"Brexit has failed" - what happens next

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, Ballyk said:

De facto we are closing ourselves off from the EU.  So many things are harder to import and export. Tariff and non tariff barriers. 

Just in my own business I have lost pretty much all my EU customers.

I have a few more UK customers, who would before have bought from the EU.  But this doesn't compensate for the loss of EU customers. 

I have had to raise my margins to compensate for that.  This I can do because I face less EU competition. 

Overall the consumer loses.  Multiply my experience over the whole economy, and you see how cutting ourselves off makes us all losers.

De facto we are certainly not closing ourselves off from the EU. At the margins there will be businesses that are affected like yours but you can't multiply that experience over the whole economy.

[kzb]

4 hours ago, zugzwang said:

There's no China after China. 👍

There's all those African countries.

[kzb]

4 hours ago, pig said:

Of course - nobody can trade with anybody unless they leave the EU. Will make perfect sense to people with no brains.

Actually you can't.  The EU is fundamentally protectionist. 

For example, the first raw sugar shipment from Australia landed recently, the first in many years.  The EU charges a significant import tariff on raw sugar, previously making Oz imports uneconomic, and resulting in the closure of Tate and Lyle in Liverpool.

4 hours ago, pig said:

Speaking of which, it turns out brainless brexiteers were sabotaging the CPTPP deal - interesting article for more insights into the geopolitical context:

The problem we have is the Irish have spread their victimhood message around the world much better than we have publicised our own position.  The RoW thinks we are evil for keeping hold of NI and that is what is behind it all.

[zugzwang]

11 minutes ago, kzb said:

There's all those African countries.

Pwned by China.

[kzb]

4 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

The EU single market will only grow by expanding East. That's where all the growth potential is. So Turkey, Ukraine etc.

They're all poor countries.  The reason they want to join is because they have their hands out for money.  We'd be paying for their upgrades whilst our own infrastructure goes down the toilet even further.

4 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

It would not surprise me if in the future the CPTPP actually did a deal with the single market, letting the UK back in by stealth as it were.

We're "in" it already though, via the FTA.  I'm not sure an EU-CPTPP agreement would extend the EU-UK FTA terms ?

[kzb]

Just now, zugzwang said:

Pwned by China.

Well as long as they have cheap labour and a willingness to be exploited does it matter ?

[dugsbody]

37 minutes ago, kzb said:

The EU is fundamentally protectionist. 

No more protectionist than most, less so in fact.

[dugsbody]

39 minutes ago, kzb said:

The problem we have is the Irish have spread their victimhood message around the world much better than we have publicised our own position.  The RoW thinks we are evil for keeping hold of NI and that is what is behind it all.

🤣

Brexiters really are funny.

[Bob8]

9 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

🤣

Brexiters really are funny.

The hypocracy of him complaining about others claiming victimhood.

[dugsbody]

24 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

The hypocracy of him complaining about others claiming victimhood.

🤣

I genuinely sometimes wonder if a lot of the "brexiters" here are fake to give the rest of them a bad name. The material just feels a little too perfect sometimes.

[Ballyk]

4 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

De facto we are certainly not closing ourselves off from the EU. At the margins there will be businesses that are affected like yours but you can't multiply that experience over the whole economy.

De facto we most certainly are!  No doubt it is not the stated intention of any (Tory) Brexiteer, but if you read the FT, on almost any day you will find examples of businesses large and small negatively impacted bytrade barriers imposed.

And worse is yet to come.  Take the car industry and rules of origin:  from 1st January 2024, rules come in mandating that a certain % of cars has have EU or UK sourced parts.  If not imports / exports will be subject to tariffs.  Completely distortionary, creates inefficiency, adds friction, adds costs to the producer and therefore consumer.  Totally avoidable.  Similar trade barriers have either gone up or are going up across many different sectors.  If they don't snuff out trade entirely, they add to costs for both sides, and reduce competitiveness.

Further reading - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/rules-of-origin-in-the-auto-industry-under-a-uk-eu-deal/

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

Actually you can't.  The EU is fundamentally protectionist. 

All trade blocks are fundamentally protectionist, that's why they exist. 

If you see that as a problem why have we joined the fundamentally protectionist CPTPP.

2 hours ago, kzb said:

For example, the first raw sugar shipment from Australia landed recently, the first in many years.  The EU charges a significant import tariff on raw sugar, previously making Oz imports uneconomic, and resulting in the closure of Tate and Lyle in Liverpool.

The problem we have is the Irish have spread their victimhood message around the world much better than we have publicised our own position.  The RoW thinks we are evil for keeping hold of NI and that is what is behind it all.

Almost all the RoW probably doesn't know, or care, anything about NI. 

2 hours ago, kzb said:

They're all poor countries.  The reason they want to join is because they have their hands out for money. 

They want somethings we want others. If everyone agrees its a win win we can do a deal.

2 hours ago, kzb said:

We'd be paying for their upgrades whilst our own infrastructure goes down the toilet even further.

It would be a very small fraction of the money we lost by leaving the EU, so we would have much more to spend on our infrastructure. 

2 hours ago, kzb said:

We're "in" it already though, via the FTA.  I'm not sure an EU-CPTPP agreement would extend the EU-UK FTA terms ?

 

[pig]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

Actually you can't.  The EU is fundamentally protectionist. 

For example, the first raw sugar shipment from Australia landed recently, the first in many years.  The EU charges a significant import tariff on raw sugar, previously making Oz imports uneconomic, and resulting in the closure of Tate and Lyle in Liverpool.

The problem we have is the Irish have spread their victimhood message around the world much better than we have publicised our own position.  The RoW thinks we are evil for keeping hold of NI and that is what is behind it all.

... on the other hand it could just be what they said, rather than the entertaining nonsense you made up to feel better about it lol

Tbf I genuinely have no idea if you believe anything you write. Could it be a curious form of cognitive dissonance ?

[thecrashingisles]

3 hours ago, Ballyk said:

De facto we most certainly are!  No doubt it is not the stated intention of any (Tory) Brexiteer, but if you read the FT, on almost any day you will find examples of businesses large and small negatively impacted bytrade barriers imposed.

And worse is yet to come.  Take the car industry and rules of origin:  from 1st January 2024, rules come in mandating that a certain % of cars has have EU or UK sourced parts.  If not imports / exports will be subject to tariffs.  Completely distortionary, creates inefficiency, adds friction, adds costs to the producer and therefore consumer.  Totally avoidable.  Similar trade barriers have either gone up or are going up across many different sectors.  If they don't snuff out trade entirely, they add to costs for both sides, and reduce competitiveness.

Further reading - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/rules-of-origin-in-the-auto-industry-under-a-uk-eu-deal/

You read about businesses that are negatively impacted every day because it's newsworthy, whereas business carrying on as normal is not, but you can't extrapolate from that to the whole economy. It will take time for everything to adjust to new trading patterns.

It remains a fact that we have the closest EU trading relationship of any country that is outside the European institutions, so it's perverse to say that we are closed off.

[kzb]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

All trade blocks are fundamentally protectionist, that's why they exist. 

If you see that as a problem why have we joined the fundamentally protectionist CPTPP.

There's no comparison between the level of protectionism between the two.   Protectionism is a central plank if not the central plank of why the EU exists in the first place.

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Almost all the RoW probably doesn't know, or care, anything about NI. 

If they've never heard of it, there will be an "Irish" descendent on hand to tell them in no time.

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They want somethings we want others. If everyone agrees its a win win we can do a deal.

Cheap labour in other words.

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It would be a very small fraction of the money we lost by leaving the EU, so we would have much more to spend on our infrastructure. 

As I keep saying there is no solid evidence we lost money by leaving the EU, and still less that we won't be better off as a result of leaving in the future.  The EU has just announced it is giving €1.2bn to Tunisia.  No opportunity for the MEPs to vote on it, it is diktat.  We would've paid 13% of that if we were still in.

 

 

[thecrashingisles]

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

After the gaslighting we now have an the reality and confirmation that the CPTPP is little more than a replication of existing trade deals.  

Flagship Brexit trade deal with Pacific has ‘no major economic gains for UK’

Quote

the bloc largely replicates existing agreements the UK has a bilateral basis.

An analysis by the researchers notes that the vast majority of existing agreements Britain has with the CPTPP existing members are copies of or closely based on agreements the UK enjoyed because of its EU membership.

But crucially, the agreements Britain already has with the countries in CPTPP are in some cases better than the terms on which it could trade with them as part of CPTPP.

 

[thecrashingisles]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

After the gaslighting we now have an the reality and confirmation that the CPTPP is little more than a replication of existing trade deals. 

It's nice of you to own up that the scaremongering about the devastation of British farming due to being flooded with substandard imports was just gaslighting.

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

It's nice of you to own up Thatthat the scaremongering about the devastation of British farming due to being flooded with substandard imports was just gaslighting.

It's the OZ and NZ deals that farmers say will harm them. 

All the time you spend on here and you didn't know that?  

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It's the OZ and NZ deals that farmers say will harm them. 

All the time you spend on here and you didn't know that?  

You just said that the CPTPP deal replicates them.

[Confusion of VIs]

UK government climbs down on post-Brexit product mark | Financial Times (ft.com)

Quote

 

The UK government has bowed to pressure from businesses and dropped rules to force companies to use a new post-Brexit replacement for the EU’s “CE” product quality mark.

The “indefinite” postponement was widely welcomed by industry and came after more than two years of intense lobbying to abandon the new rules.

The government has long portrayed the UKCA safety mark as a way the country can “take back control of our product regulations” in the wake of Brexit.

 

More evidence that Leaving the EU has actually left us a less sovereign country as we are forced by economic realities to follow rules we now have no say in setting. 

 
 

[jonb2]

On 22/07/2023 at 13:46, thecrashingisles said:

 

Britain is Europe's liberal outcast ????????

Very funny indeed. The trouble with 'unherd' and you is you believe in fairies.

"If it passes, the Online Safety Bill will be a huge step backwards for global privacy, and democracy itself. Requiring government-approved software in peoples’ messaging services is an awful precedent. If the Online Safety Bill becomes British law, the damage it causes won’t stop at the borders of the U.K."

The U.K. Government Is Very Close To Eroding Encryption Worldwide  | Electronic Frontier Foundation
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2023/07/uk-government-very-close-eroding-encryption-worldwide

 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by jonb2

[debtlessmanc]

Well the 1.1M asylum seekers who arrived in Germany in 2015 are getting their German citizenship and their first thought is...

use it move somehwere in the Anglosphere..

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2023/07/31/eight-years-later-syrian-family-considers-future-germany

in fact migrants do not want to stay in Germany at all

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/22/skilled-migrants-arent-interested-in-germany/

The UK had been the recipient of an enormous amount of secondary migration from other countries systems, especially Portugal and the netherlands. I could only see this continuing with endless pressure on housing, services and even  water supplies. At least the UK chooses who migrates in now, rather than other countries who thought the would not have to deal with any problems longer term thanks to FoM.

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by debtlessmanc

[Dweller]

Delayed again!

Eventually someone is going to have to admit that being out of the SM /CU is never going to work. 

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1022505/brexit-border-plans-face-new-delay-as-ministers-mull-inflation-1022505.html

Brexit border plans face new delay as ministers mull inflation

[dugsbody]

On 02/08/2023 at 09:51, debtlessmanc said:

Well the 1.1M asylum seekers who arrived in Germany in 2015 are getting their German citizenship and their first thought is...

use it move somehwere in the Anglosphere..

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2023/07/31/eight-years-later-syrian-family-considers-future-germany

in fact migrants do not want to stay in Germany at all

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/22/skilled-migrants-arent-interested-in-germany/

The UK had been the recipient of an enormous amount of secondary migration from other countries systems, especially Portugal and the netherlands. I could only see this continuing with endless pressure on housing, services and even  water supplies. At least the UK chooses who migrates in now, rather than other countries who thought the would not have to deal with any problems longer term thanks to FoM.

Brexit has costs.

The upside brexiters told us was that we now have choice on migrants. Can you tell us what benefits that has brought for the cost? I can't see any.

(I'm not even bothering to address your usual English supremacist views that the UK is special for migrants).