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The Masked Tulip

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Everything posted by The Masked Tulip

  1. Financial guy I follow in the US, Rick Ackerman, thinks that housing in the US has topped for a generation. He is expecting 70% falls and worse in the vacation home market. http://www.kereport.com/2017/09/06/rick-ackerman-copper-gold-markets/ http://www.kereport.com/2017/09/13/usd-why-rick-thinks-we-could-see-120-on-the-usd-index/
  2. The US market is already in big trouble. Hearing lots of stories on US housing sites of areas like NY, Boulder, etc, that were booming just 6 months ago now being stagnant.
  3. I got Sky Broadband unlimited fibre and a good TV bundle this time last year for £24 a month. If I stay with them it goes up to over £100 a month plus I have to start paying £20 a month to BT. So I cancelled. Shocks me that people are paying out £100 a month plus for TV and Internet.
  4. Some thoughts: http://www.activetradingpartners.com/dot-com-bubble-do-over/ http://www.activetradaingpartners.com/delinquencies-pile-up-will-commodities-make-a-massive-move-soon/ http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-guns-of-august-the-trade-set-up--removing-your-rose-colored-glasses?post=145692
  5. How can we help? Do we all rush out today to buy the new £900 Samsung or do we wait for the £1200 Apple? Methinks people would be changing their phones every 12 to 24 months if phones cost £150.00 and not the price they do. Dixons will have to get on to Apple and Google to stop supporting phones older than 12 months. That will sort it.
  6. Technically and legally it is not fraud when someone says they think such and such share is worth X and then decides to sell as much of it as they can. It is just an opinion. FOXTONs are worth £25.00 a share - now come and buy all my FOXTONs shares Analysts were saying lovely things about PF in the days and weeks prior to the recent news.
  7. I think it was JP Morgan who said that the share was still worth £12.00 and so people bought the dip. Others have unkindly speculated that the banks now want rid of the stock and you will be seeing a lot of positive things said about it whlst distribution takes place.
  8. Just bear in mind that profit warnings in the past year for some retailers - Next and Tesco are two tha spring to mind - turned out to be lows and great buying opportunities for considerable bounces in the 6 months ahead. Christmas is coming so this stock SHOULD see a rise through to the end of the year. There will be pleny of buy the dippers for it in the coming hours methinks.
  9. Chickens coming home to... I think this profit warning is interesting following on from the Provident Financial debacle. People have been maxed out with cheap subprime loans to buy TV's, (Am I the only one in the UK who doesn't have a 55 inch plus TV?), huge fridges, etc, etc, but you think that the likes of Currys would be profitting from all of us. But it seems those dodgy Provident loans are going back a long time. I think we are going to see more of these warnings - Next, Debenhams and Marks will be on the list IMPO. I have been following the US retail market with stores like JC Penney and Sears - once giants of US retail - now on their knees. Many smaller operations already having gone bust. People on both sides of the Atlantic are screwed by debt and high houses prices means, well, you know the story.
  10. Carney is desperate to keep IR's low as he knows that the housing bubble would burst with rising rates. The longer he leaves though the wrost things will ultimately be. I suspect he is gambling on - or already knows - that the US will not raise further. If the US does continue to raise, as the Fed says is their current intention, then the UK will have to play catch--up eventually.
  11. Interesting comments on LSE about PB - some are from EA's. http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=PURP&share=purplebricks
  12. Don't worry - maybe they will offer Mark Carney the job as their central banker.
  13. "Stressed" Australians Struggle With Record Debts As Housing Market Overheats "People are up to their ears in mortgages,... They are all on a budget. Everyone's got all their money in houses, that's how it is."
  14. How much has mass migration into the UK by vast numbers of people from Africa and the Middle East cost the NHS bill over the past 15 years? Oh, I forgot - they are all brain surgeons.
  15. Agreed. And now it keeps vast numbers of people out of nursing, teaching and, IIRC, soon the police. These are all jobs where I believe actually being good at the job is more important than some generic and abstract qualification in Egyptology or Luvvie Studies (I use Egyptology as Swansea Uni has a course on it. It also has an excellent museum full of stuff nicked from Egypt as several Swansea rich guys went off to Egypt in the 1920's and dug up stuff. Anyhow, several years back the son of a friend of mine wanted to go study Egyptology. He fancied himself as Indiana Jones. I warned him off the pitfalls of running up student debt for something that probably would not give him work. He even visited the Egyptology museum and met graduates of the course who, working for free there, told him there were no jobs. Neither deterred him. Several years later. Huge student debt. No Indiana Jones stuff. Have no idea where he is working now. It sure ain't fighting Nazis and rescuing blonde maidens.)
  16. A US financial guy I follow - Rick Ackerman - does a daily commentary and he has been saying, for about a year, that a deflationary shock is coming. He points to things such as pension funds in the US which are basically bankrupt and do not have younger workers paying in: the US car firms doing well in recent years basically because they have lent cheap car loans and leasing to anyone and everyone but now the loans/leases are up and the cars are going back; the collapse of numerous high street store chains who have seen sales plunge; US houses in yet another bubble and, bottom line, enormous amounts of debt, baby boomers who have flourished but younger generations who are fecked. Here is his latest commentary: http://www.kereport.com/2017/05/23/trust-markets-rick-blame/
  17. Yes, hence why the gold bug folks say that gold will come into its own as the FED, BOE, ECB, etc, will be forced to do massive money printing - more and more QE. The US stock markets look ripe for a big correction to me. But they appear to be propped up everytime they start to correct. I am amazed they have not let them crash yet, used that as an excuse to say IR rises are off the table and that more QE is needed. Tesco has been interesting in the last week - on hotukdeals there have been all sorts of clearance stuff appearing for knock-down prices. Slghtly older models of things like computer hard drives, routers, sat navs, etc, etc, knocked down to a tenner or twenty quid. Looks as if they have gone through their stockrooms and basically chucked everything they can find onto the shelves. That smacks of desperation to me. Looks like, as you say, desperate for cash flow.
  18. Fascinating read. I am going to make some more cheese on toast and read it again. I keep reading on US financial forums about the US & Canadian equivalents of Debenhams are in their death throes - closing stores, etc. A financial guru, who admittedly is a big bear, has been speaking for a year about the coming collapse of the US shopping malls. First the big US s tores go and then the US malls go - but the pension funds have invested big time in the malls and many towns and cities are now totally reliant upon them. They say that the US is only X years ahead of us. I wonder how long before we start to see big out of town shopping centres in the UK close. People I follow on financial forums in the US think that the US will not be able to raise rates again for the reasons you mention. Some think that gold will soar in price as the US tries to reflate but, heck I don't know about such things. Above my pay grade. When May called the election my first thought was that, between now and then, we would see a rush of sales from retailers desperate to get people to buy during the uncertain period of an election when, apparently, people hold off from buying. Today's retail figures show that people have already held off and, this morning, we had figures out that car insurance has gone up. Next week gas/electricity is rising. Politiians want everyone to scrap their diesel car. Worrying times for most British people so I can see more people not spending in shops because their cost of living essentials are rising.
  19. Good grief - that is an amazing rise in Boohoo's share price over the past 2 years. That will teach me not to NOT have kids. I knew nothing about it. The site does not impress but clearly it is good enough to get people buying clothes from it. Year final results next week. Could be the best chance of the UK having some kind of Amazon if they get into more stuff than just clothing. Gone from a profit warning in Jan 2015 to a 1 billion company today. Never heard of it. I feel such a d*ck. (Now, now!).
  20. British retail sales posted the biggest quarterly fall in seven years during the first three months of 2017, as rising prices since last year's Brexit vote started to pressure consumers. Retail sales volumes contracted 1.4 percent in the first quarter following a 0.8 percent rise in the last three months of 2016, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. That was the biggest quarterly fall since the first quarter of 2010, and is likely to reinforce the view among many economists that household spending - the main driver of the economy - is now slowing. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKBN17N0V3
  21. I met a few Polish workers who bought yuppy style flats in TH in the past 10 years and then began to seriously regret doing so re the neighbours. I suspect some of them will be looking to get out now, if they have not done so already, and probably are very happy with the profit they have made.
  22. Is there any evidence that the batteries will last longer or is this just spin put out by a car industry that needs to convince us of this to get us to buy the cars in the first place? Every other kind of battery I know of gets dramatically worth in time. It would be a technological revolution if the car industry has created batteries that can do what other batteries, even batteries of smartphones and latops, have failed to do.
  23. Second Welsh uni job cuts for same reason. http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/education/job-cuts-been-announced-second-12828395
  24. People are saying that uranium has bottomed and that a boom in uranium prices is about to begin because electric cars, after all the huffing and puffing about other power sources, will need nuclear power stations to supply the demand.
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