Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[OnionTerror]

14 minutes ago, crouch said:

The dynamics are of course theoretical but the circumstances which provide their basis are not - unfortunately. The point is that under these circumstances, which are universal ( very few countries are in a good position) the magnitude of the required changes is such that Brexit does pale into insignificance; I wish it were otherwise.

...and if it were the case, a hard Brexit will make it even harder to recover...

[crouch]

42 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

...and if it were the case, a hard Brexit will make it even harder to recover...

Indeed it will; it would be much better if we were next to a prosperous and growing EU; that would make the period of adjustment for the UK that much easier.

Edited July 5, 2020 by crouch

[thecrashingisles]

3 hours ago, crouch said:

If you were a board member of The World Inc (Europe) Brexit would even get to item number 487 on the agenda. 

Which is one reason why Brexit cannot succeed. It was sold as a major geopolitical event. If nobody cares, it loses any purpose.

[Byron]

19 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Actually, I think even most remainers are just plain sick of Brexit, sick of not knowing what Brexit is or what it will become, sick of both remainers and leavers being divided by the issue. Most just want to see an end to it. In that spirit I think most will wait to see what happens as there is no choice in the matter. But, if Brexit turns our to be harmful, then i think you will see a backlash, not in 50yrs or 25yrs....but much much sooner than that.

If Brexit means being poorer, my guess is that the majority will seek a change of direction.

I agree. The present debate is over, we are out.

What the future holds is beyond our ken, we can hazard guesses either way.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, Byron said:

I agree. The present debate is over, we are out.

What the future holds is beyond our ken, we can hazard guesses either way.

New referendum!

Brexit has made the average Brit much poorer.

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[IMHAL]

3 hours ago, Byron said:

I agree. The present debate is over, we are out.

What the future holds is beyond our ken, we can hazard guesses either way.

You have just captured what I find so utterly moronic about Brexiteers. That they would vote for something not having a scooby about how it might pan out, not having a strategy for improving our situation and dismissing all risks along the way.

Brexiteers really are a blight on the Uk...scammers and snake oilers ...... no to worry tho, in a short couple of years the majority will feel the effects and make their feeling known.

[erat_forte]

3 hours ago, Byron said:

I agree. The present debate is over, we are out.

What the future holds is beyond our ken, we can hazard guesses either way.

Not true. We can shape that future by the decisions we (collectively) make.

Watching helplessly as charlatans asset-strip the country is one possible choice.

Setting up a socialist republic is another possible choice.

Negotiating trade agreements to align the UK with the strategic interests of the USA is another possible choice.

Negotiating a trade agreement with the EU to align the UK with the strategic interests of the EU is another possible choice.

Do you have a preference from these, or do you have a different preference? Let us hear it!

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

The current administration will dictate and seed the shape of our future, no chance to influence untill the 2024 elections, when again we'll been presented with 2 faux choices.

 

 

[dugsbody]

39 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You have just captured what I find so utterly moronic about Brexiteers. That they would vote for something not having a scooby about how it might pan out, not having a strategy for improving our situation and dismissing all risks along the way.

It was an ideology driven by hatred. 

Firstly, it was anti-FOM. What I find so completely absurd is that the same brexiters who were happy to wave around the slogans "take back control of our borders" now support giving up control again immediately as they advocate to join what they're calling CANZUK. No hint of irony about this. 

And largely it was just the europhobe mentality of thinking the UK is special and not a good fit to be pooling sovereignty with Europeans. That is why it is so prevalent to see people blaming Merkel for everything and claiming the EU is just the German 4th reich by stealth.

There have been several posters in this thread who were blatantly xenophobic when it came to Germany. Like a literal hatred. They no longer seem to post here, possibly found an echo chamber where they can rage in furious unison.

[erat_forte]

42 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

The current administration will dictate and seed the shape of our future, no chance to influence untill the 2024 elections, when again we'll been presented with 2 faux choices.

 

 

True in a way - even then no real chance to influence.

But I also think that the general mood of the population influences decision-making, through the media and general attitudes.

[slawek]

At least some Leavers start to realise how they have messed up. These are Flexcit guys aka "Lets make another EU for our sole benefit"

 

[pig]

2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

It was an ideology driven by hatred. 

Firstly, it was anti-FOM. What I find so completely absurd is that the same brexiters who were happy to wave around the slogans "take back control of our borders" now support giving up control again immediately as they advocate to join what they're calling CANZUK. No hint of irony about this. 

And largely it was just the europhobe mentality of thinking the UK is special and not a good fit to be pooling sovereignty with Europeans. That is why it is so prevalent to see people blaming Merkel for everything and claiming the EU is just the German 4th reich by stealth.

There have been several posters in this thread who were blatantly xenophobic when it came to Germany. Like a literal hatred. They no longer seem to post here, possibly found an echo chamber where they can rage in furious unison.

Wasn't hard to read the xenophobia in those posts - but better out than in I guess and its good to understand the role of ethnic chauvinism in screwing the country up.

The Merkel obsession was a bit weird though, most 'real'  Brits are normally ambivalent about European leaders   - it came across more like Russian trolling. That wouldn't exactly be taking back control either....

[pig]

17 minutes ago, slawek said:

At least some Leavers start to realise how they have messed up. These are Flexcit guys aka "Lets make another EU for our sole benefit"

 

Interesting thread - that must represent well over half the Leave vote. Tbh 'headbangers' aside it pretty much undermines almost everything argued by Leave so far.

[thecrashingisles]

18 minutes ago, pig said:

The Merkel obsession was a bit weird though, most 'real'  Brits are normally ambivalent about European leaders   - it came across more like Russian trolling. That wouldn't exactly be taking back control either....

There's a lot of misogyny involved too.

[dugsbody]

39 minutes ago, slawek said:

At least some Leavers start to realise how they have messed up. These are Flexcit guys aka "Lets make another EU for our sole benefit"

 

Well of course. Who did they think they were jumping into bed with?

You stir up a population with bullsh...  you're going to end up with bullsh...

They've broken the UK.

Edited July 6, 2020 by dugsbody

[dugsbody]

16 hours ago, crouch said:

Indeed it will; it would be much better if we were next to a prosperous and growing EU; that would make the period of adjustment for the UK that much easier.

He wasn't talking about the EU. He was talking about the intrinsic negative effects of a hard brexit on the UK. 

(you know that of course, but you had to find a way to shift again)

[pig]

5 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Well of course. Who did they think they were jumping into bed with?

You stir up a population with bullsh...  you're going to end up with bullsh...

They've broken the UK.

 

Played by the hedge funds too by the sound of it:

 

Quote

 

From the financial data publicly available, Byline Times can reveal that currently £4,563,350,000 (£4.6 billion) of aggregate short positions on a ‘no deal’ Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign. 

Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU Referendum result. The ones which didn’t typically didn’t exist at that time but are invariably connected via directorships to companies that did. 

Another £3,711,000,000 (£3.7 billion) of these short positions have been taken out by firms that donated to the Vote Leave campaign, but did not donate directly to the Johnson leadership campaign.

Currently, £8,274,350,000 (£8.3 billion) of aggregate short positions has been taken out by hedge funds connected to the Prime Minister and his Vote Leave campaign, run by his advisor Dominic Cummings, on a ‘no deal’ Brexit. 

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

 

 

[crouch]

12 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

He wasn't talking about the EU. He was talking about the intrinsic negative effects of a hard brexit on the UK. 

(you know that of course, but you had to find a way to shift again)

Economic effects are a combination of the intrinsic and the extrinsic; if the EU is in trouble it affects the UK and that effect depends on the degree of"trouble". This is an obvious point which only a total ignoramus would deny.

Your stupidity knows no bounds; any explanation is dismissed as either sophistry or outright lies and everything comes back to a hatred of "furriners". 

[jonb2]

20 minutes ago, crouch said:

Economic effects are a combination of the intrinsic and the extrinsic; if the EU is in trouble it affects the UK and that effect depends on the degree of"trouble". This is an obvious point which only a total ignoramus would deny.

Your stupidity knows no bounds; any explanation is dismissed as either sophistry or outright lies and everything comes back to a hatred of "furriners". 

Weird. Getting weirder.

 

[crouch]

7 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Weird. Getting weirder.

 

I'm glad you agree with me.

[pig]

14 minutes ago, crouch said:

Economic effects are a combination of the intrinsic and the extrinsic; if the EU is in trouble it affects the UK and that effect depends on the degree of"trouble". This is an obvious point which only a total ignoramus would deny.

Your stupidity knows no bounds; any explanation is dismissed as either sophistry or outright lies and everything comes back to a hatred of "furriners". 

I reread It and yes your posts were evasive and a little strange.

But not uncharacteristic: you generally keep on begging everybody to stop scrutinising Brexit, criticise it in 40 years time, its insignificant. Don't look here, look anywhere except for here, everything else is more important....

Has it never occurred to you that it comes across as a tad disingenuous ? Leave infamously made a point of not having anything of substance to scrutinise or perhaps you are simply another empty nationalist ?

I wonder what those ignoramuses at the Leave Alliance think of it ?:

 

 

[crouch]

33 minutes ago, pig said:

I reread It and yes your posts were evasive and a little strange.

But not uncharacteristic: you generally keep on begging everybody to stop scrutinising Brexit, criticise it in 40 years time, its insignificant. Don't look here, look anywhere except for here, everything else is more important....

You're reading ulterior motive where there is none.

The economic effects of leaving cannot be divorced from what happens in the EU. You and others are continually saying that the EU is a huge bloc on our doorstep and we will be hugely impacted by leaving. We will also be impacted by any troubles this large bloc has and they do have troubles by their own admission. You may not think this is relevant to the UK: I do. 

I was replying to Dave Beans posting by saying that our own difficulties in transition would be hugely compounded by those that would likely be experienced in the EU; it would mean we would be in a worse position, possibly much worse position. How is this evasive or disingenuous? I would have thought it was a statement of the bleedin' obvious.

I do not say stop scrutinising Brexit at all; my position is that it is just one influence of many and is, in fact, largely inscrutable because of that; far too much imputation is involved. "Largely inscrutable" means that it is incapable of being scrutinised not that you would not want to scrutinise it. I would be delighted if we could scrutinise this because, as many have said it would enable a much better judgement to be made on the project and no one should be afraid of that if it can be done in a rational manner. I don't think it can be which is why I take the stance I do.

40 years? Enough time to allow economic actors to adapt. I might be 10, which I would say is a minimum.

33 minutes ago, pig said:

Has it never occurred to you that it comes across as a tad disingenuous ? Leave infamously made a point of not having anything of substance to scrutinise or perhaps you are simply another empty nationalist ?

You assume it is disingenuous; largely it is not although I confess to poking fun sometimes. 

I don't fit into a standard Leaver profile in many ways and feel no obligation to do so so I really don't care what others say or believe.

Edited July 6, 2020 by crouch

[pig]

14 minutes ago, crouch said:

You're reading ulterior motive where there is none.

The economic effects of leaving cannot be divorced from what happens in the EU. You and others are continually saying that the EU is a huge bloc on our doorstep and we will be hugely impacted by leaving. We will also be impacted by any troubles this large bloc has and they do have troubles by their own admission. You may not think this is relevant to the UK: I do. 

I was replying to Dave Beans posting by saying that our own difficulties in transition would be hugely compounded by those that would likely be experienced in the EU; it would mean we would be in a worse position, possibly much worse position. How is this evasive or disingenuous? I would have thought it was a statement of the bleedin' obvious.

I do not say stop scrutinising Brexit at all; my position is that it is just one influence of many and is, in fact, largely inscrutable because of that; far too much imputation is involved. "Largely inscrutable" means that it is incapable of being scrutinised not that you would not want to scrutinise it. I would be delighted if we could scrutinise this because, as many have said it would enable a much better judgement to be made on the project and no one should be afraid of that if it can be done in a rational manner. I don't think it can be which is why I take the stance I do.

40 years? Enough time to allow economic actors to adapt. I might be 10, which I would say is a minimum.

You assume it is disingenuous; largely it is not although I confess to poking fun sometimes. 

I don't fit into a standard Leaver profile in many ways and feel no obligation to do so so I really don't care what others say or believe.

No.

Our problem - as pointed out by  @Dave Beans,  @dugsbody and a p1ssed off Leave Alliance is that the headbangers have dragged us toward a batsh1t Brexit .

Insisting this is all insignificant or trying to shift debate to the state of the EU is comically weird.

[crouch]

10 minutes ago, pig said:

Insisting this is all insignificant or trying to shift debate to the state of the EU is comically weird.

No one is trying to shift debate anywhere. My view is that to get a rounded view of this issue and where we end up you can't ignore what is happening with the EU.

As for it being insignificant I stand by that.

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Economic effects are a combination of the intrinsic and the extrinsic; if the EU is in trouble it affects the UK and that effect depends on the degree of"trouble". This is an obvious point which only a total ignoramus would deny.

Your stupidity knows no bounds; any explanation is dismissed as either sophistry or outright lies and everything comes back to a hatred of "furriners". 

The thing is crouch, you try to pass me off a "stupid" because I look right through your own sophistry. You think you're being smart about it but you are very transparent, hence why everyone here calls you out on it.

When the topic is the impact of a hard brexit on the UK economy, you manage to turn it around into "yes, having the EU in trouble from a hard brexit will impact the UK negatively".

Subtle shift, but you manage to again make it about EU problems. I can't imagine that you're unaware that you do this.

You may like to keep brexit as appearing sensible but the problem is, in reality, it isn't, and all the evidence and posting from your fellow brexiters reveals this continuously. It most definitely was an emotional anti-reaction based on the usual in-group / out-group feelings. It is revealed constantly. 

Explain why the slogan "control of our borders" was so, so core to the brexit message, and then immediately on leaving the EU and regaining "control of our borders", brexiters suddenly stop caring about this slogan and want to sign up to free movement with a group of conveniently angloshpere nations?