PeanutButter Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) Your estimate of where UK inflation will be in 2024 Q2? Just had a search and seeing everything between 0.9 and 17 for this time next year. Edited April 21, 2023 by PeanutButter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) Between 10-15% because when we see more banks fail this year they will turn the money printers into overdrive again to bail them out and this will push inflation higher. Edited April 21, 2023 by Tony_Teacake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Higher than 2%, but how high, I've no idea. Probably 10% still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawdon Bwown Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 At least double the targeted rate, probably triple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 41 minutes ago, PeanutButter said: Your estimate of where UK inflation will be in 2024 Q2? I would expect CPI to fall to something like 5-6% later this year, and be around 5% at that point. You have asked for RPI, which I'd expect to be a little higher at 6-7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 Any chance of neg? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Between 1 and 25%. 🙂 I love to look back at the incorrect forecasts made on this site and by the BOE. I'm going to make a guess of 20%. Hyperinflation is about to begin!!! Inflation expectations are now becoming embedded, people are beginning to realise that they need to quickly dispose of their fiat currency as it's becoming more and more worthless by the day. No level of interest rates is going to put an end to this inflation. The higher rates go and people see it's not working, they will panic leading to higher levels of inflation. This time next year we will have started on the slippery slope to hyperinflation with rates of 20% leading to 50% by the end of 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AAA Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 If the BOE will continue similar low interest rate policies the UK inflation will still be above 10%. And it is in case of the stable pound exchange rate and oil price trending at the current level. If pound weakens or oil price shoot up the inflation will jump to 15% or above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomadd Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 4.2379535787843565% Or thereabouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 2 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Any chance of neg? Negative growth, or negative inflation? Yes to the first. Hell no to the second! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armus Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Still 10%. Only transitory though and I will continue to “look through” it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 3 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Any chance of neg? There's always a CHANCE but it's a very small one. Only 1 negative RPI year in the last 40 or more and no CPI negatives I believe. But if the entire banking system collapsed and wasn't bailed out, then yes you'd see steep deflation due to the debt destruction a la the 1920s. But I wouldn't bet on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Your estimate of where UK inflation will be in 2024 Q2? Just had a search and seeing everything between 0.9 and 17 for this time next year. 5.6% for CPI. I think inflation will get down to 5-6% fairly easily this year just due to gas prices. But I can't see much hope to get back to 2% until the BoE get tougher Edited April 21, 2023 by henry the king Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 5 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Any chance of neg? Only if they put house prices in the basket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Inflation rate (RPI) for 2024 Q2 I am predicting a RPI inflation rate by end of second quarter 2024 of between 20% to 25%. Hopefully no more. By this time the BOE will have to take inflation seriously and the base rate will be rising fast. This is when we will see a house price crash/correction for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 56 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: Inflation rate (RPI) for 2024 Q2 I am predicting a RPI inflation rate by end of second quarter 2024 of between 20% to 25%. Hopefully no more. By this time the BOE will have to take inflation seriously and the base rate will be rising fast. This is when we will see a house price crash/correction for sure. If we get a deflationary event, and then they helicopter money on a covid esq scale then its possible, but until that time inflation is falling from its highs, as it is in the rest of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 15 hours ago, PeanutButter said: Any chance of neg? Only if the decide to include house prices in the calculation, which IMHO they should have been doing all along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 (edited) 6% core inflation. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/core-inflation-rate Edited April 22, 2023 by winkie Wrong thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 At a guess, 4-6% seems fair. There are some transient causes to inflation and others that remain. Sunak will claim he is a genius. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 No idea. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/22/federal-reserve-ecb-bank-of-england-inflation/ "The sad thing is there is no reason to be here. If policymakers had started raising interest rates earlier we wouldn't be in this world of second best where there is no good policy action. “Economists tell you once you're no longer in the world of first best policy, then every action you take has consequences.” Of course it raises the question WHY were central banks so slow to react. The answer is that simple isn't it. It's the precious. It's the house prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 If there has been pressure on pay and pensions this year.....even greater pressure next year. Pressure on living costs will not going away by next year...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprite Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 For Q2 2024, a lot will depend on energy prices and the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war. I suspect we will be below 10% in headline terms but still significantly higher than the 2% rate. A shot in the dark I would say between 4% to 6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 I am estimating 6-8% - but it may well spike up again in Q3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Si1 said: No idea. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/22/federal-reserve-ecb-bank-of-england-inflation/ "The sad thing is there is no reason to be here. If policymakers had started raising interest rates earlier we wouldn't be in this world of second best where there is no good policy action. “Economists tell you once you're no longer in the world of first best policy, then every action you take has consequences.” Of course it raises the question WHY were central banks so slow to react. The answer is that simple isn't it. It's the precious. It's the house prices. Common sense tells you: don't go to war with your principal energy supplier! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Si1 said: No idea. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/22/federal-reserve-ecb-bank-of-england-inflation/ "The sad thing is there is no reason to be here. If policymakers had started raising interest rates earlier we wouldn't be in this world of second best where there is no good policy action. “Economists tell you once you're no longer in the world of first best policy, then every action you take has consequences.” Of course it raises the question WHY were central banks so slow to react. The answer is that simple isn't it. It's the precious. It's the house prices. Wed have had epic inflation no matter what, due to the helicopter money thats was dropped during covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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