Any questions r4 12th October

[Trump Invective]

An online estate agent entrepreneur young chap stated pretty confidently that there is a bubble in London and the se and the 'affordable' end of the London market will drop 10-20% in the next year. Dimbleby pushed pretty hard to get that info out of him, but the ea didn't seem too bothered about admitting it.

[nome]

Getting sick of hearing that it's only London and the se that has bubble house prices... here in North Wales average house prices are easily 10x average local earnings....that's if you're lucky enough to actually find or have a job here  in the first place.

Edited October 13, 2018 by nome

[Burbujista]

5 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

An online estate agent entrepreneur young chap stated pretty confidently that there is a bubble in London and the se and the 'affordable' end of the London market will drop 10-20% in the next year. Dimbleby pushed pretty hard to get that info out of him, but the ea didn't seem too bothered about admitting it.

I am not surprised. It’s aligned with what some of the stock prices seem to suggest (check Land Securities plc share price, for example) and the fact that interest rates will increase in the next year.

[adarmo]

3 hours ago, Burbujista said:

I am not surprised. It’s aligned with what some of the stock prices seem to suggest (check Land Securities plc share price, for example) and the fact that interest rates will increase in the next year.

I must say, I am surprised provided we're talking about prices in GBP and not any other currency. 

First, that an estate agent saying any confidently can be interpreted as the messenger of things to come. 

Second, Land Securities' share price (for example) fell by 80% between 2007 and 2009 yes I believe the max movement in property was -20%. That company is in the commercial investment and development side of real estate so I do not think it a good proxy for residential property prices. Look at Berkeley homes which might be more appropriate for the premium new homes side of things. 

Sure, we all feel property is too expensive and especially so in London but that's a 'feel'. I've maintained for some time that without a real forced seller position (mass unemployment, big interest rate increases, biblical plague etc) we won't see 20% price adjustments. 

Everyone harps on about Brexit but if it's a total disaster imagine the monetary policy response. If it's a wonderful success on the sunlit uploads of the British Empire 2.0 then fab. 

Just my 2p

 

[Burbujista]

1 hour ago, adarmo said:

I must say, I am surprised provided we're talking about prices in GBP and not any other currency. 

First, that an estate agent saying any confidently can be interpreted as the messenger of things to come. 

Second, Land Securities' share price (for example) fell by 80% between 2007 and 2009 yes I believe the max movement in property was -20%. That company is in the commercial investment and development side of real estate so I do not think it a good proxy for residential property prices. Look at Berkeley homes which might be more appropriate for the premium new homes side of things. 

Sure, we all feel property is too expensive and especially so in London but that's a 'feel'. I've maintained for some time that without a real forced seller position (mass unemployment, big interest rate increases, biblical plague etc) we won't see 20% price adjustments. 

Everyone harps on about Brexit but if it's a total disaster imagine the monetary policy response. If it's a wonderful success on the sunlit uploads of the British Empire 2.0 then fab. 

Just my 2p

 

I agree with most of the things you have written, but I think that the force sellers won’t be working class people. They will be foreign buyers who will panick sell when they realise that all the prime cities sell off (Chinese people in particular see property as speculation, they are not in for the “long term”), overextended buy-to-let landlords, construction companies that hold too many “luxury apartments” and excess supply if the pound sinks even more and immigrants leave the UK.

In fact, I think that the most likely scenario is the following:

As you suggest in your post, the British pound could fall. This would make immigrants leave to go other countries. If this happens, wages would rise as the job market reaches full employment and that would create huge pressure to raise interest rates. At the same time, the devaluation and tariffs would also put pressure on inflation, giving the Bank of England no other option that hike interest rates quickly. BTLers suffering voids and potential buyers not being able to buy because banks refuse to lend.

[Fromage Frais]

5 hours ago, adarmo said:

I must say, I am surprised provided we're talking about prices in GBP and not any other currency. 

First, that an estate agent saying any confidently can be interpreted as the messenger of things to come. 

Second, Land Securities' share price (for example) fell by 80% between 2007 and 2009 yes I believe the max movement in property was -20%. That company is in the commercial investment and development side of real estate so I do not think it a good proxy for residential property prices. Look at Berkeley homes which might be more appropriate for the premium new homes side of things. 

Sure, we all feel property is too expensive and especially so in London but that's a 'feel'. I've maintained for some time that without a real forced seller position (mass unemployment, big interest rate increases, biblical plague etc) we won't see 20% price adjustments. 

Everyone harps on about Brexit but if it's a total disaster imagine the monetary policy response. If it's a wonderful success on the sunlit uploads of the British Empire 2.0 then fab. 

Just my 2p

 

Good properties  in short supply still selling... In Norfolk one of the ripple out edges.

mediocre/Crap falling now esp crap with work to be done not a lot but falling back to last sold (300/350) from asking (400/450)

This tells me the prime person can just about get things done and only really wants a house thats tickety boo.

Weather this is a proper fall (breaking las sold prices from a few years ago) or just a reduction in asking prices that were never realistic remains to be seen.

Before the summer agents would inform me "lots of interest will sell" and now after the summer it's "vendor has loads of money and is not desperate to sell".... translation I know its not worth it but I cannot afford to take an offer. 

 

Edited October 13, 2018 by Fromage Frais

[Burbujista]

2 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Good properties  in short supply still selling... In Norfolk one of the ripple out edges.

mediocre/Crap falling now esp crap with work to be done not a lot but falling back to last sold (300/350) from asking (400/450)

This tells me the prime person can just about get things done and only really wants a house thats tickety boo.

Weather this is a proper fall (breaking las sold prices from a few years ago) or just a reduction in asking prices that were never realistic remains to be seen.

Before the summer agents would inform me "lots of interest will sell" and now after the summer it's "vendor has loads of money and is not desperate to sell".... translation I know its not worth it but I cannot afford to take an offer. 

 

I disagree with your first sentence, prime houses in short supply are NOT selling. Two of my colleagues have really nice houses for sale (both with a 750k valuation, one around Guildford and the other in Kent). They have no buyers after 8 months. When they asked the real estate agents, they say that market is slow due to Brexit and that there are no problems with their properties. Both are waiting to see if things improve, but they are quite nervous as they expected to move out soon. None of them is particularly cash rich either.

It would be anecdotal if it wasn’t because the estate agents confirm that it’s a market issue.

[dougless]

4 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

I disagree with your first sentence, prime houses in short supply are NOT selling. Two of my colleagues have really nice houses for sale (both with a 750k valuation, one around Guildford and the other in Kent). They have no buyers after 8 months. When they asked the real estate agents, they say that market is slow due to Brexit and that there are no problems with their properties. Both are waiting to see if things improve, but they are quite nervous as they expected to move out soon. None of them is particularly cash rich either.

It would be anecdotal if it wasn’t because the estate agents confirm that it’s a market issue.

I would agree with this.  I know of people who can't sell modest houses in the Reading area.  Just heard of some properties in Wales (which is meant to be more buoyant than the South East) have been unsold for 18 months.  The contagion has spread further and faster than I was expecting.  This crash may just end up being much bigger and faster than the one in the 90's.

[Si1]

1 hour ago, dougless said:

I would agree with this.  I know of people who can't sell modest houses in the Reading area.  Just heard of some properties in Wales (which is meant to be more buoyant than the South East) have been unsold for 18 months.  The contagion has spread further and faster than I was expecting.  This crash may just end up being much bigger and faster than the one in the 90's.

Tories. The party of economic competence.

[eric pebble]

3 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Good properties  in short supply still selling... In Norfolk one of the ripple out edges.

mediocre/Crap falling now esp crap with work to be done not a lot but falling back to last sold (300/350) from asking (400/450)

This tells me the prime person can just about get things done and only really wants a house thats tickety boo.

Weather this is a proper fall (breaking las sold prices from a few years ago) or just a reduction in asking prices that were never realistic remains to be seen.

Before the summer agents would inform me "lots of interest will sell" and now after the summer it's "vendor has loads of money and is not desperate to sell".... translation I know its not worth it but I cannot afford to take an offer. 

 

"Weather"?????  Yes, the weather is not great -- but -- ...."WEATHER"????????  

I can only think that you mean "WHETHER". 

[Fromage Frais]

2 hours ago, Burbujista said:

I disagree with your first sentence, prime houses in short supply are NOT selling. Two of my colleagues have really nice houses for sale (both with a 750k valuation, one around Guildford and the other in Kent). They have no buyers after 8 months. When they asked the real estate agents, they say that market is slow due to Brexit and that there are no problems with their properties. Both are waiting to see if things improve, but they are quite nervous as they expected to move out soon. None of them is particularly cash rich either.

It would be anecdotal if it wasn’t because the estate agents confirm that it’s a market issue.

Norfolk is not near or like those places.

People actually have jobs in those places and those jobs pay over 30k in many cases.  Here if you do not get relocated in the Public sector the pay cuts can be brutal.  We have a lesser average pay rate than Derby 453£ per week.

The people buying in my area already have sold in those areas it may as well be brits buying in Thailand.

Ie if they are falling there they are slowing down or stalling here I would say 6-12 months behind.

Norfolk falls last but falls furthest as I was told.

Edited October 13, 2018 by Fromage Frais

[Fromage Frais]

54 minutes ago, eric pebble said:

"Weather"?????  Yes, the weather is not great -- but -- ...."WEATHER"????????  

I can only think that you mean "WHETHER". 

It's those six fingers on the phone again

[dougless]

18 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Norfolk is not near or like those places.

People actually have jobs in those places and those jobs pay over 30k in many cases.  Here if you do not get relocated in the Public sector the pay cuts can be brutal.  We have a lesser average pay rate than Derby 453£ per week.

The people buying in my area already have sold in those areas it may as well be brits buying in Thailand.

Ie if they are falling there they are slowing down or stalling here I would say 6-12 months behind.

Norfolk falls last but falls furthest as I was told.

I have noticed that for East Anglia in general; they are the last to go up in price and the last to come down.  A friend lives in Saxmundham (20 miles north of Ipswich) and it has been surprisingly buoyant over the last five years and there is little employment in the area.  Having said that, Sax is now starting to stall - its all good news from East Anglia at the moment.

[Habeas Domus]

from 36 minutes here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/play/m0000pfg

Online estate agent Akshay Ruparelia: There will be a correction in London and the south east market where young people will start to actually hit the milestone where they can afford a property

Dimbleby: How, how much would you guestimate that the property market for affordable homes, not the very top end will fall over the next year or two?

Online estate agent Akshay Ruparelia: I think quite rationally in the London and the south east region we can see a 10 to 20%

Dimbleby: 10 to 20% drop! which would transform the market presumably if you were on a lower income.

Online estate agent Akshay Ruparelia: absolutely

Then followed the usual BS discussion about house building.

Then at 40:00 Dimbleby asks Tom Pursglove MP how long it would take until people on average salaries of £20/30/40K would be able to buy a house with a 10% deposit. Tom didn't give a direct answer but waffled on about help to buy and stamp duty cuts which Labour voted against.

[scottbeard]

On ‎13‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 16:11, Si1 said:

Tories. The party of economic competence.

That's just a cheap dig at the Tories.

We are headed for the next global recession - nothing to do with the Tories, or even the UK.  Since March 2009 every market in every country has done well, and now after almost a decade of growth it's that time of the business cycle when things turn down again. 

That would be the case whichever party was in power in the UK.

Only Gordon Brown was arrogant enough to think he could put an end to boom and bust; in reality boom and bust will always happen, and you can't just blame whoever's holding the parcel when "bust" inevitably returns.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

56 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

That's just a cheap dig at the Tories.

A Party that imposed austerity in order... to what exactly?

 

[Wayward]

1 hour ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

A Party that imposed austerity in order... to what exactly?

 

Have you seen how much debt the nation has accumulated during these years of austerity..? Any reasonable person's definition of austerity I think would involve cutting back not cutting loose.

[macca13]

1 hour ago, Wayward said:

Have you seen how much debt the nation has accumulated during these years of austerity..? Any reasonable person's definition of austerity I think would involve cutting back not cutting loose.

Top 10% have never been so rich..

The problem with the Tories is they have created policies to keep the rich rich.. but damage and privatise what little is left of our public services.. 

They are the party of keeping people in poverty and turning millionaires into billionaires.. 

too much corruption in the Tory party.. They are not in the best interest of the majority of the people.. 

[Wayward]

13 hours ago, macca13 said:

Top 10% have never been so rich..

The problem with the Tories is they have created policies to keep the rich rich.. but damage and privatise what little is left of our public services.. 

They are the party of keeping people in poverty and turning millionaires into billionaires.. 

too much corruption in the Tory party.. They are not in the best interest of the majority of the people.. 

Yes I would agree with that...except I think you are over stating the 'damage' to public services.  Government spending is higher than ever..Hard to reconcile that with a narrative of 'austerity'.  You would think it might have fallen a little...?

[happyguy]

18 hours ago, scottbeard said:

On 13/10/2018 at 16:11, Si1 said:

Tories. The party of economic competence.

That's just a cheap dig at the Tories.

We are headed for the next global recession - nothing to do with the Tories, or even the UK.  Since March 2009 every market in every country has done well, and now after almost a decade of growth it's that time of the business cycle when things turn down again. 

That would be the case whichever party was in power in the UK.

Only Gordon Brown was arrogant enough to think he could put an end to boom and bust; in reality boom and bust will always happen, and you can't just blame whoever's holding the parcel when "bust" inevitably returns.

Yes the Labour party is hardly renowned for financial and an understanding of business 

14 hours ago, macca13 said:

Top 10% have never been so rich..

The problem with the Tories is they have created policies to keep the rich rich.. but damage and privatise what little is left of our public services.. 

They are the party of keeping people in poverty and turning millionaires into billionaires.. 

A number of recent reports state a narrowing of income disparity

If you look at the Times rich list many are entrepreneurs who have created a business and made it successful

I am not envious of such people good luck to them 

[MinistryMan]

I posted a few weeks back about a postwar doer-upper in North Wales 25mins from Chester, 4bed, good size garden, up for £500k+ and still unsold a year later. They then split the plot last year - 310k house, 115k garden.

Last week it finally changed hands and we spoke to the new neighbours. Their offer was £250k for the lot with a bit of cash??!!! (We actually new this already).

New owner told me the EA had to tell the seller to come down to £250k to enable the first time buyer ISA to kick in. As soon as they did the offers came in.

Local EA says similar. A 180-200k new build box will go in weeks. Priced above that (and needing a small amount of work, even basic modernising) will stick. So maybe we’re finding the level around here, as nearly everything is over £300k and nothing much appears to be moving.

[macca13]

8 hours ago, happyguy said:

If you look at the Times rich list many are entrepreneurs who have created a business and made it successful

I am not envious of such people good luck to them 

Otherwise known as tax dodgers..

There is enough documentation of this too prove it true.. 

Also as I know a millionaire biusiness owner he will tell you that WHO you know is very important to securing contracts.. And a few expensive dinners and employing said person also helps to pull in the big money..

So self made not so sure.. 

jeremy Hunt is a great example of this.. His rise to the top is riddled with people giving him a push.. 

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/10/10/revealed-at-last-the-hunt-bottomley-link/

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

On ‎14‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 21:51, Wayward said:

Any reasonable person's definition of austerity I think would involve cutting back not cutting loose.

The real World.  A couple of years ago, my Mum's hip declined quickly, to the stage to get out of bed involved pain killers, and she couldn't walk.  On the NHS, a replacement would have been months, because of cuts  - luckily, she went Private in weeks.  Real pain, real people - not a spreadsheet.  Austerity whoop-e-do.