Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Option5]

17 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Is that the street name for Rubles?  

No, the street name for Roubles is "Barnies"

[kzb]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Please make sure you have a hanky nearby, because this article is a real tear-jerker.

Brexit heartlands want someone else to pay
From Grimsby to Cornwall, Leave areas are pleading for special treatment to soften the pain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-heartlands-want-someone-else-to-pay-pthzgl35g?shareToken=171b190307d4f422ef60c5d3d196a9e5

It turns out that some special flowers can't live with the consequences of their actions. How very, unexpected.

I did get a sinking feeling watching this on TV.  We were reminded that 90% of the fish sold in Grimsby is imported. 

The UK fishing industry has been decimated whilst in the EU, this is what is so sad.  Grimsby is now just a big wholesale market where they sell imports.

Can anyone tell us what happened to "Freeports".   There was a Liverpool Freeport some years ago, I know that.  Anyway that is what Grimsby wants.

 

[tomandlu]

12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I suspect that most of the people involved in the sub prime business knew that it would not end well but decided it was not in their personal interest to call time on it. The big short showed just how hard it was to rock the boat.

IIRC a couple of CEOs did and were quickly replaced by the shareholders, prompting another to say something like "you cannot leave the dance floor while the music is still playing". In my own role a large part of my bonus depended on how accurate my forecasts turned out - something I had absolutely no control over.

Anyway back on topic.

I feel Brexit is going in the same direction, most people I get to speak to who have a deep knowledge of finance or the practicalities of negotiating new trade deals think it is going to be a disaster but feel it is not in their personal interest to start making noise about it.  Perhaps the post above is a sign of that this may be changing, it covers concerns I have been hearing discussed for months now but never seemed to be reported.        

So, anyone pointing out the emperor has no clothes gets marginalised?  I have to say, that's hardly a ringing endorsement for the status quo... (also, I find the bit in bold illuminating )

Anyway, back on topic - I'd guess it's safe to say that brexit is going to be messy, but there's so much volatility that I'm wary of forecasts. The EU is riven with financial and social instability, and the only surprising thing would be if there are no surprises (after all, we live in a world where Catalonia suddenly declares independance, we wake up to a surprise coup in Zimbabwe, and a Hollywood scandal could have potentially ended up triggering a general election in the UK).

Edited November 16, 2017 by tomandlu

[Futuroid]

25 minutes ago, kzb said:

The UK fishing industry has been decimated whilst in the EU, this is what is so sad.  Grimsby is now just a big wholesale market where they sell imports.

I've picked you up on this before I think.

It's not because of the EU that Grimsby (and other ports) import a lot of fish. It's because we don't like eating what British fishermen catch!

The UK exports things like mackerel and shellfish, but we prefer to eat tuna and salmon, which we can't catch locally (or in the case of Salmon, is cheaper elsewhere).

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/360-million-of-uk-seafood-making-a-splash-on-european-menus

The fish processing and target market varies based on the kind of fish - people like Youngs have clearly found it's more profitable to specialise rather than be general processors who can handle anything.

Nobody mentioned this to the denizens of Grimsby when they went to the polling booth though... 

P.S. WTO tariffs on fish are circa 30% Woot!

[Futuroid]

20 minutes ago, tomandlu said:

The EU is riven with financial and social instability

Do you have any evidence of the financial and social instability of the EU that it's riven with? Feel free to compare it to somewhere of equivalent size (say the USA) that is socially and financially more stable?

On the contrary, I'd say that the EU has overseen a long lasting period of financial and social stability in Europe. Especially compared to the period that preceded it.

From what I can see all the UKs financial (dot .com bubble, 2007 crash) and social ills (Poll Tax riots, London riots, housing super bubble) seem to unrelated to the EU.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

I've picked you up on this before I think.

It's not because of the EU that Grimsby (and other ports) import a lot of fish. It's because we don't like eating what British fishermen catch!

The UK exports things like mackerel and shellfish, but we prefer to eat tuna and salmon, which we can't catch locally (or in the case of Salmon, is cheaper elsewhere).

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/360-million-of-uk-seafood-making-a-splash-on-european-menus

The fish processing and target market varies based on the kind of fish - people like Youngs have clearly found it's more profitable to specialise rather than be general processors who can handle anything.

Nobody mentioned this to the denizens of Grimsby when they went to the polling booth though... 

P.S. WTO tariffs on fish are circa 30% Woot!

Yes maybe you have.

However going by the TV report I think what is behind this is a campaign for a Grimsby Freeport being created post-Brexit.

I was wondering what happened about the Freeports created in the UK in the 1980's.  Although there was mass publicity when they were created, we have heard little about them since.  In particular I remember the Liverpool Freeport was going to be the saviour of Merseyside.

Form what I can make out they no longer exist.  When did they shut and why?

[dryrot]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

Do you have any evidence of the financial and social instability of the EU that it's riven with? Feel free to compare it to somewhere of equivalent size (say the USA) that is socially and financially more stable?

On the contrary, I'd say that the EU has overseen a long lasting period of financial and social stability in Europe. Especially compared to the period that preceded it.

From what I can see all the UKs financial (dot .com bubble, 2007 crash) and social ills (Poll Tax riots, London riots, housing super bubble) seem to unrelated to the EU.

Comedy Gold! (Hint: Greece is in the EU... So is Italy and Spain.) The Euro problems have not been fixed. And Germany has specifically ruled out fiscal intergration.

[dryrot]

Just leave this here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/15/number-european-union-workers-britain-rises

"The number of people from other European Union countries working in Britain rose by 112,000 in the past year, according to the first full set of official figures published since the EU referendum."

So much for hate-filled-brexit-britain...!

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

I've picked you up on this before I think.

It's not because of the EU that Grimsby (and other ports) import a lot of fish. It's because we don't like eating what British fishermen catch!

The UK exports things like mackerel and shellfish, but we prefer to eat tuna and salmon, which we can't catch locally (or in the case of Salmon, is cheaper elsewhere).

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/360-million-of-uk-seafood-making-a-splash-on-european-menus

The fish processing and target market varies based on the kind of fish - people like Youngs have clearly found it's more profitable to specialise rather than be general processors who can handle anything.

Nobody mentioned this to the denizens of Grimsby when they went to the polling booth though... 

P.S. WTO tariffs on fish are circa 30% Woot!

Where does this obsession with fishing (catching) and the fantasy that the "collapse" of the industry is down to the EU come from.

The fishing industry hasn't shrunk at all, in terms of its capacity to catch all the fish it is safe to, so what they are really arguing against is the technology that enables one fisherman to be 20 times more productive than they were before we joined  the EU.  Does anyone really think this will change after we leave the EU.

For anyone interested in a bit of perspective the link below is interesting.

http://www.seafish.org/media/Publications/2006_I-O_Key_Features_Final_090108.pdf

[Unexpected]

5 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Please make sure you have a hanky nearby, because this article is a real tear-jerker.

Brexit heartlands want someone else to pay
From Grimsby to Cornwall, Leave areas are pleading for special treatment to soften the pain

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-heartlands-want-someone-else-to-pay-pthzgl35g?shareToken=171b190307d4f422ef60c5d3d196a9e5

It turns out that some special flowers can't live with the consequences of their actions. How very, unexpected.

"Well here’s an irony. As Brexit in whatever form gets closer and its damaging implications for trade and jobs start to become clearer, some of the regions, industries and groups that most enthusiastically supported Leave are starting to raise the alarm about its impact or demand special exemption from its consequences."

"This is cloud cuckoo land, the universe in which Brexit must and should happen, but it’s somebody else, anybody else, who must live with the inconvenient consequences of leaving the biggest free trade area in the world and introducing financial, practical and psychological barriers to the free movement of people, goods and services."

The North East, Cornwall, the Midlands, Grimsby, Farmers... Daily Mail sadfaces all round ....  

Maybe we could get Bob Geldof* to arrange a "Brex Aid" concert? A charity single perhaps... "Do they know it's Brexmas?" Johnson on lead vocals, Gove on drums, Arron Banks on lead... Farage can hold the tea and distribute the envelopes for donations from leave voters.

* Then again, I don't think Bob was so keen on the idea himself.

 I can assure you I can very much live with the consequences of my actions.

However, I do like to avoid negativity

[Confusion of VIs]

15 minutes ago, dryrot said:

Just leave this here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/15/number-european-union-workers-britain-rises

"The number of people from other European Union countries working in Britain rose by 112,000 in the past year, according to the first full set of official figures published since the EU referendum."

So much for hate-filled-brexit-britain...!

Did you note that almost all the rise was associated with entrants from Bulgaria and Romania, with the other EE states now roughly in balance. 

As I have pointed out many times before when countries are granted FoM there is an initial surge in people moving here (and other richer EU states) this peaks within around 5 years and then goes into decline eventually reaching a rough balance.

This is the position I predicted last year that we were just about to  reach in regard of the EE8 (to much mirth from the likes of ccc). It's always nice to be proved right. 

Migration from the EE states always was going to reach this rough balance, probably about the time we leave the EU (assuming a transition period of a couple of years), so in terms of migration Brexit will have been for nothing.       

[pig]

On 14/11/2017 at 9:44 AM, Riedquat said:

Sure we will solve something by leaving the EU. We won't be stuck in that overly-political, overly-federeal-minded organisation any more. All this nonsense about the far right is just typical Remainer FUD. Your comments about Hannan etc. just illustrate my point about our own government also being an issue. Don't muddle the two and use problems with one to defend the other. It's either confusion of the issues or "I'm scared with our lot so I want to run and hide under Nanny EU's skirts", without looking too closely at what she's like.

Ok then so let’s try to be clear as I’m also getting tired of you repeating this without you actually engaging.

Leavers have variously claimed money will fall from the sky, neo-liberalism will be vanquished, we’ll escape having TTIP forced on us, everybody will magically be paid more because there is nobody cheaper or better. No Polish shops or people speaking funny languages on trains, no EU citizens or terrorists raping and pillaging...and on and on it goes on this thread and others. And, presumably getting wind of the fact that actually no country exists in a vacuum and that the world is carved up into trade blocks, promoting joining up with white anglos to cling onto ‘our’ (Brexit induced!) evaporating sovereignty. Not in a racist way mind.

If all else fails, it’s just ‘change’.

Pointing out the above is total ******** and looking at what politicians actually have lined up for us through what they have said, written and done is not ‘muddling’ issues - that’s clearly a Leaver  tactic, cynical or otherwise - it’s simply applying a critical eye on the case made for Brexit and actually unpicking the muddle.

Next is understanding why is it so often Leavers credulity has been warped, why are they often even actively gratuitously fabricating (muddled) rationales ? Putintrolls ? Useful idiots ? MSM headline swallowers ? Echo-chamber junkies ?

Farage is kind of exemplary. Whatever you think of Brexit, why would you be OK praising Putin ? Whatever you think of Brexit, why would you be OK fraternising with the far right/white supremacists ? Whatever you think of Brexit why would you be OK with dog-whistle politics of quite an unpleasant variety ?

Why do these manias keep cropping up over and over again being ‘muddled’ with Brexit by Brexit leaders, fanboys and fellow travellers ?

 

[Riedquat]

The same old bunch of strawmen there,  and you have the gall to talk about not engaging. I keep repeating the point because you're failing to grasp the basics, and instead start wittering on about all sorts of other things. All you're doing is exactly what I said you're doing, trying to use failings of our own government to defend staying in the EU rather than correctly regarding them as separate issues.

Edited November 16, 2017 by Riedquat

[pig]

Just now, Riedquat said:

The same old bunch of strawmen there,  and you have the gall to talk about not engaging. I keep repeating the point because you're failing to grasp the basics, and instead start wittering on about all sorts of other things.

 ok now I know you’re taking the p1ss.

[Option5]

3 minutes ago, pig said:

Ok then so let’s try to be clear as I’m also getting tired of you repeating this without you actually engaging.

Leavers have variously claimed money will fall from the sky, neo-liberalism will be vanquished, we’ll escape having TTIP forced on us, everybody will magically be paid more because there is nobody cheaper or better. No Polish shops or people speaking funny languages on trains, no EU citizens or terrorists raping and pillaging...and on and on it goes on this thread and others. And, presumably getting wind of the fact that actually no country exists in a vacuum and that the world is carved up into trade blocks, promoting joining up with white anglos to cling onto ‘our’ (Brexit induced!) evaporating sovereignty. Not in a racist way mind.

If all else fails, it’s just ‘change’.

Pointing out the above is total ******** and looking at what politicians actually have lined up for us through what they have said, written and done is not ‘muddling’ issues - that’s clearly a Leaver  tactic, cynical or otherwise - it’s simply applying a critical eye on the case made for Brexit and actually unpicking the muddle.

Next is understanding why is it so often Leavers credulity has been warped, why are they often even actively gratuitously fabricating (muddled) rationales ? Putintrolls ? Useful idiots ? MSM headline swallowers ? Echo-chamber junkies ?

Farage is kind of exemplary. Whatever you think of Brexit, why would you be OK praising Putin ? Whatever you think of Brexit, why would you be OK fraternising with the far right/white supremacists ? Whatever you think of Brexit why would you be OK with dog-whistle politics of quite an unpleasant variety ?

Why do these manias keep cropping up over and over again being ‘muddled’ with Brexit by Brexit leaders, fanboys and fellow travellers ?

 

 

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

The same old bunch of strawmen there,  and you have the gall to talk about not engaging. I keep repeating the point because you're failing to grasp the basics, and instead start wittering on about all sorts of other things.

Now now guys, play nice Can't we all just agree to disagree? After all, nobody actually knows what the future will bring, and we have very little influence. I'm all for discussion, but this thread seems to get too personal too often.

[kzb]

 

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Where does this obsession with fishing (catching) and the fantasy that the "collapse" of the industry is down to the EU come from.

The fishing industry hasn't shrunk at all, in terms of its capacity to catch all the fish it is safe to, so what they are really arguing against is the technology that enables one fisherman to be 20 times more productive than they were before we joined  the EU.  Does anyone really think this will change after we leave the EU.

For anyone interested in a bit of perspective the link below is interesting.

http://www.seafish.org/media/Publications/2006_I-O_Key_Features_Final_090108.pdf

See Chart 1 on page 4 and Table 1 on page 5:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02788/SN02788.pdf

Here you will see the gradual decline in weight of seafood landed in UK since we joined the EEC.  There was a plateau from the end of the war until the mid-1970's, and from then an inexorable decline. 

We landed less than half the weight in 2015 than in 1970.

[HairyOb1]

13 hours ago, knock out johnny said:

So not the patriot you purport. 

Just some cut-throat pirate. 

But we all knew this anyway so don't worry about it. 

Oh god, you don't actually believe any of that do you?  The bloke can barely put a spittle less post together, let alone be bright enough to hedge on FX.

I'd be surprised if he could brush his teeth in the morning without supervision personally.

[Itssimple]

38 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Where does this obsession with fishing (catching) and the fantasy that the "collapse" of the industry is down to the EU come from.

The fishing industry hasn't shrunk at all, in terms of its capacity to catch all the fish it is safe to, so what they are really arguing against is the technology that enables one fisherman to be 20 times more productive than they were before we joined  the EU.  Does anyone really think this will change after we leave the EU.

For anyone interested in a bit of perspective the link below is interesting.

http://www.seafish.org/media/Publications/2006_I-O_Key_Features_Final_090108.pdf

Just had a quick glance at the above pdf.

I actually fail to see the point in the above report, as I read it, comparing the value of the industry to GDP, and what little effect it would have if it disappeared is rather meaningless.

The fish wars and eu are the main culprits for the decline. I've berthed in Grimsby very close to the old ice houses, and visited the local museum. The area certainly lost out a lot.

As a realist it is obvious it will not likely regain it's former glory, but it could be better, the main problem in my view is the London centric attitude to areas/industry outside their circle. 

And the press article further above regarding Grimsby/brexit  is a case in point. 

Ta c

[Futuroid]

1 hour ago, dryrot said:

Just leave this here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/15/number-european-union-workers-britain-rises

"The number of people from other European Union countries working in Britain rose by 112,000 in the past year, according to the first full set of official figures published since the EU referendum."

So much for hate-filled-brexit-britain...!

Thanks you've just disproved @spyguy's nonsense from yesterday 

On 15/11/2017 at 12:53 PM, spyguy said:

UK hourly productivity grows at fastest rate since 2011

https://www.ft.com/content/81dc83be-c9e8-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

Strange that. All these Europeans going home. Leaving all the stupid, unproductive Brits.

Surely youd expect UK productivity to crash ..... unless of course we've imported 6-8m low to no skilled people......

[spyguy]

9 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Thanks you've just disproved @spyguy's nonsense from yesterday 

Whatever those stats are saying, its hardly a good thing for the UK, or people who argue that the UK is being enriched by buses full of unskilled EErs.

 

[Futuroid]

24 minutes ago, kzb said:

 

See Chart 1 on page 4 and Table 1 on page 5:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02788/SN02788.pdf

Here you will see the gradual decline in weight of seafood landed in UK since we joined the EEC.  There was a plateau from the end of the war until the mid-1970's, and from then an inexorable decline. 

We landed less than half the weight in 2015 than in 1970.

The cause of the decline in the UK fishing industry is a little more complex than "the EU did it, innit" 

Landings declined from 1947-1957 and then again from 1967 until now. The primary cause? Massive overfishing by fishermen (inc the UK) leading to the depletion of fish stocks, requiring careful management to avoid extinction.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/10/dont-blame-the-eu-for-the-decline-in-some-british-fishing-ports/

The number of fishing vessels are declining across the EU, and even outside it:

Much of the pro-leave press coverage has focussed on ports where the smaller fishermen with smaller vessels cannot compete with the bigger boys. They are understandably finding it hard to compete with their better equipped, larger UK and EU competitors, but rather than blaming the market and the realities of economies of scale and technology they want to flame the furreners.

"The irony of these claims is that the UK fishing industry is actually doing much better than the oft-accused EU member states. Profits in the UK industry continue to grow year after year and are the highest across the EU, as are profit margins. The level of investment in the industry, to buy new equipment, for example, is also growing and is the highest across the EU. Behind the headlines there’s actually a great deal of financial confidence in the industry from fishers."

"None of this denies the reality in North Shields. The port is mostly made up of small vessels, which unlike the large scale sector, is not seeing profits rise. The same situation exists in Appledore/Bideford, whose suffering featured in The Guardian, while the Belgian fleet supposedly thrives. But actually the Belgian fleet is unprofitable and shrinking."

Grimsby and many other UK ports are about to come face to face with project fear. And this time Nigel Farage and his Russian helpers will be nowhere to be seen!

P.S. Your report (from 2006?) shows that fishing is a mere 0.06% of UK GDP - well worth the sacrificing the manufacturing (10%) , finance (12%), etc sectors. 

[Futuroid]

9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Whatever those stats are saying, its hardly a good thing for the UK, or people who argue that the UK is being enriched by buses full of unskilled EErs.

 

It's the immigrants init! 

What happened to the joys of soaring productivity that you espoused only yesterday?

Oh, and...

http://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/farm-tourism-jobs-cornwall-brexit-716108

When asked why he can't recruit British people instead of relying on migrant workers to pick his cauliflowers and cabbages, Mr Simmons said there was a strong misconception about vegetable picking among the general public, with many people thinking it is paid less than the minimum wage.

He said: "There's money to be made veg picking right now. Our staff earn £12 to £14 an hour but many British people don't want to get up early to pick veg in a field in the rain and the cold. They view working in offices or supermarkets as a better job."

Reality is a bitch!

[jonb2]

15 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Whatever those stats are saying, its hardly a good thing for the UK, or people who argue that the UK is being enriched by buses full of unskilled EErs.

 

Spyguy, I've asked this of you before (see link below) as you obsessed with Tax Credits and Gordon Brown - according to you, total blame lies with these. You don't seem to think the neoliberal philosophy of our leaders, corporates and bankers have anything to do with it. Tax credits are just a prototype basic income which nobody admits to being a necessity soon.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/15/benefit-scroungers-billions-rich-paradise-papers-tax-avoidance

Someone has just paid $450 million dollars for a fecked up painting. Don't you think you should cast your mind more broadly?

[Confusion of VIs]

54 minutes ago, kzb said:

 

See Chart 1 on page 4 and Table 1 on page 5:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02788/SN02788.pdf

Here you will see the gradual decline in weight of seafood landed in UK since we joined the EEC.  There was a plateau from the end of the war until the mid-1970's, and from then an inexorable decline.

We landed less than half the weight in 2015 than in 1970.

I did say in terms of what it is safe to catch, in the good old days almost every country was overfishing to the extent that if they had carried on there would be no fish left.

Also a lot of fish used to be loaded here for processing and freezing before being exported, today much of this is done on a factory ship, cutting out the middleman.

Grimsby today is almost entirely a fish processing centre for imported fish. Owing to raw fish being a very perishable product, It is very exposed to any delays caused by regulations/customs checks. If these do occur even for a short period following Brexit the importers could be forced to switch to processing on ship or abroad before importation.

 

 

 

    

[Confusion of VIs]

50 minutes ago, Itssimple said:

Just had a quick glance at the above pdf.

I actually fail to see the point in the above report, as I read it, comparing the value of the industry to GDP, and what little effect it would have if it disappeared is rather meaningless.

The fish wars and eu are the main culprits for the decline. I've berthed in Grimsby very close to the old ice houses, and visited the local museum. The area certainly lost out a lot.

As a realist it is obvious it will not likely regain it's former glory, but it could be better, the main problem in my view is the London centric attitude to areas/industry outside their circle. 

And the press article further above regarding Grimsby/brexit  is a case in point. 

Ta c

Surely the GDP figure must make most people wonder why so much noise and emotion is generated by the fish issue.

Fishing as a mass employment industry has gone because of technological change not the EU, this is only going to continue as larger and more automated trawlers and factory ships are being built.   

The only thing that might help would be for the UK to value and start eating the fish we catch, rather than exporting most all of it to the EU.