Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[steve99]

11 hours ago, yelims said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/doctors-johnson-covid-freedom-day-b1883522.html
 

Hundreds of doctors and scientists attack Boris Johnson over ‘criminal’ plan for ‘Freedom Day’

‘I cannot understand why the government would opt to do herd immunity viral infection when they could do herd immunity by vaccination. I think it’s criminal.’

The reasoning is insane. Boris and chums say that if we have a 3rd wave in summer it wont be as bad as autumn/winter. What a twit when by mid autumn most will have been vaccinated.  A complete lack of logical reasoning which will lead to the Uk becoming a pariah state of plague to the rest of the world.  It wont be just Wetherspoons suffering when we get to into that state of disease and madness.  I would have gone for a 100% lockdown as soon as the Boris variant was climing up the exponential curve.  3 or 4 weeks would have put a lid on it in time for 'freedom day' and vaccination completion.

[rollover]

3 hours ago, spyguy said:

No.

Get those I felt tons in whilst its summer.

Its hospitalisations we need to avoid. Theres v few covid deaths in the UK.

give it a month or so

[rollover]

3 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Why would Macron tell the french they would be required to vaccinate? Totally predictable response, its not like the French trust their state and Vaccination.

It can only be because the alternative was worse! The thought that France might end up with more deaths than eg Brexit Britain for example? He is also talking about reform of the French pension system! he must have given up on the election and be going for a role in the commission by doing their dirty work.

What's the  fundamental assumption points for your expression of view?

[rollover]

7 hours ago, coypondboy said:

Home Office estimate doubled after the final tally as the 3 million becomes 6 miilion what would this number have been in 5 yrs time with no brexit and FOM?

You are a  gem ... just for you once again ...

 

Why 6m settlement applications doesn’t mean 6m EU citizens live in the UK

The Home Office announced it had received 6m applications for the EU settlement scheme, prompting some to conclude the number of non-British Europeans living in the UK was almost double previous estimates. Some on social media claimed that it meant 9% of the UK’s population.

But number crunchers at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the University of Oxford Migration Observatory have said the exceptionally high number of applications is not a measure of population, and could include millions not living in the country at the moment.

The ONS says its “best estimate” is still that there are 3.5 million EU and EEA citizens living in the UK, closer to the original number that gave the EU citizens’ campaign group the3million, its name in 2016.

Guardian

[thecrashingisles]

9 hours ago, yelims said:

Hey at least they can protest /s

Yes just look at them being unhindered by the police.

 

[debtlessmanc]

4 hours ago, rollover said:

What's the  fundamental assumption points for your expression of view?

That France has consistently broken the spending rules of the euro zone and that sooner or later this has to,stop, that the departure of the U.K. makes this more imperative. that this will be unpopular with the French people. 

[debtlessmanc]

4 hours ago, rollover said:

You are a  gem ... just for you once again ...

 

Why 6m settlement applications doesn’t mean 6m EU citizens live in the UK

The Home Office announced it had received 6m applications for the EU settlement scheme, prompting some to conclude the number of non-British Europeans living in the UK was almost double previous estimates. Some on social media claimed that it meant 9% of the UK’s population.

But number crunchers at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the University of Oxford Migration Observatory have said the exceptionally high number of applications is not a measure of population, and could include millions not living in the country at the moment.

The ONS says its “best estimate” is still that there are 3.5 million EU and EEA citizens living in the UK, closer to the original number that gave the EU citizens’ campaign group the3million, its name in 2016.

Guardian

What it actually:means is that the UKs govt (in this case the civil services of the ONS) cannot organise a proverbial p*** up In a brewery. Never mind provide services for the right population. One wonders how this situation developed?

[spyguy]

5 hours ago, rollover said:

You are a  gem ... just for you once again ...

 

Why 6m settlement applications doesn’t mean 6m EU citizens live in the UK

The Home Office announced it had received 6m applications for the EU settlement scheme, prompting some to conclude the number of non-British Europeans living in the UK was almost double previous estimates. Some on social media claimed that it meant 9% of the UK’s population.

But number crunchers at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the University of Oxford Migration Observatory have said the exceptionally high number of applications is not a measure of population, and could include millions not living in the country at the moment.

The ONS says its “best estimate” is still that there are 3.5 million EU and EEA citizens living in the UK, closer to the original number that gave the EU citizens’ campaign group the3million, its name in 2016.

Guardian

Straws. Grasping.

It also assumes that all EUers have applied. They havent.

Theres 7m-8m EUers in the UK.

80%+ require some form of tax payer prop, either inwork subs or free at point of use publuic services the cost of which far exceed the tax they pay.

 

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Straws. Grasping.

It also assumes that all EUers have applied. They havent.

Theres 7m-8m EUers in the UK.

80%+ require some form of tax payer prop, either inwork subs or free at point of use publuic services the cost of which far exceed the tax they pay.

 

Funny, I seem to remember a study that showed immigrant contributing more tax per head than the average brit. Granted they are on average younger but that is still the case.

[rollover]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Straws. Grasping.

It also assumes that all EUers have applied. They havent.

Theres 7m-8m EUers in the UK.

80%+ require some form of tax payer prop, either inwork subs or free at point of use publuic services the cost of which far exceed the tax they pay.

 

Straw man fallacy from your side.

Do you have a reliable source to back up your "7m-8m EUers in the UK" assertion?

[yelims]

Vote Leave’sTearing Up of the RulesComes Back to Bite its Leaders

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/07/13/vote-leave-campaign-of-demonisation-and-destruction-comes-back-to-bite/

“For hundreds of years, the establishment was careful to keep conventions within acceptable limits while its elite members used them to maintain and strengthen their position,” wrote Stephen Colegrave in these pages last week – predicting that the demolition of convention by Boris Johnson’s Government will tear down the façade that protects Britain’s elite class.

It is a sentiment that has morphed into reality over the past 24 hours.

Several England football players have suffered racist abuse following the team’s knife-edge loss against Italy on penalties in the Euro 2020 final. The Home Secretary said that she was “disgusted” at the venom directed at the players, a statement that England centre-back Tyrone Mings pointed out was full of hypocrisy. The Aston Villa player accused Priti Patel of “stoking the fire” at the beginning of the Euros by saying that it was acceptable for fans to boo players for taking the knee.

The intervention from Mings has been celebrated as an act of unprecedented bravery from an elite footballer. The long-established protocol is for sportsmen and women to remain out of politics. Like teachers or vicars, there is an underlying expectation that their political views – no matter how strongly felt – will remain private.

But since 2016, the norms of political debate have been obliterated. The Vote Leave message during the EU Referendum campaign was premised on emotive hyperbole, consciously anti-deferential and distantly attached to the facts. The unwritten rule that politics should be guided by basic moral values and standards of truth – and that public experts should be respected – was forgotten.

This has been carried into Downing Street by Brexit’s chief protagonist, Boris Johnson, who has inverted the Nolan principles of public life, which guided office holders towards higher standards of honesty and integrity.

[spyguy]

13 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Funny, I seem to remember a study that showed immigrant contributing more tax per head than the average brit. Granted they are on average younger but that is still the case.

They dont.

The surveys just looked at JSA and idnt look at direct (schooling, NHS) and indirect cost (inflating housign etc).

Its simple to work out how much money a single person or family with 2 kids need to earn before they become a net tax payers - ~38k/single, 60k for 2 kids + non working spouse.

 

[spyguy]

14 minutes ago, rollover said:

Straw man fallacy from your side.

Do you have a reliable source to back up your "7m-8m EUers in the UK" assertion?

Do you have a reliable source for '3m EUers in the UK'?

6m have applied for settlement. Most of the EEers in Mrs spys - and her friends schools - have not applied to remain.

Give it a few months, and wait for the flood of 'We missed the application date ....'

[rollover]

11 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Do you have a reliable source for '3m EUers in the UK'?

6m have applied for settlement. Most of the EEers in Mrs spys - and her friends schools - have not applied to remain.

Give it a few months, and wait for the flood of 'We missed the application date ....'

Your Deflection attempt is to draw attention away from yourself and put that attention onto your straw man.

Backup your statement "7m-8m EUers in the UK"  or admit it's just your fabulation.

Please, no detracting with another paper tiger?

[debtlessmanc]

21 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Do you have a reliable source for '3m EUers in the UK'?

6m have applied for settlement. Most of the EEers in Mrs spys - and her friends schools - have not applied to remain.

Give it a few months, and wait for the flood of 'We missed the application date ....'

As a matter of interest, why have they not applied? Simply not engaged with the society they live in?

[slawek]

24 minutes ago, spyguy said:

They dont.

The surveys just looked at JSA and idnt look at direct (schooling, NHS) and indirect cost (inflating housign etc).

Its simple to work out how much money a single person or family with 2 kids need to earn before they become a net tax payers - ~38k/single, 60k for 2 kids + non working spouse.

 

As usually you are making the stuff up.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

• The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

[andrewwk]

4 minutes ago, slawek said:

As usually you are making the stuff up.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

• The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

At a glance, can this be true - isn't it actually worse? If migrants have an overall +ve contribution and the budget is balanced, surely UK citizens must, on average, have a negative contribution? unless there is some mystery third category...

[slawek]

24 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Do you have a reliable source for '3m EUers in the UK'?

6m have applied for settlement. Most of the EEers in Mrs spys - and her friends schools - have not applied to remain.

Give it a few months, and wait for the flood of 'We missed the application date ....'

3m was the ONS estimation from 2015, the current estimation is 3.7m. You need to be precise what you mean by EUs, born in the EU or EU citizens, whether you are counting all visitors or just residents, how you define residence etc.

Your anecdote is just an anecdote, no statistical significance. I know some EUs who got the settled status and left the UK. 

It is most likely a lie, those people would risk being extradited since the deadline has passed. 

[yelims]

12 minutes ago, rollover said:

Your Deflection attempt is to draw attention away from yourself and put that attention onto your straw man.

Backup your statement "7m-8m EUers in the UK"  or admit it's just your fabulation.

Please, no detracting with another paper tiger?

I wonder how man of those EUnians were on tv screens few days ago during finals beating the shit out of each other and others

[slawek]

6 minutes ago, andrewwk said:

At a glance, can this be true - isn't it actually worse? If migrants have an overall +ve contribution and the budget is balanced, surely UK citizens must, on average, have a negative contribution? unless there is some mystery third category...

What about the existing debt?

The don't really calculate UK residence contribution, just assume that the budget is balanced in the long term and the migrant contribution is really negligible relatively to the size of the budget, 27bln over their lifetime.  

"The discounted contribution of the average UK resident over the rest of their lives should be approximately zero, assuming the budget is roughly balanced in the long-term."

Edited July 15, 2021 by slawek

[spyguy]

21 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

As a matter of interest, why have they not applied? Simply not engaged with the society they live in?

Well ... going by the time they are away - bugger of 1-2 week before holidays , come back 1-2 weeks after term starts (cheap flights)  never open the reading folder, etc etc.

Basically just here for the money.

A combination of scamming, worried theyll be kicked out, cant read n write etc.

 

 

[spyguy]

21 minutes ago, slawek said:

As usually you are making the stuff up.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

• The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

Thats counting a lot of chickens before they hatch.

80% of EUers are dependent on inwork benefits and free public evices.

Its very simple to get a system in place.

Remove all access to all bennies bar JSA - which is the Uks only contribution based benefits.

Charge up front  for NHs (6k/family) and education (7k/kid).

Then let the EUer claim the tax back after a year.

 

 

 

[slawek]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Thats counting a lot of chickens before they hatch.

80% of EUers are dependent on inwork benefits and free public evices.

Its very simple to get a system in place.

Remove all access to all bennies bar JSA - which is the Uks only contribution based benefits.

Charge up front  for NHs (6k/family) and education (7k/kid).

Then let the EUer claim the tax back after a year.

 

Again making some data up. 

[debtlessmanc]

21 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Thats counting a lot of chickens before they hatch.

80% of EUers are dependent on inwork benefits and free public evices.

Its very simple to get a system in place.

Remove all access to all bennies bar JSA - which is the Uks only contribution based benefits.

Charge up front  for NHs (6k/family) and education (7k/kid).

Then let the EUer claim the tax back after a year.

 

 

 

They will be amongst the 120k claiming benefits who have not applied then?

[pig]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

Vote Leave’sTearing Up of the RulesComes Back to Bite its Leaders

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/07/13/vote-leave-campaign-of-demonisation-and-destruction-comes-back-to-bite/

“For hundreds of years, the establishment was careful to keep conventions within acceptable limits while its elite members used them to maintain and strengthen their position,” wrote Stephen Colegrave in these pages last week – predicting that the demolition of convention by Boris Johnson’s Government will tear down the façade that protects Britain’s elite class.

It is a sentiment that has morphed into reality over the past 24 hours.

Several England football players have suffered racist abuse following the team’s knife-edge loss against Italy on penalties in the Euro 2020 final. The Home Secretary said that she was “disgusted” at the venom directed at the players, a statement that England centre-back Tyrone Mings pointed out was full of hypocrisy. The Aston Villa player accused Priti Patel of “stoking the fire” at the beginning of the Euros by saying that it was acceptable for fans to boo players for taking the knee.

The intervention from Mings has been celebrated as an act of unprecedented bravery from an elite footballer. The long-established protocol is for sportsmen and women to remain out of politics. Like teachers or vicars, there is an underlying expectation that their political views – no matter how strongly felt – will remain private.

But since 2016, the norms of political debate have been obliterated. The Vote Leave message during the EU Referendum campaign was premised on emotive hyperbole, consciously anti-deferential and distantly attached to the facts. The unwritten rule that politics should be guided by basic moral values and standards of truth – and that public experts should be respected – was forgotten.

This has been carried into Downing Street by Brexit’s chief protagonist, Boris Johnson, who has inverted the Nolan principles of public life, which guided office holders towards higher standards of honesty and integrity.

That’s an interesting idea - they got carried away and went for a target they thought wouldn’t bite back.

Patel’s intervention was gratuitous. She should have simply asked for the country to get behind the team. Ditto BJ.