Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Kosmin]

8 hours ago, longgone said:

So leaving the eu is not that bad after all then.

I think we all know it's a crock of chit.

Biggest risk is drop of the pound nowt much else. My only wealth is fiat pound and I am not concerned.

Personally they can keep their goods I don't want them. And If I do I will pay more.

The drop in the pound isn't the biggest risk. It's something which has already happened due to the expectation of it going badly. Much worse things are risked. Maybe there will be terrorism if the break up the union doesn't go smoothly. The government is preparing for riots.

If you really are cut off from Europe, does it affect you either way?

[pig]

57 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Of course I can, you don't have to go back too far for evidence.

Because they are respecting the Leave vote and putting their constituents before party?

 

Any thoughts on being triggered by those tweets upthread or any of the unanswered questions upthread? 

Wow that’s impressive.  
So instead of Remoaniacs frustrating Brexit you think they would go as far as sacrificing their political principles for the sake of an orderly Brexit to protect their constituents  - however contemptible its political flavour ? 

Surely even if that involved faulty thinking, that would take agonising levels of maturity, concern for/duty of care to their constituents ? Well, in some cases it could be simply for getting re-elected! - but then isn’t Ken Clarke also going to vote for the deal ?

[GrizzlyDave]

57 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Boom & Bust? 

?

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

The drop in the pound isn't the biggest risk. It's something which has already happened due to the expectation of it going badly. Much worse things are risked. Maybe there will be terrorism if the break up the union doesn't go smoothly. The government is preparing for riots.

If you really are cut off from Europe, does it affect you either way?

You may have disruptions in Ireland those people have never  gone away and never will they are indoctrinated with hate for each other at birth.

Does not affect me personally I can obtain a dual nationality passport anyway. 

What everway the wind blows someone will profit from it.

I live with very minimal needs anyway so it does not really concern me. I just feel a hard hitting change is needed not that brexit is it but it sends a message everything is not plain sailing.

 

[Kosmin]

8 hours ago, longgone said:

You may have disruptions in Ireland those people have never  gone away and never will they are indoctrinated with hate for each other at birth.

It may just be Ireland, but it wasn't last time. There were bombings other places, like London, Brighton and Birmingham. 

[longgone]

6 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

It may just be Ireland, but it wasn't last time. There were bombings other places, like London, Brighton and Birmingham. 

Well with change brings great responsibility.

I have experienced the bombings from breakaway Groups first hand.

All this discussion you have to wonder why Cameron would risk the vote delusion maybe.

[rollover]

Today, it feels like decisive moment and great turning point for remainers.

Very well done!

[onlooker]

2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Actually the ERM was secondary. The main problem was inflation hunting. Like all right wing economist-driven governments, they thought inflation was the main bad thing and used interest rates to 'control it'. A mistake many now admit to. And possibly the inverse of what we have now. The pendulum has gone over to another dire extreme where the super-rich pay no interest for their burgeoning asset portfolios.

I never said that the social housing was demolished did I? I said it was privatised which it was. But I see your point. The issue is that not enough housing is being built. Plus employment for a huge swathe of workers will never pay enough to let them own a house. We have increasingly crappier jobs, so this trend is not reversible on our current trend vector.

The illusion with Brexit will make things better. They won't until inequality becomes something important in somebody's manifesto.

Interest rates were raised to counter inflation in 1989/90. Inflation had got out of control due to the policy of shadowing the Deutschmark. The UK economy was rapidly slowing and needed lower rates, but because of our membership of the ERM this could not be done, and John Major almost crashed the economy due to his stupidity.

you may have a crappy job which doesn’t enable you to buy the house you think you are entitled to, but the market in houses is still relatively buoyant, so most people can buy. Move to Latvia. Houses are cheap there.

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I've replied and still waiting on Slawek providing a link to the Leave/Remain graph upthread.

Here you go 

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Yup Kosmin. I've posted this graph several times in answer to Sheeple and others who claim that the EU was a central cause of woe to most of the population - never got a response in argument. Here it is again, twice

...

 

 

On 17/10/2019 at 14:27, Sheeple Splinter said:

Do you have a link for the graph below...

… since it seems to undermine a long running narrative? 

 

 

 

On 07/10/2019 at 12:20, slawek said:

The theoretical margin error (90% confidence interval) of a lead for a single poll was around +/-8% . It was a double the error for the percentage of people supporting Remain (or Leave),  1% increase in Remain decreases Leave by 1%, so the lead increases by 2%. 

See below how noisy are single polls

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

29 minutes ago, pig said:

Wow that’s impressive.  
So instead of Remoaniacs frustrating Brexit you think they would go as far as sacrificing their political principles for the sake of an orderly Brexit to protect their constituents  - however contemptible its political flavour ? 

Surely even if that involved faulty thinking, that would take agonising levels of maturity, concern for/duty of care to their constituents ? Well, in some cases it could be simply for getting re-elected! - but then isn’t Ken Clarke also going to vote for the deal ?

It would appear you are oblivious to the contents of Labour's GE2017 manifesto, the latest WA and the significance of your faux pas regarding a facet of the current parliamentary strategy in the tweets which triggered you upthread?

[pig]

8 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

It would appear you are oblivious to the contents of Labour's GE2017 manifesto, the latest WA and the significance of your faux pas regarding a facet of the current parliamentary strategy in the tweets which triggered you upthread?

So you don’t envisiage Labour or Ken Clarke et al voting for a WA deal ?!

I’m confused/surprised !

I thought we were happily agreeing they could vote for it ?

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

...

The government has taken a lot of steps to keep housing unaffordable. There is cross-party consensus to continue to do so (extend HTB). If people wanted to make property affordable, we could have had groups campaigning for that, much like the Referendum Party, UKIP, Leave campaign and the Brexit Party. I think it would be easier for them to have success because the benefits are more obvious and the number of losers are much smaller, and there aren't difficulties of negotiations and transitions to new regulatory regimes. All that would be required would be changes  to some of the following: taxes, tenancy law, mortgage regulation, building and planning, housing benefit, monetary policy.

Currently, any policy that would drive down house prices would be vote losers across all parties.

That said, at least the BTL, Section 24 regime has been effective.

[copydude]

18 minutes ago, rollover said:

Today, it feels like decisive moment and great turning point for remainers.

Very well done!

Don't you mean 'Well Done, Boris' ?

With almost zero majority, he fires a couple of dozen Tories . . . ten of whom voted against him.

And for an encore, he throws the DUP under a bus, who under May at least had the good grace to abstain while getting their palms greased.

Well played, sir. Not.

[rollover]

5 minutes ago, copydude said:

Don't you mean 'Well Done, Boris' ?

With almost zero majority, he fires a couple of dozen Tories . . . ten of whom voted against him.

And for an encore, he throws the DUP under a bus, who under May at least had the good grace to abstain while getting their palms greased.

Well played, sir. Not.

I really feel now that he is the right man to wreck Brexit.

[Sheeple Splinter]

57 minutes ago, longgone said:

You may have disruptions in Ireland those people have never  gone away and never will they are indoctrinated with hate for each other at birth.

Does not affect me personally I can obtain a dual nationality passport anyway. 

What everway the wind blows someone will profit from it.

I live with very minimal needs anyway so it does not really concern me. I just feel a hard hitting change is needed not that brexit is it but it sends a message everything is not plain sailing.

 

I can see some parallels between NI and Brexit sectarianism. Perhaps both sides can consider reconciliation and compromise vis the WA?

[thehowler]

31 minutes ago, rollover said:

Did BJ sent a letter to the EU asking Brussels for a delay?

I'm just asking because he still has bit time, by 11pm tonight.

What happens at 11 if he hasn't posted it? Are you going to send Black Rod around to arrest him? I think you'll have to wait until Monday for the Scots court case to resume. And I expect the govt will take it to the SC. We'll have ten days before no deal. If Parliament strives to make a govt powerless, ultimately they must form a new government. Courts are not puppets.

What happened today?

Today, Parliament snubbed the EU.

Today, Parliament decided to delay a decision on a choice put forward by the EU because it was scared of deciding to leave.

Parliament didn't table a 2nd ref amendment to the vote because MPs who want a 2nd ref were scared of losing it.

Parliament didn't dare to vote on revoke.

Parliament won't go to a GE, because they are scared of a Tory majority - and losing their jobs.

Today had nothing to do with democracy.

Yet many remainers cheer this Parliament. And some shine with glee about Boris sending a letter.

When he does send the letter - assuming he does - how soon are you expecting to hear back from the EU? From my reading of the Benn Act there is no deadline for the EU to respond. I imagine they will answer in the first instance that a deal has been proposed and they really need to know whether British MPs approve of it or not, before deciding on extensions.

Does that not strike you as reasonable? Why should they have to give us another extension?

Our EU friends have offered us a deal. They want to know - do we want it? What is the answer from Parliament? We're not ready. We need more time. It's an important decision and we've only had...coming up for four years.

If MPs refuse to make a choice on the EU deal, the EU will need to convene another member states summit, I think, before making a decision. It will be up to the EU when they wish to do this.

And will MPs refuse to pass a meaningful vote before the EU agree to extend? Are they going to hold the EU to ransom too?

The Lord Pannick written amend...er, sorry, Letwin Amendment was either drafted to safeguard the UK from no deal (in the event that MPs voted not to pass the requisite legislation after passing the WA), or it was designed - in haste and alarm given that Boris had managed to get a deal and nobody believed it was possible he would - to make sure we kick any decision into next year. In my view, Labour/other oppo groups could always have safeguarded us from no deal after the WA, just by voting for the legislation. So the Letwin amendment was put in place to make sure we extend into the New Year.

Remainers want to wait. It's the best they can manage right now. Leavers want to leave.

Ultimately the courts will tire of Parliament using them to control this govt, and ask quite rightly why Parliament doesn't select a new govt.

Ultimately, the vote cannot be swerved.

[OnionTerror]

13 minutes ago, thehowler said:

What happens at 11 if he hasn't posted it? Are you going to send Black Rod around to arrest him? I think you'll have to wait until Monday for the Scots court case to resume. And I expect the govt will take it to the SC. We'll have ten days before no deal. If Parliament strives to make a govt powerless, ultimately they must form a new government. Courts are not puppets.

What happened today?

Today, Parliament snubbed the EU.

Today, Parliament decided to delay a decision on a choice put forward by the EU because it was scared of deciding to leave.

Parliament didn't table a 2nd ref amendment to the vote because MPs who want a 2nd ref were scared of losing it.

Parliament didn't dare to vote on revoke.

Parliament won't go to a GE, because they are scared of a Tory majority - and losing their jobs.

Today had nothing to do with democracy.

Yet many remainers cheer this Parliament. And some shine with glee about Boris sending a letter.

When he does send the letter - assuming he does - how soon are you expecting to hear back from the EU? From my reading of the Benn Act there is no deadline for the EU to respond. I imagine they will answer in the first instance that a deal has been proposed and they really need to know whether British MPs approve of it or not, before deciding on extensions.

Does that not strike you as reasonable? Why should they have to give us another extension?

Our EU friends have offered us a deal. They want to know - do we want it? What is the answer from Parliament? We're not ready. We need more time. It's an important decision and we've only had...coming up for four years.

If MPs refuse to make a choice on the EU deal, the EU will need to convene another member states summit, I think, before making a decision. It will be up to the EU when they wish to do this.

And will MPs refuse to pass a meaningful vote before the EU agree to extend? Are they going to hold the EU to ransom too?

The Lord Pannick written amend...er, sorry, Letwin Amendment was either drafted to safeguard the UK from no deal (in the event that MPs voted not to pass the requisite legislation after passing the WA), or it was designed - in haste and alarm given that Boris had managed to get a deal and nobody believed it was possible he would - to make sure we kick any decision into next year. In my view, Labour/other oppo groups could always have safeguarded us from no deal after the WA, just by voting for the legislation. So the Letwin amendment was put in place to make sure we extend into the New Year.

Remainers want to wait. It's the best they can manage right now. Leavers want to leave.

Ultimately the courts will tire of Parliament using them to control this govt, and ask quite rightly why Parliament doesn't select a new govt.

Ultimately, the vote cannot be swerved.

I wonder if the extension might only be granted only if the WA is passed - whether Boris thinks the same is another matter.  If not, then the EU might say that they have negotiated in good faith, and that's that.  Effectively blaming the UK parliament's indecision for no deal.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Dave Beans

[Kosmin]

8 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Currently, any policy that would drive down house prices would be vote losers across all parties.

That said, at least the BTL, Section 24 regime has been effective.

If your first sentence is right, then how did the Conservatives get away with section 24?

I think the vast majority of people who "benefit" from high house prices and simultaneously harmed by them. They like that their house could be sold for £500k instead of £250k, but they don't like that their children are unable to afford to buy or even struggle to rent their own place. The people could easily be persuaded that the benefits of lower prices would outweigh the disadvantages.

[Bruce Banner]

I think that parliament will only attempt to revoke as a last ditch measure to stop an imminent no deal exit.

[Kosmin]

9 hours ago, rollover said:

Did BJ sent a letter to the EU asking Brussels for a delay?

I'm just asking because he still has bit time, by 11pm tonight.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-19/johnson-asks-eu-for-brexit-delay-but-hopes-he-won-t-need-it?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business

[thehowler]

6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I wonder if the extension might only be granted only if the WA is passed - whether Boris thinks the same is another matter.  If not, then the EU might say that they have negotiated in good faith, and that's that.

I do think that today makes it look rather like remain groups are in opposition with the EU's wishes, which is odd given they're typically Europhiles.

Messages out of the EU over next day or two will be interesting, France already sounding quite hard line - expected.

[Sheeple Splinter]

28 minutes ago, pig said:

So you don’t envisiage Labour or Ken Clarke et al voting for a WA deal ?!

I’m confused/surprised !

I thought we were happily agreeing they could vote for it ?

Yes you are. 

I was pointing out to you that the No Deal option has been and can be stopped by a parliamentary majority of any hue.

 Here's your triggered post:

11 hours ago, pig said:

Er... just read they were asking the AG if this gets them ‘no-deal’.

There will be no ‘leave and then heal’....

and also:

 

 

 

[OnionTerror]

3 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I do think that today makes it look rather like remain groups are in opposition with the EU's wishes, which is odd given they're typically Europhiles.

Messages out of the EU over next day or two will be interesting, France already sounding quite hard line - expected.

It depends if they give remain/revoke some kind of opening (giving them hope) or whether its a "take it leave it" offer.  IF they go down the second route, and make that kind of statement on Monday, and the vote is held on Tuesday, then those voting against the deal could be seen as being responsible for no deal - BoJo and the EU pushing the blame away from them.  All big IFs mind.

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, onlooker said:

the market in houses is still relatively buoyant, so most people can buy

Yes, most people can buy with a 5x joint salary 30 year mortgage. It is extremely poor value.

[Dorkins]

46 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Currently, any policy that would drive down house prices would be vote losers across all parties.

How do you know that? Nobody has tested it.