TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, goz said: Hello, I have been a reader of this board for a couple of months. In my area (Oval/Vauxhall) estate agents are becoming increasingly despondent. I live pretty much right next to that ludicrously expensive flat someone showed on here for £550k (2 bed on Richmond Terrace, Oval), it has been on the market for over a year and will get no takers. I am on Winkworths list of people to call if anything of interesting comes up (nothing ever does). They just called “we have a 2 bedroom flat being sold at a very reasonable price located in Elephant and Castle. The flat is being sold by a private developer who is pricing them way below the rip off prices of other flats being sold in Elephant and Castle" I asked how much and how large and he tells me the flat is 530sqft and on the market for 495K! Sound of resignation in his voice was tangible……. They must all be praying for a crash to kick start the market again. My observation has been that prices stopped going up about 1 year ago but vendors just kept on increasing the asking prices in line with growth that they had seen over the last 6 years. There is now a giant gap between what a sensible person is prepared to pay and what the greedy piggy vendors want. The vendors cannot win this one in my opinion and the greed that put prices up so fast will result in them going down just as fast. Love the post, but it's all anecdotal. We all love a few facts and figures on here. There's 0 point in looking for a place to live now, the prices are insane, the risks massive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Here are some figures: price reduced by 43% in one go and still massively overpriced. Hey - Check out this property I found via the Zoopla App -http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/43370024 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 This one below is interesting as well. A portfolio of six flats for sale for £3.8M. Price already reduced by 60%. Someone is shitting it: Hey - Check out this property I found via the Zoopla App -http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39878017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayder Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 (edited) a development down the road from me in muswell hill about to complete. http://www.pinnacle-n10.com/ they're selling 3 bed flats (admittedly they are 120m2 which is rather large by london rabbit hutch standards) for £1.3M!! We're talking about an area in zone 3 without underground. the local EAs are despondent. Clearly nothing's selling here, passers by laugh out loud at the prices. Even the greedy local nimby older people are now in a laughing mood when seeing the prices. the developer is hilariously trying to bung in a renault zoe and an IPAD for anyone signing up to pay £1,300,000 for an apartment worth maybe £250k. Because, of course if I was bunging £1.3M on a suburban flat I'd want and need a freaking renault zoe and ipad! Either the pound collapses further, with no interest rate rises (and allowing foreign "investors" to hoover up properties cheaply) or interest rates are put up and the nominal prices collapse.... or we could return to this thread in 2021 and find its gone even more mental. Edited April 26, 2017 by hayder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, hayder said: a development down the road from me in muswell hill about to complete. http://www.pinnacle-n10.com/ they're selling 3 bed flats (admittedly they are 120m2 which is rather large by london rabbit hutch standards) for £1.3M!! We're talking about an area in zone 3 without underground. the local EAs are despondent. Clearly nothing's selling here, passers by laugh out loud at the prices. Even the greedy local nimby older people are now in a laughing mood when seeing the prices. the developer is hilariously trying to bung in a renault zoe and an IPAD for anyone signing up to pay £1,300,000 for an apartment worth maybe £250k. Because, of course if I was bunging £1.3M on a suburban flat I'd want and need a freaking renault zoe and ipad! Either the pound collapses further, with no interest rate rises (and allowing foreign "investors" to hoover up properties cheaply) or interest rates are put up and the nominal prices collapse.... or we could return to this thread in 2021 and find its gone even more mental. Crazy prices all round. I know someone who's balls deep in a development in Islington area. Was talking about making a fortune 6 months ago. I didnt have the heart to say anything to him. Him and his missus have sunk everything into this sure thing, some business associated talked him into it. Myabe they'll get out in time, I'll find out at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrippie Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Chrippie said: Think the title of this thread should be changed - there is no need to frame it as a question: Prime London is Crashing. It's happening, without a shadow of a doubt. In my search area (W8 +2 miles), I am seeing asking price reductions of 25%+ now. Its full on panic from the developers imo. For instance this one, obviously still a bonkers price for a 3 bed flat just off King Street in Hammersmith (anyone that's been there will know; Bond Street it ain't), but that's a 27.5% cut in one hit. http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4070065043 Just to add, its stating the obvious but lets assume the current owner/flipper bought that flat at the previous asking price (£2m) as an investment in the last year and paid their 3% surcharge. If they financed it at 60% LTV or above all of their equity is wiped out, even if they get the current asking price, once you take stamp duty (£213k), and selling costs into account (assume £35-40k, based on agents fees of 2% + VAT). £800k gone. Retail property "investors" in London with a portfolio financed at 60-70% LTV are about to find out how much £1.2m of debt really is, and what lengths the banks will go to to recover it. Say goodbye to your primary residence, on one bad investment. As the saying goes if you owe the bank a million you have a big problem. If you owe them a billion they have a big problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Chrippie said: Just to add, its stating the obvious but lets assume the current owner/flipper bought that flat at the previous asking price (£2m) as an investment in the last year and paid their 3% surcharge. If they financed it at 60% LTV or above all of their equity is wiped out, even if they get the current asking price, once you take stamp duty (£213k), and selling costs into account (assume £35-40k, based on agents fees of 2% + VAT). £800k gone. Retail property "investors" in London with a portfolio financed at 60-70% LTV are about to find out how much £1.2m of debt really is, and what lengths the banks will go to to recover it. Say goodbye to your primary residence, on one bad investment. As the saying goes if you owe the bank a million you have a big problem. If you owe them a billion they have a big problem. Chrippie, you're my new best HPC friend. I like the cut of your jib. I thought you were called Chirpie initially, much better name Edited April 26, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Quick question, anyone has done a modelisation on house valuation provided rent can't increase, for a 5% yield, IR remains at current rate and S24 in full effect? I guess I may be able to do it on excel tonight if I come back early enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 31 minutes ago, hayder said: a development down the road from me in muswell hill about to complete. http://www.pinnacle-n10.com/ Quote Reserve a unit during our special event between 4-6 May and you will receive the following: Free iPad when you put down a deposit on any property Stamp duty paid on all units (standard rate) Free Renault Zoe electric car for all houses Free ceiling speaker and Sonos upgrade to all units Did not know about those practices, but quite interesting and telling how much margin they must have been expecting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hayder Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 I half expect most of the people on the open day to be Singaporeans. Sadly I'll be away. would have loved to swill some free champagne and canapes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonlymouse Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Move to Nine Elms Point this summer with a 5% contribution towards your deposit Barratt so desperate to avoid a headline discount in Battersea they're now doing 'deposit contributions' instead. Must have run out of Far East investors to flog to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, anonlymouse said: Move to Nine Elms Point this summer with a 5% contribution towards your deposit Barratt so desperate to avoid a headline discount in Battersea they're now doing 'deposit contributions' instead. Must have run out of Far East investors to flog to. From Barratts' latest results announcement back in Feb: Completions in London were lower at 367 (2015: 842) in line with the Group’s planned build programme. The Group expects a significant increase in completions on wholly owned sites in London in the second half. In London, for homes with higher selling price points, we have supplemented our private sales with other sales agreements: a build and sale agreement on a bespoke development of 39 apartments for a total value of £47m, completion of a 54 apartment sale at our JV sites in Fulham and Aldgate and in January we exchanged on a build and sale agreement for 118 apartments at our Nine Elms JV site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrippie Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Chrippie, you're my new best HPC friend. I like the cut of your jib. I thought you were called Chirpie initially, much better name Hehe thanks! High praise indeed. I'm loving watching this play out. Peak was 18 months to 2 years ago imo and it was stalling for a long time before that. Its not just stamp duty/Brexit wot dunnit. It was a bubble looking for a pin for a while. And still so many in denial. London property reminds me of the dot com crash (I was involved on the finance side), in that it will be talked about as one of the historic crashes in the future. When the SHTF it takes people a long long time to realise those old prices are gone and aren't coming back. By the time they do that flat will be down at least 75% imo. Even then at 80% LTV a FTB will need to find £15k stamp duty and £100k equity plus a service charge & ground rent which is about £5000 per year to live in a flat just off King Street in Hammersmith. Which is a dump. You won't be able to give them away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 On the topic of house builds not selling I will leave that brilliant graph from Savills that was released earlier this month. Where plunging sales make an almost magical 90 degrees angle and remain at slow growth after Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 3 hours ago, Freki said: On the topic of house builds not selling I will leave that brilliant graph from Savills that was released earlier this month. Where plunging sales make an almost magical 90 degrees angle and remain at slow growth after So 118 were right. Without them property will not get bought up and building may stumble for a while. Where they were wrong is what that means for people who currently can't afford or choose not to buy. Happy days. The only way is down ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MARTINX9 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 5 hours ago, anonlymouse said: Move to Nine Elms Point this summer with a 5% contribution towards your deposit Barratt so desperate to avoid a headline discount in Battersea they're now doing 'deposit contributions' instead. Must have run out of Far East investors to flog to. Given the cheapest flat available for this offer is a mere £880,000 I may have to save up a bit longer. They could of course just cut the price by £44k! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE10 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 7 hours ago, suntory said: This one below is interesting as well. A portfolio of six flats for sale for £3.8M. Price already reduced by 60%. Someone is shitting it: Hey - Check out this property I found via the Zoopla App -http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39878017 Sadly no, I made the same mistake. According to property bee at the higher price it was 11 flats. See other thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 A London estate agency’s analysis of the latest Land Registry data suggests transactions in the capital are the lowest ever recorded. Land Registry data for February shows there were just 55 transactions in the whole of the Westminster borough, which the Portico agency claims is the lowest ever number recorded by the registry’s open data - it’s 60 per cent lower even than in February 2009 immediately after the banking crisis broke. https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/4/agency-says-some-london-boroughs-seeing-record-low-transactions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 AvoidDebt, thanks for that great link. It confirms what we have been seeing for a while now: the absolute collapse in volume. I had to rub my eyes last night as I checked houseprices.io for a different matter and was stunned to see that in February in SW8 a total of 8 (yes you are reading correctly) properties were listed as sold. Granted that figure will likely go up by a little, perhaps to 10 or 12 which is still a ludicrously low figure. As we have been saying on here for a long time, collapse in volume will precede collapse in prices. With every new data coming in, the collapse in volume is confirmed. Incidentally, that other gigantic property bubble, namely in Toronto, is now running into severe difficulties. Home Capital Group, the largest shadow banking mortgage lender, is on the verge of collapse with the stock price in free fall. It was thrown a lifeline with $2 Billion of liquidity at 22% interest rate and a $100 Million upfront fee. 22% interest rate to such a major company suggests that they are essentially insolvent. Problem is though that if they do go bust, other Canadian lenders would probably go bust as well. Rumours are that major banks are trying to prop up Home Capital to contain a spillover. Either way, the Toronto bubble is going to implode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Check in at 9:30am Toronto time to see whether Home Capital is going to take another beating on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 1 hour ago, suntory said: . Incidentally, that other gigantic property bubble, namely in Toronto, is now running into severe difficulties. Home Capital Group, the largest shadow banking mortgage lender, is on the verge of collapse with the stock price in free fall. It was thrown a lifeline with $2 Billion of liquidity at 22% interest rate and a $100 Million upfront fee. 22% interest rate to such a major company suggests that they are essentially insolvent. Problem is though that if they do go bust, other Canadian lenders would probably go bust as well. Rumours are that major banks are trying to prop up Home Capital to contain a spillover. Either way, the Toronto bubble is going to implode. Clearly we need help to buy 'extreme' edition to make sure tarquin with his million quid desres in clapham doesn't get affected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Si1 said: Clearly we need help to buy 'extreme' edition to make sure tarquin with his million quid desres in clapham doesn't get affected. Is HTB London still running? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 14 minutes ago, rantnrave said: Is HTB London still running? Think so. Any one know different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, rantnrave said: Is HTB London still running? Yes, it's still going Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B63 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Shaun Richards on the property market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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