Home values significantly overestimated by owners

[fellow]

Home values significantly overestimated by owners

https://propertyindustryeye.com/home-values-significantly-overestimated-by-owners/

Quote

 

Homeowners are growing increasingly out of touch with the changing property market, new figures suggest.

According to Quick Move Now, on average, residents are currently valuing their own properties 15% higher than estate agents’ valuations.

Danny Luke, Quick Move Now’s managing director, said: “We asked thousands of homeowners in England and Wales to tell us how much they believe their property is worth. We then asked independent local estate agents to value the properties and compared the figures. 

“In 2022, homeowners were overvaluing by an average of 11%. Now they are overvaluing by an average of 15%. This growing inaccuracy suggests homeowners are struggling to keep up with the declining market.”

According to Luke, it is little surprise that owners are becoming less accurate in their valuations since the property market has seen some significant fluctuations over the last three years. 

“Anyone who hasn’t bought or sold a property in that time would likely find it very challenging to gauge where the market is currently, and how much they might realistically hope to achieve for their property,” he said.

“Nationally, the average house price has fallen by 5% over the last year and average time on market has increased by 26%, so owners are having to price their properties much more competitively to achieve a sale in the current market,” Luke added.

 

 

[Cluelessofnowhere]

I spoke to a seller who can't sell their house. They are going to try again in the spring. They think the current dip is transient. I'm not so sure. Another six months and buyers will be even more maxed out on their credit cards. Plus job losses too?

[shlomo]

2 minutes ago, Cluelessofnowhere said:

I spoke to a seller who can't sell their house. They are going to try again in the spring. They think the current dip is transient. I'm not so sure. Another six months and buyers will be even more maxed out on their credit cards. Plus job losses too?

This is not something people can get their heads around 

[hotblack42]

4 minutes ago, Cluelessofnowhere said:

Plus job losses too?

Businessman from York on R5 this morning said that many SMEs now running out of money after taking Pandemic loans, spending reserves where they had some and some owners even maxxing out personal credit cards.

All hoping something would 'turn up' which flies in the face of harsh realities such as larger firms drawing in skills, experience and talent with market beating remuneration and ongoing inflation.

As an analyst, when people justify pressing on with projects and business initiatives on the basis of economic cycles or improving conditions, I look for current or historical evidence to back these assumptions.  If none is forthcoming its probably time to throw in the towel and try something else.  The sooner the better TBH.

'Needing' a positive development is neither here nor there.

[fellow]

22 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

Businessman from York on R5 this morning said that many SMEs now running out of money after taking Pandemic loans, spending reserves where they had some and some owners even maxxing out personal credit cards.

All hoping something would 'turn up' which flies in the face of harsh realities such as larger firms drawing in skills, experience and talent with market beating remuneration and ongoing inflation.

As an analyst, when people justify pressing on with projects and business initiatives on the basis of economic cycles or improving conditions, I look for current or historical evidence to back these assumptions.  If none is forthcoming its probably time to throw in the towel and try something else.  The sooner the better TBH.

'Needing' a positive development is neither here nor there.

I kept telling people that COVID lockdowns will make the country (and them) poorer one way or another and to prepare for the unintended consequences. But they wouldn't believe it it and thought everything would just magically go back to normal as though nothing had happened.

Edited November 17, 2023 by fellow

[spyguy]

People think their kids are above average.

That their waists are a lot slimmer.

Their abs more muscled.

their boobs n ***** bigger.

 

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, fellow said:

Home values significantly overestimated by owners

https://propertyindustryeye.com/home-values-significantly-overestimated-by-owners/

 

No shit

Very much a three speed market here.

Amazing house and a small chance (and reducing) a mug/cannot be arsed person will just pay.

house prices peak plus like nothing happened …. Most for sale

Actual mainstream market 10% plus down from the first two.

The fact it’s only down that much is du to the overpriced group once they become motivated another xx% down very quick.

Still too many agents though and desperate for listings and have no leverage with sellers.

[Casual-observer]

1 hour ago, Cluelessofnowhere said:

I spoke to a seller who can't sell their house. They are going to try again in the spring. They think the current dip is transient. I'm not so sure. Another six months and buyers will be even more maxed out on their credit cards. Plus job losses too?

totally unaware everyone else will have the same idea, meanwhile unsold inventory continues to climb which in itself dampens prices. 

[nero120]

1 hour ago, Cluelessofnowhere said:

I spoke to a seller who can't sell their house. They are going to try again in the spring. They think the current dip is transient. I'm not so sure. Another six months and buyers will be even more maxed out on their credit cards. Plus job losses too?

We're in a gully people!! It's just a gully!!

[Housepricecrash91]

Yep, homeowners now want 15% more than what their neighbours sold for 6 months ago. That's what happens when you give out loads of free money and try to prop up the market with tax breaks, etc.

Even estate agents are now begging for some common sense amongst sellers... I'm pretty much going to viewings at the moment where agents are openly saying things are overpriced and I should make a below asking offer.... I did, but it was batted away by a deluded seller who was willing to lose the property they had already secured because of 'No, I want £390k, that's what it's worth'..... Evidently it isn't, as it's still on the market now! 6 months later...

[scottbeard]

Quote

According to Quick Move Now, on average, residents are currently valuing their own properties 15% higher than estate agents’ valuations.

Don't lose sight of another point here - the article is acting like "estate agents' valuations" is somehow the "correct" answer.

I put my house on the market 6 weeks ago for 5% LESS than the estate agent's valuation.  It has had almost no interest.

It may well be in this current market that estate agents are overvaluing by 10%, and owners by a further 15%, meaning in practice people won't be able to sell their house for more than 25% below what they think it's "worth".

They won't like that...

[msi]

1 hour ago, Cluelessofnowhere said:

I spoke to a seller who can't sell their house. They are going to try again in the spring. They think the current dip is transient. I'm not so sure. Another six months and buyers will be even more maxed out on their credit cards. Plus job losses too?

Current dip is transient....

'High' interest rates are transient...

Cost of Living is transient...

Inflation is transient..

 

The delusion is staggering, but expected, from the less-than-thinking.  There is a lot of sentimental hope building up, when it flips that will be fast.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

20 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Don't lose sight of another point here - the article is acting like "estate agents' valuations" is somehow the "correct" answer.

I put my house on the market 6 weeks ago for 5% LESS than the estate agent's valuation.  It has had almost no interest.

It may well be in this current market that estate agents are overvaluing by 10%, and owners by a further 15%, meaning in practice people won't be able to sell their house for more than 25% below what they think it's "worth".

They won't like that...

25% will barely bring us back to pre-Covid prices? 
 

Rates are 5x higher than 2019, we have lost almost 30% of our purchasing power (see Truflation). 25pc is a very sanguine estimate. 
 

I’m a FTB and I am now able to borrow 250k at current rates, almost 200k less compared to the bottom of IRs. 
 

People in my situation are priced out the market unless prices go down by at least 50%. I’m talking about a couple with a gross income of roughly 120k. 
 

But I might be wrong with these numbers 

Edited November 17, 2023 by NoHPCinTheUK

[scottbeard]

3 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

25% will barely bring us back to pre-Covid prices? 

25% isn't what I'm saying house prices WILL fall ... it's the difference, potentially, between what an average person thinks their house is worth and what it really is.

[nero120]

34 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

25% isn't what I'm saying house prices WILL fall ... it's the difference, potentially, between what an average person thinks their house is worth and what it really is.

In truth, it's impossible to guess. Every house has it's own market. The only way to know what any house is worth is to put it on the market and see what realistic offers it attracts.

If we really wanted to make the market efficient then every house should be sold in auction, like on eBay! Start the bidding at 0.99p and then see what the highest bid turns out to be. You'd get some true price discovery, but people may not like the result!! 

[sell2rent]

Same happened all the way down last time. We'll get people talking about a spring bounce every year. Eventually they'll be right.

[DownwardSlopingPlateau]

16 minutes ago, sell2rent said:

We'll get people talking about a spring bounce every year. Eventually they'll be right.

BoE and FED are collapsing IRs over the next six months. Mortgage rates will follow. Window of opportunity to buy at these currently heavily reduced prices is closing fast. House prices to bounce significantly from next Spring onwards - possibly sooner after government intervention starting next week. *

 

* Just posting on behalf of someone who seems to be having a bit of a lie-in this morning. 😉

[MancTom]

1 hour ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

25% will barely bring us back to pre-Covid prices? 
 

Rates are 5x higher than 2019, we have lost almost 30% of our purchasing power (see Truflation). 25pc is a very sanguine estimate. 
 

I’m a FTB and I am now able to borrow 250k at current rates, almost 200k less compared to the bottom of IRs. 
 

People in my situation are priced out the market unless prices go down by at least 50%. I’m talking about a couple with a gross income of roughly 120k. 
 

 

Depends where. I sold my FTB house for 200k one year ago in a very popular suburb in a very popular northern city (I thought even 200k was absurd, considering what I paid for it not so long ago).

We shouldn't talk about a "UK housing market" because London/SE are very much detached from reality/rest of the country.

Edited November 17, 2023 by MancTom

[deerohdeer1]

We have far too many barriers stopping actual price discovery.

Your mortgage has doubled and you've exhausted your savings... Not go I/O for 6 months, then slip into arrears, then wait a further 12 months for repossession proceedings.

The only way I can see price falls accelerating is if estate agents are hurting enough and enough of them close down so that the ones that are left give frank and honest valuations.

It feels like there are no winners currently except a handful of downsizing cash buyers that manage to find the last fool to over pay.

@scottbeard you're almost getting screwed over double, not only are you pricing 'realistically' you still can't sell and if you do get an offer it will be below asking and then you'll have to deal with stubborn sellers at the top end who have over valued but consider giving even 5% off asking price to be a crime against humanity.

[fellow]

37 minutes ago, DownwardSlopingPlateau said:

BoE and FED are collapsing IRs over the next six months. Mortgage rates will follow. Window of opportunity to buy at these currently heavily reduced prices is closing fast. House prices to bounce significantly from next Spring onwards - possibly sooner after government intervention starting next week. *

 

* Just posting on behalf of someone who seems to be having a bit of a lie-in this morning. 😉

He may have given up after I told him yesterday how the deflation he is cheering on will actually cause a deflationary collapse in the money supply, economy and house prices.

Edited November 17, 2023 by fellow

[morty]

My friend is looking to buy family home.  Checking original selling prices most the places have doubled, in some instances over just a few years.  

[sell2rent]

4 hours ago, DownwardSlopingPlateau said:

BoE and FED are collapsing IRs over the next six months. Mortgage rates will follow. Window of opportunity to buy at these currently heavily reduced prices is closing fast. House prices to bounce significantly from next Spring onwards - possibly sooner after government intervention starting next week. *

 

* Just posting on behalf of someone who seems to be having a bit of a lie-in this morning. 😉

I know it is tongue in cheek, nice work. A house I would buy I'm instead renting. The rental yield after correcting for included gardening and property tax/rates/council tax is 2.6%. I would expect convergence with interest rates to signal it is time to buy it.

[cdd]

9 hours ago, Cluelessofnowhere said:

I spoke to a seller who can't sell their house. They are going to try again in the spring. They think the current dip is transient. I'm not so sure. Another six months and buyers will be even more maxed out on their credit cards. Plus job losses too?

Transient house price dip, just like the transient interest rate rises. Oh wait...

[Pop321]

Sold 2 this year…..whilst others are in denial it’s a great time to pitch a bit below the market and bail.

The whole advantage of housing as an investment is that prices are not efficient.

In times of despair you can get something for perhaps half the price it should be….it’s great. This appears to be something lost of amateur BTL landlords who are the only ‘traders’ I know who pay ‘retail prices’. 

Things ain’t going to improve for sellers….we may see tweaks by the government but the whole thing will come crushing down soon….not just houses. Short term dips in rates, inflation and commodity prices will be ripples in the ocean. Interesting times ahead. 😉

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

Soon, some people will get the same sinking feeling I got in 1990 when I looked in an estates agent window and realised I had overpaid for what I had thought was a bargain.