Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Futuroid]

Brexit is turning into a disaster, says Vote Leave chief

‘Theresa May and Mr Davis have provided a case study of grotesque uselessness’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/vote-leave-brexit-chief-dominic-cummings-disaster-eu-european-union-theresa-may-david-davis-a8002426.html

Can't believe this is "news" to anyone. Brexit is going down the way it was always going to go down - a shambolic mess that yields none of the things promised. Mind you at least he knows it's a clusterf**k - more than most leave voters!

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

7 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I'm looking at my posts and see no sob stories, simple facts.  People are leaving the UK at a fast rate.  I find it intuitive that you seemingly think as they're not from here, they're cheap.  Interesting.

You are paying your Romanian developer less than the market rate so he/she is leaving you. 

Now you must compete with Frankfurt.

It’s all about you, isn’t it?

need I go on?

[jonb2]

11 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Slightly o/t, have you been watching this series - Billion Dollar Deals...?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b096sjbs

I saw part of the last programme Sheeple. It's on my to-watch list actually - thanks for reminding me.

As you know from my posts here I think the US tech companies are now a world threat. The ever-increasing union between them and Wall Street and politics is the start of something very bad.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/wall-street-adapting-to-keep-up-with-tech-2015-8?op=1&r=US&IR=T

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/30/careers-bankers-leave-wall-street-for-technology-industry.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/outspending-wall-street-2-to-1-silicon-valley-takes-washington

Sovereignty is not a nation state thing anymore. These global corporations have money that makes them the equivalent of some countries. They can truly control the agenda.

It's one of the main reasons I worry about Brexit - I think the TPTB here will roll over and give them anything they want.

[HairyOb1]

Just now, kzb said:

Show us the charts.

Yes Europe caught up with us, but that was expected because they were starting from a lower base after the war.

If you took your A' levels in 1981aged 17-18 I suspect I am a little older than you, but not by much.

You still keep putting in a load of basket case symptoms that happened AFTER we joined.  I guess you are arguing the seeds of these problems pre-date 1973.  I honestly don't think you can ascribe all those problems to one bad budget.

Yes it is difficult to see how we went from a strong economy with full employment to a so-called basket case in such a short time.  The oil shocks affected the whole world so I don't see why we fared so badly compared to everyone else.

 

I did, I showed you lots of them.  You;ve chosen to ignore them.

No, I keep showing you the circumstances about why it happened, before we joined, that you're ignoring the facts I have shown, is the story here.  It wasn't one bad budget, it was a collection of items the set into progress a recession and debt issue well before we joined; we had a worse debt problem with the advent of cheap credit, relatively, than we did in 2008.  This was a rolling rock from about 1970 onwards.  Throw in oil going up 400% and well, it was the perfect storm.  Then we had strikes and wage demands of 25% and more, before we joined.  Before.  That we had a state of emergency starting on the day we joined should scream at you about the fundamental issues we were facing before we joined should really force you to look at what was happening.

We went to the US in 1974, initially, for loans, then back in 75, and when that wasn't enough, went to the IMF, who in turn asked Germany to chip in.

Literally, there are no economic papers, books, or articles that support your view. None.

[dryrot]

40 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

]Butter and cheese, including cheddar, will be going up with brexit, ironically.

??? Are you seriously suggesting world food prices higher than EU ones?

BTW:  latest from John Redwood : Farming for our future (my emph at end) http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/

"The Uk currently runs a massive £20bn trade deficit in food with the rest of the EU. In 1984 the UK was 78% self sufficient in food. It produced 95% of all the temperate food we needed at home. The early years under the EEC had been fine for farming. Then the EU put in milk quotas and other restrictions on us which began a long decline in our ability to sustain home production.  The Common Fishing Policy led a fast decline  in our fishing industry. We have seen home production  fall from 78% to 60% of our needs. We  now import more than a quarter of the food of the kind we can grow or produce for ourselves. This is despite having one of the best climates for growing what we need.

[...]

The UK is extending the growing season for everything from asparagus to strawberries by polytunnels. We presently only produce one fifth of our own apples, but have the techniques to greatly increase the output and the durability of the apples over a longer season. All this will be accelerated if the EU does opt for WTO tariffs rather than carry on tariff free as we propose. Only in agriculture are the tariff barriers potential high. They would require a rapid response from UK farms to fill the gaps caused by dearer EU product, rather than seeing us buying more from non EU sources overseas. Even without tariffs following the recent strong performance of the Euro against all major world currencies including the pound, UK farmers are in a good position to expand. Doing so cuts food miles, gives us the pleasure of local produce, and eats away at that colossal food deficit the EU has given us.

Edited October 16, 2017 by dryrot
deleted text add link

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

You are paying your Romanian developer less than the market rate so he/she is leaving you. 

Now you must compete with Frankfurt.

It’s all about you, isn’t it?

need I go on?

No, sorry, I didn't say that at all.  I said I am losing my Romanian developer to the EU as he no longer wishes to work here.  He earned top dollar with me, and will be earning top dollar with NATO.  He left due to Brexit, not wages.  Why would I pay him less, when I earn a percentage of his day rate?

I think you're also missing a point - WE, as a country, now have to compete with Frankfurt.  Not me.  Let me ask you a question: Do you think IT rates will go up, or down, if there are fewer people to fill roles? 

I am starting to think it's all about you, and whatever nonsense is running loose in that head.

No, please eel free not to, as you're a bit mental.

[knock out johnny]

4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I saw part of the last programme Sheeple. It's on my to-watch list actually - thanks for reminding me.

As you know from my posts here I think the US tech companies are now a world threat. The ever-increasing union between them and Wall Street and politics is the start of something very bad.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/wall-street-adapting-to-keep-up-with-tech-2015-8?op=1&r=US&IR=T

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/30/careers-bankers-leave-wall-street-for-technology-industry.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/outspending-wall-street-2-to-1-silicon-valley-takes-washington

Sovereignty is not a nation state thing anymore. These global corporations have money that makes them the equivalent of some countries. They can truly control the agenda.

It's one of the main reasons I worry about Brexit - I think the TPTB here will roll over and give them anything they want.

+1 -  nailed it

Nation states are being subsumed by the market-state

[Confusion of VIs]

15 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

Seeing that we’re already poorer than we were 10 years ago, is that a surprise?

The comparison was against staying in the EU.

Remember just 15 months ago we were the fastest growing G7 economy now we are the slowest. Quite an impressive feat in itself, doing it while at the same time as devaluing the currency by 15% shows a truly outstanding level of incompetence.    

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, dryrot said:

??? Are you seriously suggesting world food prices higher than EU ones?

BTW:  latest from John Redwood : Farming for our future (my emph at end)

The Uk currently runs a massive £20bn trade deficit in food with the rest of the EU. In 1984 the UK was 78% self sufficient in food. It produced 95% of all the temperate food we needed at home. The early years under the EEC had been fine for farming. Then the EU put in milk quotas and other restrictions on us which began a long decline in our ability to sustain home production.  The Common Fishing Policy led a fast decline  in our fishing industry. We have seen home production  fall from 78% to 60% of our needs. We  now import more than a quarter of the food of the kind we can grow or produce for ourselves. This is despite having one of the best climates for growing what we need.

Under the milk quota system which lasted 30 years from 1984 the UK only had half the milk quota of Germany, and ended up importing a lot of processed milk products from the continent. The Danish pig industry, the Dutch market gardening and flower businesses and many others made  big inroads into our home market. Our fishing grounds were taken over by the whole of the EU under the Common Fishing Policy. We changed from landing  1 million tonnes of fish in the year we joined the EEC, to landing just 400,000 tonnes last year. The UK became a net importer of fish, after years of being a  net exporter with one of the richest fishing grounds in the world. The large quantities landed elsewhere meant we needed to impose more restrictions on the total catch.

When we leave the EU we will be able to design a fishing and farming policy that allows us to sustain higher levels of home production. It will need further investment. The UK could do more food processing to add value to the staples supplied by the farms. Much of this can be done through co-operatives or processing businesses working in partnership with the farms. Where farm size is relatively small mechanisation will also require collaboration, joint investment or rental agreements to mobilise the high powered and sophisticated machinery that can  now automate farming and make it more efficient.

The UK is extending the growing season for everything from asparagus to strawberries by polytunnels. We presently only produce one fifth of our own apples, but have the techniques to greatly increase the output and the durability of the apples over a longer season. All this will be accelerated if the EU does opt for WTO tariffs rather than carry on tariff free as we propose. Only in agriculture are the tariff barriers potential high. They would require a rapid response from UK farms to fill the gaps caused by dearer EU product, rather than seeing us buying more from non EU sources overseas. Even without tariffs following the recent strong performance of the Euro against all major world currencies including the pound, UK farmers are in a good position to expand. Doing so cuts food miles, gives us the pleasure of local produce, and eats away at that colossal food deficit the EU has given us.

TLDR

As soon as I got to John Redwood and his sparkling Unicorns of the brexit hinterlands,  you lost me I am afraid.  

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The comparison was against staying in the EU.

Remember just 15 months ago we were the fastest growing G7 economy now we are the slowest. Quite an impressive feat in itself, doing it while at the same time as devaluing the currency by 15% shows a truly outstanding level of incompetence.    

Quite ironic that the one thing KZB is droning on about is actually happening in reverse, in that it's happening to us after deciding to leave the EU, not join.

I kind of find this disjoint funny.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The comparison was against staying in the EU.

Remember just 15 months ago we were the fastest growing G7 economy now we are the slowest. Quite an impressive feat in itself, doing it while at the same time as devaluing the currency by 15% shows a truly outstanding level of incompetence.    

All Brexit’s fault, nothing to do with the preceding 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years?

[dryrot]

3 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

TLDR

As soon as I got to John Redwood and his sparkling Unicorns of the brexit hinterlands,  you lost me I am afraid.  

Thanks for admitting you have lost the argument. 

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

5 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

No, sorry, I didn't say that at all.  I said I am losing my Romanian developer to the EU as he no longer wishes to work here.  He earned top dollar with me, and will be earning top dollar with NATO.  He left due to Brexit, not wages.  Why would I pay him less, when I earn a percentage of his day rate?

I think you're also missing a point - WE, as a country, now have to compete with Frankfurt.  Not me.  Let me ask you a question: Do you think IT rates will go up, or down, if there are fewer people to fill roles? 

I am starting to think it's all about you, and whatever nonsense is running loose in that head.

No, please eel free not to, as you're a bit mental.

We as a country are poorer - which you denied at the top of the page.

Left because of Brexit? Get over yourself, it’s ALWAYS about the money. Would stay, for more money if you can’t get that for him...

[HairyOb1]

23 minutes ago, dryrot said:

Thanks for admitting you have lost the argument. 

Oh, there was no argument there, there was some mythical prose from John redwood, a man who is shouting out loud on twitter that we should be more optimistic and patriotic about brexit and by inference, we aren't patriotic if we aren't, and that the press aren't either.  A man who has attacked journalists and newspapers alike for not promoting a soviet style propaganda akin to the shite you've just posted.

That and the fact what he's saying is physically impossible as reported by the Farmers Union.

But you carry on.

Edited October 16, 2017 by HairyOb1

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

26 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story EmmaRoid rant.

No rants, just pointing out when your saintly EU is not helping people.

[Futuroid]

Just now, EmmaRoid said:

No rants, just pointing out when your saintly EU is not helping people.

Where did I ever say the EU was "saintly"? 

It has problems (and I spell this out earlier in this very thread) - every system of governance does - but they are not beyond reform.

You need to spend more time reading and less time thinking up catchy usernames in tribute to your idols! 

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, EmmaRoid said:

We as a country are poorer - which you denied at the top of the page.

Left because of Brexit? Get over yourself, it’s ALWAYS about the money. Would stay, for more money if you can’t get that for him...

No I said speak for yourself, meaning I am not poorer than I was 10 years ago.  

He actually told me he was leaving due to brexit.  That's him, a Romanian, who has taken himself and his family to the mainland, because of brexit.  It's not always about the money (are you projecting perhaps?), I am earning far more now than at any time during the preceding 17 years, mostly due to brexit, as people are leaving the tech sector in droves, which has driven up rates. I refer to the people citing money they can get elsewhere as a driver for higher wages here, that being English developers too.    That has a knock on effect of driving rates up here, I referred the other day to stock developer rates at £500+ in Bristol which I have never seen.

Now, as I take a percentage of rates, how do you think Brexit is affecting my business?  Yet I still think it's a terrible idea.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

15 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Oh dear, nothing left in the kitty:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/15/britains-missing-billions-revised-figures-reveal-uk-490bn-poorer/

UK £0.5 Trn poorer than thought.

Looks like Brexit means Venezuela for the UK!

Quote

The stats also show a sharp decline in the amount of investment by overseas firms.

Money coming in to the UK from foreign businesses and individuals fell from a £120billion surplus in the first half of 2016 to a £25billion deficit during the same period this year, according to new stats. 

Hammond is not having much luck in the run up to the budget, 

Wasn't so long ago that the Leavers were crowing about foreign investment holding up perfectly well post the vote. Of course these were just the ramblings of idiots who didn't realise there is a lead time to cancelling investment decisions, but even so this is a truly horrendous turnaround.   

[rollover]

1 hour ago, EmmaRoid said:

All Brexit’s fault, nothing to do with the preceding 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years?

let me disagree with you. Brexit hasn't happened yet. It's the uncertainty and the future expectations what kind of Brexit we are getting and when.

[HairyOb1]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hammond is not having much luck in the run up to the budget, 

Wasn't so long ago that the Leavers were crowing about foreign investment holding up perfectly well post the vote. Of course these were just the ramblings of idiots who didn't realise there is a lead time to cancelling investment decisions, but even so this is a truly horrendous turnaround.   

You're not being very optimistic or patriotic CoVi.  You know that's all we need to do to make this brexit a success, etc, etc, etc...

[rollover]

Who will get a piece of cake?

 

Quote

 

Who's who on the Brexit dinner party guest list

Theresa May and David Davis will be hoping the UK will be cut some slack when they meet key players on Monday.

Guardian

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, EmmaRoid said:

So? 

So perhaps FoM is not the driver its claimed to be.People were obviously finding ways of emigrating before its introduction, and presumably will after its withdrawal.

NB About 40% of the EE residency applications made during the first two years after accession were from people who were already living and working in the UK.  

[Sheeple Splinter]

16 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

They could have done if the UK remained in the single market...The problem is that goods from third countries could leak into the SM....

Nothing to stop the EU being creative considering the Island's geographical position, history and the GFA.

That said, I'm a Flexcit fan 

[Sheeple Splinter]

5 hours ago, Tapori said:

What's the solution to the Irish border question?

Jean-Claude, c'est toi?

[Tapori]

2 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Jean-Claude, c'est toi?

No I'm the guy who looks like Jurgen Klopp's brother. Guy whats-his-name