Theresa May | Statement at 11:15am

[BorrowToLeech]

The bad news is that there is no party for me to vote for, but the good news is that my vote won't count anyway. 

Go democracy!

[dances with sheeple]

UKIP will pick up a lot of votes IMO.

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

UKIP will pick up a lot of votes IMO.

No. I think they are dead.

[slawek]

3 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

UKIP will pick up a lot of votes IMO.

UKIP is dead, most of Cons gains since the last elections are from UKIP. Lab is not losing votes to UKIP but could lose some seats to Cons due to UKIP demise.

Mother Theresa hard stance on Brexit could be a cunning plan to destroy UKIP as they fight for the same voters. 

[Ah-so]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No. I think they are dead.

Agreed. About 20% down on last year's GE I reckon. Perhaps more. 

[Roman Roady]

4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No. I think they are dead.

Agree, their work is done here.

[dances with sheeple]

2 minutes ago, slawek said:

UKIP is dead, most of Cons gains since the last elections are from UKIP. Lab is not losing votes to UKIP but could lose some seats to Cons due to UKIP demise.

Mother Theresa hard stance on Brexit could be a cunning plan to destroy UKIP as they fight for the same voters. 

UKIP are insurance for the people who want a hard Brexit, what difference would voting Tory make to them?

[spyguy]

First post Thatcher election too.

Itll be a long time before blair and brown die.

[slawek]

1 minute ago, dances with sheeple said:

UKIP are insurance for the people who want a hard Brexit, what difference would voting Tory make to them?

I don't know, data shows that most UKIP voters have switched to Tories after they become a UKIP-lite.  It is possible that Tories after fending UKIP off will soften their stance on Brexit, they are risking alienating some of their core voters with the current policies. The early election has ruined Banks' plans to set up a new party, I am not sure this is a coincidence. 

 

[Dorkins]

9 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Two choices for labour:

Oppose this early election, stick with Corbyn, lose badly in 2020 and not have a shot at power again until 2025.

Support this election, get hammered and boot out Corbyn, regroup for a shot at 2022 election.

I think Labour MPs will support May's plans...

Labour MPs don't have the power to remove Corbyn, last year's failed coup showed that. The party membership who actually do have that power look like staying with Corbyn for years to come.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Dorkins

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Labour MPs don't have the power to remove Corbyn, last year's failed coup showed that. The party membership who actually do have that power look like staying with Corbyn for years to come.

Labour now rely on their leaders having enough self awareness to stand down.

Good luck with that.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

49 minutes ago, slawek said:

UKIP is dead

Starting a Post with a straight untrue does not bode well for what is to follow.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 hours ago, slawek said:

I've had a quick at the latest poll. Cons gains are mostly coming from UKIP, Labour losses are mostly undecided, LibDem and Greens. There is very little crossing between Cons/UKIP on one side and Lab/LibDem,/Greens on other.   The Cons biggest enemy is UKIP, Lab is Lab itself.

I am seeing large numbers of Conservative friends (of a pro-business remain persuasion) indicating they will vote Lib Dem.

I may well do so myself; I am keen to keep driving the remain cause and can't find any obvious reason to support the Conservatives who I have always backed in the past. I also loathe Theresa May, mainly because she is such a damned authoritarian.

 

BTW, as suggested by Farage today on LBC, the real reason for this badly timed (why not May 4th) election is that the Conservative Party was anxious about the stream of by-elections arising from the Election Expenses Scandal File being passed to the CPS - approximately 30 names in the frame for prosecution.  Basically this would wipe out the Conservative Majority.

In some ways this is a bit of a cover up.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

8 hours ago, casual_squash said:

Got to admit, sensible decision from Mays point of view. From where they stand on the polls, the only way will be down in the not too distant future. 

Overdue a recession, up coming European elections and Brexit may well bring on more instability and diplomatic tensions rising internationally.  

As said, this is a bit of a reset to cover up for the loss of seats that would have ensued due to the expense scandal. 

 

[doomed]

I would vote Corbyn just to stir the pot and hopefully hasten the UK's demise but where I live would vote Labour if Jimmy Saville was resurrected and put in charge so whats is the point.

[zugzwang]

47 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

As said, this is a bit of a reset to cover up for the loss of seats that would have ensued due to the expense scandal. 

 

That's very interesting and makes a lot of sense. The economy and the housing market have slowed dramatically but are still marginally +ve, one of the reasons I'd been expecting a GE next year not this (modest cough below). Never occurred to me that May could be challenged before then.

 

On 06/04/2017 at 4:25 PM, zugzwang said:

Not long now. I don't believe 3-5% hpi is sufficient to keep the UK out of recession for much longer, especially with consumer inflation running at 3+%. Carney can't print any more, sensibly, and lowering the Bank rate to 0.10% will only hurt the City. Another major u-turn on govt spending is unlikely at this stage of the parliament so I'm guessing the Tories will cut and run for an early General Election next year and let the housing market tank after that. Blaming the downturn on EU intransigence re. Brexit (obviously), Putin and China.

[Chrippie]

I'm ambivalent about May, but i think its a genius political move, and the best "event" for HPC'ers in a while.   2 biggest issues in politics imo at the moment are brexit and the fact that the economy isnt working for increasing numbers of people, part of which is a function of the housing crisis. This leads to instability and unpredictability as we've seen here and in the US;bad for sitting political leaders. As others have said this election will be won by the Tories whatever they come up with coz even the majority of labour voters dont trust Corbyn to run the country. But next election will be post Brexit, which means that the second issue and specifically the housing crisis will be THE major electoral issue in 2022. And in 5 years time if they continue stimulate HPI and house prices are up another 20-25% and home ownership is down another 6 or 7% to levels last seen in the thirties

 

 

 and Labour have a decent leader promising to change things then the Tories could lose.  That chart is the killer chart for the Tories as renters typically vote labour; they need to turn that trend around, cos if they dont they are creating a generation of non-Tory voters. Seems pretty logical therefore to have a post election HPC and be the party of recovery in 2020/2021. HPC is baked into the cake now imo. Trying to caution myself about whether I'm guilty of confirmation bias as a confirmed HPC'er, but it just makes too much sense to me. Post-election I think we'll see further tightening up of BTL rules/taxes, increased taxes/restrictions on foreigners owning uk property, and probably something on vacant/second homes too. Hold on to your hats. 

[Dorkins]

7 hours ago, GTFO said:

Seems doubtful she would have just decided this was the plan.

If she made the decision to do this a while ago, then we would have already had the pre-election sweetners. 

Why would she need pre-election sweeteners when she has a huge lead in the polls? Save the handouts for when you need them.

[Chrippie]

1 minute ago, Chrippie said:

I'm ambivalent about May, but i think its a genius political move, and the best "event" for HPC'ers in a while.   2 biggest issues in politics imo at the moment are brexit and the fact that the economy isnt working for increasing numbers of people, part of which is a function of the housing crisis. This leads to instability and unpredictability as we've seen here and in the US;bad for sitting political leaders. As others have said this election will be won by the Tories whatever they come up with coz even the majority of labour voters dont trust Corbyn to run the country. But next election will be post Brexit, which means that the second issue and specifically the housing crisis will be THE major electoral issue in 2022. And in 5 years time if they continue stimulate HPI and house prices are up another 20-25% and home ownership is down another 6 or 7% to levels last seen in the thirties

 

 

 

 and Labour have a decent leader promising to change things then the Tories could lose.  That chart is the killer chart for the Tories as renters typically vote labour; they need to turn that trend around, cos if they dont they are creating a generation of non-Tory voters. Seems pretty logical therefore to have a post election HPC and be the party of recovery in 2020/2021. HPC is baked into the cake now imo. Trying to caution myself about whether I'm guilty of confirmation bias as a confirmed HPC'er, but it just makes too much sense to me. Post-election I think we'll see further tightening up of BTL rules/taxes, increased taxes/restrictions on foreigners owning uk property, and probably something on vacant/second homes too. Hold on to your hats. 

This chart - hopefully it posts now. 

[Chrippie]

1 minute ago, Chrippie said:

 

This chart - hopefully it posts now. 

[Exiled Canadian]

What I don't understand is why 3 months ago our negotiating position on Brexit could not be told to Parliament as it would weaken the negotiating position and yet we are now able to have an election to give Mrs May a "mandate" for this same negotiating position which (one assumes) she proposes to lay out in a manifesto.

[Venger]

 

14 minutes ago, Chrippie said:

I'm ambivalent about May, but i think its a genius political move, and the best "event" for HPC'ers in a while.   2 biggest issues in politics imo at the moment are brexit and the fact that the economy isnt working for increasing numbers of people, part of which is a function of the housing crisis. This leads to instability and unpredictability as we've seen here and in the US;bad for sitting political leaders. As others have said this election will be won by the Tories whatever they come up with coz even the majority of labour voters dont trust Corbyn to run the country. But next election will be post Brexit, which means that the second issue and specifically the housing crisis will be THE major electoral issue in 2022. And in 5 years time if they continue stimulate HPI and house prices are up another 20-25% and home ownership is down another 6 or 7% to levels last seen in the thirties

 and Labour have a decent leader promising to change things then the Tories could lose.  That chart is the killer chart for the Tories as renters typically vote labour; they need to turn that trend around, cos if they dont they are creating a generation of non-Tory voters. Seems pretty logical therefore to have a post election HPC and be the party of recovery in 2020/2021. HPC is baked into the cake now imo. Trying to caution myself about whether I'm guilty of confirmation bias as a confirmed HPC'er, but it just makes too much sense to me. Post-election I think we'll see further tightening up of BTL rules/taxes, increased taxes/restrictions on foreigners owning uk property, and probably something on vacant/second homes too. Hold on to your hats. 

Agree with this and was part of my pushback to a view Conservatives can simply big-smile in on HPI++++ policies.

They have to tread a careful path.

And agree about your points about the increase in instability and unpredictability. 

I have no doubt Conservatives are strongly positioned in General Election, but I would not be surprised to see some heads taken, score settled, knifing and having to be cautious with positioning.

Quote

 

There is prejudice against any theory that highlights the interconnectedness of life in a nonmagical way. Many minds balk at any long chain of reasoning, whatever the character of conclusions it supports. This prejudice is all the more emphatic when logic suggests that certain political or social developments are broadly deterministic, or that each stage of human history does not afford the same possibilities. In part, this disregard for causes and consequences is a form of intellectual evasion. What is truly random cannot be predicted or explained. By pretending everything is random, we paradoxically allow ourselves to shirk responsibility for those circumstances where our own actions could have an effect in altering outcomes for the better. To those who do not wish to understand, all news is a surprise.

[..]There is a widespread assumption that economic progress since World War II has become permanent. ..... unargued conviction that another crash is no more likely than an invasion from Mars. ... the illusion is a general overestimation of the powers of governments. ...

[...]Taking a longer view, the crucial mistake that runs through contemporary perceptions of reality is the deep reluctance to face the all-embracing action and reaction of nature. Life is not static. It is turbulent to its very essence. Human societies, like all complex systems, are constantly fluctuating. This fundamental ebb and flow is the source of cycles in human affairs, including economic cycles. As Emerson says, there is a "deep remedial force that underlies all facts." At every point where something goes up, nature is constantly compensating by finding a way to bring it down. "Superinduce magnetism at one end of a needle; the opposite magnetism takes place at the other end. If the south attracts, the north repels. To empty here, you must condense there." Nature keeps its accounts in balance.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

What I don't understand is why 3 months ago our negotiating position on Brexit could not be told to Parliament as it would weaken the negotiating position and yet we are now able to have an election to give Mrs May a "mandate" for this same negotiating position which (one assumes) she proposes to lay out in a manifesto.

Exactly.  Intriguing.  

It's a matter of profound political importance.   There are strong disagreements in the mix.

It's very very reachy, but as she was previously a Remainer (into Referendum) I would not be surprised if she was prepared to scupper Brexit from the inside, and even sacrifice her own political career.   Nothing points to that at the moment, but politics is full of lies and clever positioning.  There will be political battling going on and perhaps even within each party.
 

Quote

 

But the moves could become a language, and Gurgeh thought he could speak that language now, well
enough (tellingly) to lie in it… so he made his moves, and at one moment, with one move, seemed to be
suggesting that he had given up… then with his next move he appeared to indicate he was determined to
take one of several players down with him… or two of them… or a different one… the lies went
on. There was no single message, but rather a succession of contradictory signals, pulling the syntax of
the game to and fro and to and fro until the common understanding the other players had reached began
to fatigue and tear and split.

-Player of Games

 

Quote

'There is an Excession without precedent at Esperi which may lead to an infinitude of universes and a level of power orders of magnitude beyond what any known Involved currently possesses. You've experienced the way Special Circumstances works, Genar-Hofoen; don't be so naive as to imagine that Minds don't employ strong-arm methods now and again, or that in a matter resounding with such importance any ship would think twice about sacrificing another consciousness for such a prize. My information is that several Minds have been forfeited already; if, in the exceptional conditions prevailing, intellects on that scale are considered fair game, think about how little a single human life is likely to matter.

-Excession

 

[zugzwang]

59 minutes ago, doomed said:

I would vote Corbyn just to stir the pot and hopefully hasten the UK's demise but where I live would vote Labour if Jimmy Saville was resurrected and put in charge so whats is the point.

Corbyn has the right ideas but he needs to be ruthlessly demotic in articulating them i.e. by making a progressive case for Brexit not hedging querulously over the result.

A deeply sectarian, class-based election campaign is what's required, one which fixes the City of London, the Bank of England and Brussels clearly in its sights and tilts aggressively against longstanding Tory intellectual shibboleths such as the free market and uncontrolled immigration. And just where have the trillion pounds of debt that Osborne ran up under the guise of 'austerity' been spent, given the desperate state of the housing market and our public services?

[Bear Hug]

6 minutes ago, satch said:

Still do not understand why Labour, the SNP et al do not get together tomorrow and prevent the two thirds needed to call an election. It would make May look like an idiot and then say they could say that they will vote for a snap election after a 'no confidence' vote in May and her government.

Labour have nothing to gain from this snap election bar getting rid of Corbyn and then getting themselves ready for the next election in five years time while May does whatever she wants with a massive parliamentary majority .... from May's point of view the Lords could become more vitriolic as they will be the only opposition.

That's because half of Labour will just do the opposite of another half.  I am not expecting Labour to do well in the election but I hope for a shift further left.  It's been almost 2 years of predictions of Corbyn's demise and placing blame for Labour's weakness on him, but I still see their main problem is toxic "moderate" Blair's legacy.  

[pmgdawau]

hello, hello, hello

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-election-fraud-prosecutions-cps-election-campaign-result-overturn-battle-bus-a7689801.html