Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[crouch]

32 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Similar calculations were made by just about every major forecaster and they all came to the conclusion that by mid 2018 we had lost getting on for 3% of GDP.  Apart from arguing over percentage points there is no real debate about it. 

The GDP cost of Brexit is pretty closely tracking the pre Brexit "project fear" forecasts and in the end you  you either believe it is worth the cost or don't.  

  

Putting it another way you're saying we could have had something we've never had. Ever heard the saying: "you'll never miss what you've never had"?

What this means is that Brexit will always be painless because we'll never miss what we've never had or stand no chance of getting. ?

Edited July 19, 2020 by crouch

[pig]

So It’s all kicking off again: now Arron Banks Is trying to block the Russia report and Brexiteers claiming the report is an attempt to block Brexit.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1311422/MPs-warn-Russia-report-Brexit-news-referendum

 

 

[NobodyInParticular]

39 minutes ago, pig said:

So It’s all kicking off again: now Arron Banks Is trying to block the Russia report and Brexiteers claiming the report is an attempt to block Brexit.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1311422/MPs-warn-Russia-report-Brexit-news-referendum

And Boris is 'calling the EU's bluff'. That only works if the EU is bluffing, which is unlikely. If you hold all the cards in a poker game, you don't need to bluff.

Edited July 19, 2020 by NobodyInParticular
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[debtlessmanc]

22 hours ago, NobodyInParticular said:

 That's something that's about to get a lot more complicated for businesses with supply chains involving Europe, so it seems an odd complaint.

90% of her companies sales are the us and far east.

Edited July 20, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[debtlessmanc]

On 17/07/2020 at 22:12, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Your uncle would be very ashamed of you.

Why do you keep posting this? I guess you believe it to be offensive to me? Believe me you would far rather spend an hour arguing with me about it then Uncle Bill, if you came out alive in his case. The past is a foreign country...

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

20 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

There are two forms of Brexit, “Elite Brexit”, and “Grassroots Brexit”. 
Elite Brexit is all about achieving small state, untrammelled free market capitalism, Britain as a buccaneering nation uninhibited by a socially-leaning, big government EU.

Grassroots Brexit is about reducing immigration, having more money to fund public services like the NHS, bringing back the old days and sticking it to Johnny Foreigner.

The thing that binds them together is the word “sovereignty”. No one can actually agree on what sovereignty means, so it’s not an actual demand with an achievable goal, it’s more of a rallying cry for true believers. 

One thing that I am certain of is that EVERYONE is going to be disappointed with Brexit. Elite Brexit supporters will be disappointed because Brexit is going to lead to less free trade, less free movement, more red tape, and bigger, more interventionist government. Grassroots brexit supporters will be disappointed because they’ll still be forgotten because the don’t live in London, we’ll still have immigrants, and some of them will still be driving around in nicer cars than they have. And remainers will be disappointed because, well, Brexit. 

So there you have it. At least there’s something we can all agree on. It’s all someone else’s fault. 

But that’s what Brexshit was all about the jealous thicko leavers who blame others for their failings dragging the rest down to their level. 

[Bob8]

20 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

90% of her companies sales are the us and far east.

Being largely EU based these days (my last job was more international), I would be interested to know what sort of regulations in particular you wife has to deal with that will ease?

I have worked in the USA and EU, but not so frequently in trade between the two.

Thanks!

[Bob8]

7 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

But that’s what Brexshit was all about the jealous thicko leavers who blame others for their failings dragging the rest down to their level. 

There were also naive thickos on the other side. Most people are not interested in politics and the rationalisation of our views comes afterwards. If we were right, it is probably luck.

[slawek]

Once again what was promised. So far a big failure.

 

[crouch]

31 minutes ago, slawek said:

Once again what was promised. So far a big failure.

 

Most of what was promised in the video relates to the future so it has not yet happened. How can it therefore have failed?

[slawek]

1 minute ago, crouch said:

Most of what was promised in the video relates to the future so it has not yet happened. How can it therefore have failed?

This was promised before the referendum. Brexit has already happened and there is no signs that any of those promises are going be fulfilled any time soon.

What is worse, contrary to promises, the prices has risen, immigration is as high as it was, red tape and costs of doing business will increase, we are already poorer, ruled by unelected and unaccountable SPADs. A total failure. 

[NobodyInParticular]

1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

90% of her companies sales are the us and far east.

Supply chains not sales.

And if 90% of her sales and perhaps supply are outside the EU then why did she have to make things more difficult for others by voting for Brexit?

[debtlessmanc]

3 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Supply chains not sales.

And if 90% of her sales and perhaps supply are outside the EU then why did she have to make things more difficult for others by voting for Brexit?

IT/software does not supply chains. sorry i cannot act as a conduit!

They have now opened an office in states and moved some people put there (actually other eu state citizens!)

[crouch]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

This was promised before the referendum. Brexit has already happened and there is no signs that any of those promises are going be fulfilled any time soon.

What is worse, contrary to promises, the prices has risen, immigration is as high as it was, red tape and costs of doing business will increase, we are already poorer, ruled by unelected and unaccountable SPADs. A total failure. 

The promises were made before the referendum but the subject of those promises were about the long term after the referendum.

How can a long term project fail when we are not much more than six months into it? It may fail ultimately but calling it a failure before it's even off the ground is childish.

[Confusion of VIs]

21 hours ago, crouch said:

Putting it another way you're saying we could have had something we've never had. Ever heard the saying: "you'll never miss what you've never had"?

What this means is that Brexit will always be painless because we'll never miss what we've never had or stand no chance of getting. ?

Oh we will definitely miss it, that missing GDP was in effect already spent in the governments forward plans.

The effect of it going missing was clear to see in the 2020 budget report. A report that assumed we have a good Brexit deal and nothing else turns up to further knock our public finances. 

The only real question is how the pain will be spread. 

 

  

[crouch]

6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Oh we will definitely miss it, that missing GDP was in effect already spent in the governments forward plans.

The effect of it going missing was clear to see in the 2020 budget report. A report that assumed we have a good Brexit deal and nothing else turns up to further knock our public finances. 

The only real question is how the pain will be spread. 

 

  

Indeed but you can't miss it at the end of the day. "Missing" implies comparison with another state and that state does not exist - it's a "what might have been" - even if you accept the premises as correct.

Now you will say this is semantics and in a way you are right, but not completely. Brexit will IMVsimply fade away in the public's imagination; in a few years people won't care; both the UK and EU will have moved on and different issues have come to the fore. I don't particularly welcome this nor am I suggesting that Brexit should not be scrutinised; I'm simply saying it will fade as an issue.

[thecrashingisles]

9 minutes ago, crouch said:

Indeed but you can't miss it at the end of the day. "Missing" implies comparison with another state and that state does not exist - it's a "what might have been" - even if you accept the premises as correct.

Now you will say this is semantics and in a way you are right, but not completely. Brexit will IMVsimply fade away in the public's imagination; in a few years people won't care; both the UK and EU will have moved on and different issues have come to the fore. I don't particularly welcome this nor am I suggesting that Brexit should not be scrutinised; I'm simply saying it will fade as an issue.

Brexiteer 1: "I'm sure we didn't used to have to bother with visas to go to Spain."

Brexiteer 2: "Nah, you're imagining it."

Brexiteer 1: "I distinctly remember being waved through. Look, it says on my passport 'European Union'."

Brexiteer 2: "Oh yeah, it says so on mine too. They can't discriminate against us! We're European citizens!"

[IMHAL]

48 minutes ago, crouch said:

Indeed but you can't miss it at the end of the day. "Missing" implies comparison with another state and that state does not exist - it's a "what might have been" - even if you accept the premises as correct.

Let's test this, So, if you have 100k in the bank and someone stole it from you, money in the bank simply being a promise, an assurance that one could do something with it. The 'future state' of that money being spent has not happened yet. Therefore, according to you, you would not miss it. If you really believe this then give me your money...I am open to testing out your hypothesis

 

 

[Huggy]

1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

Brexiteer 1: "I'm sure we didn't used to have to bother with visas to go to Spain."

Brexiteer 2: "Nah, you're imagining it."

Brexiteer 1: "I distinctly remember being waved through. Look, it says on my passport 'European Union'."

Brexiteer 2: "Oh yeah, it says so on mine too. They can't discriminate against us! We're European citizens!"

Bit early to be on the sauce isn't it?

However, I agree that any cost of a visa is an additional cost I will have to pay on my next trip to the EU. The effort in getting any visa is an additional time cost too. If we had remained in the EU, these costs would be zero.

I'm still happy with Brexit at the moment ? Even with made up GDP losses

Edited July 20, 2020 by Huggy

[crouch]

34 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Let's test this, So, if you have 100k in the bank and someone stole it from you, money in the bank simply being a promise, an assurance that one could do something with it. The 'future state' of that money being spent has not happened yet. Therefore, according to you, you would not miss it. If you really believe this then give me your money...I am open to testing out your hypothesis

 

 

Thank you for a totally inappropriate analogy. 

Obviously you've never heard the term: "you can't miss what you've never had". Trying to bend your analogy might be that according to you Brexit will fail so we would have had 100 but we've only got 90; the extra 10 being a purely theoretical construct. We only have the 90 so we cannot miss the 10 because we never had it in the first place. 

[Huggy]

22 minutes ago, crouch said:

Thank you for a totally inappropriate analogy. 

Obviously you've never heard the term: "you can't miss what you've never had". Trying to bend your analogy might be that according to you Brexit will fail so we would have had 100 but we've only got 90; the extra 10 being a purely theoretical construct. We only have the 90 so we cannot miss the 10 because we never had it in the first place. 

If we had not joined the EU/EEC in the first place, it would have been £200k ?

[IMHAL]

34 minutes ago, crouch said:

Thank you for a totally inappropriate analogy. 

I am simply using the logic as you have defined it in another situation, one where your logic can be tested. I think it is entiurely appropriate that if your believe your own logic then you will give me £100k and not miss it. 

I on the other hand have already made plans to spend the money that you are going to give me....and I promise you, I will miss it if you do not hand it over

Quote

Obviously you've never heard the term: "you can't miss what you've never had". Trying to bend your analogy might be that according to you Brexit will fail so we would have had 100 but we've only got 90; the extra 10 being a purely theoretical construct. We only have the 90 so we cannot miss the 10 because we never had it in the first place. 

Irrelevant, or more precisely, repetition.

Edited July 20, 2020 by IMHAL

[Confusion of VIs]

27 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Bit early to be on the sauce isn't it?

However, I agree that any cost of a visa is an additional cost I will have to pay on my next trip to the EU. The effort in getting any visa is an additional time cost too. If we had remained in the EU, these costs would be zero.

I'm still happy with Brexit at the moment ? Even with made up GDP losses

What about the £13bn a year customs costs?  

Isn't it a lot of money to spend on making trade more difficult?

[crouch]

29 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Irrelevant, or more precisely, repetition.

Goes directly to your point.

[Riedquat]

Trying to equate not getting a hypothetical extra with a getting something then losing it is pretty ridiculous.