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House Price Crash Forum
rantnrave

Nationwide Jan 2019

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I am waiting for falls, sizable falls, and then the biggest con since liar loans, "It's happening all because of Brexit".

Imagine all the people that will be let off the hook, Blair & Brown, Banks, Kirsty, those that were taken in by the illusionary wealth and borrowed too much

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7 hours ago, btd1981 said:

Thursday becoming Friday would surprise me 😛

Good spot. Got ahead of myself there confusing the end of the month with the end of the week. Now corrected.

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It’s a stand off. Just need no deal Brexit, and the whole thing will implode. Millennials need to get on board with WTO Brexit and their dreams of affordable homes will become reality.

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Oooh right at the point on the roller coaster after the long climb at the start where the clicking stops and you start to see the rapid fall coming, love it. I class anyone who think this will just plateau in the same deluded thinking camp as flat earthers.

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Quote

The Nationwide said it was likely that the recent slowdown in the market was due to "the impact of the uncertain economic outlook on buyer sentiment".

It said this uncertainty among buyers was outweighing the otherwise positive backdrop of "solid employment growth, stronger wage growth and continued low borrowing costs".

you can roll a sh1t in glitter, but its still a sh1t

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I just could not see this being anything but a fall today, and I just cannot see anything but falls now for months and months to come, even years. People are going to blame Brexit, but we finally see the fallout from Blair and Browns governments. 

You noticed how the media are reporting this in a way they would if inflation or unemployment rose or the £ plummeted, the BBC are the worst

Edited by localhero1983

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At least the momentum is hugely downward.

Perhaps the worst is still to come, in most areas I am interested in the pattern is mostly the same: new places are listed at starting prices that pretend the recent falls have not happened, they don't shift and end up cutting prices by up to 10%, some of them go but a lot still don't. 

Not all places follow this trend, I have seen a minority simply not try and get what others have got and price their properties under that, these get snapped up pretty quickly. 

Hopefully this type of stuff is still to be factored in. 

 

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Annual growth slows to 0.1%

That's the biggy for me... Houses are the same price they were a year ago. And all the signs are they will start getting cheaper. Anyone with sense who is selling will need to drop their price quicker than those they're competing with. Anyone buying will wait to see how much they can save.

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I liked this bit on the BBC report:

'Earlier in January, a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) found their members thought the outlook for the housing market over the next three months was the worst for 20 years.

A net balance of 28% of RICS members expected sales to fall, the most downbeat reading since records started in October 1998.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47063224

 

This chimes with a letter from a local estate agent that came through the door this week.  It was saying that a 7% fall in house prices was a good reason to trade up as it was going to be cheaper.  The letter even included a financial illustration.  Prices are falling kids - its a good time to take on more debt.

Edited by dougless

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Up 0.3% monthly

Only after their ‘seasonal adjustment’.  The actual change is a reduction.

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Excellent.

More good news looking at the data; the rate of change in annual "growth" seems to be accelerating nicely (8 months last year at 2-3%, then 2 months at 1-2% and so far 2 months at 0-1%), plus last Feb was 0.5% MoM so much short of this value next month will see the annual figure become negative.. which should be a nice driver of sentiment and really kick-start the feedback doom-loop!

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8 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

is it usually only 2 pages long?

Yes, although at the end of each quarter there is usually a longer version

Edited by rantnrave

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1 hour ago, LetsBuild said:

Oooh right at the point on the roller coaster after the long climb at the start where the clicking stops and you start to see the rapid fall coming, love it. I class anyone who think this will just plateau in the same deluded thinking camp as flat earthers.

Who remembers the Real House Prices visualised as a roller coaster video?

From about 9 or 10 years ago.

Would love to see that updated, as we’re already in the real falls stage. The clicking has stopped and the wind is in our hair...

Edit: This is US one: 

 

Annoyingly it stops in 2006, just before a huge downturn...!

Edited by neon tetra
Maybe remembered wrongly

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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