Markets pricing in 3.5% rates by February

[Bruce Banner]

58 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Oh sure - I’m not advising having basements full of tinned beans, but rather things that are expensive, small and prone to inflation are ideal to buy in bulk early.  Stamps, razor blades etc

You’ve lost the plot!  I’m not saying you should “invest” in loo roll 🙄 I’m saying that Bruce’s approach of buying things in bulk is a much better short term inflation hedge than cash or investments.

But not things that are bulky, cheap and hard to store which is pointless.  Things like (as above) stamps, razor blades, medicines etc.  Assuming you use stamps every year - Christmas cards or whatever - buying £100 of them now rather than paying £120 for them next Christmas seems like a risk free 20% return to me.

There are so many things that I buy at knockdown prices when I see them and hold them until needed. For example, last week I bought a couple of 12.5kg zinc anodes for £60 each, normal price £140 each, which I won't need for a couple of years (I suspect the supplier had a cash flow problem and needed to release cash quickly).

 

[Lagarde's Drift]

5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Oh sure - I’m not advising having basements full of tinned beans, but rather things that are expensive, small and prone to inflation are ideal to buy in bulk early.  Stamps, razor blades etc

You’ve lost the plot!  I’m not saying you should “invest” in loo roll 🙄 I’m saying that Bruce’s approach of buying things in bulk is a much better short term inflation hedge than cash or investments.

But not things that are bulky, cheap and hard to store which is pointless.  Things like (as above) stamps, razor blades, medicines etc.  Assuming you use stamps every year - Christmas cards or whatever - buying £100 of them now rather than paying £120 for them next Christmas seems like a risk free 20% return to me.

I actually think people's behaviour is changing and we will use less stamps and razor blades.  

[Lagarde's Drift]

5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Oh sure - I’m not advising having basements full of tinned beans, but rather things that are expensive, small and prone to inflation are ideal to buy in bulk early.  Stamps, razor blades etc

You’ve lost the plot!  I’m not saying you should “invest” in loo roll 🙄 I’m saying that Bruce’s approach of buying things in bulk is a much better short term inflation hedge than cash or investments.

But not things that are bulky, cheap and hard to store which is pointless.  Things like (as above) stamps, razor blades, medicines etc.  Assuming you use stamps every year - Christmas cards or whatever - buying £100 of them now rather than paying £120 for them next Christmas seems like a risk free 20% return to me.

I actually think people's behaviour is changing and we will use less stamps and razor blades.  

[scottbeard]

5 hours ago, Lagarde's Drift said:

I actually think people's behaviour is changing and we will use less stamps and razor blades.  

Maybe - they're just examples anyway.  Substitute your favourite small, expensive, regularly used, easy to store item.  Could be anything.

[Nomadd]

6 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Substitute your favourite small, expensive, regularly used, easy to store item.  Could be anything.

Weed. 

[Bruce Banner]

50 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Maybe - they're just examples anyway.  Substitute your favourite small, expensive, regularly used, easy to store item.  Could be anything.

Being retired, with unlimited time on our hands, has it's cost benefits.

My wife loves shopping, but always finds bargains, nearly everything in our fridge has a yellow label on it because she knows the time that every shop updates their prices of items with short dates and is there, ready and waiting. That alone probably reduces our food bill by at least 25%. If she won the EuroMillions tomorrow, she'd still be in Tesco and Sainsbury's at yellow label time, it's what she does. Clothes for the grand kids, always top quality and fashionable, always less than half price.

I mostly shop online and am always on the lookout for things that we'll need at sometime in the future. 

One thing that really winds me up is loss leaders. Our water company is trying to flog us drain cover for 79p per month, "buy now, it's going up to £1 a month soon". So you look at the small print and see that whether you pay 79p or £1, your direct debit will go up to £13.99 a month after a year. People must actually fall for this nonsense.

Other annoyances. Mobile phone contracts with a low ticket price that go up 50% after the first 3 months, and the difficulty of finding the cash price of big ticket items... cars are always advertised at monthly repayment or lease prices.

We're not skinflints, we just operate like any good company buyer would, common sense really.

 

[Lagarde's Drift]

8 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Maybe - they're just examples anyway.  Substitute your favourite small, expensive, regularly used, easy to store item.  Could be anything.

Ditto. People's behaviour is changing. 

[Bruce Banner]

Looking for a home for this year's ISA allowances, I see that 3.1% 5 year fix, with 180 day loss of interest for early withdrawal, is available now, full FSCS protection up to £85k.

I'll leave any decision to nearer 5th April, but it's heading in the right direction.

[spyguy]

19 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Oh sure - I’m not advising having basements full of tinned beans, but rather things that are expensive, small and prone to inflation are ideal to buy in bulk early.  Stamps, razor blades etc

You’ve lost the plot!  I’m not saying you should “invest” in loo roll 🙄 I’m saying that Bruce’s approach of buying things in bulk is a much better short term inflation hedge than cash or investments.

But not things that are bulky, cheap and hard to store which is pointless.  Things like (as above) stamps, razor blades, medicines etc.  Assuming you use stamps every year - Christmas cards or whatever - buying £100 of them now rather than paying £120 for them next Christmas seems like a risk free 20% return to me.

I think stamps, as a useful store of value, ha long gone.

Razors???? Move to a DE razor. I did, a few years back, on recommendation from a barber. I was getting way too many ingrowing hairs.

DE razor and poof! suddenly something that cost a fair whack (£10/m) suddenly dropped to pennys and gives a much better shave.

Gillette etc are a total con. The postal shaving company are just a slightly cheaper than Gillette con.

You need to hedge and invest according to your lifestyle. Or shift your lifestyle.As a vegi,. I dont really notice much in the way of food inflation.

Ditto - not replacing my car in covid means the current petrol hell is passing me by.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob8]

On 17/08/2022 at 11:37, LetsBuild said:

Isn’t the governor of the BoE meant to write a letter to the treasury every time inflation is over 2% or something? I’d love to have a read of those over the last year, I reckon he just puts the same thing each month but in bigger font and more exclamation marks as the months roll by. I like to think he writes them in crayon to match his capability as a competent economist.

My assumption (I do not understand these things, but nor do most writing confidently on here) is that they are aware of the risk of inflation, but also aware of the risk of the economy going down the toilet. Furthermore, many of the causes for inflation (brexit, Ukraine, Covid supply chains) will not be altered by interest rates.

Or, it could be they know nothing and the world's experts are all on HPC

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

My assumption (I do not understand these things, but nor do most writing confidently on here) is that they are aware of the risk of inflation, but also aware of the risk of the economy going down the toilet. Furthermore, many of the causes for inflation (brexit, Ukraine, Covid supply chains) will not be altered by interest rates.

Or, it could be they know nothing and the world's experts are all on HPC

A go 1/3 is caused by the fall in the £. IR hikes will fix that.

Another large part is the HPI, which has stopped flow of labour. Again, BoE fingers are all other this one.

The BoE started down the road of various fkheaded policies, aimed at undoing the mess of 2008 which was down to poor UKGOV + BoE supervision of the banks.

If you think inflation is mainly external then have a look at Swiss prices -

https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi

 

 

[Bob8]

5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

A go 1/3 is caused by the fall in the £. IR hikes will fix that.

Another large part is the HPI, which has stopped flow of labour. Again, BoE fingers are all other this one.

The BoE started down the road of various fkheaded policies, aimed at undoing the mess of 2008 which was down to poor UKGOV + BoE supervision of the banks.

If you think inflation is mainly external then have a look at Swiss prices -

https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi

I am certainly not suggesting it is entirely or all external. My questioning is whether the BoE are not as well informed on economic matters as the average HPC poster (I have see the Covid thread as a measure of how deluded people are) or that they are as focused on UK house prices as people on a forum called housepricecrach.co.uk.

Ultimately, this is not my field at all. I certainly accept that their ideal will not be the ideal for people like me, which is another matter.

[spyguy]

6 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I am certainly not suggesting it is entirely or all external. My questioning is whether the BoE are not as well informed on economic matters as the average HPC poster (I have see the Covid thread as a measure of how deluded people are) or that they are as focused on UK house prices as people on a forum called housepricecrach.co.uk.

Ultimately, this is not my field at all. I certainly accept that their ideal will not be the ideal for people like me, which is another matter.

The BoE has utterly failed.

Since being granted independence, 2008 saw ~80% of banks by lending bow up, followed by the highest inflation in 40 years.

Why didnt the BoE eat its own dog food - capping pensions at 2%?

 

 

[Bruce Banner]

31 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The BoE has utterly failed.

Since being granted independence, 2008 saw ~80% of banks by lending bow up, followed by the highest inflation in 40 years.

Why didnt the BoE eat its own dog food - capping pensions at 2%?

 

 

I don't understand...  What pensions? 2% of what?

[scottbeard]

6 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I don't understand...  What pensions? 2% of what?

2%pa pension increases he means, in line with what they are tasked with ensuring inflation is.

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

I think stamps, as a useful store of value, ha long gone.

Razors???? Move to a DE razor. I did, a few years back, on recommendation from a barber. I was getting way too many ingrowing hairs.

DE razor and poof! suddenly something that cost a fair whack (£10/m) suddenly dropped to pennys and gives a much better shave.

Gillette etc are a total con. The postal shaving company are just a slightly cheaper than Gillette con.

You need to hedge and invest according to your lifestyle. Or shift your lifestyle.As a vegi,. I dont really notice much in the way of food inflation.

Ditto - not replacing my car in covid means the current petrol hell is passing me by.

 

For about the fourth time - I’m not suggesting people invest in stamps.  It was just an example of something that in my own life I use a lot of and makes sense to buy earlier to beat price rises.

Apply the concept to your own life rather than pick holes in my personalised exampleS.

 

[Bruce Banner]

Just now, scottbeard said:

2%pa pension increases he means, in line with what they are tasked with ensuring inflation is.

I wasn't sure about that because the BoE doesn't set the state pension increment, surely?

[scottbeard]

3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

2%pa pension increases he means, in line with what they are tasked with ensuring inflation is.

(Ie the Bank of Englands own pension scheme should have 2%pa pension increases.  It’s a silly idea and not even permissible under current pensions legislation but that’s what he is saying)

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

I wasn't sure about that because the BoE doesn't set the state pension increment, surely?

No - he means their own pension scheme for BoE employees 

[Bruce Banner]

1 minute ago, scottbeard said:

No - he means their own pension scheme for BoE employees 

A drop in the ocean in the overall scheme of things.

[Bruce Banner]

11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

For about the fourth time - I’m not suggesting people invest in stamps.  It was just an example of something that in my own life I use a lot of and makes sense to buy earlier to beat price rises.

Apply the concept to your own life rather than pick holes in my personalised exampleS.

 

Everyone seems to want to pick on an example and dive down that rabbit hole.

You spend a lot on stamps and razor blades, whereas I use an electric razor and email, but I do spend a lot on bits and bobs necessary to maintain a boat so that's what I stock up on.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Bruce Banner

[scottbeard]

9 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Everyone seems to want to pick on an example and dive down that rabbit hole.

You spend a lot on stamps and razor blades, whereas I use an electric razor and email, but I do spend a lot on bits and bobs necessary to maintain a boat so that's what I stock up on.

Indeed.  People seem to be saying “stocking up early during times of high inflation is bad because I don’t use razor blades”

Just stock up in what you. DO use!! 🙄😆

[spyguy]

42 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I don't understand...  What pensions? 2% of what?

If the BoE - and UKGOV - had any faith in the ability to maintain prices @ 2% -+1% then the should have capped pension increments at 2%.

AS it stands, UKGOV/BoE have lost control of prices and the large number of people of people whove be paid £££ to regulate banks and prices are getting an expensive bail out of index linked pensions, at the extreme cost of the UK tax payer worker whove had to pay for it all.

 

[spyguy]

33 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

(Ie the Bank of Englands own pension scheme should have 2%pa pension increases.  It’s a silly idea and not even permissible under current pensions legislation but that’s what he is saying)

Its as silly as aiming for price stability.

Going forward, UKGOV pension are going ot be massive problem - theyve been grossly underfunded and the actuary behind PAYE pension is nuts.

 

[scottbeard]

4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Its as silly as aiming for price stability.

Going forward, UKGOV pension are going ot be massive problem - theyve been grossly underfunded and the actuary behind PAYE pension is nuts.

Agreed and Agreed.