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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/construction-property/article3943342.ece

Candy warns the luxury property sweet spot could soon turn sour

One of Britain’s best-known property developers has warned that the bottom could fall out of the market for the kind of super-luxurious and super-expensive apartments favoured by tycoons and oligarchs.

Nick Candy, the chief executive of Candy & Candy, said that the rush to develop high-end luxury flats in London could lead to an oversupply that, in turn, could hit values.

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http://www.thetimes....icle3943342.ece

Candy warns the luxury property sweet spot could soon turn sour

One of Britain's best-known property developers has warned that the bottom could fall out of the market for the kind of super-luxurious and super-expensive apartments favoured by tycoons and oligarchs.

Nick Candy, the chief executive of Candy & Candy, said that the rush to develop high-end luxury flats in London could lead to an oversupply that, in turn, could hit values.

A bit like money, if you print too much the "value" diminishes? They will build so much that eventually chavs will have "luxury" apartments (I`m led to believe that Edinburgh council were putting junkies and social housing people up in "luxury" flats that they had bought in batches from developers, much to the dismay of the numpties who "paid" 500k) One thing is for sure, if London starts to wobble, the stats are going to look very bad, killing sentiment and inducing panic in other parts of the country. Bring it on!

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So we have Candy(man) saying this, and the Wilsons looking like they are downsizing their "portfolio", is this the bellwether?

Do you actually believe what they are saying, think about it, this has been correct since 2007, but if QE continues prices will still go up.

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Do you actually believe what they are saying, think about it, this has been correct since 2007, but if QE continues prices will still go up.

In this part of the market its not QE so much as cash purchasses from abroad. If London is no longer seen as a safe haven and\or Sterling strengthens that would have a bigger impact., as it may if there's a sniff of higher rates. By itself it won't prompt people to sell, just maybe not buy as much.

QE is going to be yesterday's news this time next year, the Fed is putting that particular genie back in the bottle.

My guess (fwiw) stagnation in the £2m plus bracket towards the end of the year. However don't hold your breath for a "crash" as these sort of people are hardly under pressure to sell so supply will naturally dry up, and who knows when the owner may have to dash to London on the event of ascension of political enemies, a coup d'etat, corruption or bribery scandals, Government confiscatory legislation (hello Cyprus). etc.

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Do you actually believe what they are saying, think about it, this has been correct since 2007, but if QE continues prices will still go up.

If you are talking about the Wilsons, and I admit to not having read in depth about what they are saying, my guess is that they have been told by their lender (they are debtors after all) to start cutting the exposure to property and sell some off, this may be possible if they started buying (and borrowing to do so) some time ago? They may trumpet a load of shite to the media to big themselves up as "in control" or "smart business people" but they just owe a lot of money to banks on a declining asset, nothing more nothing less.

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In this part of the market its not QE so much as cash purchasses from abroad. If London is no longer seen as a safe haven and\or Sterling strengthens that would have a bigger impact., as it may if there's a sniff of higher rates. By itself it won't prompt people to sell, just maybe not buy as much.

QE is going to be yesterday's news this time next year, the Fed is putting that particular genie back in the bottle.

My guess (fwiw) stagnation in the £2m plus bracket towards the end of the year. However don't hold your breath for a "crash" as these sort of people are hardly under pressure to sell so supply will naturally dry up, and who knows when the owner may have to dash to London on the event of ascension of political enemies, a coup d'etat, corruption or bribery scandals, Government confiscatory legislation (hello Cyprus). etc.

I hope that the oversupply and this are the triggers:

http://www.mindfulmo...ed-say-experts/

Will CGT on foreign owned property cause flood of prime London homes? That depends on how the tax is calculated say experts

Edited by Damik

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A bit like money, if you print too much the "value" diminishes? They will build so much that eventually chavs will have "luxury" apartments (I`m led to believe that Edinburgh council were putting junkies and social housing people up in "luxury" flats that they had bought in batches from developers, much to the dismay of the numpties who "paid" 500k) One thing is for sure, if London starts to wobble, the stats are going to look very bad, killing sentiment and inducing panic in other parts of the country. Bring it on!

Any bubble can not go forever and has to pop up sooner or later:

Chelsea and Kensington.jpg

post-7729-0-86401200-1388856405_thumb.jpg

Edited by Damik

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Anyway. The most likely trigger for a crash now in London seems the strengthening pound. Less desirable for foreigners to invest here, more desirable to profit take. All they need do to combat that however is print more, which theyre just looking for an excuse to do. Screw the average mans purchasing power. Its all about banksters property portfolios.

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In this part of the market its not QE so much as cash purchasses from abroad. If London is no longer seen as a safe haven and\or Sterling strengthens that would have a bigger impact., as it may if there's a sniff of higher rates. By itself it won't prompt people to sell, just maybe not buy as much.

QE is going to be yesterday's news this time next year, the Fed is putting that particular genie back in the bottle.

My guess (fwiw) stagnation in the £2m plus bracket towards the end of the year. However don't hold your breath for a "crash" as these sort of people are hardly under pressure to sell so supply will naturally dry up, and who knows when the owner may have to dash to London on the event of ascension of political enemies, a coup d'etat, corruption or bribery scandals, Government confiscatory legislation (hello Cyprus). etc.

Only likely confiscatory scenario here is if inflation prohibits printing. And given the average twat off the street is blind to the punitive effects of wage inflation at 0% and price inflation at 5% (which is no better than the 70s episode of wage inflation at 10% price inflation at 15%) nothing will wake him up. They'll confiscate by stealth,not by seizures.

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If you are talking about the Wilsons, and I admit to not having read in depth about what they are saying, my guess is that they have been told by their lender (they are debtors after all) to start cutting the exposure to property and sell some off,

IIRC B&B were the lenders and most of B&B`s mortgage book is now under the control of UKAR (RBS bad bank) which has to clear its mortgage book within 3 to 4 years so they may well be feeling the squeeze

But if the above is right I think they will have a fair bit of leverage over there lender ,as the old saying goes -if you owe the bank a million pound and you can't pay you have a problem if you owe the bank an hundred million pound and you can't pay the bank has a problem ....1000 houses in Kent anyone

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Anyway. The most likely trigger for a crash now in London seems the strengthening pound.

No, that would merely halt the rally.

A global economic implosion is the most likely trigger. 2008 was the last one and the next one is due in a year or 3.

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Only likely confiscatory scenario here is if inflation prohibits printing. And given the average twat off the street is blind to the punitive effects of wage inflation at 0% and price inflation at 5% (which is no better than the 70s episode of wage inflation at 10% price inflation at 15%) nothing will wake him up. They'll confiscate by stealth,not by seizures.

No, deposits confiscation is going to be widespread and right in the open. Also, agreed there is the stealth one too.

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No, deposits confiscation is going to be widespread and right in the open. Also, agreed there is the stealth one too.

why?

Its only done to improve banks balance sheets and they already know it can be done via QE with a lot less resistance. Seizures are inherently deflationary, which is the last think any western government save the german controlled ECB want.

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why?

Its only done to improve banks balance sheets and they already know it can be done via QE with a lot less resistance. Seizures are inherently deflationary, which is the last think any western government save the german controlled ECB want.

Because we're more likely turning Japanese ie multi year (decade) dis/deflation

Like the govts can do anything about it? Like Japan cld do anything about it?

Earnings deflation, underemployment, higher taxes, next recession will be the biggie - hardly inflationary

Have you not noticed every country has record low inflation or multi year lows

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Because we're more likely turning Japanese ie multi year (decade) dis/deflation

Like the govts can do anything about it? Like Japan cld do anything about it?

Earnings deflation, underemployment, higher taxes, next recession will be the biggie - hardly inflationary

Have you not noticed every country has record low inflation or multi year lows

Well, exactly. If inflation is nominally low (although as long as its running above wage inflation, still undesirable IMO), why would they be worried about printing more money.

Why upset voters with a seizure when they can do the same thing with apparently no one noticing?

What exactly do you think they have to gain via seizures that they cant achieve with QE?

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as the old saying goes -if you owe the bank a million pound and you can't pay you have a problem if you owe the bank an hundred million pound and you can't pay the bank has a problem.

Maybe, but much bigger fish than Fergus Fatman have bankrupted themselves over-extending on property. Simon Halabi once owned 1/3 of the Shard. Now bankrupt.

If you are talking about the Wilsons, ...They may trumpet a load of shite to the media to big themselves up as "in control" or "smart business people" but they just owe a lot of money to banks on a declining asset, nothing more nothing less.

It's just a gamble isn't it? The "maths teachers" meme keeps being trotted out as if they've come up with some magic formula to outsmart everyone not mortgaged up to the sphincter. Truth is, they got greedy and bet on HPI continuing. "Just one more house Judith, I'll stop when I get to 1,000."

I personally think their chances of exiting from that position with a worthwhile profit are slim. If they come out on top it will be purely down to luck. Red or black? Place your bets.

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In this part of the market its not QE so much as cash purchasses from abroad. If London is no longer seen as a safe haven and\or Sterling strengthens that would have a bigger impact., as it may if there's a sniff of higher rates. By itself it won't prompt people to sell, just maybe not buy as much.

QE is going to be yesterday's news this time next year, the Fed is putting that particular genie back in the bottle.

My guess (fwiw) stagnation in the £2m plus bracket towards the end of the year. However don't hold your breath for a "crash" as these sort of people are hardly under pressure to sell so supply will naturally dry up, and who knows when the owner may have to dash to London on the event of ascension of political enemies, a coup d'etat, corruption or bribery scandals, Government confiscatory legislation (hello Cyprus). etc.

QE and cash purchases from abroad are one and the same thing. Where do you think this money is coming from? QE has lowered the value of the pound giving a huge advantage to overseas buyers, and the search for yield brought on by QE has massively inflated the wealth of the rich in emerging markets.

QE has exactly nothing to do with lower the cost of borrowing for the average person - it's all about boosting asset prices for the super rich.

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Well, exactly. If inflation is nominally low (although as long as its running above wage inflation, still undesirable IMO), why would they be worried about printing more money.

Why upset voters with a seizure when they can do the same thing with apparently no one noticing?

What exactly do you think they have to gain via seizures that they cant achieve with QE?

But they can't achieve with QE. As you know Japan tried it. Deflation too strong.

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So it seems that Prime London will not grow as fast as 2013, but it will not definitely crash. Not at all. 100%. What a bunch of morons .... :lol::lol::lol:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10568918/Prime-London-property-growth-to-slow-in-2014.html

A leading property portfolio manager and expert on central London residential property has said price growth will fall sharply this year.

Naomi Heaton of London Central Portfolio Ltd, a company overseeing around £500m of property on behalf of a range of investors, predicts growth will fall from 2013's 12.5pc to 5.5pc this year.

This would make 2014 the worst-performing year since 2009.

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So it seems that Prime London will not grow as fast as 2013, but it will not definitely crash. Not at all. 100%. What a bunch of morons .... :lol::lol::lol:

http://www.telegraph...ow-in-2014.html

A leading property portfolio manager and expert on central London residential property has said price growth will fall sharply this year.

Naomi Heaton of London Central Portfolio Ltd, a company overseeing around £500m of property on behalf of a range of investors, predicts growth will fall from 2013's 12.5pc to 5.5pc this year.

This would make 2014 the worst-performing year since 2009.

Priceless. What a world these fools and jackanapes inhabit.

She [Heaton] downplayed any suggestion of a bubble, saying:

"Headline comments demonstrate a lack of knowledge of underlying growth trends in prime London property." Last year showed "unremarkable growth of 12.5pc, compared with average growth of 9pc over the last 40 years. It is way below the 26.1pc growth experienced in 2000 – when no analyst even cottoned-on to potentially dangerous price escalation and which corrected itself in due course, without artificial manipulation."

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