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Patient London FTB

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  1. Can’t see this underpinning rents, but what has been doing so is the slowdown in sales of newbuilds to landlords. Unless they’re bought by owner occupiers then they stay empty and don’t hit the rental market. But recent signs are that big overseas investors are buying flats in bulk off anxious London developers, so expect rents to fall again this year.
  2. No big deal if you have a stake in the entire portfolio, but it doesn't work like that. Investors buy stakes in the individual properties, so there will be a few unlucky ones who picked some of the dogs.
  3. View from a London-watcher is that 5-15% drops in rents would be the most you could realistically hope for over the next two years, but the important thing is not how that changes your rent/buy calculations but how it changes the hold/sell calculations made by the landlords and their lenders. The landlord mindset is going to completely change as it becomes clearer that the immediate future means choosing between between eating voids and dropping rents, while their tax payments rise and their capital values fall. Sit tight for a couple of years, wait til you see the whites of their eyes.
  4. They only count the houses that actually sell!
  5. Ditto in SE1. Stock of unsold one bed flats up 66% in a year.
  6. It's Rightmove, they do it for London and for Britain. London's been slowing for ages but the rest of the country has been speeding up. Areas near London could be slowing too due to the ripple, but you can't prove that with Rightmove data. RICS is worth a look in that it will show whether sales volume expecting to rise or fall in different regions though.
  7. So you plug your gadgets into the stairs, then break your neck tripping on the cords in the morning
  8. True that ARLA's adventures in stats are an absolute joke
  9. I'm no expert on charts, but after how strong its move up has been it looks like it could be topping
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