Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

[thisisthisitmaybe]

10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They know high house prices win an election...

The Blairites worked this out, but the game is up. 

With younger voters starting to become a powerful section of the electorate, political parties will start arguing that a correction is a good thing. 

If Corbyn said, I will force a house price crash (or just allow it to happen), he will pick up a lot of young votes.

 

[Si1]

17 hours ago, suntory said:

General Election on 8 June.

LR HPI report for April released on 13 June.

 

Hmmm. Me thinks that they could see the shit coming and called an early one. The writing is on the wall. And what's the betting that the 13 June will receive zero press coverage because everyone will be too busy looking at the new Cabinet. The election is an attempt to pre-empt the crash, but it's also an attempt to hide the results. Once the crash is in full swing they will blame it on Juncker.

I agree with this. I think they've avoided the mistake Gordon Brown made in 2006 when he failed to call a snap election before the credit crunch hit.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The Blairites worked this out, but the game is up. 

With younger voters starting to become a powerful section of the electorate, political parties will start arguing that a correction is a good thing. 

If Corbyn said, I will force a house price crash (or just allow it to happen), he will pick up a lot of young votes.

 

Looking at last nights local election results...i'd have to disagree.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The Blairites worked this out, but the game is up. 

With younger voters starting to become a powerful section of the electorate, political parties will start arguing that a correction is a good thing. 

If Corbyn said, I will force a house price crash (or just allow it to happen), he will pick up a lot of young votes loose 50% of his votes.

 

It was pure genius by the torys getting people to buy into their middle class world.

 

Everyone now things they are a tory.

 

Genius

[North London Rent Girl]

On 01/05/2017 at 8:39 PM, adarmo said:

I think the shard is ugly as sin, plus it disregards one of the fundamental laws of building economics. Your top floors are teh most valuable so why on God's green Earth would you build a lanky pyramid minimising that space? Thankfully it only offends me when I can't avoid having to trek into town. 

You are also an only occasional trek into towner?! I went in to see a film a couple of fridays ago, right into the west end on a friday night, haven't done that for ages, ick. Does anyone really actually like it? I am getting old but it's not just that, I didn't like it in my 20s, either, always wondered what was good about it.

[maverick73]

According to Bloomberg buyers have gone into hibernation  - Link

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

According to Bloomberg buyers have gone into hibernation  - Link

Sellers have gone into bankruptcy...

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

According to Bloomberg buyers have gone into hibernation  - Link

Dont they find that odd when spring is THE time to buy ( read as sell ) a house  ?

[dugsbody]

42 minutes ago, North London Rent Girl said:

Does anyone really actually like it?

Yes. Millions of people. 

[anonlymouse]

42 minutes ago, North London Rent Girl said:

You are also an only occasional trek into towner?! I went in to see a film a couple of fridays ago, right into the west end on a friday night, haven't done that for ages, ick. Does anyone really actually like it? I am getting old but it's not just that, I didn't like it in my 20s, either, always wondered what was good about it.

I'm probably in the minority but love it, simply can't match the variety and convenience. I enjoy being in the thick of the action, being able to pop in to galleries and exhibitions at will rather than making a day of it, and the problem is not if there's anything to do but what to do. Spent the first 28 years of my life growing up in the sticks or living in regional cities and wouldn't swap my lifestyle back for either of them. Not to mention in my career 60-70% of jobs are based in London (not finance).

[Kent Ambitions]

Just now, anonlymouse said:

I'm probably in the minority but love it, simply can't match the variety and convenience. I enjoy being in the thick of the action, being able to pop in to galleries and exhibitions at will rather than making a day of it, and the problem is not if there's anything to do but what to do. Spent the first 28 years of my life growing up in the sticks or living in regional cities and wouldn't swap my lifestyle back for either of them. Not to mention in my career 60-70% of jobs are based in London (not finance).

Having lived in both London and smaller but still busy cities such as Oxford, I can tell you that nothing beats the convenience of living right in the middle of a smaller city, with everything in walking distance. You make so much more of the place.

London has a lot going on 'in total' but it's horrendously spread around, and travel is a pain, so unless you live in Covent Garden going to a restaurant, gallery, museum, theatre, or club is a real effort. Whereas living in the centre of a beautiful but still buzzing city like Oxford, you have everything at your fingertips and the quality of life is orders of magnitude better.

[anonlymouse]

7 minutes ago, Kent Ambitions said:

Having lived in both London and smaller but still busy cities such as Oxford, I can tell you that nothing beats the convenience of living right in the middle of a smaller city, with everything in walking distance. You make so much more of the place.

London has a lot going on 'in total' but it's horrendously spread around, and travel is a pain, so unless you live in Covent Garden going to a restaurant, gallery, museum, theatre, or club is a real effort. Whereas living in the centre of a beautiful but still buzzing city like Oxford, you have everything at your fingertips and the quality of life is orders of magnitude better.

Yeah to be fair if Oxford had the jobs I'd have stayed there. Loved the life I had there, unfortunately wages just don't support the house prices there and the jobs in my industry (and my girlfriends) aren't as interesting and challenging as the London ones.

[Up the spout]

The flood of money from the east and middle east has become a trickle, and suddenly house sales have halved and prices are dropping. Well who knew foreign money was buying property in the UK?? What a surprise. I had no idea. That's news to me. And to think, all of those blaming foreigners for unaffordable housing weren't racist bigots after all!

[Jozers]

4 hours ago, Kent Ambitions said:

 nothing beats the convenience of living right in the middle of a smaller city, with everything in walking distance. You make so much more of the place.

So true. Norwich is great like that. Living in west London, I really miss being able to walk everywhere.

[North London Rent Girl]

On 05/05/2017 at 10:14 AM, Kent Ambitions said:

Having lived in both London and smaller but still busy cities such as Oxford, I can tell you that nothing beats the convenience of living right in the middle of a smaller city, with everything in walking distance. You make so much more of the place.

London has a lot going on 'in total' but it's horrendously spread around, and travel is a pain, so unless you live in Covent Garden going to a restaurant, gallery, museum, theatre, or club is a real effort. Whereas living in the centre of a beautiful but still buzzing city like Oxford, you have everything at your fingertips and the quality of life is orders of magnitude better.

I sort of feel I have the small city effect by confining most of what I do to north london but I do find what you say very heartening as I'm bound to have to leave at some point... Oxford, hey? House price nightmare, right? The only person I know who lives there lives on a boat.

[North London Rent Girl]

On 05/05/2017 at 10:02 AM, dugsbody said:

Yes. Millions of people. 

Was talking specifically about the very centre for a night out but yes, judging by the legions of people inching their way along the pavement, a lot of people like that, too.

[rollover]

House price CRASH: Top London home values plunge lower in April

Suburbs favoured by the some of the world's richest people, such as Kensington and Chelsea have seen values tumble by more than 10 per cent from their post-recession peaks.
Overall, the number of exchanges in so-called prime central London sank by 11 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2017, said Knight Frank.
The lettings market has also taken a hit, falling another 0.2 per cent in April, meaning rents are down 0.7 per cent in the three months to April and 4.7 per cent year on year.

Tom Bill, head of London Research at Knight Frank said: "While it seems likely sales will improve, it doesn’t seem plausible that the same will be true for prices, at least in the short-term. Express

 

[Sancho Panza]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

House price CRASH: Top London home values plunge lower in April

Suburbs favoured by the some of the world's richest people, such as Kensington and Chelsea have seen values tumble by more than 10 per cent from their post-recession peaks.
Overall, the number of exchanges in so-called prime central London sank by 11 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2017, said Knight Frank.
The lettings market has also taken a hit, falling another 0.2 per cent in April, meaning rents are down 0.7 per cent in the three months to April and 4.7 per cent year on year.

Tom Bill, head of London Research at Knight Frank said: "While it seems likely sales will improve, it doesn’t seem plausible that the same will be true for prices, at least in the short-term. Express

 

It's even  more stark between 2007 and 2017

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=sw3&sellersPriceGuide=Start+Search

 

SW3 60 per month down to 20

[suntory]

****** me. 17 sold properties for January in Sw8.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=Sw8&sellersPriceGuide=Start+Search

[spyguy]

41 minutes ago, suntory said:

****** me. 17 sold properties for January in Sw8.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=Sw8&sellersPriceGuide=Start+Search

Christ, you should try some of the Norther postcodes I follow.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitch_drop_experiment

 

[spyguy]

There's so few sales, so there's no pricing signal, so people are putting stuff up at stupid prices.

Its a total mess.

There's about 10+ years of unsold stock kicking around. When IR turn thats all going to run for the exit.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Christ, you should try some of the Norther postcodes I follow.

SW8 includes Nine Elms. where 20,000 new properties are coming to market

[suntory]

46 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

SW8 includes Nine Elms. where 20,000 new properties are coming to market

I know. That's why I posted it. At the moment there are more than 1700 properties listed. That is already a pitiful demand/supply ratio of 1% equating to 100 months of supply. But there are hundreds of flats that have been delisted in the last few months so those aren't even included. And the icing on the cake are the thousands of flats that will be added. It is just absolutely insane. Mega crash.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

SW8 includes Nine Elms. where 20,000 new properties are coming to market

Theres a lot of empty props in the North.

Not as much new build coming on tap though.

So the stock levels are at the same length as the average mortgage.

[Peter Hun]

" That is already a pitiful demand/supply ratio of 1% equating to 100 months of supply."

Last time I checked LR, the Nine Elms sales were 1/3 of the Sw8 sales total. Think 5 new build sales not 17.