I think we might be wrong about a HPC

[sammersmith]

28 minutes ago, Dweller said:

UP AND UP AND UP  and lenders will just keep lending £60,000 + over the 2020 value? 

When things are going up wildly most people expect it to continue forever. 

We have to look rationally and see that this is a very recent thing and was initially driven by stimulus measures that are no longer present. All that's left now is the sentiment that was a consequence of the stimulus. 

in March 2020 a couple i know wanted to pull out of a purchase because they expected the market would crash imminently. Instead of the expected crash, in the space of a few months sentiment changed completely and it can (and i suspect will) change quickly again. 

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, sammersmith said:

When things are going up wildly most people expect it to continue forever. 

We have to look rationally and see that this is a very recent thing and was initially driven by stimulus measures that are no longer present. All that's left now is the sentiment that was a consequence of the stimulus. 

in March 2020 a couple i know wanted to pull out of a purchase because they expected the market would crash imminently. Instead of the expected crash, in the space of a few months sentiment changed completely and it can (and i suspect will) change quickly again. 

Hi  - I just can't see how it falls the other way. In March 2020 someone buying a £220,000 property would think it could lose 10% or whatever and would think about pulling out. Then there is SO MUCH DEMAND plus talk about property rising YOY that agents overnight  put £25,000 on the value of the £220,000 property. Then EAs find that they have 30 + people are still wanting to view a property so they add another £25,000 to try to limit the viewings. Now anyone selling a property is also gaining £50,000 - £60,000 on the value of their property so can still buy the now hugely inflated properties. Sentiment can change but which EA then says let's take £60,000 off the value, given that anyone selling now needs the £60,000 extra  to buy at these hugely inflated values ? Thus properties that haven't sold for six months have been going up and up and up! 

However, as I asked in the original post, what was going on between 2016-2019  given that according to EAs down South anything over £230,000 was difficult to sell? People selling during those years were getting the equivalent for their properties as other  properties were selling for (just like now ) so why would selling higher priced properties have been difficult then? I just don't get it! 

As properties that have already had £60,000 added to their 2020 value are still getting multiple viewings and bidding wars coupled with an  even lower supply (as people tend not to want to move/sell over Christmas let alone in a pandemic) than with the already low supply plus the talk of interest rate rises I guess this will push this bubble even further as people will want to fix a mortgage  NOW. So will that be an £80,000 increase on an average FTB property by January 2022? So do the mortgage lenders think this is a good investment ? 

[Pop321]

4 hours ago, Dweller said:

Hi  - I just can't see how it falls the other way. In March 2020 someone buying a £220,000 property would think it could lose 10% or whatever and would think about pulling out. Then there is SO MUCH DEMAND plus talk about property rising YOY that agents overnight  put £25,000 on the value of the £220,000 property. Then EAs find that they have 30 + people are still wanting to view a property so they add another £25,000 to try to limit the viewings. Now anyone selling a property is also gaining £50,000 - £60,000 on the value of their property so can still buy the now hugely inflated properties. Sentiment can change but which EA then says let's take £60,000 off the value, given that anyone selling now needs the £60,000 extra  to buy at these hugely inflated values ? Thus properties that haven't sold for six months have been going up and up and up! 

However, as I asked in the original post, what was going on between 2016-2019  given that according to EAs down South anything over £230,000 was difficult to sell? People selling during those years were getting the equivalent for their properties as other  properties were selling for (just like now ) so why would selling higher priced properties have been difficult then? I just don't get it! 

As properties that have already had £60,000 added to their 2020 value are still getting multiple viewings and bidding wars coupled with an  even lower supply (as people tend not to want to move/sell over Christmas let alone in a pandemic) than with the already low supply plus the talk of interest rate rises I guess this will push this bubble even further as people will want to fix a mortgage  NOW. So will that be an £80,000 increase on an average FTB property by January 2022? So do the mortgage lenders think this is a good investment ? 

If you haven’t already done so join a share chat forum and watch one share. You can see this sentiment alter over a month when buying is an absolute no brainer then 2 weeks later (once the price has fallen and the yield is better) suddenly no one buys it despite it being better value…...then a week later everyone is piling in.

Its like a speeded up version of the housing market.

I don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks, months and years but be absolutely rest assured when sentiment drops the market (ignoring asking prices) can offer substantial opportunities. At this moment in time I have seen some really poor purchases…and the odd good one. Keep close to the market, the next few months will give you a good idea of where this is going.

We bought in 1986 when the rises and jumps make this current market look decidedly soft and subdued….it’s happened before and it will happen again. 1991 you literally could not drop the price enough to get a buyer.😉 

[Speed1987]

4 hours ago, Dweller said:

Hi  - I just can't see how it falls the other way. In March 2020 someone buying a £220,000 property would think it could lose 10% or whatever and would think about pulling out. Then there is SO MUCH DEMAND plus talk about property rising YOY that agents overnight  put £25,000 on the value of the £220,000 property. Then EAs find that they have 30 + people are still wanting to view a property so they add another £25,000 to try to limit the viewings. Now anyone selling a property is also gaining £50,000 - £60,000 on the value of their property so can still buy the now hugely inflated properties. Sentiment can change but which EA then says let's take £60,000 off the value, given that anyone selling now needs the £60,000 extra  to buy at these hugely inflated values ? Thus properties that haven't sold for six months have been going up and up and up! 

However, as I asked in the original post, what was going on between 2016-2019  given that according to EAs down South anything over £230,000 was difficult to sell? People selling during those years were getting the equivalent for their properties as other  properties were selling for (just like now ) so why would selling higher priced properties have been difficult then? I just don't get it! 

As properties that have already had £60,000 added to their 2020 value are still getting multiple viewings and bidding wars coupled with an  even lower supply (as people tend not to want to move/sell over Christmas let alone in a pandemic) than with the already low supply plus the talk of interest rate rises I guess this will push this bubble even further as people will want to fix a mortgage  NOW. So will that be an £80,000 increase on an average FTB property by January 2022? So do the mortgage lenders think this is a good investment ? 

I agree, I cannot see the market changing for a couple of years, even with a 1-2% base rate.

Although I believe the rate will remain at 0.1% or go lower, if they don't lower the rate... a new scheme will be introduced to put money into the hands of property owners. They'll use energy and other Inflationary costs to justify the cut or prop.

Millennials are entering the market place right now. There is plenty of cash around, inheritance money and reduced expenditure, all which will pump prices higher.

The government have piled in also, with 95% tax payer backed mortgages.

Inflation is here and with such an increase in the money supply, I cannot see why houses wouldn't rise around 20% over the next 2 years.

 

[highcontrast]

24 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

If you haven’t already done so join a share chat forum and watch one share. You can see this sentiment alter over a month when buying is an absolute no brainer then 2 weeks later (once the price has fallen and the yield is better) suddenly no one buys it despite it being better value…...then a week later everyone is piling in.

Its like a speeded up version of the housing market.

I don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks, months and years but be absolutely rest assured when sentiment drops the market (ignoring asking prices) can offer substantial opportunities. At this moment in time I have seen some really poor purchases…and the odd good one. Keep close to the market, the next few months will give you a good idea of where this is going.

We bought in 1986 when the rises and jumps make this current market look decidedly soft and subdued….it’s happened before and it will happen again. 1991 you literally could not drop the price enough to get a buyer.😉 

This.

8 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I agree, I cannot see the market changing for a couple of years, even with a 1-2% base rate.

Although I believe the rate will remain at 0.1% or go lower, if they don't lower the rate... a new scheme will be introduced to put money into the hands of property owners. They'll use energy and other Inflationary costs to justify the cut or prop.

Millennials are entering the market place right now. There is plenty of cash around, inheritance money and reduced expenditure, all which will pump prices higher.

The government have piled in also, with 95% tax payer backed mortgages.

Inflation is here and with such an increase in the money supply, I cannot see why houses wouldn't rise around 20% over the next 2 years.

 

@Speed1987 lol...your posts are unrelenting and hilarious, i "almost" have a grudging respect. But seriously you have to be a paid shill from uk gov, or the BTL scum union, the estate agents union or a BTL scummer/estate agent yourself? Do tell?

Oh and  @Dweller do you work in the same office as @Speed1987 ? Kinda like a tag team?

[dances with sheeple]

43 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I agree, I cannot see the market changing for a couple of years, even with a 1-2% base rate.

Although I believe the rate will remain at 0.1% or go lower, if they don't lower the rate... a new scheme will be introduced to put money into the hands of property owners. They'll use energy and other Inflationary costs to justify the cut or prop.

Millennials are entering the market place right now. There is plenty of cash around, inheritance money and reduced expenditure, all which will pump prices higher.

The government have piled in also, with 95% tax payer backed mortgages.

Inflation is here and with such an increase in the money supply, I cannot see why houses wouldn't rise around 20% over the next 2 years.

 

Many will just continue to live at home, and will also have had their view of "starter flats" clouded by the horror stories about cladding issues and offshore freeholders just plucking repair bill totals out of their a*rse.

[Speed1987]

1 hour ago, highcontrast said:

This.

@Speed1987 lol...your posts are unrelenting and hilarious, i "almost" have a grudging respect. But seriously you have to be a paid shill from uk gov, or the BTL scum union, the estate agents union or a BTL scummer/estate agent yourself? Do tell?

Oh and  @Dweller do you work in the same office as @Speed1987 ? Kinda like a tag team?

I enjoy challenging delusional ideas,  it's a passion of mine. 

You can open youth centres, to help guide young people, who are possibly making poor decisions.

Whether they'll take that advice or just laugh at you well. As they would say "it is, what it is". Until they are in prison...

I also have a neighbour who insists he will win the lottery, one day.

Rishi has just pumped the housing market, I have plenty of faith he'll continue.

We do have an office, on threadneedle Street. Please visit sometime, we can explain how conservatives think.

Thanks for the respect though.

[winkie]

9 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

I enjoy challenging delusional ideas,  it's a passion of mine. 

You can open youth centres, to help guide young people, who are possibly making poor decisions.

Whether they'll take that advice or just laugh at you well. As they would say "it is, what it is". Until they are in prison...

I also have a neighbour who insists he will win the lottery, one day.

Rishi has just pumped the housing market, I have plenty of faith he'll continue.

We do have an office, on threadneedle Street. Please visit sometime, we can explain how conservatives think.

Thanks for the respect though.

When our main basis of the growth in the economy is property growth, jobs connected with property growth, agents, builders, bankers, furniture makers ect........surely as a nation we are rather top heavy, prehaps we should start investing more into diversity......as they say don't put all eggs in one basket, only has to drop and all eggs are broken.

[winkie]

10 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Many will just continue to live at home, and will also have had their view of "starter flats" clouded by the horror stories about cladding issues and offshore freeholders just plucking repair bill totals out of their a*rse.

Many will, some might decide to buy their starter home somewhere in Europe where the broadband fibre investment is really fast fed straight into homes, the TV is totally internet, the road infastructure is excellent, the CT is low.....the bus and train services are of excellence value........now people can easily work from anywhere?

[dances with sheeple]

5 hours ago, winkie said:

Many will, some might decide to buy their starter home somewhere in Europe where the broadband fibre investment is really fast fed straight into homes, the TV is totally internet, the road infastructure is excellent, the CT is low.....the bus and train services are of excellence value........now people can easily work from anywhere?

Maybe, but there is reason why a lot of young Europeans are fuming about the end of FOM, and it isn`t because they want to live in their own country with all the greatness you describe? You can get internet TV anywhere (who really wants to watch it for long though?) that won`t save some of the EU basket case economies.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

Maybe, but there is reason why a lot of young Europeans are fuming about the end of FOM, and it isn`t because they want to live in their own country with all the greatness you describe? You can get internet TV anywhere (who really wants to watch it for long though?) that won`t save some of the EU basket case economies.

Sorry but mobile internet connection is the pits in many places in the UK......old copper wires to a box.....what you get depends on how far from the box you live.....I am not dissing us, all am saying is it takes ages to do anything, build anything .......cross rail as an example, our energy storage capacity, the growing cost of HS2.......there are small towns in Europe with the best up to date connection......not good enough.

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

Sorry but mobile internet connection is the pits in many places in the UK......old copper wires to a box.....what you get depends on how far from the box you live.....I am not dissing us, all am saying is it takes ages to do anything, build anything .......cross rail as an example, our energy storage capacity, the growing cost of HS2.......there are small towns in Europe with the best up to date connection......not good enough.

The small towns might have no jobs though, the only point of the super fast connection is to book your flight to London! Many EU people were moving to London, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh where the connection is just fine.

[winkie]

10 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

The small towns might have no jobs though, the only point of the super fast connection is to book your flight to London! Many EU people were moving to London, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh where the connection is just fine.

........there are jobs, there are roads, there are trains, there is connection......first things first..... infastructure......good infastructure at a reasonable price encourages people.......people need people, they feed from each other.

People need to earn enough to live......who wants to live in a place with growing inequality, where poor areas and wealthy areas live alongside and one looks down to the other as if they have deserved what they have got......An area of deprivation and low investment, a shit life with little hope........that doesn't make for a cohesive contented society.

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

........there are jobs, there are roads, there are trains, there is connection......first things first..... infastructure......good infastructure at a reasonable price encourages people.......people need people, they feed from each other.

People need to earn enough to live......who wants to live in a place with growing inequality, where poor areas and wealthy areas live alongside and one looks down to the other as if they have deserved what they have got......An area of deprivation and low investment, a shit life with little hope........that doesn't make for a cohesive contented society.

Yes, but what people actually did during FOM doesn`t back up what you said about EU destinations that are off the beaten track to many people?

[winkie]

19 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Yes, but what people actually did during FOM doesn`t back up what you said about EU destinations that are off the beaten track to many people?

First was that wages were a lot higher in the UK......what could be earned in say London from city bonuses and people with cash to burn could go further in home country, the exchange rate good once, so worth earning pounds....other countries would more likely employ their own rather than a foreigner including the British.....there was no competitive advantage.

[dances with sheeple]

7 hours ago, winkie said:

First was that wages were a lot higher in the UK......what could be earned in say London from city bonuses and people with cash to burn could go further in home country, the exchange rate good once, so worth earning pounds....other countries would more likely employ their own rather than a foreigner including the British.....there was no competitive advantage.

Still plenty of people who want to be here, I have spoken to EU nationals recently who are absolutely furious at Brexit and the end of FOM  (they are too young to know that people moved about in Europe before the EU and Android phones of course, LOL)

[satsuma]

Seems to be a fair bit of mania still about regarding propertee, seems to me that the BOE will have to put rates up and cool the brakes.  I can see a total collapse in prices coming in the next few months.  Prices can’t defy gravity.  

[dances with sheeple]

1% base rate would probably crash the housing market now?

[robson1111]

On 10/17/2021 at 7:24 PM, highcontrast said:

you have to be a paid shill from uk gov, or the BTL scum union, the estate agents union or a BTL scummer/estate agent yourself? Do tell?

A big man hiding behind a screen calling people names like a kid in a school playground

[highcontrast]

46 minutes ago, robson1111 said:

A big man hiding behind a screen calling people names like a kid in a school playground

You ok hun? x

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, robson1111 said:

A big man hiding behind a screen calling people names like a kid in a school playground

It's what can happen to a man when he is wrong about something for so many years. He becomes angry that life isn't playing out how he expected / wanted it to, and therefore this anger is projected onto anyone with a different opinion as if they are the reason for all failings. It's the same thought process (if you can call it that) as he had with me the other week. Unable to accept that anyone could deviate from the huge property crash mantra, he resorts to calling people scumlords and all sorts of other nonsense. Unfortunately for people like this they are incapable of deviating from such strongly ingrained beliefs, however often they are proven to be wrong. It's like a religion whereby absolute unwavering fanaticism in the cause is required lest ye burn in hell. 

The fact that he is unable to construct a well reasoned argument, preferring instead to box everything up into neat titles such as estate agent, scumlord, union scum and so on really tells you everything you need to know. When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. 

 

 

[highcontrast]

27 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

The fact that he is unable to construct a well reasoned argument, preferring instead to box everything up into neat titles such as estate agent, scumlord, union scum and so on really tells you everything you need to know. When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. 

U ok hun? x

[wighty]

3 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

It's what can happen to a man when he is wrong about something for so many years. He becomes angry that life isn't playing out how he expected / wanted it to, and therefore this anger is projected onto anyone with a different opinion as if they are the reason for all failings. It's the same thought process (if you can call it that) as he had with me the other week. Unable to accept that anyone could deviate from the huge property crash mantra, he resorts to calling people scumlords and all sorts of other nonsense. Unfortunately for people like this they are incapable of deviating from such strongly ingrained beliefs, however often they are proven to be wrong. It's like a religion whereby absolute unwavering fanaticism in the cause is required lest ye burn in hell. 

The fact that he is unable to construct a well reasoned argument, preferring instead to box everything up into neat titles such as estate agent, scumlord, union scum and so on really tells you everything you need to know. When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. 

 

 

Ha ha, Tell me about it. If this forum was around a few hundred years ago, we'd been burnt at the stake.

Btw don't anyone base their opinions on Poundland crystal balls.

[Dweller]

Thought this summed up the mood of the times nicely....

[wighty]

32 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Thought this summed up the mood of the times nicely....

"what you expect for quarter million, 3 bedrooms?".