some think a slower QT means a longer QT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 The price of a house is a side show next to the financial collapse of western economies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 52 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: The price of a house is a side show next to the financial collapse of western economies. There is no financial collapse going on apart from in the mind of posters on internet forums. You might try visiting the real world once in a while to change your opinion 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14stFlyer Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 (edited) 3 hours ago, Stewy said: The population growth is fast outpacing the building of new homes. The U.K. natural population is now in decline. U.K. population growth is now solely due to net inward migration. It will be interesting for me over the next decade as to whether net inward migration alone can sustain the HPI seen in previous decades when our population was growing. Edited May 2 by 14stFlyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 1 minute ago, 14stFlyer said: The U.K. natural population is now in decline. U.K. population growth is now solely due to net inward migration. It will be interesting for me over the next decade as to whether net inward migration alone can sustain the HPI seen in previous decades when our population was growing. They might not buy straight away, but instead rent and further incentivise BLTing. Even asylum seekers are being taken out of hotels and put into what were family homes. Immigrants from 5-10 years ago are likely in a position to put down a healthy deposit now. They don't stay poor immigrants forever. It's simple supply and demand really. Not really worth delving too much more deeply into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 On 01/05/2024 at 07:44, NoHPCinTheUK said: It’s temporary. Cuts are coming 🌱 They look like they will get wiped out in the election. Oh you meant cuts.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 14 hours ago, Stewy said: Not here because we're hacking our rates back way before the Slow Fed. Capital Flight says no.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 17 hours ago, Social Justice League said: Many debtors are going to feel the pain and default imo. You can predict the same folk waling about 'small government' will now wail for Bailouts because they were missold, innit.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 2 hours ago, Stewy said: There is no financial collapse going on apart from in the mind of posters on internet forums. You might try visiting the real world once in a while to change your opinion 😉 For once I have to agree with Stewy here. What there is is millions of people getting much much poorer. But that isn’t a disorderly financial collapse. It’s just Jim, 47, from Northampton who has worked hard all his life now not being able to afford fish and chips as a Friday evening treat. Depressing, but not financial collapse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 29 minutes ago, scottbeard said: For once I have to agree with Stewy here. What there is is millions of people getting much much poorer. But that isn’t a disorderly financial collapse. It’s just Jim, 47, from Northampton who has worked hard all his life now not being able to afford fish and chips as a Friday evening treat. Depressing, but not financial collapse. Taking the scene further Jim blaming his lack of Fish and Chips because Nigel Tufton-Bufton aka Nige of the People says it folk like Ludmilla and Ahmed coming in and stinking the place with Borscht and Curry.... all the time Nigels mate, Alexanda De-Ponsonby Chinless gets another Government contract for his pub mate, paid for by freezing Jim's Tax bands and increasing his VAT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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