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Nationwide Jan 2019

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Here in Worcestershire an estate agent I know has basically said offer prices (when they get one at all) are well well below the asking price. But there is a standoff. 12 viewings in one week.

So, these asking price surveys are a load of rubbish when it comes to handing over real money.

The boomers have stopped moving. The young buy new builds.

I'm calling a short post-Brexit period of prices rising then slowly and inexorably creeping down. Saw-tooth style.

Interesting to note that lenders are basically not lending to self-employed anymore.

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20 minutes ago, 29929BlackTuesday said:

Here in Worcestershire an estate agent I know has basically said offer prices (when they get one at all) are well well below the asking price. But there is a standoff. 12 viewings in one week.

So, these asking price surveys are a load of rubbish when it comes to handing over real money.

The boomers have stopped moving. The young buy new builds.

I'm calling a short post-Brexit period of prices rising then slowly and inexorably creeping down. Saw-tooth style.

Interesting to note that lenders are basically not lending to self-employed anymore.

is this anecdotal or first hand experience?

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Up in Scotland things are still going to closing date and selling over home report value in the areas I've been looking. 

Hopefully we're just lagging a bit behind the rest of the UK

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From the Guardian: "Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it was possible annual prices would go into decline before long"

 

Looking at that graph I would say yes, it's possible 😂

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Wow! Joy unending everyone - the average house has "earned" 210 GBP in a year, that's 56p per day!

Loving the mad gainz.

 

 

 

National Avg Jan 18 - 211,756
National Avg Jan 19 - 211,966

Edited by Aidan Ap Word

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32 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

From the Guardian: "Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it was possible annual prices would go into decline before long"

 

Looking at that graph I would say yes, it's possible 😂

😛

Allowing one's self to dream by extrapolating the the past four months we'd be talking -2% by the end of spring..

Interesting that, just as November / December seemed to represent the "oh shit" moment of realisation for many (domestically tanking retail spending and vehicle sales, manufacturing demand down massively in Germany and China, various other tales of woe globally) so this appears to be mirrored in the acceleration of declines in house price value. Long may it continue!

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2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

is this anecdotal or first hand experience?

First hand Hurle.

In process of selling up myself and had lots of views and offers 15% under. Went up for sale 2yrs ago but had to pull out as my dad ran himself over with his own tractor (true and yes he survived - thank you Air Ambulance). Offered 250 and 255 same day when that happened. Now having another go and 230 if we're lucky. We have had to ask owners of houses we're looking at if they would be prepared to do the same - most say no - would rather wait... The estate agent is pulling his hair out trying to convince them to accept. If only to get things moving.

This is the most clear I've ever seen it and I think after a short upswing after BRINO there will be a freefall. The dodgy money and the financial services are moving out of the SE of England back to where they came from. 

I'll keep you posted on how it all goes here if you are interested.

In Worcestershire, s%%tholes are still with asking prices far in excess of their worth - I'm talking derelict semis on ex-council estates going for £195. Not selling and no viewers - we were the only ones to look at the above last week. When the EA asked if we were doer-uppers and we said 'no - to live in' she didn't understand.

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

 "Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said it was possible annual prices would go into decline before long"

It is reassuring we have such critical thinking on our side,  no wonder we pay top dollar.  Thank God these great brains saw the GFC from so far away.  We are blessed.

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5 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

It is reassuring we have such critical thinking on our side,  no wonder we pay top dollar.  Thank God these great brains saw the GFC from so far away.  We are blessed.

Indeed we are and we should be grateful that these insightful people are in positions of influence.

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4 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

Excellent.

More good news looking at the data; the rate of change in annual "growth" seems to be accelerating nicely (8 months last year at 2-3%, then 2 months at 1-2% and so far 2 months at 0-1%), plus last Feb was 0.5% MoM so much short of this value next month will see the annual figure become negative.. which should be a nice driver of sentiment and really kick-start the feedback doom-loop!

Feedback doom-loop. I like that. And I like the top-of-the-rollercoaster stuff too.

I still think there are enough crumbs of comfort data-wise for people to convince themselves there isnt going to be a big correction soon but every month seems to remove some of them. 2019 is going to be very interesting indeed.

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10 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

It said this uncertainty among buyers was outweighing the otherwise positive backdrop of "solid employment growth, stronger wage growth and continued low borrowing costs".

Yeah, solid employment growth such as Tesco cutting thousands of jobs, JLR and Ford doing the same, Santander doing the same, npower cutting 900, M&S closing stores, firms going bust left right and centre. Sounds perfect.

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2 hours ago, Ghostly said:

Yeah, solid employment growth such as Tesco cutting thousands of jobs, JLR and Ford doing the same, Santander doing the same, npower cutting 900, M&S closing stores, firms going bust left right and centre. Sounds perfect.

That might be but the overall jobs market very good, more jobs are being created than are being lost as we have higher in work numbers than when records began and unemployment at record lows. Until you see overall unemployment rise, there is nothing to see here.

Before someone comes along and says yeah its all part time... the figures say a record number of full time jobs and zero hours contacts are lower in number now

Edited by bear.getting.old

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8 hours ago, 29929BlackTuesday said:

First hand Hurle.

In process of selling up myself and had lots of views and offers 15% under. Went up for sale 2yrs ago but had to pull out as my dad ran himself over with his own tractor (true and yes he survived - thank you Air Ambulance). Offered 250 and 255 same day when that happened. Now having another go and 230 if we're lucky. We have had to ask owners of houses we're looking at if they would be prepared to do the same - most say no - would rather wait... The estate agent is pulling his hair out trying to convince them to accept. If only to get things moving.

This is the most clear I've ever seen it and I think after a short upswing after BRINO there will be a freefall. The dodgy money and the financial services are moving out of the SE of England back to where they came from. 

I'll keep you posted on how it all goes here if you are interested.

In Worcestershire, s%%tholes are still with asking prices far in excess of their worth - I'm talking derelict semis on ex-council estates going for £195. Not selling and no viewers - we were the only ones to look at the above last week. When the EA asked if we were doer-uppers and we said 'no - to live in' she didn't understand.

Relative selling their house In SE, 4 months on market only 3 viewings, no offers. Cut price by 10k, still no viewings. I think its a brexit fear buyers strike. The EA sold to rent a year ago so that says it all.

Edited by bear.getting.old

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17 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Relative selling their house In SE, 4 months on market only 3 viewings, no offers. Cut price by 10k, still no viewings. I think its a brexit fear buyers strike. The EA sold to rent a year ago so that says it all.

Indeed - IMO can't get much more of an enormous flashing red warning light than that!

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10 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

is this anecdotal or first hand experience?

Its probably sensible - most self employed are building trades. Not a good bet...

What seems to be happening is theres a massuve gulf between prime lending - 4 lte, large deposit and proven employment.

And the rest - self employed, low deposit.

The market for the latter is tiny now.

If you can stub up 30%, borrown under 3 lte then you can get an insanely cheap mortgage.

If you heed to borrow over 4x and tgeres a wrinkle in your financial status then you cant.

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