September Will Be ‘Crunch Time’ For House Prices

[theonlywayisdown]

BTL?

Not an MP, nor a BTL landlord, so far from this lol. If I called what I did 'work', you'd be having a laugh. I treat it like a business, but its not though.

[Milton]

Not an MP, nor a BTL landlord, so far from this lol. If I called what I did 'work', you'd be having a laugh. I treat it like a business, but its not though.

B Movie PornStar?

[bricor mortis]

There was a period of many centuries in British History, where we all lived together, traded with each other, farmed the land, and it was in the best interests of all the population to 'get along'

Built houses wherever we wanted. Land for free.

We had our our own rules and laws. Real Communities. Our own civilisation.

And NO GOVERNMENT.

Then the Romans came along, and developed the South East. Bastardiums.

Go Danno.

What have they ever done for us.

[theonlywayisdown]

B Movie PornStar?

not even close.

Infact, anyone could do what I do. But making money from it....maybe 1% do?

[dances with sheeple]

That is the biggest danger.

But if that happens, if the electorate has become that... "unwise" (being very polite here), then it will show that the problem got much deeper, bigger, and longer term - if not permanent - and the only solution then will be emigration. Unfortunately.

Even if Labour get re-elected off the back of a recession proper, they won`t be able to re-start the credit party, the sheeple "I`m a celeb kind of" decade is well and truly over, house prices will drop accordingly. Non of the next Labour wannabe crowd are electable IMO, there is certainly no Blair in the wings?

[Kyoto]

Good for you. With a decent drop round my way (30%), I should be in a position to buy what I want in about 18 months. For cash.

Entirely done by saving from my salary, knocking the foreign hols and expensive clothing purchases on the head. Still have what I consider to be a great standard of living, nice car (paid for in cash), eat out regularly and socialise.

Thanks to the wise advice of many on this site.

Me too, I will be in a position to buy cash around Christmas realistically. I've had a good year - have been coining it (IT contractor), but have lived like a pauper - renting a room, taking the bus to work, and have knocked every expense on it's head.

It's been hard at times but semi-retiring at 29 will be worth it :-)

One things for sure - I'm not getting on any 'housing ladder' when I do buy. I know guys with £1 million + of equity in their homes, but they are still slaving away to service £1 million + of bank mortgages on the other half. They're millionaires and working harder and living with less freedom than I'll be doing in my little £150k place. Would't swap with them for anything.

[Mal Volio]

the real falls will start in Feb or March next year when the perfect storm arrives

The real falls have been scheduled for 6 months hence for the last 5 years, at least

(and I'm a bear)

[Mancghirl]

Me too, I will be in a position to buy cash around Christmas realistically. I've had a good year - have been coining it (IT contractor), but have lived like a pauper - renting a room, taking the bus to work, and have knocked every expense on it's head.

It's been hard at times but semi-retiring at 29 will be worth it :-)

One things for sure - I'm not getting on any 'housing ladder' when I do buy. I know guys with £1 million + of equity in their homes, but they are still slaving away to service £1 million + of bank mortgages on the other half. They're millionaires and working harder and living with less freedom than I'll be doing in my little £150k place. Would't swap with them for anything.

Damn straight. I'm aiming for a 2 or 3 bed big Victorian flat in a decent area. I've skipped the FTB type place and unlikely I'll ever want anything bigger (unless I unexpectedly have more than 1 or 2 kids). No aspiration to have some massive house - its not the same in Edinburgh anyway, many people live in flats much bigger than houses. Being mortgage free will be the biggest freedom.

Already paying big into my pension, so once the saving to buy is done I can start building substantial savings for the long term.

[deflation]

You have the "luxury" of freehold flats in Scotland though.

I'd be happy with a flat really if it weren't for the leasehold system in England where you can get stuffed for 'service charges.' Notwithstanding the problem of extending the lease after a few years, if you want to sell it.

[Mancghirl]

You have the "luxury" of freehold flats in Scotland though.

I'd be happy with a flat really if it weren't for the leasehold system in England where you can get stuffed for 'service charges.' Notwithstanding the problem of extending the lease after a few years, if you want to sell it.

I agree wholeheartedly. However, accordingly, flats in decent bits of Edinburgh cost as much as some houses in large swathes of England. There are still crappy new build 'luxury' estates with 'service charges' here as well. Though why you would bother when the existing housing stock is solidly built is beyond me. The lure of the en-suite bathroom appears to outweigh having internal walls made out of cardboard.

[Protect Rural England]

I agree wholeheartedly. However, accordingly, flats in decent bits of Edinburgh cost as much as some houses in large swathes of England. There are still crappy new build 'luxury' estates with 'service charges' here as well. Though why you would bother when the existing housing stock is solidly built is beyond me. The lure of the en-suite bathroom appears to outweigh having internal walls made out of cardboard.

[Mal Volio]

But in that time we had QE, SMI, 0.5% base rate, banks told not to ignore mortgage defaults, public sector job creation etc, are there any more props that can be used? If there are then yes there will be no fall in prices.

This time it's different ?

[Pent Up]

This time it's different ?

This time it appears to be happening it does seen to be 'different'.

[Si1]

But say for example the coalition collapse and labour win an emergency election in October. Then what? Labour removes the austerity measure, the markets don't like a country without a suitable plan for deficit reduction, the pound plummets, inflation surges, the bond vigilantes return with avengence and it's 15% interest rates.

Ed Balls as chancellor - oh dear

[hpc-craig]

Fortunately for me, I found 'another way'. Currently at this rate, it'll take me one more year to have £150,000 cash to buy a house outright. So 1.5years total to save from effectively zero and buying a house outright. And no, I'm not a drug dealer, and yes what I do is entirely legal and the government hasn't taken an interest in it.

Great for me!

Poker player?

[Laughing Gnome]

Go Danno.

What have they ever done for us.

OK, apart from the roads and the peace and security.

[scottbeard]

Me too, I will be in a position to buy cash around Christmas realistically. I've had a good year - have been coining it (IT contractor), but have lived like a pauper - renting a room, taking the bus to work, and have knocked every expense on it's head.

It's been hard at times but semi-retiring at 29 will be worth it :-)

One things for sure - I'm not getting on any 'housing ladder' when I do buy. I know guys with £1 million + of equity in their homes, but they are still slaving away to service £1 million + of bank mortgages on the other half. They're millionaires and working harder and living with less freedom than I'll be doing in my little £150k place. Would't swap with them for anything.

I'm guessing you're single. I can't imagine you have a wife who is happy living like a pauper when you're earning lots of money

Amongst my peers I was famous as a new graduate at work for basically spending nothing of my new-found money! As soon as I got married, that shifted straight into reverse - culminating in buying a large expensive house!! Now divorced, house sold, and natural saver tendency is back. Happier as a result. For me, financial security delivers a peace of mind that a large house and a shiny car simply cannot.

It's an old saying but people on their deathbeds seldom say that they wish they had spent more time in the office working.

I have heard that phrase a lot, and yet never interviewed anyone or their deathbed. I wonder if it really holds true? Most older people seem either to have no regrets, or a wheelbarrow-full.

I feel in retrospect I spent too much time at school working, and should have just spent more time chasing girls. But then, if I had spent all the time chasing girls, maybe I would now be in a rubbish job with no money, wishing I had studied more?

[juvenal]

Me too, I will be in a position to buy cash around Christmas realistically. I've had a good year - have been coining it (IT contractor), but have lived like a pauper - renting a room, taking the bus to work, and have knocked every expense on it's head.

It's been hard at times but semi-retiring at 29 will be worth it :-)

One things for sure - I'm not getting on any 'housing ladder' when I do buy. I know guys with £1 million + of equity in their homes, but they are still slaving away to service £1 million + of bank mortgages on the other half. They're millionaires and working harder and living with less freedom than I'll be doing in my little £150k place. Would't swap with them for anything.

You're a smart guy/gal and won't regret your strategy. You've paid your dues - and your payout time is coming.

[Mancghirl]

I'm guessing you're single. I can't imagine you have a wife who is happy living like a pauper when you're earning lots of money

We don't KNOW he's a guy

Can we not tar all women with the same brush, please? Some of us have a modicum of sense.......

[Tired of Waiting]

Even if Labour get re-elected off the back of a recession proper, they won`t be able to re-start the credit party, the sheeple "I`m a celeb kind of" decade is well and truly over, house prices will drop accordingly.

Maybe. I hope so. But I'm not so sure they wouldn't be able to start inflating it again.

Besides, thanks to the their Old Labour left wing Labour would still be unable to govern well - like decentralise, reform the public services (or to keep the Tory reforms), and keep it small.

But I agree that they shouldn't be able to feck the country so badly again. They couldn't... Could they? Nah.. They wouldn't... Would they?

Non of the next Labour wannabe crowd are electable IMO, there is certainly no Blair in the wings?

I think David Miliband is the most dangerous - most "centrist", like Blair.

[Laura]

I think David Miliband is the most dangerous - most "centrist", like Blair.

(off-topic) - His ignoring of certain events around Gaza should give an indication of his real agenda;

(as mapped out for him by his controllers, & paid for by the peasantry, as ever).

--------------

Part of me repeatedly thinks, that Basically were all Fecked.

And should be ripping up our tax returns.

The only way out of this will be a serious tax revolt by the disposessed.

Refusing to pay for debt that is not our own, currently running at £200k per UK household.

That wont happen because we would rather live in Indentured slavery than behind bars.

[Although if we all did it, what could they do?]

Im not getting a £150k mortgage, then working my ass off for 30 years, paying three times that amount back, for a pile of bricks, plasterboard, bit of carpet, glass, and some cement, on a opiece of land the size of a postage stamp

I

300 years of puritan repression & still some of the peasantry wont lie down!!

[Kyoto]

I'm guessing you're single. I can't imagine you have a wife who is happy living like a pauper when you're earning lots of money

Amongst my peers I was famous as a new graduate at work for basically spending nothing of my new-found money! As soon as I got married, that shifted straight into reverse - culminating in buying a large expensive house!! Now divorced, house sold, and natural saver tendency is back. Happier as a result. For me, financial security delivers a peace of mind that a large house and a shiny car simply cannot.

I do have a girlfriend but she's been studying, so I've just reverted to the student lifestyle for a few extra years.

I had a wobble similar to yourself too. I was talked into buying in 2005 against my better judgement. We took on a huge mortgage to make it happen. I remember the day I received the first annual mortgage statement, and saw that we'd paid £18,000 of which (I think) £15,000 was interest to the bank. This was the first of a 25 year mortgage term. I literally cried - it felt like I'd signed the best year of my life away as some sort of financial slave. The house was ultimately the end of the relationship; we split, sold up to a greater fool, and I learnt an expensive but valuable lesson.

New girlfriend is fortunately much more financially astute.

[Liquid Goldfish]

Based on residential property transactions from 2006 – 2009, June has been the busiest month of the year, followed by August and then July.

Methinks Mr. Boulger is talking sh!te.

I think it's a busy time for completions but a slow time for newly agrees sales and general househunting activity

[magneticworld]

people on the ft are possibly (certainly ??) more financial savvy than me however ......I think that stating a particular month is too precise and error prone. I prefer dealing within a time interval / stretch period etc.... September - beginning or end - is approx. 2.5 weeks or 6.5 weeks respectively away from todays date. Nothing so far within that time frame - bar some unbelievable "financial event" between now and then is gonna make it crunch time per se. .......

I much rather go with any analysis that looks at the 4th qrt of 2010. Spending review is Oct 2010 until then things will just pitter patter as they are painfully slowly but surely downwards. Even after the review I expect no sudden sharp dip as all the review info works into the system (incl media noise).. however the tail end of qrt 4 might just start showing what many think maybe.

additionally fwiw - there does not seem to be any news (info of any kind) that seems to carry the same unknown fear factor that came with the financial crash when banks were in free fall and there was that unknown regarding banks and prime mortgages.. lets face it that period was a shock real big shock. If you compare then to now well the spending review won't deliver that shock unless the cuts are on a scale that baffles....other than that then a supprise rise in IR..

At the moment a shock is required...right now can't see the shock..itr's all drip drip drip................

[The Masked Tulip]

people on the ft are possibly (certainly ??) more financial savvy than me however ......I think that stating a particular month is too precise and error prone. I prefer dealing within a time interval / stretch period etc.... September - beginning or end - is approx. 2.5 weeks or 6.5 weeks respectively away from todays date. Nothing so far within that time frame - bar some unbelievable "financial event" between now and then is gonna make it crunch time per se. .......

I much rather go with any analysis that looks at the 4th qrt of 2010. Spending review is Oct 2010 until then things will just pitter patter as they are painfully slowly but surely downwards. Even after the review I expect no sudden sharp dip as all the review info works into the system (incl media noise).. however the tail end of qrt 4 might just start showing what many think maybe.

additionally fwiw - there does not seem to be any news (info of any kind) that seems to carry the same unknown fear factor that came with the financial crash when banks were in free fall and there was that unknown regarding banks and prime mortgages.. lets face it that period was a shock real big shock. If you compare then to now well the spending review won't deliver that shock unless the cuts are on a scale that baffles....other than that then a supprise rise in IR..

At the moment a shock is required...right now can't see the shock..itr's all drip drip drip................

I don't recall the FT spotting the collapse in 2008/09.