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magneticworld

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  1. Also no one has some crystal ball that predicts the next outcome 100% regarding the virus and effect over the next 12 - 18 months (or beyond) on the economy - hang on stay with me for a moment: What if as the economy opens we do not get a 2nd spike or 3rd spike or N spike and the govt (nations etc) find a way to manage the situation if it does happen without needing a 2nd lock down? What if the current hit to industries and economies - bad as they are - become manageable and by 4th quarter and beyond the world (UK, Europe etc etc) begin to learn how to live with the virus and that we have to manage this new reality by having the economy function as best it can irrespective (we accept its here to stay and learn to live with it)? What if over time as we start learning how to live with this virus (i.e this new normal) businesses, industries etc will start to recover in a 'new normal' i.e. okay travel may never be the same in terms of numbers but people can still travel, go on holidays again not same number but work kicks back in full throttle (reduced staff maybe), other industries, services spring up to mop up some of the unemployed or people retrain and become productive elsewhere (oh by the way that fruit picking job we shun - ain't so bad to do anyway as necessity is the mother of invention etc etc) yes work from home is mainstream and / or if you can go to work with business providing a safe rotation formula or way for us to be productive in this new normal then we go to work etc? What if points 1 - 3 replicates across the world - yes there will be a contraction of course (the 2008 final crash happened and another will happen and another etc and the world is still ticking along) but in this new normal - maybe it it is one we have to get used to and things will go on in this new normal however we establish it What if??? FYI - I'm not even mentioning a vaccine or cure here as that muddies the waters. Just plain we have to live with this until forever and if a vaccine or cure comes fantastic (OR if the virus subsides over time) but until then a new normal has to happen
  2. Crash - IBIWISI - I'll believe it when I see it. Humour aside the rate of unemployment is the hidden sauce here no matter what anyone says. I have to say though that over the last week I have seen 2 properties listed in an area I'm interested in advertised at almost 10% -15% down from what properties in the area has sold for in the recent past (3 to 6 months ago) - I actually thought the price listing was a mistake or a click bait whereupon by the time you do a viewing and have funds to make an offer the estate agent would then turnaround and tell you that the property is oversubscribed and the price last offered (or being considered by vendor) is 10% -15% up from what's listed. I have also seen (in the same week and same area) a handful of properties come on that are listed with prices that align with the recent past so these 2 stick out as such an anomaly. Above is just my account of things. At this time no clue where my job will be by 3rd or 4th quarter and beyond anyway summary is: I don't know what to expect as too many govt interventions have happened that I know nothing so IBIWISI but not expecting a house price crash (yes I know that as I have seen those 2 properties I mention I should feel the tide may be turning lol well just shows I don't know what to believe till the trend is stark blind mainstream)
  3. I am unsure of a crash of the likes mentioned here and elsewhere will occur. In 2007/2008 the sentiment was pretty much the same as now and the % reductions branded about was stunning - some said 20%, 30% even 50%. COVID-19 has set tongues wagging again and a repeat of the same chatter is going on - submitted an offer on a property last quarter and the vendor, understandably, pulled property out the market when COVID-19 became what it is in the UK. I don't know what the government will do but just as in 2008 they'll probably find a way to keep property from crashing 20%, 30%, 50% whatever. I am watching China to see how they come along and how their containment and lock down relaxation may pave the way for others countries to follow as obtaining a vaccine this year (unless some already existing drug works on it) is a pipe dream. Priority now has to be survival i.e. property can take a back seat. Expecting 20%, 30%, 50% falls from COVID-19 is just a guess frankly if the world is in lock down for say 6 or 9+ months then house price will not be what would be uppermost in any ones mind bar the wealthy as just retaining or having a job to get food or survival will be the main say. Finally if people are right and some % falls do occur then sheer pent up demand will push them up again with gazumping probably being the norm - it is after all a competitive market. Then again - what do I know - so many assumptions everywhere
  4. ..why go there? why...? how you got that from the posters reply beats me...
  5. ...very entertaining thread. Whilst I want property prices to come down and gather knowledge on the market from visiting this forum to read debates and differences etc... ..I am often bemused at the hostility shown by some posters when peeps (so called bulls / neithers) have a different opinion to theirs.. they are very quick to hurl abusive or derogatory comments on those who don't follow their line of thought rather than debate the issue like adults and accept that in some cases one must simply agree to disagree This exchange between you and the one who calls you stupid in this particular thread is a classic example.. you debated the issue without hurling abuse (at least on this particular thread) the "other" continues to be agressive and increasingly abusive displaying traits of all the characteristics I have mentioned above.. hmmm..... continue your post... I like to hear all sides.. and whatever happens....... don't stoop so low as to hurl abuses back on the "one" who calls you stupid.. just don't stoop down to that level rise above it... On an aside note... it has taken a while but I hoped 4th qrt 2010 would bring some momentum to falls in hp. whilst the falls are not yet pronounced, one cannot deny that over the last forthnight it appears not a day or two has gone by without some news on property prices which has not been bearish particularly every single MSM has reported on this with slightly different formats but the overwhelming message has been unanimous... expect falls/property is overpriced/mortgage rationing etc etc.. Something may just be about to happen price wise.. whether it's rapid or drawn out is the question that needs answering (particularly as this is occuring in the traditional slow period of the year for house purchases).. nevertheless I think this is a very important phase (begining) of this so called house price correction or NOT. I am certainly watching this space...closely
  6. ..we've been willing on this fear for a while now. The media have been reluctant to join in. So it depends on which side of the coin you're on. As for me I don't see no fear at all...certainly compared to 2007/2008.. then I could taste the fear. Today..nope.. sorry...... the fear is not yet being smelt..lets see if 20 Oct would at least start briging a little odour - just a little..
  7. ... well we shall know what the spending review really contains within the next few days. Basically the spending review comes down to one thing => cuts. The question is how deep would these cuts be, what areas and within what timeframe would they be implemented??? translation - how many 000's would loose out in the review and the wider economy and how would this translate to house prrice falls?? Something tells me, though, that this is not going to be the event that would make house prices go downhill "immediately"... although it's really the last throw of the dice... I have said it before and got chewed out on here but I'd say it again: I just cannot see the Govt wanting a major dip or double dip occuring in 2012 (an olympic year). Can't see it - there has to be a feel good factor entering that year or at least during that year. Point is whatever has to happen from this review 2011 is the year for it or 2013 and beyond. You already saw with child benefits cuts - that it won't come in until 2013.. you may wonder why 2013.. I know why!!!!!
  8. ...to think there was a time when it used to be 0% saved = buy/mortgage a house or save btw 5K and 10K = buy/mortgage a house 77K..lovely..why not make it 100k.... sounds better!
  9. [and that ties in with the million dollar question] .. what would trigger this desperation? However one paints it desperation has not set in - yet. This is the 4th qrt of 2010. How long do you keep waiting for this so called deperation to become the 'norm' i.e. insted of talking about it, we are living through it??????? [.and that ties in with the million dollar question]
  10. agree with the above...my part of SE London where I'm interested there are a few 3 beds in that 219,000 and below range.. and some highly priced ones seperated by literally one street or two..some of these 219000 ranged props would have been marketed at a standard 245/250K min in the peak.. anyway to think it's been 2 years + and still no sign, no concrete trend, no expected falls, no nada!! mad mad mad... The way things are, I dont think Oct 20th would provide any catalyst.. There's a thread on here questioning if in hindsight one would have jumped on the bandwagon if they knew of the 2007 falls or something to that effect........ ha well i'd changed that to in hindsight would I have jumped into the housing market in 2008 when there was real panick in the air and some great falls (3 beds going at 180/190K etc)..YES I would.. But lets's see how this plays out => the last throw of the dice SPENding REView OCt 20.. after that it's make up your mind time... keep waiting and hoping OR jump on assuming you still got a job and can get a mortgage and damn the consequences
  11. Interesting topic.... Quite a few colleagues of mine at work and a hand ful of friends drive exprnsive cars however I checked Auto trader for an indication of costs for 2nd hand cars (taking mileage into considerartion) and they are damn affordable (as a one-off cost).. so people sometimes buy these cars not factoring in the running cost... As a slight twist to the topic... work colleagues / friends tend to use their car NOT for commuting to work (I aint no CIO, CEO etc ) but mainly for weekend pleasures or evening (after work commutes) .. so how much more affordable inc running cost is this to do when they only drive their cars/4x4's etc for 2 full days (sat / sun) in a 7 day week on average..
  12. Have to say I just had to check out the website to know if it's for real... wowowow
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