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Chrippie

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  1. This is gonna be fun. Now > 50% reduced: https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4070032468 Sweepstake on where this ends up? I bag £150k and it'll be expensive at that price.
  2. This looks to me like the real deal, not a broom cupboard, an actual flat you might want to live in. First listed 4 years ago at what looks like 1.85 or 1.9m, now asking 950k. Whoever owns this has weathered a 50% drop. Let’s hope they had plenty of equity. People outside of central London have no idea how bad the carnage is here at this point. https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=3927119242
  3. First actual 50% reduction in asking price I've seen. Obvs £600k was utterly ridiculous for a broom cupboard even if it is near Harrods. Even £300k is way overpriced. But still. 50% off the asking price. https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4070032468
  4. Chrippie

    Examples of big & multiple drops

    Nearly 40% down on original asking. Last sold £3.3m, now asking £1.1. Maybe something wrong with it though it doesnt say short lease which they normally do in my experience. Really think central london is taking another steep leg down at the moment: https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4085567220
  5. Chrippie

    Examples of big & multiple drops

    There is so much of this imo: small scale developers who have bought up houses/churches/blocks of flats intending to do them up and flip them. I personally know 4 people who have taken winnings from a career in the city and taken on leverage to do this and now in difficulty as can't sell/don't have the balance sheet to ride it out. One example of what happens when the banks lose patience: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5405583/Price-nearly-halves-one-UKs-expensive-homes.html
  6. Chrippie

    Forced Sellers Starting to Appear

    Just received this email about a house in SW London: *Motivated Seller* - *Open to Offers* - A detached five bedroom house with garage close to Richmond Park - *No Onward Chain* If you have received this e-mail and the asking price of the attached property is above your budget, it will still be worth you viewing this house. The seller is seriously considering offers and is motivated to sell. Its happening folks, peeps starting to wake up to what is happening out there.
  7. Exactly and you'd be better able to finance it as: 1. you'd be able to have a lower purchase deposit (as soon as you exchange contracts he no longer needs to keep the tenancy deposit, so it could be part of the purchase deposit) plus obviously the house is selling for less. 2. There'd be no moving costs 3. You'd be buying a house £75k below "market value", therefore immediately increasing your equity by that amount. You'd therefore be a much lower risk to banks than if you were buying a £325k house worth £325k. Mortgage valuation when it happens would presumably reflect the non-CGT price, as post the transaction that's what it would be worth. I think this is genius. I'm in a similar situation to the above (in a house the landlord has owned for decades so probably with a huge CGT liability), and I suspect lots of others are too. I know he's up for selling as it was on the market when we rented it. If we can find a way to split the CGT then both he and I win and the govt gets another family into OO status. That's what we all want right? If they follow through I think around the margins it could lead to a substantial reduction in the number of btls/increase in OO which would be a great thing, with around the edges some overall pressure on house prices.
  8. Chrippie

    Examples of big & multiple drops

    Here's smack in the middle of Notting Hill at £1100/sq ft asking price. Would have been £15-1600 a couple of years ago, which is what they started off asking... https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4172692906
  9. Thought i might resurrect this thread, see if anyone's views have changed. I'm probably a little more bearish on the overall declines that are likely in London than I was given that you are already looking at c. 40% falls marked to market in some areas from peak and some of the biggest negative catalysts still haven't really kicked in (eg IR rises). My guess is we will see 50-60%+ declines in terraced property in PCL, with luxury flats doing worse than that (maybe down 70-90%). I do think it'll take longer to fully play out too though. My guess is we are still 2-3 years from a bottom. Couple of things that i didn't foresee a year ago. Unexplained Wealth Orders, and the fear that foreigners may have that laundered cash in the UK is not as safe as they thought. The election result last year and the extent to which it would catalyse a change in the zeitgeist against HPI forever. The politics on ownership of property have changed and we are likely to see materially higher taxes and less support for prices going forward imo. Tories need to and Labour want to. What's also clear now is that sentiment has changed among my friends/acquaintances who own property in/around London; its gone from you must be mad to STR a year ago to oh shit its falling. Most still think this is a blip with a likely recovery soon. ie they've gone from "New Paradigm" on the chart below to "Denial". Which if this crash follows classic bubble psychology suggests we are still right at the beginning:
  10. Momentum seems to be building on this http://www.private-eye.co.uk/issue-1465/in-the-back
  11. Agree - the introduction of UWOs are highly significant - you only need to have one or two cases to significantly impact corrupt people's willingness to put money into London property, and to sell what they already have . And if the foreign funny money goes its tickets. Property is illiquid and price discovery happens at the margin. The marginal buyer of PCL has been a foreigner and (I'm guessing) with a high probability that at least some of their wealth would be hard to justify. When we sold our house in Notting Hill one of the people who came closest to buying it was from Ukraine. When i asked what he did i was told seriously (by the estate agent) "he's in pharmaceuticals - don't ask". Its been open that the money coming in was suspect. Agents have been running a don't ask don't tell policy - that's over.
  12. This is awesome! Its actually starting. Take the corrupt money out of pcl and you're back to Brits buying houses based on their income. Even bankers cant afford prices as they are today, even with current interest rates. Implies prices more or less halving for family houses and more for "luxury" flats. UWOs are such a powerful catalyst imo as it converts price insensitive buyers just looking to launder cash into forced sellers.
  13. But if that's the case we should be pushing against it. This is an open goal for us. We are a group of people who believe this country would be a better, fairer, happier place post- HPC. Most other catalysts to achieve that aim have potentially negative effects that can be used to argue against them: Interest rates should go up - but hang on we're protecting the economy? Property taxes should go up - but what about all the old grannies who are asset rich but cash poor? We should build more homes - but what about protecting the green belt etc? But no politician is going to publicly defend tax-evading landlords. We should be pushing hard on this to force the inertia to change. It would be popular across the country, and bring about what we want.
  14. Following up - the key to how important this could be is if it truly is half of all landlords across the country not declaring. If so, and if they are forced into declaring it makes HPC almost inevitable imo, given the likely scale of fines and back taxes, and the fact that house prices are set at the margin. We should be doing everything we can to force HMRC to act. This article would seem to back up the idea that it is half: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/13/half-of-landlords-in-one-london-borough-fail-to-declare-rental-income If this is the case then it is a national scandal that this has been going on without apparently a serious attempt to crack down on it so far. BTL mortgages came into being over 20 years ago ffs. HMRC will have been aware of the discrepancy between the numbers declaring and the number of mortgages for decades. Tax evading landlords need to be prosecuted and if the evaded tax is sufficiently high, jailed for what they have done. I would join/financially contribute to a pressure group attempting to force the government/HMRC to act and without favour on these people.
  15. Actually thinking some more about this it is tax evasion not avoidance. HMRC should be starting on the basis of 100% penalties. Thinking of 10% not having the money to pay all the tax due over several years plus 100% penalties might be very conservative.
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