Halifax Nov -2.3%

[Mancunian284]

2 hours ago, henry the king said:

We will know more in 2-3 months but it is looking good for a rapid crash right now. We never know for sure though until we see it in the data for several months in several metrics. I am confident though.

But isn’t this based on completions in November?  Which means sales agreed up to about the end of August?  So the mortgage mayhem from September onwards hasn’t even filtered through to sold prices yet.  It’s seems to have stalled near me since the Truss / Kwartang budget, I’m not sure enough sales have been agreed in October and November to show a reliable pattern.  But completions down is sales volume seriously down.  Squeaky bum time in EAs offices, their commission pipeline will have dried up and I expect we will see some redundancies in the NY.  

[Gawdon Bwown]

2 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Can't have dual passport it is seriously frowned on in China. Instant persona non grata if find out and not extreme goid reason 

Your bang on, for ordinary citizens that's exactly the case, and maybe that's all he is... maybe he isn't even Han.... I'm very suspicious though.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

11 hours ago, highcontrast said:

Thanks, yes that was the plan, but as an FTB, wasn't sure about the sequence of events? We've agreed a price, but I've not yet completed the solicitors paperwork (which is stating the agreed price).

Do I go in with a lower offer now or after solicitors have gotten my signed agreements/surveys have been done etc?

Please explain like I'm 5 years old.

 

Knowing that prices are going Crashy Crashy but needing to move is making me tear my hair out 😕

Timing has never been kind.

Having had it done to me I thought this was pretty accurate although I pulled out of the sale and spent four more years in a house I hated (actually the house was O.K. it was the neighbours) 

https://www.propertyroad.co.uk/how-to-gazunder-successfully/

Regarding timing, the reason I post here is that I feel I wasted 20 years of my life due to unstable house prices.
Ten years to get my money back then ten years out of the market while my girlfriends house went up each month by about the same as my take home pay.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

5 hours ago, BuyToLet said:

Good point

If house prices to income ratios just go back to where they were in the 90s, that could be like a 55% drop. In London it could be an absolute bloodbath, 70% drops incoming! That's assuming constant income too, in reality that would get destroyed in a recession... 2023 is going to be interesting!

As people have already said average incomes won't be constant but will catch up. In the 1990s drops didn't exceed about 30% in £s. Looking for average earnings over the same period I just found a very old article. 
 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/593477.stm

Between 1990 and 1995 when there  was a real recession going on (as opposed to 2008s pseudo recession) wages increased 27%. So a 30% drop in prices combined with 27% increase in wages gives a 57% improvement in affordability. 

 

[turkeydogshrimp]

14 minutes ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

As people have already said average incomes won't be constant but will catch up. In the 1990s drops didn't exceed about 30% in £s. Looking for average earnings over the same period I just found a very old article. 
 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/593477.stm

Between 1990 and 1995 when there  was a real recession going on (as opposed to 2008s pseudo recession) wages increased 27%. So a 30% drop in prices combined with 27% increase in wages gives a 57% improvement in affordability. 

 

Can you explain to me how wages go up in a shrinking economy and rising unemployment?

Where is the money coming from?

 

[Twenty Something]

13 hours ago, highcontrast said:

@Twenty Something@Speed1987@Stjames83

"....Come out, come out wherever you are....

 

 

Peek-a-boo!"

I really don’t know what you want me to say to make your life better? If it’s some sort of woe is me my life is ruined sort of post then you’re going to be sadly disappointed. Not because I’m broke or destitute or sad or ruined or whatever but because the impact that you want to believe all this is having just quite simply isn’t materialising on myself or anyone I know. 

Everytime you tag me in one of these pointless haha gotcha kind of posts I just laugh at you and how little you get life. I’m still waiting for you to reply to me from the last time when I asked you give me an example of a single post I’ve made when I have said that prices can never fall. Go on. Just one. You can’t can you? What you choose to ignore is that unlike you, I have called the last three years spot on. Instead of posting crashy crashy since 2016 I’ve brought and moved on with life whilst you and many others have been drawing pictures and wetting your pants about bankers and evil homeowners. 
 

You’ll post something churlish back about me being really scared or touched a nerve because that’s all you have. What point are you trying to make here? Shall i dig up my precise prediction from this time last year that prices will be year on year 5% up now? What did you say? Crashy crashy and post a picture? 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Twenty Something

[Pmax2020]

2 minutes ago, turkeydogshrimp said:

Can you explain to me how wages go up in a shrinking economy and rising unemployment?

Where is the money coming from?

 

I find myself asking the same questions in response to the endless striking. If these people want inflation-busting pay rises - to whom or what detriment do they get them?

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

5 minutes ago, turkeydogshrimp said:

Can you explain to me how wages go up in a shrinking economy and rising unemployment?

Where is the money coming from?

 

You need to take into account the value of the currency as well. Look up Black Wednesday. Prices of imports like the Japanese camera I was after suddenly jumped 20%. In contrast Americans were looking at the price of Range Rovers and holidays in London and thinking "gee that's good value". The key thing in the 1990s was "if you could keep your job". Lose it and you were in big trouble. The reason I didn't move house in 1995 was the company I work for being put up for sale adding uncertainty. 

[Timm]

6 hours ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

Having had it done to me I thought this was pretty accurate although I pulled out of the sale and spent four more years in a house I hated (actually the house was O.K. it was the neighbours) 

https://www.propertyroad.co.uk/how-to-gazunder-successfully/

Regarding timing, the reason I post here is that I feel I wasted 20 years of my life due to unstable house prices.
Ten years to get my money back then ten years out of the market while my girlfriends house went up each month by about the same as my take home pay.

Ouch.

Looking back, do you regret pulling out of the sale?

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

1 hour ago, Timm said:

Ouch.

Looking back, do you regret pulling out of the sale?

I have certainly thought about it a few times. There is a house locally, better than any I have ever owned which had an asking price of £92K at the time. Of course to put things into context I was being offered £48K for a house I had paid £65K for five years earlier. In contrast the girlfriend I mentioned bought (before I met her) at the very bottom of the 1993 slump. She didn't have to Gazunder anyone, having made a very low offer, only for the sellers to realise she was the only person interested as various others pulled out.

Actually that might be a lesson for any potential Gazunders. Had my "buyer" been upfront and offered £48K in the first place rather than messing me around after I had already spent money solicitors fees etc I might have looked at her offer more favorably. 

p.s For anyone wondering what kind of house you could buy for around £50K back then it was a fifteen year old three bed terrace on a South Coast estate that was and probably still is around the average house price.

p.p.s. What I have also realised after over 40 years is that life presents many "Sliding doors" / "turn a different corner" type moments which are difficult to plan for.

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack
typo

[17clarence]

Property experts all over the radio this morning. One on GBN said landlords are fleeing the market to preserve their capital gains, as they don’t make any/enough profit month by month if they are mortgaged.

[Staffsknot]

9 hours ago, Gawdon Bwown said:

Your bang on, for ordinary citizens that's exactly the case, and maybe that's all he is... maybe he isn't even Han.... I'm very suspicious though.

He's just a bloke in West Mids with a massive China crush

[highcontrast]

9 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

I really don’t know what you want me to say to make your life better? If it’s some sort of woe is me my life is ruined sort of post then you’re going to be sadly disappointed. Not because I’m broke or destitute or sad or ruined or whatever but because the impact that you want to believe all this is having just quite simply isn’t materialising on myself or anyone I know. 

Everytime you tag me in one of these pointless haha gotcha kind of posts I just laugh at you and how little you get life. I’m still waiting for you to reply to me from the last time when I asked you give me an example of a single post I’ve made when I have said that prices can never fall. Go on. Just one. You can’t can you? What you choose to ignore is that unlike you, I have called the last three years spot on. Instead of posting crashy crashy since 2016 I’ve brought and moved on with life whilst you and many others have been drawing pictures and wetting your pants about bankers and evil homeowners. 
 

You’ll post something churlish back about me being really scared or touched a nerve because that’s all you have. What point are you trying to make here? Shall i dig up my precise prediction from this time last year that prices will be year on year 5% up now? What did you say? Crashy crashy and post a picture? 

I just find it fascinating (and funny) how you and the rest of team HPI4EVA have gone quieter and quieter. 

But also, just for giggles I love how easily Team HPI4EVA are triggered

P.s. Crashy Crashy!

Hope you're still updating the "Crashy Crashy count" on your stalker spreadsheet!

 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Prince Charles And The City Beat Band - In The Streets[HQ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRUaQJHLVho

[henry the king]

9 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

I really don’t know what you want me to say to make your life better? If it’s some sort of woe is me my life is ruined sort of post then you’re going to be sadly disappointed. Not because I’m broke or destitute or sad or ruined or whatever but because the impact that you want to believe all this is having just quite simply isn’t materialising on myself or anyone I know. 

Everytime you tag me in one of these pointless haha gotcha kind of posts I just laugh at you and how little you get life. I’m still waiting for you to reply to me from the last time when I asked you give me an example of a single post I’ve made when I have said that prices can never fall. Go on. Just one. You can’t can you? What you choose to ignore is that unlike you, I have called the last three years spot on. Instead of posting crashy crashy since 2016 I’ve brought and moved on with life whilst you and many others have been drawing pictures and wetting your pants about bankers and evil homeowners. 
 

You’ll post something churlish back about me being really scared or touched a nerve because that’s all you have. What point are you trying to make here? Shall i dig up my precise prediction from this time last year that prices will be year on year 5% up now? What did you say? Crashy crashy and post a picture? 

Now you try to take the high road when prices are collpasing?

What happened to your posts trawling through people's post histories and calling them idiots for saying prices will go down?

Edited December 8, 2022 by henry the king

[henry the king]

12 hours ago, voy-por said:

Canada is probably 3 or 4 months ahead of the UK but the trends seem highly correlated. Fast initial crash of around 15/20 pc covid froth followed by a slow grind which is basically due to zero stock (otherwise you’d se another 10/15 pc easy). BoC managed to get banks to step in and halt units coming to market (and thereby further falls) by 1) increasing amortisation, and if that doesn’t work for the borrower then, 2) move to IO. Expect UK banks to be doing this soon, maybe as soon as Christmas.

I think this will avert a cataclysmic event, but it won’t stop an almighty correction. The summer will be interesting. Once in a generation buying opportunity coming this time next year. 
 
It was about interest rates. It was always about interest rates. 
 

 

This is plausible for sure. But then if a recession hits we will get another crash after this and so will Canada. 

[scottbeard]

14 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

I'm here, just waiting for the props to be announced, which you all know will happen also.

Seriously?  With the NHS collapsing, 1 million public sector workers on strike, the public freezing in their homes you think there will be money to prop up house prices?

Delusion.  Utter delusion.

Sure over the last 20 years plenty of money has been thrown that way...but the markets called time on Truss/Kwarteng.

There is no money.  There are no probs.  Not this time.

[Blobsy]

10 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

I really don’t know what you want me to say to make your life better? If it’s some sort of woe is me my life is ruined sort of post then you’re going to be sadly disappointed. Not because I’m broke or destitute or sad or ruined or whatever but because the impact that you want to believe all this is having just quite simply isn’t materialising on myself or anyone I know. 

Everytime you tag me in one of these pointless haha gotcha kind of posts I just laugh at you and how little you get life. I’m still waiting for you to reply to me from the last time when I asked you give me an example of a single post I’ve made when I have said that prices can never fall. Go on. Just one. You can’t can you? What you choose to ignore is that unlike you, I have called the last three years spot on. Instead of posting crashy crashy since 2016 I’ve brought and moved on with life whilst you and many others have been drawing pictures and wetting your pants about bankers and evil homeowners. 
 

You’ll post something churlish back about me being really scared or touched a nerve because that’s all you have. What point are you trying to make here? Shall i dig up my precise prediction from this time last year that prices will be year on year 5% up now? What did you say? Crashy crashy and post a picture? 

Steady on

[mynamehere]

1 minute ago, scottbeard said:

Seriously?  With the NHS collapsing, 1 million public sector workers on strike, the public freezing in their homes you think there will be money to prop up house prices?

Delusion.  Utter delusion.

Sure over the last 20 years plenty of money has been thrown that way...but the markets called time on Truss/Kwarteng.

There is no money.  There are no probs.  Not this time.

There are ways to make the home owners pay for the props. Eg IO. 
 

the difference this time is labour market is very strong so IO will have some upward impact in short term at least. How could it not? 

[scottbeard]

20 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

There are ways to make the home owners pay for the props. Eg IO. 
 

the difference this time is labour market is very strong so IO will have some upward impact in short term at least. How could it not? 

I don't understand

[Timm]

7 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I don't understand

Because if you are not paying down the principle, you will pay more in interest over the term?

[scottbeard]

36 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

There are ways to make the home owners pay for the props. Eg IO. 

OK I get what you're saying now - but at best this avoids a small number of repossessions.  No bank is going to give a FTB an IO mortgage with house prices falling 2% per month and a recession looming.

Compare that to the financial magnitude of true props like cutting the IR from 5% to 0.1% or nationalising Northern Rock or even Help to Buy, and it's small beer.

Plus it is only a delaying tactic, as when the mortgage term ends the property will have to be sold anyway.

[mynamehere]

9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

OK I get what you're saying now - but at best this avoids a small number of repossessions.  No bank is going to give a FTB an IO mortgage with house prices falling 2% per month and a recession looming.

Compare that to the financial magnitude of true props like cutting the IR from 5% to 0.1% or nationalising Northern Rock or even Help to Buy, and it's small beer.

Plus it is only a delaying tactic, as when the mortgage term ends the property will have to be sold anyway.

Yes it's a delaying tactic. Just like covid mortgage holidays, which loads of people took. It's only designed to last until 'normal' conditions return. 

In this case, until inflation drops back to normalish levels. 

I'm not seeing any evidence yet there will be significant volumes of repossessions even at the very bottom of this.

Obviously  it won't offset all the falls. However it will offset some of the falls, and if there is lots of different things offsetting a little, they can add up.   

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by mynamehere

[henry the king]

Just now, mynamehere said:

Yes it's a delaying tactic. Just like covid mortgage holidays, which loads of people took. It's only designed to last until 'normal' conditions return. 

In this case, until inflation drops back to normalish levels. 

I'm not seeing any evidence yet there will be significant volumes of repossessions even at the very bottom of this.

 

 

Prices just went down 2.3% in a month with basically zero repossessions. It is a myth you need repossessions for a HPC. It makes no difference. Banks will always switch people to IO or extend terms rather than repossess the house (which would be a last resort) as they want to keep their customer on the hook.

[scottbeard]

15 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Yes it's a delaying tactic. Just like covid mortgage holidays, which loads of people took. It's only designed to last until 'normal' conditions return. 

In this case, until inflation drops back to normalish levels. 

But the whole point is that "normal" conditions are interest rates in a 4-5% range.  That's the normal that we are returning to.  The maths shows that makes houses about 30% less affordable than with rates at 0.1%.

13 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Prices just went down 2.3% in a month with basically zero repossessions. It is a myth you need repossessions for a HPC. It makes no difference. Banks will always switch people to IO or extend terms rather than repossess the house (which would be a last resort) as they want to keep their customer on the hook.

Exactly.  Just plug figures into a mortgage calculator with a rate of 1% and then a rate of 6% and you will see everything you need to see.