Confusion of VIs Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: They can’t - Ireland will be fecked... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/15/irish-government-warns-medicine-supply-threatened-by-no-deal-brexit Not as fecked as us though. The medicines just transiting through the UK can be airfreighted easily enough. The number actually made in the UK will be far smaller. Whereas our medicines actually are made in the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Any day now. Is this before or after the EU collapses? It will be while the EU collapses. Did the vote tonight upset you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
localhero1983 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: I meet real people in pubs in leaver central (Blackpool), reality rarely seems factor in Brexit discussions. Have to agree, Brexiteers I listen to after a few pints are hoping for action on immigration that they are never going to get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dorkins said: This vote doesn't mean WTO Brexit will now happen in March 2019. The government doesn't want it. A majority of MPs don't want it. They want to find a way to prevent it, and they have the numbers. How are they going to avoid it? It's far too short a time to come to any other arrangement. Withdraw Article 50? That looks like the only answer on paper, and the consequences of that will be disastrous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Dorkins said: This vote doesn't mean WTO Brexit will now happen in March 2019. The government doesn't want it. A majority of MPs don't want it. They want to find a way to prevent it, and they have the numbers. HoC has already passed the vote to leave on 29Mar even without a deal. In order for that to change, the HoC needs to pass new legislation. But there is no majority for any option - so we leave WTO by default. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I got the impression that a 2nd Ref is the most likely . . . Labour will push it and it has cross party support. But there still remains agreement needed for the choices on the ticket. Those in favour have insisted on the choices being readily deliverable, so likely off-the shelf solutions. I don't see WTO being offered. Dominic Grieve mentioned Norway, but here you get deals not designed for the UK (it's good for ag and fish) and less advantageous than our current situation. Quite honestly, cobbling anything together now on the hoof is hardly likely to be satisfactory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Surely May can't be allowed to stay after such a crushing, humiliating, defeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Not as fecked as us though. The medicines just transiting through the UK can be airfreighted easily enough. The number actually made in the UK will be far smaller. Whereas our medicines actually are made in the EU. So we buy from Canada, or USA, or India, or China. It’s a big old world out there... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said: Surely May can't be allowed to stay after such a crushing, humiliating, defeat. AIUI her own party can't remove her, so it would require a vote of no confidence and a GE if she won't step down. Would the Tories risk that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aheadofthecurve Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, copydude said: I got the impression that a 2nd Ref is the most likely . . . Labour will push it and it has cross party support. Labour's manifesto in the last GE was one that ruled out a 2nd ref. Not to say they won't go for it (Corbyn will shill anything if he thinks it will get him as PM) but just that it is something they have not had an appetite for yet. The Lib Dems definitely do want a 2nd ref. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Riedquat said: "Recruit from further afield" - there's the next thing they're going to get raked over the coals for, this population growth Ponzi scheme. No lessons learned from Brexit I see. I suppose they, the politicians, have learnt not to give a pissed off population a referendum about anything. It's possible that they, the people, will learn that our membership of the EU had little or nothing to do with our government deciding to grow the economy by growing the population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: HoC has already passed the vote to leave on 29Mar even without a deal. In order for that to change, the HoC needs to pass new legislation. But there is no majority for any option - so we leave WTO by default. Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Surely May can't be allowed to stay after such a crushing, humiliating, defeat. She probably can because at the moment no one else wants the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Riedquat said: AIUI her own party can't remove her, so it would require a vote of no confidence and a GE if she won't step down. Would the Tories risk that? Something needs to be done, she's the laughing stock of Europe. Maybe she's thick skinned enough to shrug it off but it's not good for our image abroad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: HoC has already passed the vote to leave on 29Mar even without a deal. In order for that to change, the HoC needs to pass new legislation. But there is no majority for any option - so we leave WTO by default. I think it's highly unlikely that the 500+ MPs who are opposed to no deal are just going to sit there dumbstruck for 10 weeks. Things will already be moving behind the scenes to prevent that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, aheadofthecurve said: Labour's manifesto in the last GE was one that ruled out a 2nd ref. Not to say they won't go for it (Corbyn will shill anything if he thinks it will get him as PM) but just that it is something they have not had an appetite for yet. The Lib Dems definitely do want a 2nd ref. According to Sky, 100 Labour MPs will push for a public vote following the anticipated loss of the VONC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Dorkins said: Why are you talking about manifestos? The DUP said today they would vote with the Conservatives on a no-confidence vote. ERG MPs know that if they vote against the government on a confidence vote they will be chucked out of the party and will lose their seats. There isn't going to be a general election because May doesn't want one. May can't even be replaced as leader by her own party any more. MPs (both hard remainer and hard leaver) desperately wanted to have their big anti-WA vote. Well okay, they've done it now. Oh, but nothing's changed. The 2016 result is still the 2016 result, the PM is still the PM, the WA is still the WA. This vote doesn't mean WTO Brexit will now happen in March 2019. The government doesn't want it. A majority of MPs don't want it. They want to find a way to prevent it, and they have the numbers. I don't see how May can bring this one back now, not after a defeat of such magnitude, and equally I don't see how she can survive if she abandons all her core promises made over the last two years - end SM, end FOM, end ECJ (even though in her deal they might well have washed away). Labour are already threatening to have repeat VONCs until they pick up enough rebels. The thing that's stopping the deal is the MPs. She needs to change the MPs. Her only way to do this is GE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, dugsbody said: You don't say. I've been pointing out that the leave campaign intentionally did not specify what brexit would look like (as documented by leave campaign director, Dominic Cummings) in order to hoover up as many votes as possible. Now we get to the part where we have to work out what that means and it's backfiring spectacularly on the country. We're in this mess precisely for that reason. Congratulations. That is and continues to be their intent.....keep brexit undefined.....the ultras see their opportunity as the backstop. That is their goal.....in fact the fractured support for any tangible deal also works for them. You will never get them to admit that voters did not know what they voted for. They know that that was the case and is dangerous for their case. They have been rumbled...it smacks of orchestration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, thehowler said: I don't see how May can bring this one back now, not after a defeat of such magnitude, and equally I don't see how she can survive if she abandons all her core promises made over the last two years - end SM, end FOM, end ECJ (even though in her deal they might well have washed away). Labour are already threatening to have repeat VONCs until they pick up enough rebels. The thing that's stopping the deal is the MPs. She needs to change the MPs. Her only way to do this is GE. They need to change her! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said: They need to change her! Who for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, thehowler said: Labour are already threatening to have repeat VONCs until they pick up enough rebels. The thing that's stopping the deal is the MPs. She needs to change the MPs. Her only way to do this is GE. The DUP are sticking with May. Any Tory MP who rebels on a VONC will be immediately expelled from the party. What does a GE change? It will just return yet another parliamentary Conservative party split over Europe. Changes nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Dorkins said: I think it's highly unlikely that the 500+ MPs who are opposed to no deal are just going to sit there dumbstruck for 10 weeks. Things will already be moving behind the scenes to prevent that. They've done that for 2 1/2 years. Pushing for a second ref (as much as I find the idea completely abhorrent) would be my guess at their most likely path, although that's not going to solve things by the end of March. I suspect that they also seriously over-estimate the odds of remain winning it, and if the result doesn't go the way they want then what? Edited January 15, 2019 by Riedquat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Dorkins said: I think it's highly unlikely that the 500+ MPs who are opposed to no deal are just going to sit there dumbstruck for 10 weeks. Things will already be moving behind the scenes to prevent that. I think that is precisely what is going to happen. Despite all the desperation, and exasperation, and questing for other options; all will fail, and no deal will pass. It’s not 10 weeks is probably a couple of weeks at best; and then the focus will shift to no deal contingency work and bilateral negotiations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Dave Beans said: Who for? Someone who isn't her. I'm sure plenty of hopefuls will crawl out of the woodwork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: They need to change her! Caretaker/National Emergency PM coronation is another option for the Tories. But still no majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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