Orb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Interesting one this time, and maybe not quite so easy to predict as the last couple of meetings. Inflation is clearly ticking up. We've got the shipping crisis in the Red Sea which we didn't have at the last meeting. But we've also got mortgage rates coming down, and savers rates being slashed. Bond and gilts yields are rising, and the odd lender or two have raised mortgage rates. What say you? What will happen to the base rate next Thur 1st Feb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Should be minus quarter but they'll bottle it again. 👎 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Orb said: Inflation is clearly ticking up. We've got the shipping crisis in the Red Sea which we didn't have at the last meeting. But we've also got mortgage rates coming down, and savers rates being slashed. Bond and gilts yields are rising, and the odd lender or two have raised mortgage rates. The whole spectrum of economic news and expectations seems to a bunch of paradoxes. It is all starting to make less sense. For that reason, I voted 0% no change as the BOE have little option other than to 'wait and see'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Stewy said: Should be minus quarter but they'll bottle it again. 👎 No one is biting with these desperate trolling attempts. But feel free to keep them up as it’s entertaining! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownwardSlopingPlateau Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 In consultation with Stewy, it would appear -4% is baked-in. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14stFlyer Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Next move is probably up I think. But not for a while. Voted no change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Stewy said: Should be minus quarter but they'll bottle it again. 👎 A full 2% will be nice on top of what I'm already getting on my savings. You do realize you are another one who has also been exposed for not being truthful on here about there position. You want rates to come down because your cheap fix is ending soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said: A full 2% will be nice on top of what I'm already getting on my savings. You do realize you are another one who has also been exposed for not being truthful on here about there position. You want rates to come down because your cheap fix is ending soon. No it's because minus quarter is the right thing to do to get ahead of deflation. No VI here - Bought a House with Cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 No change, but the move after is probably going to be up. The BOE didn't do the job correctly in the first place which means they'll be forced into going quite a bit higher. This will come as a 'shock' to most lemons though who believe everything the media (both MSM and social) tell them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 +0.25% to try and head off that pulse of inflation thats incoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: No change, but the move after is probably going to be up. The BOE didn't do the job correctly in the first place which means they'll be forced into going quite a bit higher. This will come as a 'shock' to most lemons though who believe everything the media (both MSM and social) tell them. I pre-empted the media's rate-cut talk. They're as much behind the curve as the BoE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 remain as is. the waters are too muddy at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 impotence, indolence, indifference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think no change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) All feels a bit dull at the moment. Jerome, the bane of overleveraged simpletons everywhere, hasn't got his meeting till next week. No pressure on Bailey then, so went no change... Edited January 24 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Huggy said: All feels a bit dull at the moment. Jerome, the bane of overleveraged simpletons everywhere, hasn't got his meeting till next week. No pressure on Bailey then, so went no change... It's 1st Feb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Necessities Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) 1 hour ago, Stewy said: I pre-empted the media's rate-cut talk. They're as much behind the curve as the BoE. I'm not convinced that the bank aren't so far behind the curve that they will end up having to taking the higher road, as you and the media talk up the benefits of the low road. but I guess none of us know for sure until after they crash the car into a big wall. Edited January 24 by Bear Necessities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think it's steady as she goes until Q2 earliest. There's upward and downward pressures. Downward seems to be the main economic tilt but guerrilla attacks on shipping etc providing some upside through longer shipping channels. I don't see this as playing a significant role longer term. US and UK incumbents requires a nice landscape prior to leadership elections. No coincidence both hitting Houthi targets. I can see more intervention and even supporting Saudi (in return for cheap oil and normalising of Israeli relations) to sort out Yemen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I voted +0.25% not because i realistically think they will raise, but I would absolutely love seeing the debt slaves and VIs implode at the news!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The BOE would stand a better chance of getting rates below current levels in 12 months time if they put interest rates up by 1% now. That was the mistake they made before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Stewy said: No it's because minus quarter is the right thing to do to get ahead of deflation. No VI here - Bought a House with Cash. Yes, but you are looking to buy many more, how many homes do you want? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) +0.25% Three members voted to raise last time so we only need two more to become more hawkish. The unexpected inflation uptick plus the ongoing Red Sea uncertainties might be just enough to do it. Edited January 24 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Cash Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, fellow said: +0.25% Three members voted to raise last time so we only need two more to become more hawkish. The unexpected inflation uptick plus the ongoing Red Sea uncertainties might be just enough to do it. I expected a raise in December. But now I’ve predicted no change. They should raise IMO. But they won’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, Huggy said: All feels a bit dull at the moment. Jerome, the bane of overleveraged simpletons everywhere, hasn't got his meeting till next week. No pressure on Bailey then, so went no change... I reckon Bailey has already been on the blower to Powell. "What's happening at the next FED meeting Jerome" "We are going to keep the rates the same Andrew because there is too much stress in the banking system but the stock markets are crying for a cut". "Andrew replies ok we will keep them the same". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, Stewy said: I pre-empted the media's rate-cut talk. They're as much behind the curve as the BoE. So, in summary - the press are all wrong, the BOE are all wrong, and you're right? OK then.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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