thehowler Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 34 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said: 1 hour ago, thehowler said: Thanks, I need to see a light at the end of the tunnel to a firm destination. Just can't face the prospect of a never ending Withdraw Agreement / Transition implementation period. The rubber has to hit the road soon. Er...hold your horse/s. No guarantees for how long transition might last - if we get to it - some people think it might be endless! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said: How long has this performance got to last, what are the final dates when?: 1. TMay cannot get a deal with the EU. 2. TMay has a deal with the EU but cannot get it approved by parliment. Then one or more of the following occurring: - TMay is replaced. - Gov't falls, GE called. - Hung parliment. - A50 extended. - Second People's Vote scheduled. - A50 revoked, remain in EU. - Leave the EU with a 'No Deal' hard Brexit. Any more wild card options? Gove's been pretty quiet hasn't he... I thing the mistake you are making is, you are not accepting Tory infighting and disunity. 1. TMay cannot get a deal with her Tory party 2. May has a deal with the EU that could get approved by parliament. - TMay can't be replaced. - Gov't falls, GE called. - A50 extended. - Second People's Vote scheduled. - A50 revoked, remain in EU. All Brexiters are pretty quiet now. Edited November 6, 2018 by rollover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 45 minutes ago, pig said: Lol yes all those too. God knows how people were supposed to have time to get propagandised by the Brexit press and Facebook with all that going on ! IMF too. Have to admit I didn't personally notice their 'project fear' at the time and missed the below article but their more recent take down of Britain reads like a Tufton St mobs guide to Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/22/hardcore-brexiters-real-threat-imf-warnings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/17/economic-lies-neoliberalism-taxpayers Wow - not sure how you missed all that!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Quote Arron Banks faces £135,000 fine for Brexit data breaches Businessman Arron Banks today faced fines of £135,000 for his Brexit campaign after a damning report by Britain’s data watchdog into the EU referendum. Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham also proposed a new “code of practice” to protect the UK’s democracy as she delivered a series of scathing findings into the Brexit vote in 2016. A notice of intent had been issued to fine both Leave.EU and Eldon Insurance (trading as GoSkippy) £60,000 each for “serious breaches” of regulations governing electronic marketing. A notice of intent had been issued to fine Leave.EU £15,000 for a separate, “serious breach”. Facebook has already been handed the maximum allowable fine, £500,000, by the ICO for its involvement in the Cambridge Analytica scandal. ES I think still more will come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, rollover said: All Brexiters are pretty quiet now. Don't worry, rollover, you'll get a booming fanfare when the cabinet pass May's fudge later this week/month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Gotta love this leaked deal-reveal planner note from Downing St - is it legit? Will go down well with the think tanks! Lining up lots of former foreign secs to come out in support and Mark Littelwood of the IEA (barf). Full text from Huff Post...ref only to this discussion... https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-plan-revealed_uk_5be1cb14e4b04367a8811a8f?mtt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 50 minutes ago, thehowler said: Don't worry, rollover, you'll get a booming fanfare when the cabinet pass May's fudge later this week/month. That will be really funny! What keep them all so quiet now? Did someone like Arron Banks start to talk about Brexit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: It’s lazy and easy to blame brexit as the cause in most of this. Perhaps Brexit is a factor, perhaps. Perhaps it has accelerated a few hard decisions. The future of the Uk isn’t making ball bearings or car tyres. I didn't say that Brexit was the cause but it will be a factor in all of these decisions. In the large majority of cases it will be a handicap that the UK firm has to overcome in making the case for work staying in the UK. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding our post Brexit long term trade relationship with the EU is an aggravating factor that is already undermining UK operations attempts to show that they are viable in the long term and therefore worth investing in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: I didn't say that Brexit was the cause but it will be a factor in all of these decisions. I know - it was a bit of a general statement rather than specifically what you said. In the large majority of cases it will be a handicap that the UK firm has to overcome in making the case for work staying in the UK. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding our post Brexit long term trade relationship with the EU is an aggravating factor that is already undermining UK operations attempts to show that they are viable in the long term and therefore worth investing in. Seems a reasonable assessment. The sooner we strike a deal, the sooner the uncertainty will end. But we don’t want to rush it and get a BS deal either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: Seems a reasonable assessment. The sooner we strike a deal, the sooner the uncertainty will end. But we don’t want to rush it and get a BS deal either. Thanks for your input Theresa ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) German manufacturer Schaeffler to shut two UK plants after Brexit Schaeffler says Brexit uncertainty is a factor in its decision to trim UK operations at a time of global pressures. https://news.sky.com/story/german-manufacturer-schaeffler-to-shut-two-uk-plants-after-brexit-11546123 Didnt they know better not to make tyres for diesel cars /s Brexit means brexit, end of. Edited November 7, 2018 by yelims Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy T Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, yelims said: German manufacturer Schaeffler to shut two UK plants after Brexit Schaeffler says Brexit uncertainty is a factor in its decision to trim UK operations at a time of global pressures. https://news.sky.com/story/german-manufacturer-schaeffler-to-shut-two-uk-plants-after-brexit-11546123 Didnt they know better not to make tyres for diesel cars /s Brexit means brexit, end of. For clarity, as these headlines tend to make one assume they are leaving the UK completely - " While its biggest plant, in Sheffield, will be retained, Schaeffler said the work of its two logistics centres in Hereford and Sutton Coldfield would be combined at Hereford. " " We remain committed to keeping certain activities in the UK, a country that will continue to be important to us." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 13 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: Wow - not sure how you missed all that!?! Easy peasy - although I’m sure there must have been an ‘IMF says...’ headline at the time, just didn’t really register much. For that matter I had no idea the Irish border was going to cause so much of a problem either. Leaves sales brochure simply didn’t add up and their leaders seemed untrustworthy (and I’m talking before Farages own version of the ‘caravan of fear’ signaled where politics was going). That was the core problem for me. I guess - with some interesting exceptions - I’d been inoculated by decades of idiotic stories in the British Press. Cameron and WW3 was laughable at first, but tbf on reflection it did alert me to the geo-politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: Seems a reasonable assessment. The sooner we strike a deal, the sooner the uncertainty will end. But we don’t want to rush it and get a BS deal either. Yes, but the deal follows on from the Withdrawal agreement, so another two years, maybe more of uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 On 05/11/2018 at 15:35, kzb said: When you think about it there is a logic deficit here anyway. (1) On the one hand you are accepting that elections are effectively bought. You are saying vote share is proportional to the campaign money spent. (2) On the other hand, Leave did not spend as much as Remain. So Remain's extra campaign spending failed to buy the election, which is in contradiction to (1). Much easier to accept status quo. All is well. Trust and forget Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 A $240-Billion-a-Day Market Is Leaving London Ahead of Brexit https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-06/a-240-billion-a-month-market-leaves-london-because-of-brexit Sorry if already posted: CBA reading everything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Andy T said: For clarity, as these headlines tend to make one assume they are leaving the UK completely - " While its biggest plant, in Sheffield, will be retained, Schaeffler said the work of its two logistics centres in Hereford and Sutton Coldfield would be combined at Hereford. " " We remain committed to keeping certain activities in the UK, a country that will continue to be important to us." LOL Love the corporate doublespeak Keeping the logistics arm, presumably to more efficiently distribute the soon to be their mainly foreign made products, doesn't seem like much of consolation prize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, PeanutButter said: A $240-Billion-a-Day Market Is Leaving London Ahead of Brexit https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-06/a-240-billion-a-month-market-leaves-london-because-of-brexit Sorry if already posted: CBA reading everything Hmm, I seem to recall Brexiteers saying this kind of wholesale moving of markets cannot be moved because there is no liquidity in the EU (they need us blah blah blah). Perhaps my view that there is no magic pool of liquidity in the City, that liquidity will follow the customer and the end result will be a far bigger move out of London than currently being forecast, might prove to be correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Hmm, I seem to recall Brexiteers saying this kind of wholesale moving of markets cannot be moved because there is no liquidity in the EU (they need us blah blah blah). Perhaps my view that there is no magic pool of liquidity in the City, that liquidity will follow the customer and the end result will be a far bigger move out of London than currently being forecast, might prove to be correct. Step 2 will be luring them back with massive tax breaks nicely subsidised by the gullible average Brit. But you know, at least hate-fuelled millionaire retiree Paul Dacre is receiving accolades from his sycophant peers. Such comfort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: I didn't say that Brexit was the cause but it will be a factor in all of these decisions. In the large majority of cases it will be a handicap that the UK firm has to overcome in making the case for work staying in the UK. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding our post Brexit long term trade relationship with the EU is an aggravating factor that is already undermining UK operations attempts to show that they are viable in the long term and therefore worth investing in. Brexit isn't the sole causation of business pulling out interests in the UK but it is certainly a very big part of these decisions. About 60% of the businesses operating in the UK are part or fully foreign owned and if the environment becomes uncertain what is their motivation to stay and hurt their bottom lines? Businesses that require free movement of goods and services will absolutely not stay in the UK without some massive handouts and concessions by the government. One point to make here is that we already know the government is placing restrictions on companies, ie: gag orders on pharma. I don't think anybody outwith government and the upper echelons business /commerce and can rightly state the structural changes to Britain's businesses... There's more gagging going here on that one of CCC's Benidorm flesh parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, pig said: Easy peasy - although I’m sure there must have been an ‘IMF says...’ headline at the time, just didn’t really register much. For that matter I had no idea the Irish border was going to cause so much of a problem either. Leaves sales brochure simply didn’t add up and their leaders seemed untrustworthy (and I’m talking before Farages own version of the ‘caravan of fear’ signaled where politics was going). That was the core problem for me. I guess - with some interesting exceptions - I’d been inoculated by decades of idiotic stories in the British Press. Cameron and WW3 was laughable at first, but tbf on reflection it did alert me to the geo-politics. I know what you mean about Northern Ireland. It’s only really become an issue since Varadkar got elected. BIND This is about Irish unification, nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 42 minutes ago, cashinmattress said: Brexit isn't the sole causation of business pulling out interests in the UK but it is certainly a very big part of these decisions. About 60% of the businesses operating in the UK are part or fully foreign owned and if the environment becomes uncertain what is their motivation to stay and hurt their bottom lines? Businesses that require free movement of goods and services will absolutely not stay in the UK without some massive handouts and concessions by the government. One point to make here is that we already know the government is placing restrictions on companies, ie: gag orders on pharma. I don't think anybody outwith government and the upper echelons business /commerce and can rightly state the structural changes to Britain's businesses... There's more gagging going here on that one of CCC's Benidorm flesh parties. Front page of the Times - gagging going on across a number of government departments: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I know what you mean about Northern Ireland. It’s only really become an issue since Varadkar got elected. BIND This is about Irish unification, nothing else. Don't think that's true. The border issue was the first thing the EU brought up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I know what you mean about Northern Ireland. It’s only really become an issue since Varadkar got elected. BIND This is about Irish unification, nothing else. Well, I guess, in the sense that the potential for Irish unification is part of the GFA. But then thats always been an issue ? Apart from that, other than the breaking point / caravan of fear memes I (genuinely) don't understand Leavers concept of 'border control' anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Don't think that's true. The border issue was the first thing the EU brought up. It's 100% not true but #dadsarmy (grizz) wants to believe it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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