Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Ah-so]

"Chef’s parents and brother die from Covid within week after jab refusal

Francis Goncalves, from Cardiff, wants his family’s experience to encourage people to get vaccinated

A man from Cardiff has claimed he lost his mother, father and brother from Covid within a week because all three had chosen not to be jabbed after they were frightened by misinformation from anti-vaxxers."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/chefs-parents-and-brother-die-from-covid-within-week-after-jab-refusal

Another day and more entirely preventable deaths from COVID-19 by people who have lapped up the lies pushed by the anti-vaxxers. While no one is directly responsible, collectively they have blood on their hands. 

[captainb]

6 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Anti-vaccine protesters storm BBC HQ – years after it moved out

Group gain access to old Television Centre in west London, which is now mostly rented by ITV daytime shows

'Not sure what protesters were hoping to achieve, but all they would’ve found was me, Jane, Nadia and Penny on Loose Women talking about the menopause,” she said.'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/confused-anti-vaccine-protesters-storm-bbc-hq-years-after-moved-out

The anti-vaxxers really are very good value for money. I can just imagine these morons thinking that they were attacking the BBC. Yet not a single one of them was well informed enough to realise that the BBC famously vacated the building years ago. 

I went to a restaurant / bar there a while back... It's very, very obvious it's no longer a TV studio.... Aside from the bit on the side, that has a large advert saying loose women and others.

Ah well. Manchester is a long way away.

Chanel 4 is very central though

 

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by captainb

[Arpeggio]

Dr. Zelenko speaks to a Rabbinical court in Jerusalem

He mentions 2 billion deaths, the same number I once did completely hypothetically at the bottom of this post. Depending on how many are getting placebo, it might be off.

[Ah-so]

10 minutes ago, captainb said:

I went to a restaurant / bar there a while back... It's very, very obvious it's no longer a TV studio.... Aside from the bit on the side, that has a large advert saying loose women and others.

Ah well. Manchester is a long way away.

Chanel 4 is very central though

 

 

Most of those who stormed the old BBC office will only be dimly aware of the existence of C4. 

[captainb]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

Dr. Zelenko speaks to a Rabbinical court in Jerusalem

He mentions 2 billion deaths, the same number I once did completely hypothetically at the bottom of this post. Depending on how many are getting placebo, it might be off.

Out of interest, if say there arnt 2 billion deaths.... What's next?

I assume you've sold everything into gold for the collapse of society etc etc

[Arpeggio]

52 minutes ago, captainb said:

Out of interest, if say there arnt 2 billion deaths.... What's next?

I think he mentions over 2 years. As I said it depends on how many are getting placebo. Your reply was quick enough that you've obviously not watched the video.

52 minutes ago, captainb said:

I assume you've sold everything into gold for the collapse of society etc etc

You should be OK as you've had both jabs so will be given a vaccine passport, so long as you keep it up to date with further injections to continue your allowances.

I doubt a collapse of society is the most desired route over a relatively smoother transition to exactly the things I have been warning about over a year ago and called a conspiracy theorist for, which are being pushed for now.

If anything the "collapse" will be a managed controllable event on the individual level in which you are no longer permitted the things you were previously allowed to do, should you have 2nd thoughts about your 3rd, 4th etc. injection. The longevity of this scenario can be interpreted as is 3 weeks to flatten the curve.

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Arpeggio

[FallingAwake]

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

"Chef’s parents and brother die from Covid within week after jab refusal

Tragic though these stories of death are, what's the point of them? They just serve to confirm gotta-vaxx'ers own biases, while not even making an effort to address any of the so-called "misinformation" from the anti-vaxxers.

Also, this comment from the guy:

"The message I want to get out is why would the government want to hurt you by giving you a vaccine? What is the purpose behind it?"

Sigh.

Let's tweak this a little...

"The message I want to get out is why would the government want to hurt you by [constantly pushing house prices up?] What is the purpose behind it?"

Governments are for the people, right?

Same with the drug companies. They only have your best interests at heart, right?

Forgive me for being cynical here.

But no, I don't believe the Boris Johnson government is out to kill me. And neither are Pfizer or Moderna, in my opinion.

But I still choose to wait until this large trial is fully conducted and the long term results are in (as they do with EVERY OTHER VACCINE), before deciding whether I want to put it in my body.

It's nothing to do with Bill Gates and everything to do with what I consider to be sensible caution over a type of vaccine (mRNA) which has never been available before.

Let's just stop the hysteria of blaming others for people's personal choices. We don't see this hysteria over the flu, which kills tens of thousands each year.

Yes, I know. Covid is NOT the flu. Lots of people get Covid and don't even know they have it, while it knocks others senseless and kills them.

I'd say we're in the midst of an equally dangerous pandemic... that of hysteria.

 

[Arpeggio]

Researchers Identify Groups Hesitant About COVID-19 Vaccine

"Hesitancy held constant in the most educated group (those with a Ph.D.); by May Ph.D.’s were the most hesitant group."

and I would imagine, anyone that doesn't have PhD, yet with a high IQ. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jun/02/dont-use-john-nash-schizophrenia-a-beautiful-mind-promote-anti-psychotics

 

2 hours ago, captainb said:

I assume you've sold everything into gold for the collapse of society etc etc

In addition to my below answer.

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

I doubt a collapse of society is the most desired route over a relatively smoother transition to exactly the things I have been warning about over a year ago and called a conspiracy theorist for, which are being pushed for now.

If anything the "collapse" will be a managed controllable event on the individual level in which you are no longer permitted the things you were previously allowed to do, should you have 2nd thoughts about your 3rd, 4th etc. injection. The longevity of this scenario can be interpreted as is 3 weeks to flatten the curve

I've not much an idea of Christopher Langan (16th down) but he says similar:  https://yournews.com/2021/06/19/2159968/smartest-man-in-america-breaks-down-global-elites-vaccine-sterilization/

“A mass human die-off would be traumatic and threaten the status quo,” Langan explained. “If the human population crashes and the economy follows suit, the elite will have nothing, no innate superiority or adaptivity, that might protect them and conduce to their survival. Hence, they prefer mass sterilization and a slower (but still rapid) population decline.”

James Woods is also on the Insider article and he is a critic of much of this too.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Arpeggio

[scottbeard]

11 hours ago, Riedquat said:

That's a fair point, the argument that it's for the staff who are in the shop all day is not unpersuasive.

I thought to catch COVID off someone you basically had to stand within 2 metres of them for over 15 minutes in a confined space.

Is that really likely in most shops?

Maybe in a shoe shop where staff have to be close to the customers, and they take a while to be served.  Masks make sense there.  But my local Tesco is so big it's like an aircraft hanger....and I don't go and stand next to a random employee for 15 minutes.  I can't see the value of masks there - even if a proportion of customers have COVID I can't see them passing it on to the staff.

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

But I still choose to wait until this large trial is fully conducted and the long term results are in (as they do with EVERY OTHER VACCINE), before deciding whether I want to put it in my body.

It's nothing to do with Bill Gates and everything to do with what I consider to be sensible caution over a type of vaccine (mRNA) which has never been available before.

I fully support your right not to have a vaccine if you don't want one.

I do slightly question your logic...because:

1. How long term is "long term results"?  Even for a "normal" vaccine the trials might last 5 years but a typical human lives for 80, so lifespans greatly exceed the period tested.  

2. And of course flu vaccines are tweaked every year...so whilst flu vaccines overall aren't new each year's vaccine has a trial period shorter than the COVID ones.  Sometimes they get it wrong - like 2015 when it didn't really work very well and tens of thousands more than usual died.

3.  Not all the COVID vaccines are mRNA ones.  AstraZeneca's, for example, isn't.  So if mRNA was an issue you could always attend an AZ drop in clinic?

But as I said upfront, I totally agree it should be your choice.  I have been vaccinated, but I totally disagree with the idea of shaming or discriminating against those who haven't.

[Riedquat]

9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I thought to catch COVID off someone you basically had to stand within 2 metres of them for over 15 minutes in a confined space.

Is that really likely in most shops?

Maybe in a shoe shop where staff have to be close to the customers, and they take a while to be served.  Masks make sense there.  But my local Tesco is so big it's like an aircraft hanger....and I don't go and stand next to a random employee for 15 minutes.  I can't see the value of masks there - even if a proportion of customers have COVID I can't see them passing it on to the staff.

No, it's not likely, but lots of people passing through near you over the course of the day could be a similar net effect to being near someone with it for 15 minutes or so (it's not as if it's likely to be cumulative in time mind you, just the same chance per minute AFAICT, so lots of brief exposures over a long period could carry the same risk as one prolonged but overall shorter exposure). It'll depend on the general infection levels in the population of course.

I'm still not terribly convinced, and unless the supermarket is very crowded the chances of passing it from customer to customer seem low, but it's not an unreasonable argument when it comes to staff. Which isn't to say I'm sure it's right, but it doesn't have the almost religious "masks save people!" rhetoric that seems to drive most.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Riedquat

[scottbeard]

2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

No, it's not likely, but lots of people passing through near you over the course of the day could be a similar net effect to being near someone with it for 15 minutes or so (it's not as if it's likely to be cumulative in time mind you, just the same chance per minute AFAICT, so lots of brief exposures over a long period could carry the same risk as one prolonged but overall shorter exposure). It'll depend on the general infection levels in the population of course.

I think it *is* cumulative, because it's all about the "viral load" i.e. you need to have enough viruses passed over to you to create an infection....could be from 2 people.  So that suggests if the shop is pokey then masks might make sense.

I still don't see it as necessary in cavernous supermarkets though - the roof of my local sainsbury's and tesco must be about 30 feet high, so the volume of air in those shops must be huge.  The chances of enough COVID reaching an employee before the virus dies out seems pretty slim.  

[MARTINX9]

3 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Anti-vaccine protesters storm BBC HQ – years after it moved out

Group gain access to old Television Centre in west London, which is now mostly rented by ITV daytime shows

'Not sure what protesters were hoping to achieve, but all they would’ve found was me, Jane, Nadia and Penny on Loose Women talking about the menopause,” she said.'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/confused-anti-vaccine-protesters-storm-bbc-hq-years-after-moved-out

The anti-vaxxers really are very good value for money. I can just imagine these morons thinking that they were attacking the BBC. Yet not a single one of them was well informed enough to realise that the BBC famously vacated the building years ago. 

Do we know for certain what they were after - the Telegraph states they 'were thought to be anti vax protestors'.

Perhaps they were protesting against trashy low budget daytime telly?!!

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/09/anti-vaxxers-target-bbc-protest-building-broadcaster-left/

[Flat Bear]

On 07/08/2021 at 16:27, Flat Bear said:

Just to add Farr's law obviously applies to the averages.

Has anyone else noticed the almost exact similarity of the waves of the Spanish flu and covid?

Spanish flu timeline just over 2 years, 3 main waves, varied from countries/areas. Uncannily similar to covid.

As we now know the Spanish flu was never eradicated but stays with us in lesser deadly forms. It is likely Covid will go the same way. 

If the pattern continues to conclusion the countries earliest affected and with the most infections (or possibly vaccinations instead of infections?) will be through the third and final third wave in early 2022.

The mistake made was that some people believed the virus could be defeated or even contained, where the truth is the virus was always going to run its course to conclusion. 

The human race needs to understand there are so many things that we cannot control, and nature will take its course no matter what we try and do. 

[FallingAwake]

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

1. How long term is "long term results"?  Even for a "normal" vaccine the trials might last 5 years but a typical human lives for 80, so lifespans greatly exceed the period tested.  

Good question. I was talking about the wider trial on the population at large. That some people receive placebo jabs indicates that the population as a whole are indeed participating in a trial. I guess that will last until the pandemic dies down, and covid becomes another background virus we have to deal with.

At the moment, there seems to be quite a lot of smoke and mirrors about the pandemic. For example, natural immunity vs artificial immunity, herd immunity, alternative treatments or preventatives. All of those discussions essentially got closed down or marginalized once the vaccines were given emergency approval. (Apparently even the Centers for Disease Control have rewritten the definition of "herd immunity" to only mention vaccines... although I still have to fact-check that one for myself.) This contributes to my scepticism.

I do believe there's a legitimate case for vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable, and for anybody who chooses to get vaccinated, assuming the vaccines work as intended and don't do anything harmful to the body on a long-term basis. To date, I'm not confident about that assumption and I don't have a current timescale for when that will change
 

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

2. And of course flu vaccines are tweaked every year...so whilst flu vaccines overall aren't new each year's vaccine has a trial period shorter than the COVID ones.  Sometimes they get it wrong - like 2015 when it didn't really work very well and tens of thousands more than usual died.

I suppose the one difference is, each flu vaccine isn't substantially different from the previous one. I presume there's quite a big difference between the flu vaccine, and the covid one? Otherwise they'd have just given people the flu vaccine or a tweak of it.

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

3.  Not all the COVID vaccines are mRNA ones.  AstraZeneca's, for example, isn't.  So if mRNA was an issue you could always attend an AZ drop in clinic?

I'll look into the differences.

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

But as I said upfront, I totally agree it should be your choice.  I have been vaccinated, but I totally disagree with the idea of shaming or discriminating against those who haven't.

Thanks. Nice to hear a voice of reason.

[Flat Bear]

5 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Has anyone else noticed the almost exact similarity of the waves of the Spanish flu and covid?

Spanish flu timeline just over 2 years, 3 main waves, varied from countries/areas. Uncannily similar to covid.

As we now know the Spanish flu was never eradicated but stays with us in lesser deadly forms. It is likely Covid will go the same way. 

If the pattern continues to conclusion the countries earliest affected and with the most infections (or possibly vaccinations instead of infections?) will be through the third and final third wave in early 2022.

The mistake made was that some people believed the virus could be defeated or even contained, where the truth is the virus was always going to run its course to conclusion. 

The human race needs to understand there are so many things that we cannot control, and nature will take its course no matter what we try and do. 

[captainb]

3 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

Good question. I was talking about the wider trial on the population at large. That some people receive placebo jabs indicates that the population as a whole are indeed participating in a trial. I guess that will last until the pandemic dies down, and covid becomes another background virus we have to deal with.

At the moment, there seems to be quite a lot of smoke and mirrors about the pandemic. For example, natural immunity vs artificial immunity, herd immunity, alternative treatments or preventatives. All of those discussions essentially got closed down or marginalized once the vaccines were given emergency approval. (Apparently even the Centers for Disease Control have rewritten the definition of "herd immunity" to only mention vaccines... although I still have to fact-check that one for myself.) This contributes to my scepticism.

I do believe there's a legitimate case for vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable, and for anybody who chooses to get vaccinated, assuming the vaccines work as intended and don't do anything harmful to the body on a long-term basis. To date, I'm not confident about that assumption and I don't have a current timescale for when that will change
 

I suppose the one difference is, each flu vaccine isn't substantially different from the previous one. I presume there's quite a big difference between the flu vaccine, and the covid one? Otherwise they'd have just given people the flu vaccine or a tweak of it.

I'll look into the differences.

Thanks. Nice to hear a voice of reason.

???

 

[zugzwang]

7 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Researchers Identify Groups Hesitant About COVID-19 Vaccine

"Hesitancy held constant in the most educated group (those with a Ph.D.); by May Ph.D.’s were the most hesitant group."

and I would imagine, anyone that doesn't have PhD, yet with a high IQ. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jun/02/dont-use-john-nash-schizophrenia-a-beautiful-mind-promote-anti-psychotics

 

In addition to my below answer.

I've not much an idea of Christopher Langan (16th down) but he says similar:  https://yournews.com/2021/06/19/2159968/smartest-man-in-america-breaks-down-global-elites-vaccine-sterilization/

“A mass human die-off would be traumatic and threaten the status quo,” Langan explained. “If the human population crashes and the economy follows suit, the elite will have nothing, no innate superiority or adaptivity, that might protect them and conduce to their survival. Hence, they prefer mass sterilization and a slower (but still rapid) population decline.”

James Woods is also on the Insider article and he is a critic of much of this too.

 

This guy is the smartest man in America? He sounds like an eleven year old having a temper tantrum about his homework.

Quote

“Instead of upgrading humankind, they are degrading it, relying on a combination of public ignorance, misplaced trust, and dead-end ideas and ideologies like atheism, materialism, communism, multiculturalism and forced ethnic ‘diversification’, tyrannical ‘global governance’ to snooker humanity into compliance,” Langan wrote.

 

[Ah-so]

6 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Do we know for certain what they were after - the Telegraph states they 'were thought to be anti vax protestors'.

Perhaps they were protesting against trashy low budget daytime telly?!!

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/09/anti-vaxxers-target-bbc-protest-building-broadcaster-left/

Perhaps they were leading a petition to make Greta Thunberg Prime minister. Perhaps they were protesting for the ethical treatment of guinea pigs. 

Or perhaps they were doing what the newspapers said they were doing. 

It's funny, the anti-vaxxers get upset when the media doesn't give anti-vax protests full (to their mind) coverage, yet when this one was covered, the claim is suddenly that "perhaps" they were doing something else. 

Now why would that be?

[Will!]

8 hours ago, FallingAwake said: 

But I still choose to wait until this large trial is fully conducted and the long term results are in (as they do with EVERY OTHER VACCINE), before deciding whether I want to put it in my body.

You’re the control group.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

16 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

This guy is the smartest man in America? He sounds like an eleven year old having a temper tantrum about his homework.

 

Never underestimate the childishness of an academic getting his paper or research slighted by other academics. 🤣

[Will!]

7 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

Good question. I was talking about the wider trial on the population at large. That some people receive placebo jabs indicates that the population as a whole are indeed participating in a trial. I guess that will last until the pandemic dies down, and covid becomes another background virus we have to deal with.

At the moment, there seems to be quite a lot of smoke and mirrors about the pandemic. For example, natural immunity vs artificial immunity, herd immunity, alternative treatments or preventatives. All of those discussions essentially got closed down or marginalized once the vaccines were given emergency approval. (Apparently even the Centers for Disease Control have rewritten the definition of "herd immunity" to only mention vaccines... although I still have to fact-check that one for myself.) This contributes to my scepticism.

Let's have some evidence then.

I'll help you out with the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/terms/glossary.html#c

Quote

Community immunity: A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity.

 

[vadst43]

talking of control groups

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/08/06/this-is-nuts-moderna-and-pfizer-intentionally-lost-the-clinical-trial-control-group-testing-vaccine-efficacy-and-safety/

[captainb]

7 minutes ago, vadst43 said:

talking of control groups

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/08/06/this-is-nuts-moderna-and-pfizer-intentionally-lost-the-clinical-trial-control-group-testing-vaccine-efficacy-and-safety/

You mean after the vaccine was authorized, the control group having performed its role in the trial were informed and given the actual vaccine..

Is this news?

[FallingAwake]

5 hours ago, captainb said:

???

 

Sorry, I was misinterpreting MP's comments on placebos given to test groups. I thought they were talking about the population as a whole. They weren't.