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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by anonlymouse

  1. Q2 Report (which breaks down regional performances) is out in June.
  2. Modest slowing in annual house price growth during May
  3. Nah homes don't need to get any smaller than they already are. I just mean people should be a bit more accepting of having a terrace house or living in flats rather than living in a noddy box in an estate of nowhere. Higher density means that public transport becomes more viable and parks etc can outweigh the loss of garden space.
  4. The built environment occupies about 6% of the UK's landmass, with much of that being low density suburbia. You could easily double to population without doubling the amount that's built on if people weren't so obsessed with their 'detached' shoeboxes.
  5. And that's the million dollar question. A year ago I was so convinced that the Nationwide index would be negative in monthly, quarterly and annual figures by April this year I went looking on spread betting sites for ways to place a bet. Glad I didn't as clearly the market is staying irrational longer than anyone here has anticipated.
  6. You're single, earn less than 3/5 of the median UK salary, and can't afford to buy somewhere which is bigger than what you need - but the problem is feminism? You've got a beam in your eye fella.
  7. Yeah they'll undoubtedly be an overcorrection, emotions being what they are. A 1:200 Rent:House Price Ratio is the requirement of the PRA regs (145% mortgage interest coverage at interest rates of 5.5%, with a max 75% LTV). It'd give a gross yield of around 24% before costs & taxes and maybe 4-5% net. Certainly not my cup of tea in terms of risk/reward and the amount of work required but obviously it appeals to some.
  8. London. It is a bit of a back of a fag packet calculation (and one I'm loathe to make) but BTL starts to stack up again in terms of yield and taxes when prices are around 200*monthly rent. I think at the moment in my neck of the woods they're running at about 250-280*monthly rent so there's a good 25% drop coming if S24 results in landlords exiting the market. Of course if rents go down then the breakeven for BTL goes down with it but at the moment I think that puts a floor under prices.
  9. I expect that nominally, prices will be about the same as they are currently - however in real terms they'll probably be 1/5 - 1/4 cheaper. Unfortunately I can't see any nominal falls of more than 25% as that's the point where the maths for BTL start working again.
  10. Venger's fine, it's his/her keyboard that's given up.
  11. N16 Is 918 & 362 i.e. 556 sales in 2016 and 362 in 2017. London Zone 2, 35% down.
  12. Hook, line, and sinker. That's a demand side discussion, and doesn't address the problem that supply isn't being delivered.
  13. There was an item in the architects journal today revealing that only 46% of the potential housing supply in London (I.e. The schemes which receive planning permission) is actually being built. Voila, an aspect of housing economics (increasing supply) which is entirely disconnected from immigration. Discuss.
  14. Lots in the standard property pullout today as well. Stamp duty / deposit contribution seems to be de rigour on all new builds - even the lowest price brackets. Nine months ago you'd only see that on the £1m+ homes.
  15. Monevator.com is an excellent blog on passive investing with several great resources on choosing the best platform and funds for your situation.
  16. The best book I've read on constructing a globally diversified passive index portfolio (both the rationale for doing so and the cheapest way to go about it) is Smarter Investing by Tim Hale. It took just under a fortnight to read it, digest it, and start investing. The key takeaway is that everyone is trying to find an edge to create above average returns. Private investors, institutions, fund managers, they're all actively buying and selling to optimise their returns. The sum total of all that activity is the market. Given that over the long run, very few professionals are able to beat the market, and you're about as likely to be able to pick them as you are individual stocks, it's actually far cheaper to simply own a representative sample of the market and let other people do the expensive bits of buying and selling while you can relax and let their activity lift the market for you.
  17. It's the inwards ripple. Why move somewhere which adds 250hrs a year to your commute if you can now afford somewhere in Zone 5. Why move out to Zone 5 if you can now afford a house in Zone 3. Etc etc. As the inner London boroughs get cheaper people aren't pushed outwards like they used to be, which in turn deflates outer London boroughs, which in turn deflates the commuter belt.
  18. To be fair, owning an appreciating asset and renting a depreciating one is the right way to go about things.
  19. A defined contribution pension is your own income, topped up by your employer, placed inside a tax efficient wrapper. Inside the wrapper it can be cash, bonds, or equities. You are in charge of how your own wealth is invested. The tax treatment means is the best way to save for your old age as you can compound your returns before tax, not after. If these 18 yo's are smart and invest it well, that stick will get shorter, not longer.
  20. Do you mind if I ask how much the house you're renting would sell for? After so many years of skrimping and saving a deposit and dealing with ******** from landlords I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would a) be willing to deal with that again and gamble against the risk that fails may not outpace rents.
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