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Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved


coypondboy

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HOLA441
53 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

And lead, need lots and lots of lead

Lead won't help you. Lots of lead might shield you from the initial gamma burst, if you are that close but not too close to ground zero. It is the alpha and beta emitting radionuclides that get in your body through ingestion or inhalation, that zap you from the inside that you really want to worry about. What you want is a clean food and water supply/store and a good air filtration system to get clean air into your shelter. 

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HOLA442
6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Well that video shows Russian tanks from this conflict. How many are upgraded to T72B3 do you think?

How many T72s have been upgraded depends on how much you believe Putin. He often uses the technique of including the previous years upgrade figures with this, every year.

Around a 1000 I believe.

A T-72B3 will look like a T-72, especially if its trashed. They don't remodel the turret or most of the defining features.

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HOLA445
6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

There is a video showing the inside of an abandoned BMP and it looks original. Knackered unmodernised. They are modernising tanks but the rest if the stuff, nothing. Its particularly bad with trucks, a few years ago a Russian commentator was lamenting the appalling state of transport in the army. Moving his group 200km was basically impossible, he reckoned.

Russians will aways exaggerate because its far cheaper than doing it and stealing the cash sounds more appealing. 

BMP-2 were modernised and BMP-3 are new.

I'm not having a go but how many pieces of Russian kit have you looked in the back of? Ours had gaffer tape on a few occasions. 

Point two is there are loads of videos of Russian kit with a Z painted on it and supposed to be abandoned Russian gear. Ukraine has many same older models as Russia. Its not a leap of faith to say it should be taken with a massive pinch of salt, if it broke you'd strip it of anything you could carry.

Armour doesn't go anywhere in 1s or 2s so it raises massive alarm bells. That and dedicated repair and recovery would probably get it rolling quickly.

To a lay person it looks plausible I grant you. But a lot doesn't add up.

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HOLA446
34 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

It's gonna really send you into melt down when he wins in 2024 eh..

Yeah, the dettol dumb narcissistic decrepit old bstrd. More like send the world into meltdown with his best mate Putin. 

I see you are still codependent on dettol donny. You'll get over him, eventually. 

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HOLA447
5 hours ago, anonguest said:

WHAT IF the Russians make efforts to intercept/prevent the delivery of those weapons to the Ukrainians?  Would, presumably, mark a dangerous escalation of this conflict, no?   Putin did say for others not to attempt to attack Russia, did he not?  What IF they construe the mere supply of weapons, from outside Ukraine, as a de facto attack on Russia?

No as the Russians will not be shooting at Westerners delivering things as NATO are not that stupid.

Just like Turkey sent another shipment of drones. 

His statement was meaning no troops come and setup a humanitarian mission. Taking on NATO is not in his plans especially while lots of kit arriving.

It was a threat as 'boots on ground' chatter was doing rounds amongst numpty commentators and talking heads.

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HOLA448
Just now, Drat said:

Lead won't help you. Lots of lead might shield you from the initial gamma burst, if you are that close but not too close to ground zero. It is the alpha and beta emitting radionuclides that get in your body through ingestion or inhalation, that zap you from the inside that you really want to worry about. What you want is a clean food and water supply/store and a good air filtration system to get clean air into your shelter. 

I have none of these, but I do have lots of homebrew from a few months ago. 

Ah.. the bit about the shelter.. my local pub has a cellar.

I will proceed there, I have enough cash in my wallet to survive up to 3 days of last orders, and I hope they take sympathy on me after that

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HOLA449
8 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

No as the Russians will not be shooting at Westerners delivering things as NATO are not that stupid.

Just like Turkey sent another shipment of drones. 

His statement was meaning no troops come and setup a humanitarian mission. Taking on NATO is not in his plans especially while lots of kit arriving.

It was a threat as 'boots on ground' chatter was doing rounds amongst numpty commentators and talking heads.

So.....you personally do not see Russia taking ANY steps to prevent foreign weapons arriving/getting into the hands of the Ukrainians? Thereby making Putins goal harder to achieve?

Rifles and small 'dumb' munitions are one thing but what about supposed supply of high tech stuff (do Stinger missiles, and the like, meet that definition?).  That sort of thing requires training/instruction? No?  Who would be doing that?

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4410
3 hours ago, Si1 said:

All of a sudden the UK's two big shiny new aircraft carriers don't look the embarrassing white elephants I thought they might have been.

Still are actually as we can't stick aircraft on them both and can't run a suitable number of surface assets to protect them without tying in most of the surface fleet.

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HOLA4411
7 minutes ago, anonguest said:

So.....you personally do not see Russia taking ANY steps to prevent foreign weapons arriving/getting into the hands of the Ukrainians?

Rifles and small 'dumb' munitions are one things but what about supposed supply of high tech stuff (do Stinger missiles meet that definition?).  That sort of thing requires training/instruction? No?  Who would be doing that?

They have already had training from US and British instructors. 

Much more annoying will be the EU(on live now) announcement that half of Russia's foreign reserves have been now frozen. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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HOLA4413
4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They have already had training from US and British instructors. 

Meaning then, presumably, that the Ukrainians already have these high tech weapons??

Also doesn't clarify your position re: my question:

So.....you personally do not see Russia taking ANY steps to prevent foreign weapons arriving/getting into the hands of the Ukrainians?

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4416
11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Much more annoying will be the EU(on live now) announcement that half of Russia's foreign reserves have been now frozen.

Unless I missed it Russia seems to, by comparison, have been very quiet/slow in retaliating with it's own similarly significant sanctions. That has been a bit surprising to me.

I'm guessing all they really have is 'energy' to threaten with. But that could be economically very significant and disruptive to the West IF they shut off taps completely and abruptly?

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4417
2 hours ago, Grayphil said:

They still went round one by one and asked them what would be there response, by that time the UK had already sent arms.

Germany was shamed into sending a but more than helmets finally

They had to overrule laws enshrined in their constitution. Ones we helped add in

They have let Netherlands ship kit they manufacture and transfer to them.

Just a few facts

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HOLA4421
Just now, Staffsknot said:

Israel is quite close to the Russians now.

That likely explains why they haven't done it yet then  😉 LOL

Shows how out of date with geopolitics I am. I can hardly keep track anymore it's all so fast changing. I could've sworn it wasn't that long ago they were not getting on well ('cos of Syria and such like)

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4422
Just now, slawek said:

Up to 2/3 from 50% yesterday. 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has used two-thirds of the Russian total combat power “he applied to this invasion,” a senior US defense official told reporters Sunday."

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/index.html

Maybe it's the final third we need to worry about? 😉

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HOLA4423
23 minutes ago, anonguest said:

So.....you personally do not see Russia taking ANY steps to prevent foreign weapons arriving/getting into the hands of the Ukrainians? Thereby making Putins goal harder to achieve?

Rifles and small 'dumb' munitions are one thing but what about supposed supply of high tech stuff (do Stinger missiles, and the like, meet that definition?).  That sort of thing requires training/instruction? No?  Who would be doing that?

They may send troops West to cut supply routes or halt the trains. Its about what they'd do. If they hit NATO troops in a NATO country then its a border war and greenlights NATO getting involved.

Stinger has been supplied prior and is familiar weapon and not massively complex tbh. We trained the Mujahadeen on it remember and that was the 80s version.

But its about sending stuff Ukraine already has seen or reloads for what it has.

If Russians blow up trucks carrying them in Ukraine with Ukranian drivers that's nothing NATO can stop.

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HOLA4425
18 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Cash dispensers???

or, trying to work out the acronym.....Anti Tank Mine?

Anti Tank Missile. They were NLAW 1 shot disposable units.

Less complex than a long range ATGM ( Guided) like TOW or MILAN or others we could send. These have reloads - yanks sent some of these type

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