Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Obfuscation coming up......

 

Or RAAAAACCCCCIIIIIIST!!!

[HairyOb1]

This is the impact on prices if we go full mental and choose a hard brexit, and with it, WTO rules:

 

[Tapori]

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

This is the impact on prices if we go full mental and choose a hard brexit, and with it, WTO rules:

 

Yeah, there's this thing called a trade deficit. Heard of it? Over ten billion net to us from WTO rules. 

 

Then there's this thing called "the world outside of the EU, it's quite big so I hear.

 

There's only brexit, not soft or hard, just in or out.

[jonb2]

17 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

I would take zero notice of John Redwood...he is a Brexit dullard...

Come on Dave - he's not that exciting!

[HairyOb1]

30 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yeah, there's this thing called a trade deficit. Heard of it? Over ten billion net to us from WTO rules. 

Then there's this thing called "the world outside of the EU, it's quite big so I hear.

There's only brexit, not soft or hard, just in or out.

Yes, a trade deficit is when you import or export more than you import or export.  Yes, that's right.  But let's look at that again shall we?

Our exports (to the EU) are worth 13% to our economy, the EU 3%, maybe 4% - See the issue there yet?

No? Ok, I'll continue.  According to the ONS, we exported £242bn to the EU in the last counting year.  However, we have a surplus in services which are a far bigger part of the economy...

Surplus.  See the issue yet?

No?  Ok, I'll go on a bit more.

44% of our exports, in goods and services go to the EU.

I am hoping you can see the bump in the road, no?





 

[casual_squash]

22 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Yes, a trade deficit is when you import or export more than you import or export.  Yes, that's right.  But let's look at that again shall we?

Our exports (to the EU) are worth 13% to our economy, the EU 3%, maybe 4% - See the issue there yet?

No? Ok, I'll continue.  According to the ONS, we exported £242bn to the EU in the last counting year.  However, we have a surplus in services which are a far bigger part of the economy...

Surplus.  See the issue yet?

No?  Ok, I'll go on a bit more.

44% of our exports, in goods and services go to the EU.

I am hoping you can see the bump in the road, no?





 

Well yes, the issue always was our economy was arranged/rigged unevenly to the single market when we first joined.

Fast forward today's climate and the clue alone explains why the brexit vote hardened the further North you went in England. 

You are preaching to the converted, yes a Brexit will cause an adjustment to the current economic arrangement but you continually refuse to acknowledge the people who were thrown overboard in this current setup and continually criticise them for voting for change. It's difficult to convince a disenfranchised electorate to prop up an economy they were never part of in the first place. 

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

5 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

Well yes, the issue always was our economy was arranged/rigged unevenly to the single market when we first joined.

Fast forward today's climate and the clue alone explains why the brexit vote hardened the further North you went in England. 

You are preaching to the converted, yes a Brexit will cause an adjustment to the current economic arrangement but you continually refuse to acknowledge the people who were thrown overboard in this current setup and continually criticise them for voting for change. It's difficult to convince a disenfranchised electorate to prop up an economy they were never part of in the first place. 

Yes

Edited October 17, 2017 by EmmaRoid

[HairyOb1]

5 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

Well yes, the issue always was our economy was arranged/rigged unevenly to the single market when we first joined.

Fast forward today's climate and the clue alone explains why the brexit vote hardened the further North you went in England. 

You are preaching to the converted, yes a Brexit will cause an adjustment to the current economic arrangement but you continually refuse to acknowledge the people who were thrown overboard in this current setup and continually criticise them for voting for change. It's difficult to convince a disenfranchised electorate to prop up an economy they were never part of in the first place. 

But they're voting change that will affect them the worst, that's the bit I cannot get my head around.  If, as predicted, we're going to be in strife for a long time, we're talking a generation, their kids maybe, in strife for a generation....

It's lunacy really. 

[casual_squash]

Just now, HairyOb1 said:

But they're voting change that will affect them the worst, that's the bit I cannot get my head around.  If, as predicted, we're going to be in strife for a long time, we're talking a generation, their kids maybe, in strife for a generation....

It's lunacy really. 

You'll find many Northerners regards 1975 as the vote that impacted them the worst, not so far a hypothetical situation we don;t yet have an outcome on.  

As it stands North England did far better better historically outside the EU than since it joined.

That's the cold simple truth that cannot be denied. 

The only winners in the current arrangement is by and large the South East and prior to Brexit there was zero prospects of that changing whatsoever.  

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

39 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Yes, a trade deficit is when you import or export more than you import or export.  Yes, that's right.  But let's look at that again shall we?

Our exports (to the EU) are worth 13% to our economy, the EU 3%, maybe 4% - See the issue there yet?

No? Ok, I'll continue.  According to the ONS, we exported £242bn to the EU in the last counting year.  However, we have a surplus in services which are a far bigger part of the economy...

Surplus.  See the issue yet?

No?  Ok, I'll go on a bit more.

44% of our exports, in goods and services go to the EU.

I am hoping you can see the bump in the road, no?





 

No, no, no and.....no.

 

Tell the boys and girls the direction of travel of our exports with the EU. DOWN.

 

Tell the boys and girls the direction of travel of the EU share of world trade. DOWN.

 

And that's not even getting into the Rotterdam effect which inflates the export figure by who knows what.

 

Being in a highly protectionist trade Bloc severely restricts your trade with other countries? Who'd have thought it!!!

 

By your rationale a prison canteen is highly successful as 100% of prisoners use it.

 

You fail to address the issue of us being better off net by more than 10 billion. I don't blame you, I'd avoid it as it punches such a big hole in your argument.

 

The EU is dying on its a#se. Your short sightedness would cost dearly.

 

There's a big world out there, don't be afraid of it.

[winkie]

England's green and pleasant land.....dig up the pasture, and start growing more food for people and less food for animals......we will need to start feeding ourselves if protectionism and new tariffs kick in.

 

 

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

No, no, no and.....no.

Tell the boys and girls the direction of travel of our exports with the EU. DOWN.

Tell the boys and girls the direction of travel of the EU share of world trade. DOWN.

And that's not even getting into the Rotterdam effect which inflates the export figure by who knows what.

Being in a highly protectionist trade Bloc severely restricts your trade with other countries? Who'd have thought it!!!

By your rationale a prison canteen is highly successful as 100% of prisoners use it.

You fail to address the issue of us being better off net by more than 10 billion. I don't blame you, I'd avoid it as it punches such a big hole in your argument.

The EU is dying on its a#se. Your short sightedness would cost dearly.

There's a big world out there, don't be afraid of it.

You think, somehow, we'll be better off by 10bn?  Genuinely?

You're going on about a big world out there, and quickly forgetting we're going to be a very small part of it and not that worthwhile to a lot of countries.  You say the EU is dying on its ****, but will not explain why growth is up in all of the countries, with Spain faring better than us, as well as countless others.  We've seemingly 'lost' half a trillion and are now at the bottom of the G8 in terms of growth and prosperity.  For the record, this was 5th in 2015, 2016 leading up to the vote.

44% of our exports go to the EU, most of which are services.  We have a massive surplus in our services, yet you're sweeping that under the carpet.  You somehow thing that prices rising by around 5% will not affect our economy by much?  Even if we will be better off by £10bn (we'll not, that's a crazy thought), do you not think the erosion of our GDP by am alarming amount wouldn't throw that figure up as loose change?

Your argument isn't as much full of holes, more not much actually there.

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, winkie said:

England's green and pleasant land.....dig up the pasture, and start growing more food for people and less food for animals......we will need to start feeding ourselves if protectionism and new tariffs kick in.

I know, this one tickled me.  Farmers Union quickly came out and debunked it, saying our climate precludes growing an awful lot of our own food.  I guess with the bonfire of the regulations, we can start genetically modifying our food, chucking heaps of steroids into the animals, etc, etc.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

20 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

But they're voting change that will affect them the worst, that's the bit I cannot get my head around.  If, as predicted, we're going to be in strife for a long time, we're talking a generation, their kids maybe, in strife for a generation....

It's lunacy really. 

No the lunacy is selling the dream of death by a thousand cuts because that is claimed to be the least worst option by the very people bringing you death by a thousand cuts.

(and in this instance it’s not even the EU as such but the British political establishment)

[HairyOb1]

Just now, EmmaRoid said:

No the lunacy is selling the dream of death by a thousand cuts because that is claimed to be the least worst option by the very people bringing you death by a thousand cuts.

(and in this instance it’s not even the EU as such but the British political establishment)

I'll not argue with the ideological lunacy of the conservatives, but I am less worried about them now that at any time in my life, as unless they can pull a political rabbit out of their ****, they're toast for a long time, hopefully for a generation and more.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

No deal Brexit would wipe £40bn off UK economy in 2019

A “no-deal” Brexit will wipe around £40bn off UK economic growth by 2019, according to the OECD. The UK economy will grow 1.5 per cent slower in 2019 if  the country crashes out of the EU without a trade deal or a transition deal with the bloc, than it would under its current arrangements with the EU.

In its latest round of forecasts, the OECD makes the assumption that trade talks will break down resulting in a hard Brexit. Under this scenario, imports and exports between the EU  and UK would face tariffs under World Trade Organisation terms. Independent

 

The 50 billion the EU is asking for everything start looking like peanuts.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

EU ministers slap down Theresa May's plea for early trade deal talks

EU ministers today slapped down Theresa May’s plea for early talks on a Brexit transition phase and a trade deal. Instead of softening their stance over trade talks, they said a draft statement being prepared for the 27 other EU leaders was being toughened up. “We try to go further but we are still on the same three issues,” said Belgian deputy prime minister Didier Reynders, adding that it was “too early” to move the talks on.

A leading German politician who is close to Angela Merkel blamed Cabinet splits — and Boris Johnson in particular — for preventing an agreement. “I know there are internal problems,” said Michael Fuchs. “Whatever she is offering, Boris Johnson is saying it’s too much.”

Asked if the Foreign Secretary had too much influence, he said: “It seems to be pretty strong, because otherwise she would come up with other proposals, I guess, and the problem is she has internal trouble in the Tories.” ES

 

It is still too early talking about cake.

[kzb]

17 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Now you really are being stupid.

Keeping it nice and simple for you: 20 jobs.  Only 10 people for 20 jobs.  10 people make hay.  10 positions do not get filled, so businesses without staff ask for business visas for migrants to come in as they can't be filled.  You get that yes?

Now for the UK salaries increasing: English folk are leaving too, in numbers.  Some EU people are staying.  Some are leaving.  Whoever is staying, be them from Outer Mongolia,  Dulwich,  Warsaw or Timbuktu; they're all benefitting.  If there are fewer qualified people than number of roles for them, those roles will pay a premium.  It works across all industries.  It matters not one jot about nationality.

That's before you look into declining productivity and lower GDP from not having enough qualified staff to perform work for you.

But it is a very simple equation - More jobs than people, more money for the job.  That's regardless of nationality.  Well, that's until the economy dives, then no one will have jobs.

The only bit of all that relevant to the point is the paragraph in bold.  However you agree 100% with what I and HY said in the underlined sentences.

The rest of it seems to be about difficulty recruiting suitably qualified and experienced people.  There simply are not enough no matter what pay you offer. 

I agree this is a difficulty, businesses need to respond with training and education processes.  One of the things needing a good sorting out are employment agencies and recruitment practices, the idea that you just plug someone in from an agency, as a widget, is one of the things going deeply wrong with society.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

18 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

It is still too early talking about cake.

No worries, hairy has promised us toast

[Riedquat]

42 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I know, this one tickled me.  Farmers Union quickly came out and debunked it, saying our climate precludes growing an awful lot of our own food.  I guess with the bonfire of the regulations, we can start genetically modifying our food, chucking heaps of steroids into the animals, etc, etc.

Gosh, how did we survive before we imported a lot of it, and with less efficient farming methods? Could this be part of why some of us don't want more people and see the stupidity of mass immigration?

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

16 minutes ago, kzb said:

The only bit of all that relevant to the point is the paragraph in bold.  However you agree 100% with what I and HY said in the underlined sentences.

The rest of it seems to be about difficulty recruiting suitably qualified and experienced people.  There simply are not enough no matter what pay you offer. 

I agree this is a difficulty, businesses need to respond with training and education processes.  One of the things needing a good sorting out are employment agencies and recruitment practices, the idea that you just plug someone in from an agency, as a widget, is one of the things going deeply wrong with society.

It’s why I posted the EE migration story. How do you unwind this FOM disaster? 

If people leave to go home, the host suffers. If they don’t go home, their country of origin suffers.

What then? The countries of origin get immigrants from somewhere else? Wtf?

Can’t we all just get along living in our own countries, allow freedom of movement to travel and work but have measures in place to prevent destructive migratory patterns?

[Futuroid]

2 hours ago, Tapori said:

Red is the colour of win.

[kzb]

7 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

It’s why I posted the EE migration story. How do you unwind this FOM disaster? 

If people leave to go home, the host suffers. If they don’t go home, their country of origin suffers.

What then? The countries of origin get immigrants from somewhere else? Wtf?

Can’t we all just get along living in our own countries, allow freedom of movement to travel and work but have measures in place to prevent destructive migratory patterns?

A mindset has developed in the management class.

Recruitment has been handed over to agencies.

These sources off-the-shelf persons from all over EU.

Unfortunately you run out of off-the-shelf employees eventually when the job entails experience and qualifications.

It all wants stamping out actually.

[HairyOb1]

36 minutes ago, kzb said:

The only bit of all that relevant to the point is the paragraph in bold.  However you agree 100% with what I and HY said in the underlined sentences.

The rest of it seems to be about difficulty recruiting suitably qualified and experienced people.  There simply are not enough no matter what pay you offer. 

I agree this is a difficulty, businesses need to respond with training and education processes.  One of the things needing a good sorting out are employment agencies and recruitment practices, the idea that you just plug someone in from an agency, as a widget, is one of the things going deeply wrong with society.

Well my point was that no matter where you are from, if you are in a market with less people than needed, you'll see rates rise.  Yours was that english folk were seeing their wages rise, which is disingenuous;  This isn't about brexit, it's basic economics.  I am finding a lot of young UK graduates are off all over the place.  I can't see that changing if companies are going into Uni's and offering work elsewhere, which is what is happening.  

Cyber crime is an area we're looking into expanding into, offering an apprenticeship too, but can't find many suitable folk.  If we start falling behind in that area too, well, you can imagine the consequences.  I remember the 'Brain Drain' of the 70's, and this will make that look laughable in comparison.

People choose to work in the IT industry and stand alone, as they are incredibly well remunerated; we're not talking the gig economy here, we're talking people with 5 years suitable IT experience earning £100k plus.  Move to London and it's £150k+.  It offers me, and other companies, massive advantages in that we employ the right person, for the right role, and when that role is complete, they look elsewhere, or I have other work for them.  They earn me money, I don't pay their obligations.  

Edited October 17, 2017 by HairyOb1