Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Arpeggio]

10 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

To me, indirect compulsion would be irritating. Direct, enforced compulsion, would be intolerable.

This difference of view between indirect and direct compulsion correlates with my above progress example. This will be the route they take.

"This will net more people to take injections who would otherwise disagree / fight back against being pinned down."

[Huggy]

2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

And lines that shouldn't be crossed. Mandatory medical treatment is one of those.

"Public interest" is one of those justifications that's all too easy to throw around and attempts to shut down dissenting views (along with "it's about helping others", which is just an attempt at trying to paint anyone who disagrees as automatically selfish and who should therefore not be listened to anyway). All the public is is a large number of individuals.

"For the people!"

No, vaccines should not be forced onto people. They should be a requirement for doing certain jobs, care homes etc, but enforced medical procedures are, I agree, a line that shouldn't be crossed.

I don't think it should be mandatory for everyone to have a pilot's licence, but guess what group of people I think it should be made compulsory to have one for their jobs?

In general, I'm not sure what the excitement about vaccine passports is? Other countries have not done so exceptionally well as us in defeating the virus, but they have every right to demand one of us anyway otherwise a minority will be going over the channel and killing loads of people just for a holiday. There's a bit of friendly rivalry going on between us and the continent, but that's a bit strong. Anyway, I need a normal passport and driving licence for my activities out there so a 3rd piece of paper isn't going to kill me.

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, Huggy said:

"For the people!"

No, vaccines should not be forced onto people. They should be a requirement for doing certain jobs, care homes etc, but enforced medical procedures are, I agree, a line that shouldn't be crossed.

I don't think it should be mandatory for everyone to have a pilot's licence, but guess what group of people I think it should be made compulsory to have one for their jobs?

In general, I'm not sure what the excitement about vaccine passports is? Other countries have not done so exceptionally well as us in defeating the virus, but they have every right to demand one of us anyway otherwise a minority will be going over the channel and killing loads of people just for a holiday. There's a bit of friendly rivalry going on between us and the continent, but that's a bit strong. Anyway, I need a normal passport and driving licence for my activities out there so a 3rd piece of paper isn't going to kill me.

A reverse of the dynamic last year when thousands of middle-class Typhoid Marys returned from the continent breathing death all over their fellow countrymen.

[Riedquat]

5 minutes ago, Huggy said:

"For the people!"

No, vaccines should not be forced onto people. They should be a requirement for doing certain jobs, care homes etc, but enforced medical procedures are, I agree, a line that shouldn't be crossed.

I don't think it should be mandatory for everyone to have a pilot's licence, but guess what group of people I think it should be made compulsory to have one for their jobs?

In general, I'm not sure what the excitement about vaccine passports is? Other countries have not done so exceptionally well as us in defeating the virus, but they have every right to demand one of us anyway otherwise a minority will be going over the channel and killing loads of people just for a holiday. There's a bit of friendly rivalry going on between us and the continent, but that's a bit strong. Anyway, I need a normal passport and driving licence for my activities out there so a 3rd piece of paper isn't going to kill me.

Compulsion in order to do a particular task can sometimes be justified - like the pilot's licence. So a good argument could be made for it for vaccination being necessary for care home workers (just as long as it remains an exception, current situation only, and no precedent set). Any form of compulsion merely as a result of existing in the country you're born in is something I'll never agree with (things like a driving licence are only required if you drive, it's not compulsory to drive, even though for many it's a practical necessity).

WRT to vaccine passports exactly what is meant by them seems to change from time to time. It's up to any given country what criteria they want to set for people to enter it, so I don't really see that as too much of a problem. It's the idea of one for going about fairly ordinary, routine activities in this country that (rightly) rubs some people up the wrong way.

[captainb]

9 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Compulsion in order to do a particular task can sometimes be justified - like the pilot's licence. So a good argument could be made for it for vaccination being necessary for care home workers (just as long as it remains an exception, current situation only, and no precedent set). Any form of compulsion merely as a result of existing in the country you're born in is something I'll never agree with (things like a driving licence are only required if you drive, it's not compulsory to drive, even though for many it's a practical necessity).

WRT to vaccine passports exactly what is meant by them seems to change from time to time. It's up to any given country what criteria they want to set for people to enter it, so I don't really see that as too much of a problem. It's the idea of one for going about fairly ordinary, routine activities in this country that (rightly) rubs some people up the wrong way.

I'm moderately enjoying the hypocrisy in the press. 

Horror as brits requested for vaccine passports or have to quareintine on entry to x country. Its against my rights! 

Why are we not ensuring everyone foreign for enters quareintines in a hotel at their cost? Its ridiculous! 

[Orb]

44 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I am talking about compulsion by the government, ie law backed up by force.

 

I know you were talking about government, which is why I was curious about employer. But if, and I emphasise if employers/clients were legally able (but not legally required) to demand it, what would you do if you were then required to take it? I'm just very curious in people's decisions and choices. 

[Bruce Banner]

37 minutes ago, Orb said:

I know you were talking about government, which is why I was curious about employer. But if, and I emphasise if employers/clients were legally able (but not legally required) to demand it, what would you do if you were then required to take it? I'm just very curious in people's decisions and choices. 

Hypothetically, I would refuse. But that, as someone who ran his own business, is my mindset.

Edited March 9, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[nightowl]

Did any one else see Valance & Witty in front of the Science committee this morning?

Sadly it didnt involve Oprah asking the questions on primetime this one, but MPs whose questions would have labelled them "Covid Deniers" on here for purely have the cheek to ask them - many were around the data Sage generate and how it now related to the roadmap out of lockdown which is a subject close to my heart.....

Crucially PV and CW distanced themselves from the 30K dead coming out of lockdown number claiming they "didnt want to get stuck on numbers", despite being able to use number predictions to justify lockdowns but not so when coming out 🤔 

Also declined to go into the assumptions the models were using despite hinting they hadn't factored in the vaccine roll out efficiency, and were still using European countries as a precursor to what happens here, despite the now huge disparity in vaccination roll outs.  

They were asked why once the vulnerable are vaccinated why not unlock, pointed out the vaccine wasnt 100% reliable but still couldn't explain the 30K number when asked repeatably.

They were asked what data would justify speeding up the roadmap but declined to answer.

Both PV and CW said they didn't think zero covid is doable, but wouldnt say what 'low' covid actually equates to though.

[nightowl]

2 hours ago, Orb said:

I know you were talking about government, which is why I was curious about employer. But if, and I emphasise if employers/clients were legally able (but not legally required) to demand it, what would you do if you were then required to take it? I'm just very curious in people's decisions and choices. 

umm interesting one.  Contractually they have no ability to, but its legally required by gov then its not their decision at that point anyway.  I suspect the 20 somethings would go for it though, but the 40 somethings are the most skeptical of the gov and the nudge units efforts, and few over 60s there anyway.  30s and 50s are more wavering.  As a quirk of timing my employer has ambitious growth plans so may not want to risk losing people and/or undermining morale & relations, but who knows.

[Confusion of VIs]

9 hours ago, nightowl said:

Peer reviewed science?!?!? What are you on about? As everyone keeps saying it would either required a time machine or political system few want.

The time machine is needed to wind back time to implement a LOCKOUT which is effectively what NZ did given they had sufficient warning of what was coming and have a stronger concept of a border.

Covid arrived in the UK via other European countries well before we knew, so making the LOCKOUT idea too late.

As for imperial guilt should we punish modern Italy for the Roman invasion? France for the Normans of 1066?  Norway for the Viking raids? Before you get wound up it's not that relavent to this thread but something to ponder.

If you want to live under Chinese rules and oppression someone in Hong Kong will swap paces with you. 

This is complete nonsense.

In the early days NZ was actually in a worse position than the UK. The difference was that, once they decided to move, they acted more quickly and more decisively. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand#cite_note-2

Quote

The first case of the disease in New Zealand was reported on 28 February 2020. As of 9 March 2021, the country has had a total of 2,409 cases (2,053 confirmed and 356 probable[a]). 26 people have died from the virus, with cases recorded in all twenty district health board (DHB) areas.[1] The pandemic peaked in early April 2020, with 89 new cases recorded per day and 929 active cases.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

44 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Did any one else see Valance & Witty in front of the Science committee this morning?

Sadly it didnt involve Oprah asking the questions on primetime this one, but MPs whose questions would have labelled them "Covid Deniers" on here for purely have the cheek to ask them - many were around the data Sage generate and how it now related to the roadmap out of lockdown which is a subject close to my heart.....

Crucially PV and CW distanced themselves from the 30K dead coming out of lockdown number claiming they "didnt want to get stuck on numbers", despite being able to use number predictions to justify lockdowns but not so when coming out 🤔 

Also declined to go into the assumptions the models were using despite hinting they hadn't factored in the vaccine roll out efficiency, and were still using European countries as a precursor to what happens here, despite the now huge disparity in vaccination roll outs.  

They were asked why once the vulnerable are vaccinated why not unlock, pointed out the vaccine wasnt 100% reliable but still couldn't explain the 30K number when asked repeatably.

They were asked what data would justify speeding up the roadmap but .

declined to answer.

Both PV and CW said they didn't think zero covid is doable, but wouldnt say what 'low' covid actually equates to though.

Prior to agreeing the forecasts and advice to government SAGE took their experts through the models and assumptions behind those forecasts (hence the leaks).  It took six hours talking to a roomful of  PhDs.

Are you seriously suggesting that Whitty and Co should have attempted to reprise this in a 60 second slot at a public briefing. 

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, nightowl said:

Crucially PV and CW distanced themselves from the 30K dead coming out of lockdown number claiming they "didnt want to get stuck on numbers", despite being able to use number predictions to justify lockdowns but not so when coming out 🤔

It will be whatever they want it to be as long as people keep watching BBC etc. and the lies about cases / PCR tests. Have you seen what Witty et al. have recently said about Autumn Winter 2021?

Added to the picture now the never used before in human vaccines, which make the body into its own viral protein factory, by definition Autoimmunity. As per previous tests such as the ones on animals, most died when exposed to pathogen due to Autoimmune Dependent Enhancement (long term).

WHO database now at 212,147 Adverse reactions for "COVIC-19 Vaccine" (search term).

http://vigiaccess.org/

The geographical distribution is 84% Europe (178,077). UK MHRA Yellow card scheme is 191,832. Knowing that the UK is more injected than its European neighbors might suggest many of these on the WHO database are UK adverse reactions.

Some may think that being bed ridden for 7 days or not being able to walk properly after having their injection (as i have seen written on here) is a case of "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger"  but it doesn't work like that for allopathic medicine, or in this case genetic engineering.

Edited March 9, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Megadebt]

7 hours ago, Riedquat said:

No it isn't. Vaccination is not high risk. It's not zero risk, but there's no reason to believe it's high. The hypothetical possibility alone of potentially severe results based on "well, something vaguely similar has happened before" does not make a risk high. A high risk is one where both the probability of it happening is high and the severity of the outcome is. For example being hit by a meteorite is a low risk because the severity of outcome is high but the probability low. The risk from a paper cut is low because the probability is high but the severity low. In neither case is the risk zero. A high risk would be blasting around busy streets as fast as possible - a high chance of something going wrong with a severe result.

Treating any level of risk and uncertainty as a high risk is an all too common mistake and leads to equating vastly different risks, or even getting them completely the wrong way around. Covid vs vaccination is a very good example of this.

Demanding absolute certainty before doing anything means you'll never do anything.

 ok we agree on the high incidence part as billions will be 'jabbed' ,  but the long term risks purely speulation on both our parts here; we can't know. 

 

5 hours ago, markyh said:

They will just erase it and replace it with a deepfake of you going willingly. 

 

 

4 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Until the government, categorically and irrevocably, state that Covid vaccination will not be made compulsory, I will continue to ignore invitation letters to have it, two so far.

I have no choice as I feel really strongly about the compulsion issue and would be unable to take a stand against something I'd already had.

I reiterate that I consider the vaccines to be safe and efficacious, but I am vehemently against compulsion and will resist it even though I maybe/am putting my life at risk.

 

 As someone who questions authority and has an anarchist streak,  I'm really trying to guard myself against that sort of reaction: I get your point but it is quite illogical, as Dr Spock might concur.

  just like swampy chaining himself to the JCB's  back in the good old days of civil unrest.  'Fark You I won't do what you tell me!   "

 

4 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

  Having carefully considered Megadebt's careful analysis and superieor intellect I'm quite ashamed to have even questioned his  wisdom and now consider tha matter closed

ok mate  Peace      

 

[Bruce Banner]

46 minutes ago, Megadebt said:

 

 As someone who questions authority and has an anarchist streak,  I'm really trying to guard myself against that sort of reaction: I get your point but it is quite illogical, as Dr Spock might concur.

  just like swampy chaining himself to the JCB's  back in the good old days of civil unrest.  'Fark You I won't do what you tell me!   "

 

Render unto Spock that which is Spock's. It is a small gesture and the equally small risk is acceptable to me. "A little rebellion now and then is a good thing". 

Edited March 10, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[Arpeggio]

2 minutes ago, Megadebt said:

Having realized Arpeggio isn't taking me seriously, I moved to emotional hussy fit which Arpeggio also ignored.

In the following post I am not taking up Arpeggios offer to prove that I am not lying, as contrary to invitation I am not showing examples of the posts I am claiming Arpeggio made. This is something that is more objective and could easily be done, if such posts exist, yet I choose not to.

In this post I am calling Arpeggio feeble opposition, even though I am paying Arpeggio lots more attention than Arpeggio is of me, can't back up my lies (as above), rarely post any references and post emotional hissy fits, just like on these two recent examples.

 

Now I have resorted to putting words into Arpeggios mouth by pretend quoting this, as though Arpeggio said it:

"Having carefully considered Megadebt's careful analysis and superieor intellect I'm quite ashamed to have even questioned his  wisdom and now consider tha matter closed".

I hope he finally pays me some attention.

You are amazing, 5 stars.

[Bruce Banner]

1 hour ago, nightowl said:

Did any one else see Valance & Witty in front of the Science committee this morning?

Sadly it didnt involve Oprah asking the questions on primetime this one, but MPs whose questions would have labelled them "Covid Deniers" on here for purely have the cheek to ask them - many were around the data Sage generate and how it now related to the roadmap out of lockdown which is a subject close to my heart.....

 

Indeed I did.

So many on this thread are ready to jump down one's throat for daring to question any part of the current government Covid strategy, or lack of it.

[Riedquat]

28 minutes ago, Megadebt said:

 ok we agree on the high incidence part as billions will be 'jabbed' ,  but the long term risks purely speulation on both our parts here; we can't know.

A lack of certainty does not mean there are equal probabilities of any outcome or that we have complete ignorance. We have no reason to believe that the long-term risks are high. Just because we can't say for definite is not just cause to worry that they might be.

Certainty never exists in reality.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Indeed I did.

So many on this thread are ready to jump down one's throat for daring to question any part of the current government Covid strategy, or lack of it.

No we are just bored of half baked moaning about it from people lacking either the inclination or knowledge to question it.

After c**king everything up for the past year the government has at last got a defensible strategy. Plenty to question but at least there is a strategy that is looking further ahead than tomorrow's headlines.     

 

[Bruce Banner]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No we are just bored of half baked moaning about it from people lacking either the inclination or knowledge to question it.

After c**king everything up for the past year the government has at last got a defensible strategy. Plenty to question but at least there is a strategy that is looking further ahead than tomorrow's headlines.     

 

It is not necessary to have in depth knowledge of the science to question the political motive behind it. 

Yet again, I must reiterate that I consider the vaccines to be safe and efficacious, but I am vehemently opposed to compulsion which this government refuses to rule out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/16/matt-hancock-refuses-rule-making-covid-19-vaccine-mandatory/

 

[captainb]

7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This is complete nonsense.

In the early days NZ was actually in a worse position than the UK. The difference was that, once they decided to move, they acted more quickly and more decisively. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand#cite_note-2

 

Here we go, all islands are the same claptrap again. 

How exactly were they in a worse position given geography and the situation in Italy at the time? If arbitrary known case count is your only metric given the total lack of testing that's poor. 

New Zealand with one international airport, 2 weeks by boat to anywhere and tiny number of citizens abroad at any one time shutting down entry is a rather different proposition to the UK with 500k in Europe, a total reliance on the roll on roll off ferry land bridge to France see chaos on shutting for 24hours before Christmas and Heathrow which as one airport sees more passenger traffic than the whole of NZ... But yet. All islands are the same. 

Isle of Mann did rather well with their lockdown.. Suggest its on a different scale, but we can all pretend all island are the same. 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by captainb

[captainb]

Wayhay.. People are finally starting to question the effectiveness of a test and trace system where 80% of those contacted don't bother to self isolate.. As being human this disease perceived risk to them is so low they won't bother, "if I start to feel sick ill bother". 

But... Despite that.. Here's 37billion of resource over 2 years. Who ever needed resources for other diseases or even other things like education. No cost benefit required with covid. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56340831

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by captainb

[Ah-so]

12 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

I have 2 explanations for this:

1. The "Weapons of Mass Destruction" are not 1000s of miles away, they are under the skin.

2. When it comes to something so critical and personal as ones own health, what is under the skin, your very organs etc. the concept of being betrayed is inconceivable.........so.......it is not conceived.

Anyhow, I put this into the rather awkward and complicated VAERS database, which I have worked out. It mostly accounts for the US:

COVID19 vaccination > Death > from 1980 until now (3 months since release) and got 1265

14 types of flu vaccination (all of them AFAICT) > Death > from 1980 till now and got 1900

I already know that the database is taking deaths off for COVID injections as a few weeks ago it went from over 1000 to just less.

Even if you don't factor in how no more than 1% of adverse reactions are reported, this is quite an astounding comparison for something that has only been out for 3 months.

And this is the "edited" version?

What was the original like?

[nightowl]

8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Prior to agreeing the forecasts and advice to government SAGE took their experts through the models and assumptions behind those forecasts (hence the leaks).  It took six hours talking to a roomful of  PhDs.

Are you seriously suggesting that Whitty and Co should have attempted to reprise this in a 60 second slot at a public briefing. 

This wasnt a 60sec briefing but elected MPs asking the same question I do here, along with others.  

Essentially they have modelling data to justifying lockdown but not so to get out. Ummm.

It was all very polite and civilised( unlike some people here-hint hint) but "not wanting to get drawn into numbers" seemed a telling reply from witty.  There was a bit of frustration from the MPs at CWs swerving on the 30k number you are so keen to quote.

[skinnylattej]

14 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

I'm not asking anything, merely responding to your question.

One thing I do know is that if forced vaccination is introduced, and the government refuses to categorically rule it out, I will make sure that my security cameras are set to record me being dragged out of my house in handcuffs.

Yet again, I must reiterate that I consider the vaccines to be safe and efficacious, but I am vehemently against compulsion.

Another option is that the government put the un-vaccinated under house arrest to keep them safe.

[skinnylattej]

13 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

I am talking about compulsion by the government, ie law backed up by force.

 

What would be your response if the airline industry required passengers to be vaccinate before taking a flight?

One of the main reasons that I agreed to be vaccinated is that I believe that there is a high chance that a "no jab, no flight" policy is likely, and I want to be able to travel again.