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TheCountOfNowhere

What will the London collapse now do...

What will the London collapse in prices now do ?  

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  1. 1. What will the London collapse in prices now do...

    • Accelerate
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    • Slow down
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    • Flat line
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    • Reverse
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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Carry on down.

If bits of PCL are 15% down ( and the rest ) and sales have collapsed, you have to wonder how far and how fast the prices could go down.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Who knows... With plenty of lending still available out there and lots of hungry lemmings, I remain hopeful for a correction but braced for disappointment.

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16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If bits of PCL are 15% down ( and the rest ) and sales have collapsed, you have to wonder how far and how fast the prices could go down.

Collapse by 80% is unlikely.
Rather theyll carry on falling at reasonable chunks til they are aligned more to wages.

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The Term Funding Scheme, £60bn more QE, the lower Pound tempting Chinese investors and more could all be big spoilers here. Always scope for another govt prop to arrive. Presumably HTB London is still running?

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47 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Who knows... With plenty of lending still available out there and lots of hungry lemmings, I remain hopeful for a correction but braced for disappointment.

Odd that the sales volumes are dropping though, despite this.

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43 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

The Term Funding Scheme, £60bn more QE, the lower Pound tempting Chinese investors and more could all be big spoilers here. Always scope for another govt prop to arrive. Presumably HTB London is still running?

The lower pound...destroying Chinese investors profit....

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9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

So 70% then. :lol:

Its hard to say.

Dynamics change when stuff is over stretched or over inflated.

 

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26 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Its hard to say.

Dynamics change when stuff is over stretched or over inflated.

 

The more things change, the more they stay the same....

South-Sea-Company.png

 

gouda-tulip-bulbs.gif

 

1104-Hong-Kong-Long-Term-Residential-Pro

 

railroadstocks.jpg

 

japanese-home-prices.png

 

It's not really different this time at all, is it.

 

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I hope for a massive nationwide crash over the next year and it's clear that the "forever HPI" trend / media attitude is definitely turning... however as we've seen in the past trends take time to play out, and realistically I'm thinking the capital (along with other massively inflated areas - i.e. Oxford and Cambridge) will probably see a gradual decline for the foreseeable while the areas that have seen less rampant inflation will see reduced growth, stagnation and ultimately a less severe decline.

Based purely on my gut feeling and a universal lack of deep understanding of the factors at play, I think London will see circa 0.5% fall per month on average for the next 3-5yrs, max 20-25% fall from peak before tptb begin shameless courting HPI again through some new (or recycled) unsustainable source of revenue - by once again falsely incentivising borrowing through deregulation of BTL, more HTB rubbish, courting foreign investment, dropping interest rates further, more QE.. basically all the same rubbish they've used thus far to thoroughly ruin our housing market in the name of "saving the economy".

There are an increasing number of complex factors driving the house price deflation - what ultimately concerns me is that "they" still have a fair amount of control over the situation and could still pull out the stops to maintain HPI (killing / reversing BTL legislation, for example).
 

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29 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The more things change, the more they stay the same....

South-Sea-Company.png

 

gouda-tulip-bulbs.gif

 

1104-Hong-Kong-Long-Term-Residential-Pro

 

railroadstocks.jpg

 

japanese-home-prices.png

 

It's not really different this time at all, is it.

 

How many of these bubbles had the full weight of the state behind them...?  I expect there will be a correction but it will come in parallel with a wider serious economic slump .

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

The Term Funding Scheme, £60bn more QE, the lower Pound tempting Chinese investors and more could all be big spoilers here. Always scope for another govt prop to arrive. Presumably HTB London is still running?

Here we go again - total rubbish often  spouted by EAs.  Foreigners (Chinese) including EU citizens after Brexit CANNOT live in  the UK. Buying does not give them residency. They can ONLY buy as an investment. Rental income is in £ so yields stay the same. Why would they buy if both prices and £ are likely to continue downwards.

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13 minutes ago, Wayward said:

How many of these bubbles had the full weight of the state behind them...?  I expect there will be a correction but it will come in parallel with a wider serious economic slump .

All of them.

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It is imperative for the government that there is no crash during brexit > 2 years.

If there was the remain propaganda would just go into overdrive.  Its just pressure thats not needed as the real damage would come from changes of direction/splits.  

My guess is that the government will keep changes that increase volumes on the market tax changes + keep the credit taps fully turned on and the £ suppressed and inflation up.

The kind of thing you would do if you wanted a managed fall without a crash (if that is ever possible).  Move property from weak hands (io/BTL/accidental landlords) to FTB etc souped up with long term fixes.  I am surprised they have not got a subsidised 20 year fix the kind of loan you can get in other countries.

15-25% off but more than this factoring inflation.  They can spin this as increased supply due to their prudent management.  At the end of the day London is a bubble but the nine elms is a bubble + oversupply just forget the former and spot on about the latter.

We have Carney until 2019 and there will be another external crisis which will allow him to not raise rates until then (possibly a token one or two is things going well)

The Key brexit supporters have a number of anti carney folks who will remember if they get voted in again so after next election crash proper

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

It is imperative for the government that there is no crash during brexit > 2 years.

If there was the remain propaganda would just go into overdrive.  Its just pressure thats not needed as the real damage would come from changes of direction/splits.  

My guess is that the government will keep changes that increase volumes on the market tax changes + keep the credit taps fully turned on and the £ suppressed and inflation up.

The kind of thing you would do if you wanted a managed fall without a crash (if that is ever possible).  Move property from weak hands (io/BTL/accidental landlords) to FTB etc souped up with long term fixes.  I am surprised they have not got a subsidised 20 year fix the kind of loan you can get in other countries.

15-25% off but more than this factoring inflation.  They can spin this as increased supply due to their prudent management.  At the end of the day London is a bubble but the nine elms is a bubble + oversupply just forget the former and spot on about the latter.

We have Carney until 2019 and there will be another external crisis which will allow him to not raise rates until then (possibly a token one or two is things going well)

The Key brexit supporters have a number of anti carney folks who will remember if they get voted in again so after next election crash proper

 

Yes....PCL is down aronud 15% and the press is full of collapse storys.

 

If the government could predict or prevent a collapse 2007 would never have happen.

 

Id say they were more likely to collapse everything then use it as an excuse to do what the **** they like.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If bits of PCL are 15% down ( and the rest ) and sales have collapsed, you have to wonder how far and how fast the prices could go down.

Next RM sales data for Nov will be early in March.If transactions haven't picked up then 2017 is going to be a tough year for Foxtons

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I think we are just seeing a holding pattern. Prices are down for PCL and transactions are massively down, but those who hold PCL are not in any great hurry to sell. I know a couple of people who own property in Nottinghill and Shoreditch, while not prime central still decent locations, who would like to sell but there is no pressure on them to do so, so they just wait it out. In their opinion the market will get going again. I think that is the general feeling. 

 

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5 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

I hope for a massive nationwide crash over the next year and it's clear that the "forever HPI" trend / media attitude is definitely turning... however as we've seen in the past trends take time to play out, and realistically I'm thinking the capital (along with other massively inflated areas - i.e. Oxford and Cambridge) will probably see a gradual decline for the foreseeable while the areas that have seen less rampant inflation will see reduced growth, stagnation and ultimately a less severe decline.

Based purely on my gut feeling and a universal lack of deep understanding of the factors at play, I think London will see circa 0.5% fall per month on average for the next 3-5yrs, max 20-25% fall from peak before tptb begin shameless courting HPI again through some new (or recycled) unsustainable source of revenue - by once again falsely incentivising borrowing through deregulation of BTL, more HTB rubbish, courting foreign investment, dropping interest rates further, more QE.. basically all the same rubbish they've used thus far to thoroughly ruin our housing market in the name of "saving the economy".

There are an increasing number of complex factors driving the house price deflation - what ultimately concerns me is that "they" still have a fair amount of control over the situation and could still pull out the stops to maintain HPI (killing / reversing BTL legislation, for example).
 

If the US raises rates, and they seem hell bent on it, it is game over, if some (even one) EZ countries return to their old currency it is game over because rates will be forced up.

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4 minutes ago, Pieman Pieface said:

I think we are just seeing a holding pattern. Prices are down for PCL and transactions are massively down, but those who hold PCL are not in any great hurry to sell. I know a couple of people who own property in Nottinghill and Shoreditch, while not prime central still decent locations, who would like to sell but there is no pressure on them to do so, so they just wait it out. In their opinion the market will get going again. I think that is the general feeling. 

 

The market won`t be moved by people like them though, they will just be reacting to the "market".

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And there was me thinking that we'd see grotty 1-bed flats in zone 6 pass the £300,000 mark this year. We're not far off. 

Too many false dawns and too soon to know what will happen.

There are still stories like 'Here's why buying a London property is probably one of the best investments you can ever make' being published http://uk.businessinsider.com/barclays-chart-london-property-prices-2017-2 However, that gives the average property price in London as £484,000 which sounds far too low.

As said above, I think May and Co will do everything they can to stave off any major drops with Brexit looming. 

 

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