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House Price Crash Forum

Habeas Domus

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Everything posted by Habeas Domus

  1. The vast majority of people living in London cant afford to buy, they can barely afford rent. This is due to decades of tory policy encouraging BTL. Renters tend to vote for Labour. Nice own goal there, now watch as it spreads out to the rest of the country. Although experts disagree on when a crash could come, what might cause it, or how severe it would be, house prices are all but certain to go into reverse eventually. Previous drops have come with little warning and caused misery for millions of homeowners. Prices plummeted 20pc between 1989 and 1993, sparked by a surge in interest rates, and took years to recover. In the late 2000s, the financial crisis triggered a sharp 19pc fall. A drop on such a scale now would plunge legions of first-time buyers into negative equity, some by as much as £100,000. Eventually, the spark for another crisis will come. As mortgage rates rise, the cost of living bites and unemployment starts its slow upward march, the giddy heights reached by the market in the last decade may merely increase the size of the fall. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/08/borrowed-time-bad-will-housing-crash-finally-comes/
  2. I used to think that fighting 10% inflation will need 10% interest rates, but I no longer think that applies. There are so many people up to their eyeballs in huge quantities of cheap debt that just rising from 1% to 2% will get plenty of them into trouble. It is a bit like car payments, if the monthly cost of financing your next Audi doubles, it doesnt really matter what the percentages rate is, if you can't afford it, you can't afford it. Also the idea that the BOE is setting rates is a bit of a fantasy, the US sets rates and every other country has to follow pretty much in lockstep or else watch their currency get trashed. I think this is why Gordon Brown handed control over from the govt to the BOE, he realised it is all theatre which is something he doesnt have time for.
  3. https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1950_2022UKb_17c1li011lcn_G1t 2000 Billion in debt is only about £30K each person (or £217,000 per taxpayer)
  4. Nothing to do with the hostages, everything to do with alternative (non Russian) sources for oil. The EU banned oil imports from Iran, but we are not members any more.
  5. The UK government wants to reverse a controversial privatisation deal by seeking to wrest ownership of 38,000 homes in the Ministry of Defence housing portfolio from the billionaire private equity boss Guy Hands. In 1996, under the defence secretary Michael Portillo, the Conservative government sold 57,400 houses used by military service men and women and their families to Annington Homes for £1.7bn in a sale and leaseback deal. They were valued by Annington (pdf) at £7.6bn last year, while their vacant possession value is estimated at £10bn. The MoD is paying about £180m a year in rent plus £140m in repairs and upgrades. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/27/guy-hands-terra-firma-annington-homes-mod-ministry-defence So having sold at the very bottom of the market, are they now going to buy back at the very top?
  6. This explains why those figures are wrong https://theconversation.com/covid-19-why-infection-rates-among-double-vaccinated-older-adults-look-worse-than-they-are-167836
  7. Because the old are most likely to end up in hospital Because it can take weeks or months to die and that costs £££££££££££ How much extra tax are you prepared to pay so that some 70 year old can be nursed for 10 weeks because they decided to believe conspiracy theories on facebook rather than listening to the sensible advice any Dr would tell you.
  8. I do, the vaccination is not 100% and if I get infected I want to know about it so I dont pass it on to others. The vaccinated are most likely to have no symptoms (or very minor symptoms) so how would you find out without testing?
  9. Theres a number of possibilities 1) People who havent bothered to get vaccinated are probably not bothering to test themselves regularly either, so it looks like they have lower rates than the reality on the ground. 2) Some people who are vaccinated might be less careful about mask wearing and avoiding crowds. Probably others I haven't thought of yet, statistics are notoriously tricky to get right.
  10. The current lot are so hard right, they have kind of flipped over to meet the hard left - "everyone for themselves" > "whats yours is mine"
  11. Cocaine in the Houses of Parliament. How could that possibly happen?
  12. Wait a minute they are lumping all properties in together, new houses almost never have 1 or 2 bedrooms so you would expect the average price to be higher. A fairer comparison would be price per sq ft
  13. Maybe it's the high quality foundations? €725,000 https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-15-beechurst-killarney-road-bray-co-wicklow/2510637 4 Beds so good for a growing family then?
  14. The crazy thing is that 90% of the price is in the land, do new builds come on "better land" than existing houses?
  15. Craig Murray's blog has been an excellent source of detail on the legal battles between Sturgeon/Salmond This video is a good summary of the whole thing (starts at 6 minutes in) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8NjRSUkkWE https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/ The Salmond court case posts are currently deleted because Craig is now fighting a contempt of court action despite being very careful not to name any names or identifying information on his blog. This seems to me like a heavy handed attempt to cover up the truth and shows that the Scottish parliament have too much influence over the Scottish high court. Recent press coverage has been very biassed against Salmond. The fact that 13 charges took only 2 days before they were all thrown out is a good indication that none of them could be taken seriously - many other abuse court cases have dragged on for weeks, Harvey Weinstein's trial took a month. That hasn't stopped the Scottish and English press from treating Alex Salmond as though he had been found guilty.
  16. The 'once in a generation' thing How long is a generation? Social generations are cohorts of people born in the same date range and who share similar cultural experiences A generation is "all of the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively." It can also be described as, "the average period, generally considered to be about 3-6 years, during which children are born and grow up to develop." 2014 + 6 = 2020 so its overdue
  17. Total covid cases in the UK are about to top 4 million. 50% of those (2 million ish) happened in the last 4 weeks, how many are coming in the next month? When you run the numbers, someone who has had a vaccine today is at about the same risk as someone without the vaccine back in November.
  18. Deal with RICS agreed over weekend Homeowners in buildings without cladding will no longer need an EWS1 fire safety form to sell or re-mortgage their property, the government has said. https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/government-announces-ews1-exemption-for-buildings-without-cladding/5109154.article
  19. August 1973 - Summerland, Douglas, Isle of Man - 50 dead - Clad with Oroglas flammable acrylic April 1991 - Knowsley Heights, Huyton, Merseyside - No deaths - Reclad with flammable material June 1999 - Garnock Court, Irvine - 1 death - Reclad with flammable material July 2009 - Lakanhal House, Camberwell - 6 dead - Refurbished with flammable cladding So more than 40 years of evidence that flammable cladding on tall buildings is a bad idea. Grenfell Tower refurb architects were somehow unaware of fire safety advice for tall buildings, but were selected on basis of cost. Local building control rubber-stamped the design and specifications.
  20. Or a slight twist on that: 1. Announce the policy in advance, knowing there is no govt time to actually introduce it, but which still might have the effect of slowing or stopping the rush of people all trying to move out from London at once. 2. Sell own house in central London before it's too late.
  21. Organic eggs are currently 3.8% of the market. However Liquid egg for food processors accounts for 68% of the total production and almost none of that is organic. So if you are looking at whole eggs, then organic is around 10% although if you shop in Waitrose I'd estimate their sales as closer to 70% just based on the shelf space. https://www.soilassociation.org/organic-living/what-is-organic/organic-eggs/ "Free-range" eggs are a marketing con, if you don't want to buy organic, just own it and buy battery eggs - they are the same thing.
  22. Routine debeaking is forbidden in organic egg production, so you can have brown eggs from a non debeaked hen, you just can't mass produce them in small cages.
  23. The French govt should put those cartoons on giant posters on every street corner, then the extremist nutcases who can't handle a joke about Mohamed will have to get used to it.
  24. I wonder if you sell for a loss, can you then use that to claim tax relief and get a huge refund?
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