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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Ive never seen anyone make that link between weak sterling and inflation, on here let alone in mainstream media. And yet surely that is the largest cause?
  2. £400,000, or nearly *half a million pounds* for a house doesn't look overpriced? That's at least 15x local income.
  3. It makes perfect sense though. Every £1 that goes into the housing market via these schemes is an extra £1 in demand. The government could save billions by doing nothing. If they actively tried to push down rents and housing costs they could make tens of billions in increased competitiveness, less housing related benefits, more stamp duty as the market gets moving again.
  4. If that was the case, that would be great. But it doesn't work like that right? How come our house prices have not risen 100% since rates have fallen 100% since 2008, if they are that well correlated?
  5. Don't get me wrong. I am NOT saying this is a reason to buy. It would be the worst of both worlds to be stuck with big debt and high interest rates. However, for the vast majority of buyers a 1% rise interest rate rise takes money out of your pocket than a 1% fall in house prices puts in your pocket. I also think you are giving our housing too much credit as being rational. Do we really see IR rises priced in to prices in any meaningful sense? Prospect of a rate rise is growing by the day, but no movement in prices.
  6. I agree that some people on the site are cash rich and will have large deposits. However, the figures I quoted were pretty modest. I have a £100k+ deposit, but I'd still expect to pay £200k+ in todays market down here commutable to London. We can argue about the outliers such as us, but the fact remains that in most scenarios a 1% rise interest rate rise takes money out of your pocket than a 1% fall in house prices puts in your pocket. And again, add on higher petrol, food costs, taxes, suppressed wages. The circumstance which people think will save us is good for nobody.
  7. On this site, people are baying for interest rate rises. But lets work through an simple scenario: You could buy today at something like: £150k mortgage at 4% interest = ~ £6000 interest per year. But say you don't buy and staunchly hold on for the impending crash. We eventually get our own way and achieve a 33% fall in values as a result of a high interest rate environment. You decide to buy, leaving you paying: £100k mortgage at 8% interest = ~ £8000 interest per year. i.e. higher payments and a net loss for you over any reasonable mortgage term. The true picture can be even worse with a large mortgage and also with how they front load interest on a mortgage. At least in this low interest rate environment you can be hammering capital, even if's a larger principle. The same arguments can be applied to some of the other HPC desirables. People on here talk about job losses, inflation, cuts in benefits as being drivers for the HPC, but again, the money you eventually save on your house purchase might be paid back twice over when it costs hundreds of pounds extra per month to feed yourself and get yourself to work, and when you don't have a job and receive terrible benefits as a result. Be careful what you wish for....
  8. Exactly. This makes the measure almost neutral for me as I have no interest in a POS shared ownership new build. Still would rather they kept their money to themselves but could be worse.
  9. There is a small community of Thorium enthusiasts? They need to get out more!
  10. This is one of the problems with the collective bearish HPC mindset. People on this site see everything as insurmountable, where in reality, bad situations create new opportunities. Necessity is the mother of invention and all that. 20 years ago we barely had industries such as IT, mobile phones, coffee shops, green energy, online marketing, and low cost travel. Who knows what is going to come up in the future and how many jobs it will create? This is why it's so short sighted to load students with debt and cut research and infrastructure investment. We need to use our resources to make sure we own the next generation of industry.
  11. Why don't they get it? Houses are too expensive because of government support. Put the money to better use and watch the problem solve itself!
  12. I know someone who came in via one of these borderline colleges but then went to a real uni and now pays around £40k per year tax. The ideal system would let in the best and the brightest, the most driven, the entrepreneurs etc. Locking it down too far isn't in the interests of the country.
  13. It's far from linear. You need to spend £500+ for somewhere habitable even if you earn £20k. Bit if you earn £100k (5 times as much) you wouldn't need or want to spend even twice that much in rent.
  14. That post has just reignited my belief in a HPC. £185,000 for that piece of crap. Jesus wept!
  15. Relaxing planning rules in this way is obviously great from a HPC perspective, but it's a shame that you might see more character buildings and local businesses chopped up and sold off to BTL spivs in the process.
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