70PC Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 30 minutes ago, pig said: The thing is Putin publicly rubbished the US warnings of a potential attack as attempts to derail his re-election. Dictators in earlier conflicts could have kept that to themselves. Putin must hate social media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 29 minutes ago, 70PC said: Dictators in earlier conflicts could have kept that to themselves. Putin must hate social media. He seems to get away with it, must be something about Russians, wither don’t know or don’t care Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bumble bee Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Poland have been caught unprepared once again Poland demands explanation after accusing Russia of violating its airspace Poland has demanded an explanation from Moscow after saying a Russian cruise missile aimed at Ukraine entered its territory. “On March 24 at 4:23 a.m., there was a violation of Polish airspace by one of the cruise missiles launched tonight by the long-range aviation of the Russian Federation,” the Operational Command of the Polish armed forces said on X. “The object flew into Polish [air]space near the village of Oserdow (Lublin Voivodeship) and spent 39 seconds in it,” Operational Command said. “It was observed by military radar systems throughout its flight.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/24/europe/poland-activates-aircraft-russia-attacks-lviv-intl/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Russian propaganda source full of claims that this is an American/British attack because ISIS is an American organisation. If so, why did Putin still ignore the warning from the Americans that "their" ISIS were going to attack? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Larry Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, Grayphil said: and donated to the coke goblin zelensky There I think I got it right, how many Rubles to I get? Your pal Zelensky tans more coke than your pal Dave , nice to see such a simple request for evidence of a claim made is met with your usual tirade of " conspiracy" quotes . I think the red pill would push you over the edge , don't take it ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 23 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Russian propaganda source full of claims that this is an American/British attack because ISIS is an American organisation. If so, why did Putin still ignore the warning from the Americans that "their" ISIS were going to attack? Putin long ago lost the ability to sounds even remotely plausible. After all, why bother when you can just arrest or murder anyone who calls out your BS for what it is? I suspect he's got so used to that that he doesn't even understand any more just how idiotic he sounds to the rest of the world every time he opens his mouth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Putins slaves just lap it up. Russia is fighting ISIS in Syria, I guess they can claim they are fighting Americans now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 59 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Russian propaganda source full of claims that this is an American/British attack because ISIS is an American organisation. If so, why did Putin still ignore the warning from the Americans that "their" ISIS were going to attack? Just put Larry Whataboutery on ignore or your head will explode I think what we've learnt here is no one individual can manage the 'narrative' of All Reality to their own tiny limited purpose. Too complicated, too many unforseen consequences... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 44 minutes ago, Riedquat said: Putin long ago lost the ability to sounds even remotely plausible. After all, why bother when you can just arrest or murder anyone who calls out your BS for what it is? I suspect he's got so used to that that he doesn't even understand any more just how idiotic he sounds to the rest of the world every time he opens his mouth. Theres a potential problem inside Russia though as well. Its a bit of a Prigozhin moment, not fatal but a moment where alarming risks and cracks manifest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Russia is playing wackamole now, one problem pops up and they try to get it but another diverts their attention Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Questions to ask are: How accurate are these figures? How much did Russia have on Feb 24th 2022? So how much has Russia got left? How quickly can these items of equipment and personnel be replaced? Has the quality improved or got worse? How much more can Russia afford to lose? From my own understanding these figures are "conservative estimates" although I believe they are close to the actual figure, maybe 10%? maximum 20% down from the actual figure. Russia has a current estimated total population of around 140 million with Ukraine having a total population of 44 million many are now living outside the country. So head to head before demographics etc comes into play Russia has a 3 to 1 advantage and if they could keep it as a straight forward, old fashioned soviet war of attrition they would have a definite and obvious advantage. Ukraine are not playing ball with this and are allowing Russia to gain very little ground at very high costs whilst concentrating on attacking key Russian infrastructure and logistics On the other hand Ukraine has lost less than 40,000 personnel and have actually increased their arsenal in every area. We are currently hearing that Ukraine is on the back foot as Russian artillery is outgunning the Ukrainians 8 to 1 as the Ukrainians fall back and consolidate positions. I am quite sceptical on the Ukrainian explanations, I do not believe them. It seems they are using this to continue to get the aid and equipment from the west mainly the US. It is easy to understand why Ukraine is doing this as by "allowing" Russia to gain small amounts of land at very high costs they will drain the Russians slowly but surely at the same time looking to stretch out the front line within Russia itself. The US especially are stepping back and saying these tactics are nothing to do with us and go as far as saying blowing up refineries is a bad idea, you couldn't make that one up could you. The plan seems to be working and they are not interfering with Putin as he continues to make this mistake. At some point Russia will weaken to such an extent they will get real attacks from within and externally as various factions and countries take chunks of the wounded bear. How long before we see real evidence of this? I was wrong just over a year ago as I had thought there would be numerous internal factions and possible trouble with India, Japan and even China as well as attacks from ISIS and the Syrians. I think this is the new plan and the US may well sit back and watch the fall of Russia without needing to get itself involved. Putin is just to stupid to see what is actually happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Larry Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 11 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: How accurate are these figures? From my own understanding these figures are "conservative estimates" although I believe they are close to the actual figure, maybe 10%? maximum 20% down from the actual figure. Ukraine has lost less than 40,000 personnel Firstly these figures are from Ukraine so unlikely to be "conservative" and if you think the real fig is 520k Russian dead and less than 40k Ukrainians you're being ridiculous , thats approx 14 Russians killed for every one Ukrainian , If these figs were anywhere close to being accurate then Nato and Zelensky wouldn't be in panic mode and press ganging 50 yr olds for the front line and they would never of lost Avdiivka or Bakhmut , I mean seriously 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayphil Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, Flat Bear said: Questions to ask are: How accurate are these figures? How much did Russia have on Feb 24th 2022? So how much has Russia got left? How quickly can these items of equipment and personnel be replaced? Has the quality improved or got worse? How much more can Russia afford to lose? From my own understanding these figures are "conservative estimates" although I believe they are close to the actual figure, maybe 10%? maximum 20% down from the actual figure. Russia has a current estimated total population of around 140 million with Ukraine having a total population of 44 million many are now living outside the country. So head to head before demographics etc comes into play Russia has a 3 to 1 advantage and if they could keep it as a straight forward, old fashioned soviet war of attrition they would have a definite and obvious advantage. Ukraine are not playing ball with this and are allowing Russia to gain very little ground at very high costs whilst concentrating on attacking key Russian infrastructure and logistics On the other hand Ukraine has lost less than 40,000 personnel and have actually increased their arsenal in every area. We are currently hearing that Ukraine is on the back foot as Russian artillery is outgunning the Ukrainians 8 to 1 as the Ukrainians fall back and consolidate positions. I am quite sceptical on the Ukrainian explanations, I do not believe them. It seems they are using this to continue to get the aid and equipment from the west mainly the US. It is easy to understand why Ukraine is doing this as by "allowing" Russia to gain small amounts of land at very high costs they will drain the Russians slowly but surely at the same time looking to stretch out the front line within Russia itself. The US especially are stepping back and saying these tactics are nothing to do with us and go as far as saying blowing up refineries is a bad idea, you couldn't make that one up could you. The plan seems to be working and they are not interfering with Putin as he continues to make this mistake. At some point Russia will weaken to such an extent they will get real attacks from within and externally as various factions and countries take chunks of the wounded bear. How long before we see real evidence of this? I was wrong just over a year ago as I had thought there would be numerous internal factions and possible trouble with India, Japan and even China as well as attacks from ISIS and the Syrians. I think this is the new plan and the US may well sit back and watch the fall of Russia without needing to get itself involved. Putin is just to stupid to see what is actually happening. I agree with a lot of this post, but sadly I think Ukraine has lost a lot more than these published numbers. Would love to be wrong however. But overall I agree with the general premise that you state, it makes a lot of sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, Flat Bear said: Questions to ask are: How accurate are these figures? How much did Russia have on Feb 24th 2022? So how much has Russia got left? How quickly can these items of equipment and personnel be replaced? Has the quality improved or got worse? How much more can Russia afford to lose? From my own understanding these figures are "conservative estimates" although I believe they are close to the actual figure, maybe 10%? maximum 20% down from the actual figure. Russia has a current estimated total population of around 140 million with Ukraine having a total population of 44 million many are now living outside the country. So head to head before demographics etc comes into play Russia has a 3 to 1 advantage and if they could keep it as a straight forward, old fashioned soviet war of attrition they would have a definite and obvious advantage. Ukraine are not playing ball with this and are allowing Russia to gain very little ground at very high costs whilst concentrating on attacking key Russian infrastructure and logistics On the other hand Ukraine has lost less than 40,000 personnel and have actually increased their arsenal in every area. We are currently hearing that Ukraine is on the back foot as Russian artillery is outgunning the Ukrainians 8 to 1 as the Ukrainians fall back and consolidate positions. I am quite sceptical on the Ukrainian explanations, I do not believe them. It seems they are using this to continue to get the aid and equipment from the west mainly the US. It is easy to understand why Ukraine is doing this as by "allowing" Russia to gain small amounts of land at very high costs they will drain the Russians slowly but surely at the same time looking to stretch out the front line within Russia itself. The US especially are stepping back and saying these tactics are nothing to do with us and go as far as saying blowing up refineries is a bad idea, you couldn't make that one up could you. The plan seems to be working and they are not interfering with Putin as he continues to make this mistake. At some point Russia will weaken to such an extent they will get real attacks from within and externally as various factions and countries take chunks of the wounded bear. How long before we see real evidence of this? I was wrong just over a year ago as I had thought there would be numerous internal factions and possible trouble with India, Japan and even China as well as attacks from ISIS and the Syrians. I think this is the new plan and the US may well sit back and watch the fall of Russia without needing to get itself involved. Putin is just to stupid to see what is actually happening. US are anxious about the refineries as so far they've already blown up 12% causing global price spikes. Russia running short of troops as Putin reluctant to mobilise more: looking for an excuse for 'total war', to allow more mobilisation, hence 90% election farce and the rash accusations over the Moscow attacks. 3:1 is the classic attack:defence ratio - though no good if Ukraine doesn't have any weapons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 11 hours ago, Flat Bear said: Questions to ask are: How accurate are these figures? How much did Russia have on Feb 24th 2022? So how much has Russia got left? How quickly can these items of equipment and personnel be replaced? Has the quality improved or got worse? How much more can Russia afford to lose? From my own understanding these figures are "conservative estimates" although I believe they are close to the actual figure, maybe 10%? maximum 20% down from the actual figure. Russia has a current estimated total population of around 140 million with Ukraine having a total population of 44 million many are now living outside the country. So head to head before demographics etc comes into play Russia has a 3 to 1 advantage and if they could keep it as a straight forward, old fashioned soviet war of attrition they would have a definite and obvious advantage. Ukraine are not playing ball with this and are allowing Russia to gain very little ground at very high costs whilst concentrating on attacking key Russian infrastructure and logistics On the other hand Ukraine has lost less than 40,000 personnel and have actually increased their arsenal in every area. We are currently hearing that Ukraine is on the back foot as Russian artillery is outgunning the Ukrainians 8 to 1 as the Ukrainians fall back and consolidate positions. I am quite sceptical on the Ukrainian explanations, I do not believe them. It seems they are using this to continue to get the aid and equipment from the west mainly the US. It is easy to understand why Ukraine is doing this as by "allowing" Russia to gain small amounts of land at very high costs they will drain the Russians slowly but surely at the same time looking to stretch out the front line within Russia itself. The US especially are stepping back and saying these tactics are nothing to do with us and go as far as saying blowing up refineries is a bad idea, you couldn't make that one up could you. The plan seems to be working and they are not interfering with Putin as he continues to make this mistake. At some point Russia will weaken to such an extent they will get real attacks from within and externally as various factions and countries take chunks of the wounded bear. How long before we see real evidence of this? I was wrong just over a year ago as I had thought there would be numerous internal factions and possible trouble with India, Japan and even China as well as attacks from ISIS and the Syrians. I think this is the new plan and the US may well sit back and watch the fall of Russia without needing to get itself involved. Putin is just to stupid to see what is actually happening. Broadly agree. Ukraine telegraphed previous counter offensive intentions ridiculously and Russia obviously defended effectively against this. Subterfuge is the order of the day. Also to make European nations commit more as it's unreasonable to lean on the US too heavily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Has Coma Joe lost control of energy prices again? Crude is already on a tear thanks to the self-defeating refinery attacks and now natty gas looks like joining the party. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Attacks-Natural-Gas-Storage-Site-in-Ukraine.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 10 hours ago, pig said: US are anxious about the refineries as so far they've already blown up 12% causing global price spikes. Russia running short of troops as Putin reluctant to mobilise more: looking for an excuse for 'total war', to allow more mobilisation, hence 90% election farce and the rash accusations over the Moscow attacks. 3:1 is the classic attack:defence ratio - though no good if Ukraine doesn't have any weapons. Seems Ukraine is doing what it can with its limited resources, the refinery attacks are possibly intended to put pressure in Russia and also the US. Higher prices would likely make the US voters sit up and ask what their politicians are doing to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 19 hours ago, Grayphil said: No, you are correct, Ukriane hasn't sunk 2 more ships, the Black Sea Fleet is fine Putin also made some very sensible points, obviously the attackers were Ukraine backed, It was completely 100% Ukrainian aggression, and obviously Russia has no issues with isis. Apparently the Banderite Ukrainian Islamic Nazis were heading back to the Ukranian caliphate, where the Russians were going to let them through the border so they could worship satin, Bioweapons, Bandera, the WEF, flat earth and would stream all of this live on main stream media propaganda via hunter Bidens laptop that Nuland stole and donated to the coke goblin zelensky There I think I got it right, how many Rubles to I get? You forgot they were viewing it in their villa in Italy with Obama and Clinton and the chief of Mossad, Osama Bin Laden, Taylor Swift and Elvis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 21 hours ago, pig said: The other odd thing pointed out was why did they try to escape by running toward the Russian army ? Is the front actually quite open somehow ? Or hypothesis: disaffected Tajiks, recruited from the Russian army ? There are claims they are foreigners but could be a backlash at recruiting of minorities for Russia's mobilisations. Ironically apparently the FSB concluded it was IS quite quickly but were drowned out by the loony rigade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 17 hours ago, bumble bee said: Poland have been caught unprepared once again Poland demands explanation after accusing Russia of violating its airspace Poland has demanded an explanation from Moscow after saying a Russian cruise missile aimed at Ukraine entered its territory. “On March 24 at 4:23 a.m., there was a violation of Polish airspace by one of the cruise missiles launched tonight by the long-range aviation of the Russian Federation,” the Operational Command of the Polish armed forces said on X. “The object flew into Polish [air]space near the village of Oserdow (Lublin Voivodeship) and spent 39 seconds in it,” Operational Command said. “It was observed by military radar systems throughout its flight.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/24/europe/poland-activates-aircraft-russia-attacks-lviv-intl/index.html Poland deliberately chooses not to engage these missiles because to do so would provide Russia with sigint and the reaction times - its why they are doing it now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 39 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Has Coma Joe lost control of energy prices again? Crude is already on a tear thanks to the self-defeating refinery attacks and now natty gas looks like joining the party. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Attacks-Natural-Gas-Storage-Site-in-Ukraine.html You could get China to ask Russia to stop invading Ukraine and leave or is that too complex for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Larry Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: You could get China to ask Russia to stop invading Ukraine and leave or is that too complex for you? Could you get the UK to ask the US to stop invading Syria and leave or is that too complex for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Larry Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 19 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: Ironically apparently the FSB concluded it was IS quite quickly but were drowned out by the loony rigade Was it quicker than the US solving the death of Navalny 😂 they couldn't even solve the death of Epstein in their own prison but could solve the death thousands of miles away in Siberia , or so they say . Loony Brigade right enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 19 hours ago, satsuma said: Russia in bother here again, losing ships, moving to vulnerable rail options. Having to crack down on Muslims. Losing oil production capacity. Meanwhile not managing to make much progress in Ukraine. If only Putin had 450,000 more men to defend against Islamists like normal countries do But no he went off and started the largest war in Europe following the Nazi playbook to the letter Worlds smallest violin playing here, Russia will be an even more culturally, economically, militarily, technologically and scientifically retarded shithole as time passes Eventually ending up in civil war when emperor dies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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