Flat Bear Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, henry the king said: Currently they have the data for a 0.5% rise in September but it is a long way off. 4 weeks exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 UK Interest Rates May Need to Rise to 4%, Andrew Sentance Says Former BOE policy maker says the BOE is ‘behind the curve’ Inflation surged more than expected to 10.1% in Jul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 35 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: 4 weeks exactly. Yeh but its 1 set of GDP data, a set of employment data and a set of inflation data. Previous experience has shown any of those being less inflationary and they will use it as an excuse even if the other 2 are flashing red lights. All Bailey needs is an excuse. Literally any excuse. Of those 3 sets of data, one of them is likely to provide it for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 22 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Missed this today.. Buy buy or bye bye? On 17/08/2022 at 18:16, scottbeard said: They said at the last meeting they EXPECTED inflation to go up to 13% by the autumn so being 10% now hardly merits an emergency meeting! You make consistently quality posts 10 hours ago, Dreamcasting said: I'm really not sure why people are now concerned about house prices at this point. It won't just be the housing market that takes a deep dive. Your job, your savings, your pension, your investments, your own standard of living and overall happiness goes down with it. In any time of upheaval, 2007, Covid etc there's been great opportunities. 9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: It's all in the timing. What's the time broken clock? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: What's the time broken clock? Here we go again . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Here we go again . Tick tock Bruce... The time for the trolls to realise how right we were is coming soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlooker Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/18/interest-rates-must-hit-6pc-tame-inflation-says-founding-bank/ Interest rates must hit 6pc to tame inflation, says founding Bank of England rate-setter Willem Buiter says policy will need to be "seriously restrictive" to reach 2pc target Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, onlooker said: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/18/interest-rates-must-hit-6pc-tame-inflation-says-founding-bank/ Interest rates must hit 6pc to tame inflation, says founding Bank of England rate-setter Willem Buiter says policy will need to be "seriously restrictive" to reach 2pc target 😂 Its good 6 news day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, onlooker said: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/18/interest-rates-must-hit-6pc-tame-inflation-says-founding-bank/ Interest rates must hit 6pc to tame inflation, says founding Bank of England rate-setter Willem Buiter says policy will need to be "seriously restrictive" to reach 2pc target Plebs being primed to apply whatever lube they have (if any) before the buttf*cking commences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: 😂 Its good 6 news day It could herald a return to savings rates of circa 7+% on a 5 year fix. Those were the days . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 11 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: Here we go again . Glad you feel the same way. 11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Tick tock Bruce... The time for the trolls to realise how right we were is coming soon. I was half joking, but you have been saying this for a long time. When it eventually happens (and it will) you'll say you told us so. You did, you told us lots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: Glad you feel the same way. Are you planning another tirade against adopting the safe approach and keeping cash in FSCS protected savings accounts? Because try as you may, you will not convince me, a pensioner, to invest my cash lifetime savings in property or shares, too risky, particularly in the current economic climate. Your "Bull" posts should contain an investment disclaimer! Edited August 19, 2022 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 34 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Are you planning another tirade against adopting the safe approach and keeping cash in FSCS protected savings accounts? Because try as you may, you will not convince me, a pensioner, to invest my cash lifetime savings in property or shares, too risky, particularly in the current economic climate. Your "Bull" posts should contain an investment disclaimer! Tirade? I was pointing out cash doesn't perform and isn't a place to put money in the medium to long term. Don't tkae my word for it, look at pretty much any investment advisor's POV. If you're ok losing 10% to inflation as the cost for that safety then fine. It's your money, and I'm not giving you investment advice I'm talking core principles. But, alas, no. I was pointing out that your 'here we go again' comment might well be directed at TCoN since we have been hearing about this looming 'crash' since 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: Tirade? I was pointing out cash doesn't perform and isn't a place to put money in the medium to long term. Don't tkae my word for it, look at pretty much any investment advisor's POV. If you're ok losing 10% to inflation as the cost for that safety then fine. It's your money, and I'm not giving you investment advice I'm talking core principles. But, alas, no. I was pointing out that your 'here we go again' comment might well be directed at TCoN since we have been hearing about this looming 'crash' since 2009. Attempting to mitigate inflation by investing in shares or property risks a hefty capital loss on top of the inflationary loss. Investment Disclaimers – The Best Free Disclaimer Template! Edited August 19, 2022 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Looks like the Banks will start lifting rates for savers from Sept ish Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Attempting to mitigate inflation by investing in shares or property risks a hefty capital loss on top of the inflationary loss. Investment Disclaimers – The Best Free Disclaimer Template! I am well aware of the risks. It's a choice of a guaranteed loss of 10% per annum, or the risk that a diverse portfolio stops paying dividends and loses capital. The question to answer is what are your goals? Why are you holding that cash? New car? Unforeseen repairs to house? Holidays? Grand kids? Care? Work out your investment horizon and plan accordingly. You mentioned 15 years in the post you were discussing this last time. BoE shows that £ has lost 27% to inflation since 2007 up to 2021: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator Meanwhile the FTSE has lost less than 17% to inflation over that period EXCLUDING DIVIDENDS : https://www.statista.com/statistics/261764/annual-development-of-the-ftsenull-index/ You'll also note that 2007 was a high point in the FTSE illustrating that even if you got very unlucky with putting it all in in one go (never do this, pound cost averaging is the right way) you'd still out perform cash. If you include those dividends you are up.... massively. Ultimately it depends on your goals and objectives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Unmoderated said: I am well aware of the risks. It's a choice of a guaranteed loss of 10% per annum, or the risk that a diverse portfolio stops paying dividends and loses capital. The question to answer is what are your goals? Why are you holding that cash? New car? Unforeseen repairs to house? Holidays? Grand kids? Care? Work out your investment horizon and plan accordingly. You mentioned 15 years in the post you were discussing this last time. BoE shows that £ has lost 27% to inflation since 2007 up to 2021: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator Meanwhile the FTSE has lost less than 17% to inflation over that period EXCLUDING DIVIDENDS : https://www.statista.com/statistics/261764/annual-development-of-the-ftsenull-index/ You'll also note that 2007 was a high point in the FTSE illustrating that even if you got very unlucky with putting it all in in one go (never do this, pound cost averaging is the right way) you'd still out perform cash. If you include those dividends you are up.... massively. Ultimately it depends on your goals and objectives. https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/245108-banks-looking-to-limit-cash-withdrawals/&do=findComment&comment=1103916387 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 (edited) For the average man on the street, "investing" is gambling. People also seem to forget that past performance is not indicative of future results, and that statement holds true be it the stock market or holding cash. Personally, I think anyone going all-in on the stock market at this time is a complete idiot. I guess people need to decide for themselves if they can afford to lose potentially large amounts of wealth over a relatively small time period and for that wealth to not be recovered. There are far too many world issues today to be able to predict what happens next. It could be that the tables have turned and stocks get smashed badly. If we're in an "everything bubble", markets are in for some serious pain over the coming years, if not decades. I think also people need to stop insisting to others that they're losing 10% of their cash to inflation. Everyone has they're own personal interest rate - mine is nowhere near 10%. If wages suddenly go up, that would be a bigger concern, however that would be accompanied by very large interest rate rises which would also need to be passed onto to savers. Edited August 19, 2022 by Dreamcasting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: For the average man on the street, "investing" is gambling. People also seem to forget that past performance is not indicative of future results, and that statement holds true be it the stock market or holding cash. Personally, I think anyone going all-in on the stock market at this time is a complete idiot. I guess people need to decide for themselves if they can afford to lose potentially large amounts of wealth over a relatively small time period and for that wealth to not be recovered. There are far too many world issues today to be able to predict what happens next. It could be that the tables have turned and stocks get smashed badly. If we're in an "everything bubble", markets are in for some serious pain over the coming years, if not decades. I think also people need to stop insisting to others that they're losing 10% of their cash to inflation. Everyone has they're own personal interest rate - mine is nowhere near 10%. If wages suddenly go up, that would be a bigger concern, however that would be accompanied by very large interest rate rises which would also need to be passed onto to savers. Nor mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/245108-banks-looking-to-limit-cash-withdrawals/&do=findComment&comment=1103916387 On 13/08/2022 at 13:01, Bruce Banner said: If you want a short term 100% safe home for up to £2m it's an easy, and in my opinion perfectly sensible, option. Which is better... Stick £2m into a single high street bank at 2 or 3%? Stick £2m into shares and hope the markets don't crash tomorrow? Buy £2m worth of property and hope the price, in the short term, goes up not down? Or stick your £2m into NS&I and mitigate the loss to inflation by 1.2%? Although splitting it up into £85K FSCS chunks and finding better rates would be my preferred option. Lots of work though. So many here think that one must always make money, but sometimes that's not possible without taking unacceptable risks so it's best to accept losing some to inflation and mitigate that loss as best as possible. Personally, I'm happy to make hay while the sun shines and not be greedy. It's worked for me since I've been retired. You say it yourself. 15 years it not short term though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 16 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: Here we go again . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: You say it yourself. 15 years it not short term though. Where did I say 15 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 GBP USD now 1.18. they will be forced to raise to avoid it dropping more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandalorian Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Might want to not have so much cash in the bank... https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/245209-bank-bail-in-anyone/ Money in the bank is as safe as houses. (See what I did there?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mandalorian said: Might want to not have so much cash in the bank... https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/245209-bank-bail-in-anyone/ Money in the bank is as safe as houses. (See what I did there?) The way I read that it has nothing to do with bail-ins, more like imposing a limit on certain accounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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