Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[jonb2]

13 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

I said "if he is accurate then it paints a very different picture to the one we are being told "

stop listening to the voices in your head 

Let's see. Who would YOU trust more?

1) The voices in your head.

2) A senior Trump and Putin supporter.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

2 hours ago, Maghull Mike said:

 

Wow, that's painful if even half true.
If we make it to next spring, we will all know.

[Staffsknot]

2 hours ago, Maghull Mike said:

 

You know you just posted the guy who called for Russia to annex the Donbas as well during the Crimea crisis and said Putin was being too gentle on Ukraine during the start of the war as war crimes emerged.

He was also full on behind that second Iraq war you spoke about and criticised those prosecuting it for not hitting Iraq harder...

He got binned for any political roles outside of 'adviser' as he called Muslims in Europe 'invaders'.

Regular on RT too said he admires Putin.

Always worth a bit of due diligence where the search algo takes you as @jonb2 was trying to explain

[Casual-observer]

7 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Let's see. Who would YOU trust more?

1) The voices in your head.

2) A senior Trump and Putin supporter.

Anyone else starting to get downfall vibes on this thread. 

Why isn't the Russian Ruble in the toilet yet..we were all told the sanctions would do it and it hasn't happened. 

 

[Lucky Larry]

5 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Anyone else starting to get downfall vibes on this thread. 

Why isn't the Russian Ruble in the toilet yet..we were all told the sanctions would do it and it hasn't happened. 

 

The HPC Azov battalion in emergency meeting with the little Corporal presiding 

[Casual-observer]

6 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

The HPC Azov battalion in emergency meeting with the little Corporal presiding 

LOL

They announce oil caps and OPEC jointly tell them to p1ss off....it's just absolute bunker mentality. 

[Freki]

59 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

You cannot show a single post from me supporting Trump because I've never made one anywhere 

more baseless smears Zzzzzzzzz

Can you show me the post where you denounce Putin s threat of using nuclear weapons?

[Peter Hun]

5 hours ago, Casual-observer said:

On October 5, it was reported that NATO reconnaissance satellites went out of order after the Russians used advanced laser weapons. As a result, the West lost the ability to control the movement of part of Russia's nuclear weapons.

According to experts, the Russian army used the Peresvet laser system. The system is capable of disabling satellites at a distance of up to 1,500 kilometers.

 

Explains Elon Musk's conciliatory tone.

Also explains Father Christmas and the Easter Bunny.

[zugzwang]

39 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

@zugzwang oops you may need some glasses

"China is among several countries to have moved back towards a coal-focused energy supply, despite ambitious emissions reduction pledges, amid a global crisis exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict"

Oh and you made a song and dance that it was policy caused crisis by supporting Ukraine.

China had outages for a blue sky at a sport event - policy choice.

Just like the Shanghai outages were caused by a mix of demand, lost hydro and the aforementioned PRC energy intensity reduction plans and carbon reduction plans then going back to coal.

You just choose to ignore awkward stuff as usual.

That's why the insults come out because you picked a hill and found out it was a dung heap.

Again:

This year's blackouts were caused by an extremal heat emergency. A seventy year outlier! Had this not occurred there was a an abundant supply of coal generation available locally to meet the annual non-emergency, summertime peak demand. Yes, the Chinese have made long-term carbon neutrality promises, and unlike the Americans take the subject of climate change seriously, but clearly they are not going to cripple their economy in the short-term to meet them.

Nothing to do with the economic suicide that Western Europe is now committing in the Ukraine.

 

[Lucky Larry]

Just now, Freki said:

Can you show me the post where you denounce Putin s threat of using nuclear weapons?

Can you show me the post where I have supported it or any use of nuclear weapons . You and your pals have been trying for weeks to find a link to me supporting Putin and have failed miserably , there are people on here supporting Zelensky's call to use nukes against Russia so I suggest you concentrate on their stupidity and sabre rattling

[Up the spout]

22 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Anyone else starting to get downfall vibes on this thread. 

Why isn't the Russian Ruble in the toilet yet..we were all told the sanctions would do it and it hasn't happened. 

 

You can't trade the Ruble or stocks on the Moscow exchange, their values are all make believe.

Where we are seeing the sanctions bite is on the battlefields. Russian forces are a shadow of what they were, partly due to long-term corruption and incompetence, but also they can't replace a lot of their high tech gear because the US will sanction the hell out of any company that sells to them. They've got as bad as taking any parts and bodging them into the existing equipment, even chips out of white goods like washing machines. 

The Russian military machine is cannibalising anything to keep the war effort going, and soon the Russian people are going to be unable to replace their white goods, cars, TVs, PCs, and anything with a bit of tech in it. Add on huge food inflation, the loss of over 1 million men of working age and hundreds of foreign companies, and it'll be a basket case in a few years.

[zugzwang]

31 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Anyone else starting to get downfall vibes on this thread. 

Why isn't the Russian Ruble in the toilet yet..we were all told the sanctions would do it and it hasn't happened. 

 

The American free market/free trade economic model is a degenerate research program. Mathematised ideology masquerading as science.

[Freki]

12 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

Can you show me the post where I have supported it or any use of nuclear weapons . You and your pals have been trying for weeks to find a link to me supporting Putin and have failed miserably , there are people on here supporting Zelensky's call to use nukes against Russia so I suggest you concentrate on their stupidity and sabre rattling

Nah you don't get to denounce Biden as soon as he opens his mouth and then not comment on Putin and still maintain you have a neutral stance. 

Alright, you are doing Putin s bidding once again. You come here to support Putin end of story

[Casual-observer]

10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The American free market/free trade economic model is a degenerate research program. Mathematised ideology masquerading as science.

Next prediction, the yanks won't even blink as they turn around and waddle off as Europe sits in a freezing bed after an 8 month vigorous thrashing from it's most dear and closet ally. 

They might get a courteous call back to "sort out your own mess" as they exit the door. 

[Flat Bear]

17 hours ago, Grayphil said:

He is being pretty smart In my opinion, he has already got the backing behind scenes to do this in some form I assume, 

Essentially, it's Ukraine Sabre Rattling the same way Russia did.

Very impressive and timely in my opinion.

His point is that this will go back to the people of Russia one way or another, and this soundbite just shows Russia is on losing ground over all of this 

Yes, I think you are right. Keep the pressure on.

If Putin did such a strike or started to prepare.

There could be a possibility of a strike on any weapons that are ready to be deployed or as soon as they have been deployed. This is what I think is most likely an immediate strike back especially if within range. Everything esculating 1000%. I would suggest the Ukrainians and allies have already got a response organised. They would now see this as a very high probability within a matter of weeks or months. 

[Lucky Larry]

6 minutes ago, Freki said:

Nah you don't get to denounce Biden as soon as he opens his mouth and then not comment on Putin and still maintain you have a neutral stance. 

Alright, you are doing Putin s bidding once again. You come here to support Putin end of story

Good , so I won't be hearing from you again , bye

[Trampa501]

Amazing, isn't it? Russia  forces have been defeated around Kharkiv, forced back from Izium and Lyman, and yet we get a troll army trying to claim here they're currently triumphant. If so, why the need for that mobilisation?

[zugzwang]

Just now, Casual-observer said:

Next prediction, the yanks won't even blink as they turn around and waddle off as Europe sits in a freezing bed after an 8 month vigorous thrashing from it's most dear and closet ally. 

They might get a courteous call back to "sort out your own mess" as they exit the door. 

Today's econ numbers out of the US are very revealing. Despite the Fed's rate hikes the US economy is still red hot! That super growth is being made in oil and LNG exports at Europe's considerable cost.

[Casual-observer]

19 minutes ago, Up the spout said:

You can't trade the Ruble or stocks on the Moscow exchange, their values are all make believe.

Where we are seeing the sanctions bite is on the battlefields. Russian forces are a shadow of what they were, partly due to long-term corruption and incompetence, but also they can't replace a lot of their high tech gear because the US will sanction the hell out of any company that sells to them. They've got as bad as taking any parts and bodging them into the existing equipment, even chips out of white goods like washing machines. 

The Russian military machine is cannibalising anything to keep the war effort going, and soon the Russian people are going to be unable to replace their white goods, cars, TVs, PCs, and anything with a bit of tech in it. Add on huge food inflation, the loss of over 1 million men of working age and hundreds of foreign companies, and it'll be a basket case in a few years.

Except that's not how the sanctions were ever sold to us.

You all masturbated furiously on this thread how the whole economy would implode, their banks would tumble, the Ruble would be worthless.

None of it has happened. 

There is a huge gaping gap in the sanction wall, it's called China. 

[Flat Bear]

3 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Yes, I think you are right. Keep the pressure on.

If Putin did such a strike or started to prepare.

There could be a possibility of a strike on any weapons that are ready to be deployed or as soon as they have been deployed. This is what I think is most likely an immediate strike back especially if within range. Everything esculating 1000%. I would suggest the Ukrainians and allies have already got a response organised. They would now see this as a very high probability within a matter of weeks or months. 

How much force has the allies got? When the gloves are taken off I think the force against the depleted Russian forces will be total overkill. The US actually underestimate their own power.

Just needs Putin to do something stupid to see this happen.

[Lucky Larry]

2 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

How much force has the allies got? When the gloves are taken off I think the force against the depleted Russian forces will be total overkill. The US actually underestimate their own power.

Just needs Putin to do something stupid to see this happen.

How much did they have in Afghanistan ? what was the outcome ?  Both the West and the USSR left with their tail between their legs. Force isn't always the deciding factor 

[Flat Bear]

Just now, Lucky Larry said:

How much did they have in Afghanistan ? what was the outcome ?  Both the West and the USSR left with their tail between their legs. Force isn't always the deciding factor 

You don't half talk a load of b###ocks

[Up the spout]

3 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Except that's not how the sanctions were ever sold to us.

You all masturbated furiously on this thread how the whole economy would implode, their banks would tumble, the Ruble would be worthless.

None of it has happened. 

There is a huge gaping gap in the sanction wall, it's called China. 

Russia has no free journalism - no one is allowed to even mention the war (I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it).

For the past six months, independent and opposition journalists in Russia have been prevented from covering the activities of Russia’s armed forces by the threat of 15 years in prison. The law adopted on 4 March was just the first in a series of anti-media laws.

On 22 March, this disinformation law was extended to Russian state bodies operating abroad – the president and the president’s staff, the Federal Security Service (FSB), embassies, the federal tourism agency and so on. The earlier version of this disinformation law, which has existed since 2019, already punished “socially significant” unreliable information on such matters as ruble exchange rate falls, price rises, epidemics and natural disasters. In practice, any information that does not come from the government can be banned. Only information provided by the Russian defence ministry is considered reliable. Why do that, eh?

More than 4,000 people, including journalists, have been prosecuted under this law in the past six months, and 224 of them are facing a possible prison sentence, according to the latest report by OVD-Info, a Russian human rights NGO. Posting a link on social media to a major international media story about Russian army massacres in the Ukrainian city of Bucha, for example, is all it takes to incur prosecution.

In another innovation, the prosecutor general’s office can now legally suspend any media outlet (print, radio, TV or website), or prevent its registration without reference to a court. Under amendments adopted on 30 June, the suspension can be immediate and without prior notice, and therefore without giving the media outlet a chance to delete the disputed content to avoid this sanction. These amendments target publications containing any information considered “false,” “disrespectful towards the authorities”; discrediting the armed forces or state bodies, or calling  for demonstrations or sanctions, for propaganda and for defending “extremism.”

In the event of repeated offences – if the media outlet is found to have published more than one example of content of this kind – the extrajudicial suspension can continue indefinitely. And if a media outlet’s registration is found to be invalid, other people can establish a clone of the media – liable to disseminate propaganda – under the same name the next day, the MMDC warns. At the same time, foreign media can be shut down as a retaliatory measure if they are registered in countries that have imposed restrictions on Russian media. As the Russian state TV broadcaster RT is now banned in the European Union, this means any European media can now be targeted in Russia.

A law adopted on 29 June consolidated  the stigmatising “foreign agent” label, which can be imposed on any person who has received international support or is “under foreign influence” and who carries out political activities, collects information on military and military-technical activities, disseminates messages to the general public or participates in their creation. Journalists are therefore on the front line of this legislation. 

A total of 172 journalists and journalistic entities are currently on the “foreign agents” register, as against no more than a dozen before December 2020. Those on the register must declare that they are “foreign agents” at the top of everything they publish. The “Foreign agent” status aims to discredit media and journalists in the eyes of their readers. It also imposes a heavy administrative burden, particularly the obligation to provide the justice ministry with statements of all income and expenses. Failure to comply with these obligations is punishable by fines or imprisonment of up to five years.

Other vaguely-worded amendments adopted in the past six months aim to censor and intimidate journalists under the guise of protecting Russia's national interests. Journalists now risk up to eight years in prison for “collaborating” with an international organisation, for example. This vague concept could also include the use by journalists of foreign sources. They also risk seven years in prison for “activities undermining state security,” including revealing state secrets or participating in an organisation classified as “undesirable.” 

This classification applies to several Russian investigative media – including The Insider, Vazhnye Istorii (Important Stories) and Proekt – and to Bellingcat, an independent international collective of researchers, investigators and journalists. Any mention of these media and any reference to their investigations into such subjects as the Panama Papers and Putin's alleged assets is a crime in Russia punishable by imprisonment. Legislators also broadened the definition of actions regarded as espionage, which is punishable by up to 20 years in prison. Under another amendment, carrying an ad for an international Internet company that does not comply with the requirements of Russian law, such as Google or YouTube, is punishable by a fine of up to 6 million rubles (around 100,000 euros).

No journalist is immune from serious charges and several are arrested every week and subjected to interrogations and searches. Andrei Soldatov, an investigative journalist who specialises in reporting on Russia’s special services, has been the subject of criminal proceedings for “false information” about the war since 17 March. He wrote about the purge within the FSB department that provided Vladimir Putin with data on Ukraine on the eve of the invasion. 

Sergei Mikhailov, the owner of Listock, a small independent newspaper in Eastern Siberia’s Altai Republic, was arrested on 14 April and is facing up to 15 years in prison for publishing articles about the Bucha massacre and other subjects related to the invasion of Ukraine. Mikhail Afanasiev, the editor of the online magazine Novy Focus, who was arrested on 13 April, is also charged with “false information” in connection with an article about riot police in Khakassia (Eastern Siberia) who refused to take part in the war.

Hundreds of individuals working in the media sphere have fled Russia because of the direct threat posed by these new laws, which have compounded its already repressive legislation (see our report on Internet censorship). At least 27 media have closed or suspended their activities in Russia in the past six months, according to OVD-Info. They include such leading foreign media as the BBC, CNN and CBC/Radio Canada, which left the country after 4 March because of the danger to their Russian employees and contributors. 

According to Roskomsvoboda, a Russian NGO that combats Internet censorship, no fewer than 7,000 websites have been blocked since the start of the war. They include Russia’s most popular news site, Meduza, which RSF unblocked by creating a mirror site, and dozens of other media, including Deutsche Welle, The New Times and Novaya Gazeta Europe. Yandex, the leading search engine for Russian speakers, has meanwhile tightened its censorship, removing independent media from its search results.

In tandem with this wartime censorship, Russia’s government-dominated mainstream media  strictly follow the Kremlin-imposed editorial line, and propaganda is ubiquitous on the most-watched state TV channels such as Rossiya 1 and Perviy Kanal, which have increased the airtime devoted to news programmes. “We are not the aggressor", Rossiya 1 star anchor Vladimir Soloviev (the subject of Western sanctions) said on 21 June, in a tirade castigating “Ukrainian Nazis” and threatening “traitors” and Western countries. “Zelenskiy is the last president of Ukraine because there will be no more Ukraine after him”, he said in an earlier warmongering tirade on 8 April.

Why would they feel the need to do that, eh?

[Lucky Larry]

1 minute ago, Flat Bear said:

You don't half talk a load of b###ocks

So both the West and the USSR were triumphant in Afghanistan , that's almost as delusional as the little Corporal claiming they found WMDs in Iraq before the invasion . oh dear 😂

[Lucky Larry]

2 minutes ago, Up the spout said:

For the past six months, independent and opposition journalists in Russia have been prevented from covering the activities of Russia’s armed forces by the threat of 15 years in prison

Have you heard of a man called Julian Assange ? Have you heard of Chelsea Manning ?  As I have repeatedly pointed out "the first casualty in war is the truth"