29929BlackTuesday Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Here in Worcestershire an estate agent I know has basically said offer prices (when they get one at all) are well well below the asking price. But there is a standoff. 12 viewings in one week. So, these asking price surveys are a load of rubbish when it comes to handing over real money. The boomers have stopped moving. The young buy new builds. I'm calling a short post-Brexit period of prices rising then slowly and inexorably creeping down. Saw-tooth style. Interesting to note that lenders are basically not lending to self-employed anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, 29929BlackTuesday said: Here in Worcestershire an estate agent I know has basically said offer prices (when they get one at all) are well well below the asking price. But there is a standoff. 12 viewings in one week. So, these asking price surveys are a load of rubbish when it comes to handing over real money. The boomers have stopped moving. The young buy new builds. I'm calling a short post-Brexit period of prices rising then slowly and inexorably creeping down. Saw-tooth style. Interesting to note that lenders are basically not lending to self-employed anymore. is this anecdotal or first hand experience? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giesahoose Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Up in Scotland things are still going to closing date and selling over home report value in the areas I've been looking. Hopefully we're just lagging a bit behind the rest of the UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Oof Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 From the Guardian: "Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it was possible annual prices would go into decline before long" Looking at that graph I would say yes, it's possible ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidan Ap Word Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) Wow! Joy unending everyone - the average house has "earned" 210 GBP in a year, that's 56p per day! Loving the mad gainz. National Avg Jan 18 - 211,756 National Avg Jan 19 - 211,966 Edited January 31, 2019 by Aidan Ap Word Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidan Ap Word Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Aidan Ap Word said: Wow! Joy unending everyone - the average house has "earned" 200 GBP in a year, that's 55p per day! Loving the mad gainz. Spin this you VIs! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 32 minutes ago, Trump Invective said: From the Guardian: "Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it was possible annual prices would go into decline before long" Looking at that graph I would say yes, it's possible ? ? Allowing one's self to dream by extrapolating the the past four months we'd be talking -2% by the end of spring.. Interesting that, just as November / December seemed to represent the "oh shit" moment of realisation for many (domestically tanking retail spending and vehicle sales, manufacturing demand down massively in Germany and China, various other tales of woe globally) so this appears to be mirrored in the acceleration of declines in house price value. Long may it continue! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said: is this anecdotal or first hand experience? First hand Hurle. In process of selling up myself and had lots of views and offers 15% under. Went up for sale 2yrs ago but had to pull out as my dad ran himself over with his own tractor (true and yes he survived - thank you Air Ambulance). Offered 250 and 255 same day when that happened. Now having another go and 230 if we're lucky. We have had to ask owners of houses we're looking at if they would be prepared to do the same - most say no - would rather wait... The estate agent is pulling his hair out trying to convince them to accept. If only to get things moving. This is the most clear I've ever seen it and I think after a short upswing after BRINO there will be a freefall. The dodgy money and the financial services are moving out of the SE of England back to where they came from. I'll keep you posted on how it all goes here if you are interested. In Worcestershire, s%%tholes are still with asking prices far in excess of their worth - I'm talking derelict semis on ex-council estates going for £195. Not selling and no viewers - we were the only ones to look at the above last week. When the EA asked if we were doer-uppers and we said 'no - to live in' she didn't understand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said: is this anecdotal or first hand experience? Sorry - just noticed your bold text bit. That was in the papers a week or so ago I believe. Sunday Times? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangefender Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 The year on year is encouraging but if I’ve interpreted correctly prices haven’t really moved since June ‘17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Trump Invective said: Oof Wow, that looks awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Trump Invective said: "Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it was possible annual prices would go into decline before long" It is reassuring we have such critical thinking on our side, no wonder we pay top dollar. Thank God these great brains saw the GFC from so far away. We are blessed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougless Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said: It is reassuring we have such critical thinking on our side, no wonder we pay top dollar. Thank God these great brains saw the GFC from so far away. We are blessed. Indeed we are and we should be grateful that these insightful people are in positions of influence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voice of Doom Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 hours ago, ftb_fml said: Excellent. More good news looking at the data; the rate of change in annual "growth" seems to be accelerating nicely (8 months last year at 2-3%, then 2 months at 1-2% and so far 2 months at 0-1%), plus last Feb was 0.5% MoM so much short of this value next month will see the annual figure become negative.. which should be a nice driver of sentiment and really kick-start the feedback doom-loop! Feedback doom-loop. I like that. And I like the top-of-the-rollercoaster stuff too. I still think there are enough crumbs of comfort data-wise for people to convince themselves there isnt going to be a big correction soon but every month seems to remove some of them. 2019 is going to be very interesting indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulip_mania Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Last Feb was a drop on last Jan so it will need a negative Monthly to get Annual negative, March however ?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Ghostly said:firms going bust left right and centre. Sounds perfect. Decent, family supporting jobs, replaced by zero hour contracts, and the Joe’s still take on debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear.getting.old Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Ghostly said: Yeah, solid employment growth such as Tesco cutting thousands of jobs, JLR and Ford doing the same, Santander doing the same, npower cutting 900, M&S closing stores, firms going bust left right and centre. Sounds perfect. That might be but the overall jobs market very good, more jobs are being created than are being lost as we have higher in work numbers than when records began and unemployment at record lows. Until you see overall unemployment rise, there is nothing to see here. Before someone comes along and says yeah its all part time... the figures say a record number of full time jobs and zero hours contacts are lower in number now Edited January 31, 2019 by bear.getting.old Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear.getting.old Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, 29929BlackTuesday said: First hand Hurle. In process of selling up myself and had lots of views and offers 15% under. Went up for sale 2yrs ago but had to pull out as my dad ran himself over with his own tractor (true and yes he survived - thank you Air Ambulance). Offered 250 and 255 same day when that happened. Now having another go and 230 if we're lucky. We have had to ask owners of houses we're looking at if they would be prepared to do the same - most say no - would rather wait... The estate agent is pulling his hair out trying to convince them to accept. If only to get things moving. This is the most clear I've ever seen it and I think after a short upswing after BRINO there will be a freefall. The dodgy money and the financial services are moving out of the SE of England back to where they came from. I'll keep you posted on how it all goes here if you are interested. In Worcestershire, s%%tholes are still with asking prices far in excess of their worth - I'm talking derelict semis on ex-council estates going for £195. Not selling and no viewers - we were the only ones to look at the above last week. When the EA asked if we were doer-uppers and we said 'no - to live in' she didn't understand. Relative selling their house In SE, 4 months on market only 3 viewings, no offers. Cut price by 10k, still no viewings. I think its a brexit fear buyers strike. The EA sold to rent a year ago so that says it all. Edited January 31, 2019 by bear.getting.old Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear.getting.old Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 11 hours ago, pizza said: Only after their ‘seasonal adjustment’. The actual change is a reduction. I never knew what the ‘seasonal adjustment’ was. Is it factoring in inflation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said: Relative selling their house In SE, 4 months on market only 3 viewings, no offers. Cut price by 10k, still no viewings. I think its a brexit fear buyers strike. The EA sold to rent a year ago so that says it all. Indeed - IMO can't get much more of an enormous flashing red warning light than that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said: I am interested as to hours per FTE (I heard it was in the teens!), and average pay per hour, compared to before the GFC, a decade ago, when emergency measures were introduced and still remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said: is this anecdotal or first hand experience? Its probably sensible - most self employed are building trades. Not a good bet... What seems to be happening is theres a massuve gulf between prime lending - 4 lte, large deposit and proven employment. And the rest - self employed, low deposit. The market for the latter is tiny now. If you can stub up 30%, borrown under 3 lte then you can get an insanely cheap mortgage. If you heed to borrow over 4x and tgeres a wrinkle in your financial status then you cant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) . Edited January 31, 2019 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) Nice headlines today: House prices after Brexit: Why you shouldn’t wish for the market to crash ?https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/house-prices-after-brexit-uk-crash-how-affect-first-time-buyers/ House price growth at near six-year lowhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47063224 UK house prices stagnate ahead of Brexit - Nationwidehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-houseprices-nationwide/uk-house-prices-stagnate-ahead-of-brexit-nationwide-idUKKCN1PP0OV UK house price growth grinds to halt as Brexit uncertainty biteshttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-latest-property-market-flat-brexit-uncertainty-nationwide-a8755766.html House prices stagnate ahead of Brexithttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-prices-stagnate-ahead-brexit/ UK house price growth stagnates on back of Brexit concernshttps://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/31/uk-house-price-growth-stagnates-on-back-of-brexit-concerns Edited January 31, 2019 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore typo's and details Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.