Reform Is the 2024 Dark Horse

[DiggerUK]

I'm not clear how Reform could be considered  better than a three legged horse in a one horse race, they would struggle to get a place

Sorry, I don't even see them getting one MP. Save your money..._

Edited March 11 by DiggerUK

[winkie]

Glad reform have reformed outside to the right of the Tory party......very many old Tory voters no longer support them as the party has drifted too far to the right ........ Far too divisive, creating problems between people when there is no problem....

[Dyson Fury]

The Guardian Sneerocracy on top form:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/11/lee-anderson-reform-party

Quote

The only element of suspense was how the big reveal would play out. Would this great Tory scalp leap out of a cake or – wait – what if they drove in in a white van?

“People’s concern and anxiety has turned to anger and fury,” Richard Tice began. “Nothing works. Britain is broken, and we all know who broke it.” Yup, I have no problem with any of that. Give him a chance, though; he’s only getting started. “There is absolute fury that the Tories have imposed on us, without any democratic consent, in complete breach of the 2019 manifesto, mass immigration.”

It wasn’t funny yet. Realistically, the bons mots wouldn’t start until 30p Lee arrived, but I still started laughing. The sheer brass neck of this oleaginous, monied blow-hard, claiming superior insight into the hardships and true feelings of the British people, seemed funny in the moment. Or maybe it was nerves, watching Tice’s hatreds build up piece by piece, starting with the easy bits (we all hate the Tories), moving through the body work (legal migrants, illegal migrants), towards the decorative, novel touches (Sadiq Khan, Hamas supporters lining London streets), until he had a working Meccano vehicle made of hate. Who doesn’t laugh when they’re nervous?

Really, what tiny, closed minds people like Zoe Williams have.   Completely unable to engage with any opposing views, to discuss or debate with them.  All they know how to do is sneer.

[Lagarde's Drift]

1 minute ago, Dyson Fury said:

The Guardian Sneerocracy on top form:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/11/lee-anderson-reform-party

Really, what tiny, closed minds people like Zoe Williams have.   Completely unable to engage with any opposing views, to discuss or debate with them.  All they know how to do is sneer.

Lmao their audience is specific, just like those of the telegraph. All have their closed minds and buy the same paper daily.

[Dyson Fury]

7 minutes ago, Lagarde's Drift said:

Lmao their audience is specific, just like those of the telegraph. All have their closed minds and buy the same paper daily.

A fair point....  but earlier this evening I watched Nigel Farage's programme on GB News.  He had a slot about "two-tier policing", contrasting the police reaction to demonstrators chanting in support of Houthis firing missiles at ships (stand around and do nothing) to the police reaction to the counter-demonstrator who unfurled a "Hamas are Terrorists" banner at a pro-Palestine march (six officers "arrested" him "for his own protection" by violently wresting him to the ground).  Farage interviewed an ex-policeman who had held a senior position in counter-terrorism, who disagreed with him on a number of points, and explained the difficulty police have in maintaining order at such events (using the analogy of a Chelsea football supporter going into the Tottenham end and shouting provocatively).  Farage and the police officer each had their say, and everybody viewing would have learned something that they did not previously know. 

The Farage programme is often like this.  Good journalism in action 😁 

[pig]

2 hours ago, winkie said:

Glad reform have reformed outside to the right of the Tory party......very many old Tory voters no longer support them as the party has drifted too far to the right ........ Far too divisive, creating problems between people when there is no problem....

its almost comical - first they evicerate the Tories of anybody competent, then they strut about in government until the population wouldn't p on them if they were on fire,  then they fck off to Reform.  I mean 😂

Musn't grumble, hopefully the conservatives can 'reform' themselves once the nutters  have left...

 

 

[Far Canal]

12 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Baby Boomer here...

I occasionally try to watch GB News to see what nonsense it is putting out as propaganda. That Richard Tice is a piece of work.

As far I can see it's a mouthpiece for the "Tory" right and the borderline fascist Reform party, beloved by xenophobes and racists.

 

From your logic here that means anyone who supports the "Left" is either stupid or corrupt. They are most likely to be a Communist who wants to imprison anyone who thinks differently to them. Oh, and you aren't allowed to have your own thoughts or actions either.

[Far Canal]

7 hours ago, Bob8 said:

My  hesitation here is that was a clear thing UKIP to campaign for. A brexit referendum.

An issue Reform has is that this is less clear, so it can be seen as the angry man shouting at cloud. "Brexit has been rubbish" is not going to work, "the Tories are not Tory enough" will only work for a small group, that is (sorry for the term) the gammon section. 

There are a clear set of policies on their website. You can either like them or not. That is the great thing about having the vote.

[dances with sheeple]

4 hours ago, Dyson Fury said:

The Guardian Sneerocracy on top form:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/11/lee-anderson-reform-party

Really, what tiny, closed minds people like Zoe Williams have.   Completely unable to engage with any opposing views, to discuss or debate with them.  All they know how to do is sneer.

"until he had a working Meccano vehicle made of hate"

Pardon? LOL, what drugs is this person on?

[Bear Necessities]

10 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

"until he had a working Meccano vehicle made of hate"

Pardon? LOL, what drugs is this person on?

They are trying to write it in the style of John Crace (?) who usually writes these comedy pieces (which are usually very tongue in cheek and poke fun at all sides), but I think he had a heart attack last week so someone else is having a go (and failing)

Edited March 12 by Bear Necessities

[Bear Goggles]

13 hours ago, pig said:

its almost comical - first they evicerate the Tories of anybody competent, then they strut about in government until the population wouldn't p on them if they were on fire,  then they fck off to Reform.  I mean 😂

Musn't grumble, hopefully the conservatives can 'reform' themselves once the nutters  have left...

 

 

It's all part of the process. How the dynamics play out after the election will be fascinating. There are a couple of options:

1. The Tories become Reform to stop the defections - If this happens the Tories can expect to settle on about 15% of the vote share I should think. Similar to what UKIP had in 2016.

2. There are a bunch more defections and the rump of the Tories expel the likes of Braverman and start a long centrist fight back, and Reform remains a fringe party.

I suspect it'll be option 1, eventually followed by option 2, but it'll probably take years to play out. FPTP means that if the Tories were to face a future election with 10-15% of the vote share they could expect to get close to zero seats. I just can't see them doing that.

Initially it will be great fun to watch, but in the longer term, democracy requires a minimum of one credible opposition party, and I'm sure there will be one, it's just whether that ends up being "The Conservative Party" or not.

 

[Bruce Banner]

14 hours ago, pig said:

its almost comical - first they evicerate the Tories of anybody competent, then they strut about in government until the population wouldn't p on them if they were on fire,  then they fck off to Reform.  I mean 😂

Musn't grumble, hopefully the conservatives can 'reform' themselves once the nutters  have left...

 

 

And the one most responsible?

 

[Far Canal]

35 minutes ago, Bear Goggles said:

It's all part of the process. How the dynamics play out after the election will be fascinating. There are a couple of options:

1. The Tories become Reform to stop the defections - If this happens the Tories can expect to settle on about 15% of the vote share I should think. Similar to what UKIP had in 2016.

2. There are a bunch more defections and the rump of the Tories expel the likes of Braverman and start a long centrist fight back, and Reform remains a fringe party.

I suspect it'll be option 1, eventually followed by option 2, but it'll probably take years to play out. FPTP means that if the Tories were to face a future election with 10-15% of the vote share they could expect to get close to zero seats. I just can't see them doing that.

Initially it will be great fun to watch, but in the longer term, democracy requires a minimum of one credible opposition party, and I'm sure there will be one, it's just whether that ends up being "The Conservative Party" or not.

 

Option 3 is that Reform overtakes the Conservative Party in expected vote share at the next General Election late summer or early autumn. This then either makes Rishi change policies dramatically, or he gets booted out, or he then calls the Election. Starmer wins the Election on a small majority (30 or so) and then the people who wanted "change" realize that Labour is just a red set of clothing for what the Conservatives were doing but are now doing more of it.

[Bear Goggles]

1 hour ago, Far Canal said:

Option 3 is that Reform overtakes the Conservative Party in expected vote share at the next General Election late summer or early autumn. This then either makes Rishi change policies dramatically, or he gets booted out, or he then calls the Election. Starmer wins the Election on a small majority (30 or so) and then the people who wanted "change" realize that Labour is just a red set of clothing for what the Conservatives were doing but are now doing more of it.

There are plenty of other options that you could think of, but they're all very unlikely. Reform aren't going past about 15%, I'm sorry, but their policies just aren't attractive to the vast majority of the electorate. 

Again, anything can change in the longer term, but between now and the election as things stand, Labour win on a very large majority, reform get about 10% of the vote and zero seats due to FPTP, and the Conservative party rips itself a new a***hole in opposition. For the scenario you've put forward to happen, there'd need to be such a massive shift in public opinion in such a short period of time, it's just not realistic.

The big problem for the Tories is about 80% of the population think they're too rightwing, and about 20% of the population think they're too leftwing. The only way they unite people is in their hatred for them.

[pig]

6 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

It's all part of the process. How the dynamics play out after the election will be fascinating. There are a couple of options:

1. The Tories become Reform to stop the defections - If this happens the Tories can expect to settle on about 15% of the vote share I should think. Similar to what UKIP had in 2016.

2. There are a bunch more defections and the rump of the Tories expel the likes of Braverman and start a long centrist fight back, and Reform remains a fringe party.

I suspect it'll be option 1, eventually followed by option 2, but it'll probably take years to play out. FPTP means that if the Tories were to face a future election with 10-15% of the vote share they could expect to get close to zero seats. I just can't see them doing that.

Initially it will be great fun to watch, but in the longer term, democracy requires a minimum of one credible opposition party, and I'm sure there will be one, it's just whether that ends up being "The Conservative Party" or not.

 

The big question then is which MPs are likely to be left ? They must be able to figure that out by now and guess at the character of the party. And even if it’s a mess the doom-mongers are probably overstating it a bit as as voters don’t disappear overnight: a term of Starmer and many  voters will be happy to flip back in protest so long as the Tories are credible enough. 

[Dyson Fury]

4 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

There are plenty of other options that you could think of, but they're all very unlikely. Reform aren't going past about 15%. 

Already up to 14% in the latest poll (10 March, before the Lee Anderson defection).  A steady trend of 1% increase every 2-3 weeks during 2024.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-march-2024/

Quote

Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 18%, two points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week. 

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 3 March in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 42% (-1)
Conservative 24% (+1)
Reform UK 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+2)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 1% (-1)

 

Edited March 12 by Dyson Fury

[Bear Goggles]

9 minutes ago, pig said:

The big question then is which MPs are likely to be left ? They must be able to figure that out by now and guess at the character of the party. And even if it’s a mess the doom-mongers are probably overstating it a bit as as voters don’t disappear overnight: a term of Starmer and many  voters will be happy to flip back in protest so long as the Tories are credible enough. 

Yeah, this is the big question. People like 30p Lee seem important now, but they are predicted to lose their seats badly at the GE. Braverman and Truss are in some of the safest seats in the country, but there are people like Mourdant who would be safe under normal circumstances but could be voted out if the current polling turns out to be accurate at the GE. 

I agree, all bets are off for 5 years time. I think the big problem for the hard/ far right in the UK is that they are attached to libertarian "Thatcher-on-steroids" style economic policies, which are unpopular with people under 65, and very unpopular with anyone under about 35. Capitalism is not very popular with those who have no chance of accumulating capital. In Europe the far right have tacked towards the radical left on economic policy, but there is no way Farage and Tice are going to do that. So can they broaden their reach from miserable old blokes to an angry and disaffected youth, as has happened in places like France and Germany? The answer to that question right now is a resounding no, but 5 years is a long time in politics.

[Bear Goggles]

21 minutes ago, Dyson Fury said:

Already up to 14% in the latest poll (10 March, before the Lee Anderson defection).  A steady trend of 1% increase every 2-3 weeks during 2024.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-march-2024/

 

12% in the poll of polls. But yes, 15%+ is entirely possible by the GE. UKIP hit 22% in one poll during the run-up to 2015 election I think.

Notice that the Lib Dems are only on 10% and are predicted to get 25+ seats. Reform will probably get none. FPTP sucks for smaller parties (by design).

Notice also that Reform have done worse than predicted in most recent by-elections. This probably partly reflects a lack of resources to mobilise on the ground at election time, which is a problem UKIP also had, especially when 650 constituencies go to vote at a GE.

In the last election Farage did a deal with the Tories and The Brexit Party (as it was then), didn't stand in key marginals, if they don't do that this time, they'll cannibalise the Tory vote and hand even more seats to Labour. The dream situation for Labour would be both the Tories and Reform polling at about 18% at the next election, it would be an absolute bloodbath for the Tories in that scenario.

[Far Canal]

2 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

12% in the poll of polls. But yes, 15%+ is entirely possible by the GE. UKIP hit 22% in one poll during the run-up to 2015 election I think.

Notice that the Lib Dems are only on 10% and are predicted to get 25+ seats. Reform will probably get none. FPTP sucks for smaller parties (by design).

Notice also that Reform have done worse than predicted in the most recent by-elections. This probably partly reflects a lack of resources to mobilise on the ground at election time, which is a problem UKIP also had, especially when 650 constituencies go to vote at a GE. (Rochdale had a poor choice of candidate who had a blemished past and allegations of unfair hustings, intimidation and physical threats. Previous couple of by-elections had seen out performance).

In the last election Farage did a deal with the Tories and The Brexit Party (as it was then), didn't stand in key marginals, if they don't do that this time, they'll cannibalise the Tory vote and hand even more seats to Labour. The dream situation for Labour would be both the Tories and Reform polling at about 18% at the next election, it would be an absolute bloodbath for the Tories in that scenario.

Updated your post.

Many of the public do not follow politics. A good number in a G.E. wouldn't change their vote from what they always have done. To think that those people would bother to know what policies, or manifesto details, there are would be laughable.

A good dose of a Labour government you'd think would wake them up a bit. But it won't. Continued stagnation and decline upcoming for 5 more years on the current 2024 election trajectory.

Reform are looking at 2029 to get the ground teams in place. What the Conservatives do in that time period will be interesting.

BTW, what Reform policies do you see as "unappetising to the majority of voters"?

And, hard right is the B.N.P. FYI. 

[Confusion of VIs]

On 02/02/2024 at 17:25, nightowl said:

If labour want the redwall seats back Reform may hurt then too if they take any of these seats.

Either way the MSM may have to report on the percentage of votes they get even if it results in no actual seat wins.

Of course they will report on it. But who cares, the vastly more credible SDP got as many votes as Labour but only around 15 seats and quickly faded away.

Reform isn't even a party, its just a handful of rich blokes who are trying to buy influence. 

It will be fun watching all the skeletons come out from the closets of the 600 self funding "candidates" they need to recruit for the election.  

Edited March 12 by Confusion of VIs

[Bear Goggles]

1 hour ago, Far Canal said:

Updated your post.

Many of the public do not follow politics. A good number in a G.E. wouldn't change their vote from what they always have done. To think that those people would bother to know what policies, or manifesto details, there are would be laughable.

A good dose of a Labour government you'd think would wake them up a bit. But it won't. Continued stagnation and decline upcoming for 5 more years on the current 2024 election trajectory.

Reform are looking at 2029 to get the ground teams in place. What the Conservatives do in that time period will be interesting.

BTW, what Reform policies do you see as "unappetising to the majority of voters"?

And, hard right is the B.N.P. FYI. 

Sure, there’s always an excuse for why party x didn’t do well in the last election. I remember the continual excuses by the Corbynites. It was always some extraordinary circumstance that meant the last loss was unrepresentative and victory was just around the corner.  

What policies to people find unattractive? Well Reform don’t really have any detailed policies. They have unfunded tax cuts, which weren’t very popular when the Tories tried it. They have scrapping net zero, which again isn’t very popular outside of their own bubble, and they have bringing immigration down to zero with no plan of how to do it, and magically ending NHS waiting lists. Plus all the Brexity take back control and sovereignty guff, which everyone is now sick of. So a bit like the Tories really.

But it’s not really the policies that put people off, as you say, most people don’t follow policies. It’s the people and the messaging. Culture warrior blowhards moaning about LTNs or whatever on GB News has niche appeal. About 15% of the electorate max. 

IMO the only way a party like Reform can become more popular is to widen their appeal to women and younger voters, but how they do that is a tough one. The Front Nationale in France have recently become quite anti-capitalist, that’s a clue I think. 

[Gbob]

20 hours ago, Bear Necessities said:

They are trying to write it in the style of John Crace (?) who usually writes these comedy pieces (which are usually very tongue in cheek and poke fun at all sides), but I think he had a heart attack last week so someone else is having a go (and failing)

Sounded more like the style of Jeremy Clarkson

Edited March 13 by Gbob

[Dyson Fury]

11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Reform isn't even a party, its just a handful of rich blokes who are trying to buy influence. 

Nonsense.

https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7931

[pig]

22 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

And the one most responsible?

 

Kind of lol  - I'd say he exploited the situation. People voted for him, some colleagues still support him. Look at starry eyed Dorries or Cummings weird and cynical role. The broader currents were social media spiked populism, UKIP and 'austerity'.

[pig]

11 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

Sure, there’s always an excuse for why party x didn’t do well in the last election. I remember the continual excuses by the Corbynites. It was always some extraordinary circumstance that meant the last loss was unrepresentative and victory was just around the corner.  

What policies to people find unattractive? Well Reform don’t really have any detailed policies. They have unfunded tax cuts, which weren’t very popular when the Tories tried it. They have scrapping net zero, which again isn’t very popular outside of their own bubble, and they have bringing immigration down to zero with no plan of how to do it, and magically ending NHS waiting lists. Plus all the Brexity take back control and sovereignty guff, which everyone is now sick of. So a bit like the Tories really.

But it’s not really the policies that put people off, as you say, most people don’t follow policies. It’s the people and the messaging. Culture warrior blowhards moaning about LTNs or whatever on GB News has niche appeal. About 15% of the electorate max. 

IMO the only way a party like Reform can become more popular is to widen their appeal to women and younger voters, but how they do that is a tough one. The Front Nationale in France have recently become quite anti-capitalist, that’s a clue I think. 

"Nationalism"  + "Socialism" ?