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Tired of Waiting

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About Tired of Waiting

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    Too much credit + planning blockage = house price bubble

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  • Oki

  1. Surprisingly Evan Davis did ask that question, basically. Greenspan answer was kind of "I was just a powerless central banker!". It's in the R4 Today Programme linked to the OP.
  2. I've found this, 14min into it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23hjctWV0cc
  3. Yep, he got high on hubris. Another puzzle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan#Early_life_and_education
  4. Yes, I know, he's been blowing bubbles / or stopping them from bursting, for many years, I agree. BUT, I really don't think he understood the DIMENSION of the problem he was sowing. I don't know how, or why, but somehow he managed to not see what was coming - if you know what I mean (hopefully you do, coz, to be honest, I am not sure I do.) It just doesn't make sense. I can't believe he didn't see it coming, but I also can't believe he saw it and did nothing. .
  5. 54,351 new houses within 10 miles of Cambridge, but within what time frame? 1 year? 5 years? 15? And how many dwellings are there now? (Just to calculate what kind of increase these 54k new houses mean.)
  6. Crony capitalism, 13min into the full interview: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01jq25r/Business_Daily_Alan_Greenspan_on_Past_Crises_and_Future_Challenges/
  7. Or that. I had forgotten that third possibility. BTW, we've had that discussion many times before in this forum ("incompetent, bonkers or [email protected]"?) , when talking about Gordon Brown...
  8. I'm not sure about that. You may be overestimating him. You are saying that he saw it coming, but did nothing to curb it. I'm still not sure. .
  9. + 1 A couple of weeks ago I tried to find the definition or methodology of this "Need Assessment", but I couldn't find it. I had the impression that it hasn't been well defined yet. Then a friend told me about a very strong reaction from the CPRE against the inclusion of any affordability criteria in this Need Assessment... You can always trust the [email protected] from the CPRE to point to key aspects of lobbying.
  10. Surprisingly, Evan Davies does grill Greenspan a little about the bubble, but far from enough. It is still a painful listening, and may even be dangerous for some! Health warning here! On BBC Radio 4 Today Programme yesterday: 2h48min in (7 minutes long) http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03dfc82 Full interview, 17min long: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01jq25r/Business_Daily_Alan_Greenspan_on_Past_Crises_and_Future_Challenges/ Other edited versions and news about it: Alan Greenspan: Financial crisis probability was small 21 October 2013 Last updated at 10:35 BST http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24606187 Ex-Fed Reserve Chairman Greenspan says eurozone crisis far from over 21 October 2013 Last updated at 00:55 BST http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-24605296 Greenspan fears US government set for more debt stalemate 21 October 2013 Last updated at 00:53 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24602273
  11. 2015 Q4, most probable scenario: It is almost certain that interest rates will be higher than now, and with higher rates house prices will probably be lower than now. If so, by then you'll have very little equity (if at all), and be in serious trouble having to re-mortgage. IMHO a 2 year fix is a gamble with odds against you, and your family. You and your family will be much, much safer as tenants - with large savings. We have been renting for many years, have more savings than you, and we've even stopped calling it "a deposit", as we are not planning to buy any time soon - as we are in the SE, and prices here are still stupid. Sounds like you are in the SW, and IMHO prices there are bubbly too. The safest option is to stay out of these huge, gigantic leveraged bets.
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