Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

17 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Greece's GDP growth now outpaces the UK 

But seriously, it is the outlier. Spain and most other countries are predicted to have done worse economically outside the EU.

http://voxeu.org/article/how-poorer-nations-benefit-eu-membership

As long as they’re not the same sort of EU predictions that proclaim Greece is fixed every 6 months

Edited October 16, 2017 by EmmaRoid

[HairyOb1]

7 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

 

It would be helpful if you could answer the questions without obfuscation.

1. I never said that your quote, ""I hate this country at times, and 51.9% of the folk that live here." was racist. It's simply bigoted.

2. Thanks for your thoughts on future UK immigration but can you explain what your statement means,

"Without wanting to sound bigoted, as I am not, I do believe, culturally, we have more in common with our EU cousins than we do with our asian ones.."

If it's any help, what do you mean by we, Asian, and more of what?

3. You avoided answering this question as well: 

"You have posted several times about your concerns regarding non-EU visa applicants e.g. Right to reside, bringing family over, undercutting wages, paying less tax...

Leaving aside the advantages of the visa system, how is this any different to the Leavers' concerns regarding FoM?"

 

1.  It isn't bigoted, it's anger at the stupidity of some people, who have made a call that is quickly unravelling, which affects people, and now they're beginning to see the folly of their actions, lots are back peddling.

2.  We being British, given the argument about immigration was about controlling immigration to the UK.  'We'.  Asian: People from Asia.

3.  I have never avoided the question at all, I believe in open borders, always have so FOM has, and never will be, an issue for me.  I have never once said I have concerns, for I don't, I have never said it would be wrong, as I don't believe that: I simply pointed out we will be swapping one type of immigration for another.  I am merely pointing out the folly, the stupidity of believing we'll stop immigration of one sorts, stopping where folk have 'right to reside, bringing family over, undercutting wages, paying less tax, having benefits', for another where folk have 'right to reside, bringing family over, undercutting wages, paying less tax, having benefits'.

I've spoken on many occasions about the utopia of a world without borders, as it's my belief that most of the wars in the world have been over borders and religion.  I see the EU as a stepping stone to far wider integration.

You're really going to have to try far harder.  

If you want to bring up my comment regarding 'professional culture', I am more than happy to discuss that.  I work with multiple international companies, from all over the world, and feel I am in a very good place to be able to describe the differences in professional working cultures.  Asians have different practices than Europeans.  In Asia, there is the professional concept, and private, of 'Face' which affects business at every level, from Junior through to Board level.  We don't have that here.It massively affects business when working with these international partners.

You're trying to paint me as a bigoted racist, you've actually used both terms, and I am far from either.  I dislike a lot of my brethren for what they've done to a country I love. What they've done to their own families and I hope the chickens come home to roost for them.  I make no secret of that.  As I said, sometimes when you've made a bed, you have to sleep in it too.

 

[HairyOb1]

6 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Not tosh and apparently the UK has the largest Roma population in Europe and they were encouraged to cross Europe by more than just UK benefits. 

It is tosh, Italy and Spain have massive Romanian presence, mainly as it is easier for them to speak the language.  You talk anecdotally, well we all can, I've just lost a very good Romanian Developer to Mons and a NATO contract.  Lots of leaving the UK to move to Europe.

Developer rates are higher in Northern Europe (Norway, Denmark, Germany) and lower in Southern States, like Spain, Port, Italy and France and about similar in middle countries (Belgium, Holland and very northern France).  I am now having to compete with Frankfurt too, as they are advertising for a lot of roles out there, so any back end developer and dev ops I come into contact with, will now be using offers there to secure better rates here.  Lots of European IT workers are moving to mainland Europe.

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

Greece's GDP growth now outpaces the UK 

But seriously, it is the outlier. Spain and most other countries are predicted to have done worse economically outside the EU.

http://voxeu.org/article/how-poorer-nations-benefit-eu-membership

Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal were almost banana republics in the 70's and 80's and have developed massively due to the EU.  I can't see any parallel universe in which they'd have done better outside of it.

[dryrot]

54 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal were almost banana republics in the 70's and 80's and have developed massively due to the EU.  I can't see any parallel universe in which they'd have done better outside of it.

And of course these countries benefited enormously from billions in structural funds, mostly from the UK (and Germany, of course). I just think its time we stopped paying for it.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, dryrot said:

And of course these countries benefited enormously from billions in structural funds, mostly from the UK (and Germany, of course). I just think its time we stopped paying for it.

Well, some people agreed with it, me included, in that there's a level of equivalence, and also social responsibility, if you believe in a United Europe.  I'm happy to continue paying.

[kzb]

14 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

 

Is this before or after, as a result of joining, that our economy collapsed, due to joining?  

 

I've said my piece on that many times.  The point was to illustrate how Left-Right perceptions have changed since 1975.

It was the Left and the unions which opposed membership. 

The Conservative party position was Remain.  The SNP position was Leave.

The TUC (Trade Union Congress) opposed Remaining on current terms and conditions.

[HairyOb1]

8 minutes ago, kzb said:

I've said my piece on that many times.  The point was to illustrate how Left-Right perceptions have changed since 1975.

It was the Left and the unions which opposed membership. 

The Conservative party position was Remain.  The SNP position was Leave.

The TUC (Trade Union Congress) opposed Remaining on current terms and conditions.

Revisionism: it wasn't, it was that the whole country went to the dogs once we joined the EEC.

I can actually quote you if you like?

But happy to move on.

[Tapori]

13 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I am surprised the EU can't even sort out the Irish hurdle.

What's the solution to the Irish border question?

[onlooker]

39 minutes ago, Tapori said:

What's the solution to the Irish border question?

In terms of goods, the problem lies with the EU wanting to protect their single market against cheap imports. So they can can build customs posts if they want - it is their problem.

In terms of people, we don't want uncontrolled entry from the EU, so some monitoring of who crosses the border, and more importantly who travels across the Irish Sea will be needed. Not insurmountable, especially as the Republic of Ireland is not in Schengen, and if we ask more questions before handing out NI numbers.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

Revisionism: it wasn't, it was that the whole country went to the dogs once we joined the EEC.

I can actually quote you if you like?

But happy to move on.

The point of the post in question was not this at all.  You are going back to an earlier point.

That earlier point was that the country started going to the dogs immediately after we joined the EEC.  In fact there is little argument this is actually true.  It's there in the data.

What there is a question about is whether the timing of the rot setting in and our joining the EEC was coincidental.  I agree that is debatable because it is a multifactorial issue.

However I did provide the 1975 NO leaflet which showed how butter and cheese increased in price very sharply, exactly how I remembered it. 

Food prices increased by 40% between 1971 and 1974 in UK and Ireland (both joined EEC) compared to 20% for Sweden and Norway (not then in EEC).  A part of the high 1970s inflation was indeed caused by joining EEC.

http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/1975ReferendumNO.pdf

 

 

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

The point of the post in question was not this at all.  You are going back to an earlier point.

That earlier point was that the country started going to the dogs immediately after we joined the EEC.  In fact there is little argument this is actually true.  It's there in the data.

What there is a question about is whether the timing of the rot setting in and our joining the EEC was coincidental.  I agree that is debatable because it is a multifactorial issue.

However I did provide the 1975 NO leaflet which showed how butter and cheese increased in price very sharply, exactly how I remembered it. 

Food prices increased by 40% between 1971 and 1974 in UK and Ireland (both joined EEC) compared to 20% for Sweden and Norway (not then in EEC).  A part of the high 1970s inflation was indeed caused by joining EEC.

http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/1975ReferendumNO.pdf

No, that WAS the point of the question.  We were well on the way to the dogs before we joined.  That we joined was a coincidence given the timings, but we were well on the way to being a basket case before we joined.  That much IS demonstrable.  You're still peddling a deeply flawed and demonstrably incorrect narrative.  In every book you will read about the economics of the 70's, none that I know of would put our position, in which we, at first, went cap in hand to the States, then to IMF, who had to include Germany to help us out, as we needed more money than the IMF could actually loan us- You're trying to position us as having gone from being one of the strongest economies in the world at the time, to a basket case in 2 years, after joining the EEC.  I can't take you at all seriously if you believe this, I simply can't.

May I ask how old you are?  For if you remember something vividly that happened in 1975, I am guessing you're a 60's child, which you haven't inferred before.

Butter and cheese, including cheddar, will be going up with brexit, ironically.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

4 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Greece's GDP growth now outpaces the UK 

But seriously, it is the outlier. Spain and most other countries are predicted to have done worse economically outside the EU.

http://voxeu.org/article/how-poorer-nations-benefit-eu-membership

At what point did happy clappy single market become Bundesbank ideological boot camp?

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/03/

And for shits and giggles 

https://www.ft.com/content/70813826-0c64-33d3-8a0c-72059ae1b5e3

what price, mass emigration?

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Well, some people agreed with it, me included, in that there's a level of equivalence, and also social responsibility, if you believe in a United Europe.  I'm happy to continue paying.

Scary. ‘United Europe’. When I consider the residual tensions after several centuries of United Kingdom, I’m not sure a United Europe is such a good idea.

 

anyway, keep posting how you can no longer get cheap labour from Europe. You must be garnering a lot of sympathy.

[HairyOb1]

Just now, EmmaRoid said:

Scary. ‘United Europe’. When I consider the residual tensions after several centuries of United Kingdom, I’m not sure a United Europe is such a good idea.

anyway, keep posting how you can no longer get cheap labour from Europe. You must be garnering a lot of sympathy.

When did I say it was cheap?  Cheap makes me less money, not more, as I earn percentages.  

Do you actually think I want, require or need sympathy?  There are some strange folk on this board...

[Confusion of VIs]

12 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

1. Not true:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/britons-don-t-believe-brexit-risks-peace-poll-shows-but-remain-pulls-ahead-a3251021.html

Quote

On the crucial question of the economy, people believe by almost two to one (49 per cent to 26 per cent) that Britain would be worse off for the first five years outside the EU.

But when asked how the UK would fare after 10 or 20 years, they think that on balance the country would be better off...

I wonder which forecast they base that belief on. Apart from Minford's mathematically defective one all the forecasts I have seen predict that even out to 2030 we will be significantly poorer.     

Could it be they are just expressing their hopes. 

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

4 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

When did I say it was cheap?  Cheap makes me less money, not more, as I earn percentages.  

Do you actually think I want, require or need sympathy?  There are some strange folk on this board...

Why all the sobs stories then?

[dryrot]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Well, some people agreed with it, me included, in that there's a level of equivalence, and also social responsibility, if you believe in a United Europe.  I'm happy to continue paying.

about 0.5trillion pounds so far I think. But your point is valid - if we are no longer an independent country with its own democracy, but are simply an outlying province of a continent ruled from Brussels, then whatever they tell us is fine. But I voted against that (as did many others). It also destroys the Remainer lie that Brexiteers are little englanders, afraid of a joint EU. We just don't want to be a ruled, tax-paying, province.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I wonder which forecast they base that belief on. Apart from Minford's mathematically defective one all the forecasts I have seen predict that even out to 2030 we will be significantly poorer.     

Could it be they are just expressing their hopes. 

Seeing that we’re already poorer than we were 10 years ago, is that a surprise?

[Confusion of VIs]

13 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

And for shits and giggles 

https://www.ft.com/content/70813826-0c64-33d3-8a0c-72059ae1b5e3

what price, mass emigration?

According to the article migration actually slowed after the EE states gained FoM.

Quote

The contraction began after the fall of the Soviet bloc and accelerated until the early 2000s when it began to slow down.

 

[Futuroid]

Just now, Confusion of VIs said:

According to the article migration actually slowed after the EE states gained FoM.

 

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story EmmaRoid rant.

[HairyOb1]

5 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

Why all the sobs stories then?

I'm looking at my posts and see no sob stories, simple facts.  People are leaving the UK at a fast rate.  I find it intuitive that you seemingly think as they're not from here, they're cheap.  Interesting.

[pig]

13 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

I think it was John Redwood, not Jeremy Hunt.

Thats actually quite funny - I now have to throw away a complete character assassination going on in the back of my mind based on 'thats typical of the smarmy twonk' -  and start all over again.

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

Seeing that we’re already poorer than we were 10 years ago, is that a surprise?

Speak for yourself....

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

According to the article migration actually slowed after the EE states gained FoM.

 

So? 

[kzb]

17 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

We were well on the way to the dogs before we joined.  That we joined was a coincidence given the timings, but we were well on the way to being a basket case before we joined.  That much IS demonstrable

Show us the charts.

Yes Europe caught up with us, but that was expected because they were starting from a lower base after the war.

If you took your A' levels in 1981aged 17-18 I suspect I am a little older than you, but not by much.

You still keep putting in a load of basket case symptoms that happened AFTER we joined.  I guess you are arguing the seeds of these problems pre-date 1973.  I honestly don't think you can ascribe all those problems to one bad budget.

Yes it is difficult to see how we went from a strong economy with full employment to a so-called basket case in such a short time.  The oil shocks affected the whole world so I don't see why we fared so badly compared to everyone else.